Who's gonna fall?
Laynce Nix is hitting way more balls out of the park than you'd expect and on the ones he's not hitting out he's getting on base at a rate that's probably unsustainable.
Also watch out
Jerry Hairston who's putting up his second highest BABIP since 2004 while striking out more than usual. Given his age it could be a real rough crash.
Who looks like he might crash but probably won't?
While Mike Morse may seem like an easy target, his numbers aren't terribly out of line with his career ones, sample sizes being what they are. A slight dip is more expected.
Who's gonna rise?
Werth and Zimmerman are both well under expectations for BABIP and HR% rates. Now Zimm could be injured and Werth could be broken, but I'd bet on big second halves for both.
Nope. Pudge or Desmond have a chance but I think Pudge has fallen off his cliff and Desmond's previous numbers were the ones not to be trusted.
Espinosa and Ramos?
Well we don't really know what those guys are gonna do. You're talking 3 months of data here.
What about pitching? Who's cruising for a bruising?
Clippard, Storen, Kimball, Mattheus all have out of whack BABIPs, and Clippard's LOB % is crazy.
That sounds like the whole bullpen
Pretty much. Maybe Sean Burnett will pitch better. But then again, that's 50/50 to be for someone else.
And the starters?
They are pretty much right on-line. Twist my arm and I'd expect ZNN (more HRs) and Gorzelanny (more hits and more runners scoring... for as long as he's out there) to get slightly worse and Marquis (fewer hits) to get slightly better. Livan is right on target and I never ever bet against John "Brow's he do it?" Lannan.
I'd expect a slight increase in offense with a big dip in relief pitching. So... about the same wins and losses as in the first half but more blowout wins and late losses than in the first half. 70 games left so.. 33-37? 79-83 overall? Pending deals and call-ups of course.