I was a little worried going into the Marlins series that we wouldn't be able to really evaluate the Nats pitching based on what happened in the series. A line-up that no one was scared of to start the year losing three of their top 5 hitters and also a guy that they hoped would break out? That's weak. But I figured having Aguilar and Dickerson with a couple other starters in a line-up that was scoring was enough and even if one of those guys got cold it would be like facing a terrible major league line-up. You do that sometimes. The problem is the Nats never faced Aguilar and Dickerson in the same line-up over the weekend. Dickerson sat out Friday and Saturday, Aguilar rested on Sunday. The effect was now the Nats pitchers were facing a bunch of guys you could only describe as AAAA. They held them in check but major league pitchers should hold minor league talent in check. There really is nothing to see here.
The bats on the other hand - they faced some real pitching. You can say something about them and what you can say is that they are hitting much better. Or really they are built different now and that has woken up the bats. Harrison and Turner are hitting but so is the returning Zimm, and the call-up Yadiel Hernandez. Gomes is hot and Schwarber and Robles aren't terrible. There you go - seven guys doing ok or better and a functional offense. That can't last (usually you sit around 5 hitting well depending on the talent and I think 5 is right for this team) but it doesn't have to. It only has to last until Soto comes back. Six doubles and two homers in the last couple games. That'll do.
The Nats are .500 now and it shouldn't be a surprise. We had them pegged as a WC contender and a high 80s win team. Losing Soto and Strasburg hurts but also makes them about a .500 team. Add in a little luck (5-2 in one run games) and a schedule break and it makes sense to me that things have evened out. This week plus will be an important run for the Nats - Braves and Phillies sets and taking on a now back to being good Yankees team. You can imagine some wild swings of results from that.
7 comments:
Thanks Harper. What is your assessment of Castro at this point? Interesting (to me at least) that you didn't even mention him in your run through of the hitters yet he plays every day.
Fielding played a role in the series, perhaps making up for the continued miserable base running. Turner is holding down SS at an all-star level and Castro is playing 3rd better than might have been expected. There were some game-changing double plays in all three games. Defensive metrics rate the team highly, but for me they are also passing the eye test.
Its true that they were pitching against an AAAA line-up. Still, you have to like Scherzer's attacking approach to the game. Getting first-strikes, working ahead of the batters, getting quick outs. Not what we usually see from him.
@Nattydread...I think what you are saying is that we should make sure Scherzer's wife is due to give birth right after every start. Give him motivation to get the game finished fast. Not sure that's possible, so let's brainstorm...what's a good creative alternative? How about free McDonald's french fries any time Max can get there before three hours after first pitch? Ooh....or maybe a free box of Sprinkle's cookies!!!
With Max, and I guess even Lester (though it was his first start back from injuries and a long layoff - so any decent result is a positive sign), I agree with Harper that it was hard to learn much from this series.
But Corbin has been such a disaster that a very solid game against even a AAAA is a positive sign. I am nowhere near done worrying about him, or anything like that, but if you're telling me that you didn't learn anything new from this datapoint, then you're telling me you had complete confidence in Corbin going into that game. And, well, I'll just say I did not have such complete confidence.
Logically, I can see why the Mets and Braves have 0.500 or worse records, but emotionally, I'm unprepared for how the Nats, without Soto, are tied for first 24 games in. They are basically playing as expected but somehow that is competitive!? Will the Braves and Mets continue playing like this? Fangraphs projections now think Braves will win 82,Nats and Phillies 79, and give 18%,12%,10% chances of wild card, respectively. Mets still projected for 91 wins and 75% to take division.
@Anon - Agreed, Corbin seemed to be locating his breaking pitches a bit better and his velocity was up. Maybe there was a mechanical tweak that miraculously fixed things? I don't know, but the peripherals around Corbin's performance looked very promising
I don't understand how it's possible that the Nationals are in the position they are in currently, but given the circumstances they need to take advantage of it these next two weeks. Win the series against the Braves, don't get swept by the Yankees, and win the series against the Phillies. Something like 6-3 should be the goal, but I'd take 5-4.
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