I'm driving to NY today so I'll be on the road for most, if not all, of the Nats game. SO PLEASE WIN
At best I say it's a toss-up. Any advantage the Nats have in fielding, relief, being at home, is mitigated by Lohse vs Detwiler. Not that Lohse is THAT much better but he is enough so anyone can win this game.
Does this strategy give the Nats the best chance at winning the series? I guess. Let's say you like short rest Gio better than Detwiler. Well then you might put your odds at winning each game as
Game 4 : Gio : 60%
Game 5 : Det, et. al : 55% (I like the Nats pen to be a strength)
as opposed to
Game 4 : Det : 50%
Game 5 : Gio : 70%
so your chance of winning the series increased in the latter from 33% to 35%. Yeah these numbers are just guesses but the point of it is there. Even if you like Gio better than Detwiler the Nats do have a better chance at winning it all in the scenario they are going with.
Of course I say who cares? The increase is marginal at best (unless there is something to suggest short-rest Gio may be a train-wreck) and anything can happen in any game so when it comes to a decider - I say just get there and then worry about what to do.
Allright - I'm off. Good luck Nats.