Swept. That's not fun. And by an in division opponent. That's no good. Instead of starting to poke the rapidly coming to temperature Braves team with a fork, the Nats play let the Braves back in the thick of the division and sent themselves to the bottom of the NL East standings. Granted in this mish mosh of mediocrity that only means three games under .500, but still last is last.
Yesterday might have been the most bothersome loss of the three. Drew Smyly, who outside of Nats games has an ERA of 10.38 this season, is a pitcher this team needs to score on. Also arguably the Braves second best reliever, Minter, would probably not pitch given he saw action in both the last two games. This was a game they needed to score some runs. They scored two. Smyly continued his one team domination holding the Nats to 1 run in 6 innings (and bringing his Nats 2021 ERA to 2.25). They had limited opportunities early - the best being a 2 on 2 out situation in the first. But beginning in the 6th you saw four straight chances be blown. A man on first, no one out in the sixth. First and second, no one out and Soto, Turner, Yadi coming up in the seventh. First and second no one out in the eighth. Man on second, no one out, in the ninth. Four chances ranging from decent to great. One run scored. The focus is on a low strike call to Robles to end the eighth turning bases loaded two out Zimm up to an ended inning but I have a hard time getting worked up about a borderline call* when you had 12 out with men on in the last 4 innings and pushed across one run.
Jon Lester pitched ok. Strong to start, getting shakier deeper in. It's the kind of game I'd expect from Lester coming off a long rest against a decent team, so after the MAAAArlins game this starts him off as expected. That's a plus I guess. Also Voth looked good again - which would be a nice find for the pen, and Hand and Hudson kept doing what they do.
This series was about the offense. It was about scoring 6 runs in three games and failing to get big hits in big spots. Now the Nats try to win against one of the hotter teams in baseball. The Yankees!
The Yankees have gone 11-5 in their last 16, turning a horrendous 5-10 start into a normal slow first 5 weeks. Their hitting has gotten much better. Stanton is past hot hitting .481 over the past two weeks with 6 homers and 4 doubles. Hicks is also hot (yes with a 89 OPS+ that's how bad it got). Judge and Lemahieu are doing their usual things and Torres is doing ok. On the flip side the catcher situation of hoping Higashioka would keep magically hitting great unsurprisingly didn't work out. They now have two guys not hitting. Left field remains a hole as Gardner plays out his last year and Clint Frazier still hasn't turned a corner despite a couple of big hits. It's a top heavy line-up the Nats will face but that top is really heavy.
Pitching wise the Yankees pen is excellent, Chapman being almost literally unhittable this year. Even with Britton and O’ Day out Loaisiga and Cessa have stepped up. There might be one or two off arms beyond the usable five which would be fine if Boone knew not to use them in non blowouts (but he doesn’t! Gotta get them work!) The rotation is a little less impressive. There also isn’t a bad arm in there but Cole is the only sure thing. The Nats don’t have to face him (The other guy they miss is perfectly ok 4/5 Jordan Montgomery)
Probables
Corbin v Taillon : Corbin has been off and on this season but his basic truth holds. When he can locate his fastball everything else falls into place. He’s just has a real issue doing that. Also homers. Taillon, reclamation project B, has pitched better than his record but has a homer issue and has been burned by some bad timing on that.
Scherzer v Kluber : Max is Max which is to say nowadays sometimes he’s MAX but sometimes he gives up too many homers. That might be a problem against a team that relies on homers. Kluber, reclamation project A, has looked pretty good his last three starts. Of course the Orioles and Tigers will do that for you. I need more convincing.
Ross v German : Ross we just talked about. Expect a 4/5 game but something surprisingly better isn't out of the question. German has had one good start and but has been middling otherwise. Ultimately he might show good control and an ability to miss bats but he's been homer prone all his career, that hasn't changed in 2021, and it'll probably limit him to a brief career at the back of a rotation and one similar to Ross/Fedde in that occasionally a gem might be thrown.
Away against a decent team? 1 out of 3 should be the goal. Preferably early because if they lose the first two the losing streak will become a thing and I hate things.
*On the MLB app and on the second run of the TV box you saw strikes. The video of the side showed the pitch go across his front knee. It was a call that really could have gone either way. It probably didn't scrape the bottom of the zone, but that's the best you can say. Probably. Given the situation in my mind it WASN'T a good take. A good take is a pitch that is clearly a ball. This was not that despite what various outlets might want you to believe
9 comments:
I think it was a good take in the sense that it's a hard ball to do anything with. Hard to foul off and almost impossible to turn into a hit. Yesterday was one of Victor's better days in recent memory and the ump jobbed him. Vic knew exactly what his role was there and exactly who was in the circle behind him. It wasn't necessarily egregious but the ump had seen that pitch from that pitcher plenty of times in the inning before and should've known what it looked like as a strike versus a little too low.
so I looked though the game before that and didn't find any exact pitches in that location (a couple were that low but also on the plate's edge or further). There were some a little bit lower (all balls) and a few a little bit higher - clearly scraping the zone (a mix of balls and strikes). That might have been what got Robles though - in his previous at bat he got a pitch a half a ball higher called a ball (that probably should have been a strike). Of course in the course of this I found a far more egregious call - the called 3rd strike to Pache in the 5th with two on and two out was as low and also outside.
The take away is his zone all game right on the edge of the bottom was a ball height fuzzy (as would a machine likely be because "armpits to knees" is not a precise measure that might differ as a guy sets up) and was all game and low pitches on the very edge of the zone should have been swung at.
Boswell is retiring - I didn’t realize he wrote that Buckner story the morning of the infamous game 6.
Keith - yep. He also came up with his own fancy stat (Total Baseball? I forget and I'm being lazy not looking it up) before SABR stuff was a thing. Of course as a writer not a math guy it left a lot to be desired but it got to the same sense that early SABR work did - which was some big things are being undervalued. (later SABR works has mostly been "where can we chip away at the edges of production" "how can we exploit the rules for a gain" and "how can we be good enough to not anger fans as cheaply as possible")
Man this offense is rough. It truly isn't about the pitching at this point. Has the pitching been stellar? No, but it's also been without Stras and Lester only is two starts in. But nobody can hit worth a damn outside Harrison, Turner, and Soto. I really want Davey to be playing Zimm more, but he knows better than any of us how much playing time he can handle. But Bell is sitting at a wRC+ of 40. Like that's pitcher territory, not cleanup hitter. And Schwarber's not much better. Literally the only regulars that have an above average wRC+ are Zimm, Turner, Soto, Harrison, Gomes, and Hernandez. It's time for Rizzo to make a move for a regular 3B if they want to compete
FWIW, the YouTube broadcasters also killed that strike three call, which was noticeably below their strike zone. Also, realize he's not an objective source per se, but given how good Soto's eye is and how chill he generally presents himself, the ferocity with how he argued that call seemed to add fuel to the fire that it was wrong.
Since sweeping the blankety blank Marlins to move into first place the Nats are 1-5 and in last place. Davey should let the position players pitch in relief and let the bullpen guys hit. It might be worse, but it wouldn't be much worse.
So yes, Ross over Fedde. It's definitely the hitting but man. Putting Hand in there to give away two winnable games when he had nothing. What was DM thinking?
The time to make a move for a bat was over the offseason. Can't believe Rizzo thought Bell and Schwarber were enough.
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