Ross got results last night but if you watched (or listened) to the game it was a lot of hard hit balls and not a lot of swings and misses. It was a performance that going into the 5th was a shutout but felt like it easily could have had the Nats 3 runs behind. The Nats weren't stupid and they saw it too and when a runner got into scoring position in the 6th with one out they cut their losses. One could say it was an early pull. He had a low enough pitch count to keep going. He was getting knocked well by Dansby Swanson who'd be up in the inning, but if he got out Riley you could put him on and face Contreras (hell - they did that anyway) but I can see why they made the move. If you look at his pitch speed, he was slowing down. Sinker speed was slower, slider speed was slower, and I have a sneaking suspicion that those "change-ups" that were his last pitches were actually fastballs he couldn't dial up.
Anyway what was done was done and in came Tanner Rainey. I saw a lot of dumb moves last night by the Phillies and Braves putting in struggling relievers with leads. These made me mad because it's clear none of these teams are cruising and when a win is presented to you you need to grab it. Instead teams were still playing as if they had had comfortable seasons so far. Putting in Rainey without a lead isn't as bad, but it was still 1-0 and certainly a winnable game. Here is kind of where you'd put in your second or third best arm to try to hold it close. But... who is that exactly? Austin Voth as probably pitched the best but also is a converted starter on his first run as a reliever and 10 innings to his name. Harris was just brought back and is a question mark. Hudson is nominally the set-up guy but is walk and homer prone and is surviving on an unsustainable BABIP (.125!). Finnegan has ok results but is also walk and homer prone. Espino maybe? Also homer prone. Sam Clay? Filler. Decent filler but filler. The bullpen right now is really Brad Hand and trying to get to Brad Hand. (Could they have used Brad Hand here? Sure - but you know that wasn't going to happen). Rainey might have been a bad choice but it wasn't like there was a good one.
So Rainey blows it with a homer to a pitcher which can't be forgiven but can be understood (usually just dialing it up and throwing an upper 90s fastball to a pitcher is enough) and there's the game. Like I said earlier the Braves would try to give the Nats a chance putting in their Rainey Tyler Matzek but he was able to get a big strikeout of Yadiel Hernandez and got Harrison to hit it a liner where they were. Ballgame.
This was the toughest game for the Nats given the match-up so it's a shame they couldn't pull it out but also it was the toughest game for the Nats given the match-up. The next two are the better chances. Get them both.
13 comments:
I guess tomorrow you'll tell us if you're still a Ross over Fedde believer.
I don't think the Braves were trying to get cute with Matzek; I think they genuinely don't have any clearly better options apart from Will Smith. Given that he's their only good reliever, I think it makes sense not to use him in a 5-run game.
The plate ump last night was terrible, and mostly terrible for the Nats. Rainey isn't/wasn't good but he got robbed on several strikes that could've changed the inning.
Ynoa was effectively wild but he was also pounding the strike zone so it's disappointing they weren't able to do more with him. And for the love of god can we please get Bell out of the 4-hole? Schwarber can at least get the bat on the ball. He looks totally lost at the plate and defeated as soon as strike one hits the catcher's glove. Same for Robles. Those check swings on balls in the other batter's box were embarrassing, he clearly isn't seeing the ball out of the pitcher's hand at all.
My hot take is that Zimm should've been the pinch hitter against the lefty with men on, not Juan Soto cold off the bench. They you still would've had him to pinch hit in the 2-hole if the spot came up with guys on.
I continue to beleive Rainey may have an undisclosed injury. There is a huge difference between 94/95 and 98/99. And even a pitcher can clobber a straight 94mph fastball.
I'm not going to sweat the Rainey/Ynoa situation. Weird things happen in baseball, that's why we all love it (and root for an NL team). I know PBN said on yesterday's post that it was bad to pull Ross there, but as someone who hates how Davey manages a bullpen, I actually think he made the right call there. I wouldn't have gone with Rainey, I would've gone with Voth, but I can't fully fault the situation.
The bigger problem yesterday, once again, was the bats. I agree with elchupinazo that Bell looks god awful at the plate. That uppercut swing is finally starting to disappear (maybe Kevin Long DOES know what he's doing) but he really just looks bad. And Schwarber in the cleanup spot would be almost as bad, he just is better at running into a ball and destroying it late in the game. The Nats desperately need one of those two to step it up, Harrison is going to cool off eventually and I'm still not sure Hernandez is the real deal, so Soto needs support when he's fully back in the lineup
Nattydread - Yes! I will!
Anon - I'd say Tomlin is probably more dependable, if not better and clearly Jackson is getting results (though not pitching better). Minter is better but of course WAS used. You are right though that this isn't getting cute. In the end it is like using Rainey in a way - a couple of maybe slightly better options out there.
elchupo - not a hot take. I wouldn't want Soto's first AB back to be against a lefty in a key situation. Zimm makes a lot of sense. Bell should be out of the 4 hole (really he should be 50/50 platooning with ZImm. Robles... well he showed you why he plays. Stevenson isn't making that catch. Walked a couple times. When he gets on base he's worthwhile. Just had a LONG stretch of not doing that.
Mainelaker - certainly possible.
CP - productively looking at history there isn't really any big difference between Bell, Schwarber, Gomes, and Castro. You can throw them around at will (and should) based on who's hot or not.
Davey made the right decision to pull Ross and put in Rainey. It just didn't work out. Rainey is clearly having some sort of problem with velocity. He's always had a problem with control. Rainey is a high leverage guy. Voth is not, at least not yet. Harris is also a high leverage guy, but not for his first outing of the year.
Zimmerman is underutilized. Sure, Zimm is better against lefties, but compared to Bell he's also better against righties. (Heck, Joe Ross is a better hitter than Josh Bell.) And Zimm is also a better fielder. And a better base runner. So, yes, Zimm should be playing at least 50% of the games. And yes, Zimm should have been the pinch hitter yesterday (against the lefty).
At the time, my first reaction was Zimm should have PH there just like everyone else. But even before Soto struck out, I changed my opinion -- let's be real, with this offense this team isn't coming back 5 runs late. The game was as good as over, might as well give Soto a chance to start finding his groove.
Good insight by everyone, I didn't notice the velocity ticking down so I can see the argument for pulling Ross. My point was more of a general criticism of the quick hook philosophy on pulling starting pitchers. You take a guy who is in the fight, albeit tired, but is in the flow of the game and replace him with a guy who had to simulate that in 20 bullpen pitches. Having played, there's a subtle momentum shift in the direction of the other team when a mid relief arm comes in with runners on: fresh meat. As a former reliever, I hated coming in to the game to clean up someone else's mess. It's not a perfect world, but I appreciate the pitching coaches and managers who tried to rotate bullpen arms so that everyone's role was 75% predictable. Ex. Finnegan only pitches between the 6th and 8th innings with a lead of less than 4 runs, pitching no more than 1 inning, or two games in a row, and won't sit for more that 4 games... something to that nature. Similar to how a LOOGY knows his role is very specific: "basically, I'm brought in to face Bryce Harper in close, late-inning games." It gives the guy a chance to prepare prior to the game, because no one gets in the mind set during warm-up pitches. Those are the guys that flop once they take the hill.
There is a system that most pitching coaches operate on. He'll take inventory prior to each game of which pitchers he has available or are well-rested. Beyond that, only the Hand and Hudson know when they would pitch. Everyone else is just getting "mentally prepared just in case." For every single game. I don't believe that works and there has to be a better way.
Interesting perspective PBN, basically the opposite of all us statheads who say pitch your best pitcher in your highest leverage situations. Reminds me of the old Yogi Berra adage: Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical.
On that note, I wonder if the Nats have an organizational issue around the mental side of relievers. Think about Storen, Clippard, Treinen, etc. All those guys had some mental blockages that either sent them off a cliff (Storen) or were remedied when they landed somewhere new. Maybe they should be getting a sports psychologist to catch bullpens
@CP - IMO the only way you can get several good bullpen arms is putting as many of them in the best position to succeed as possible. A lot of that has to do with preparation and predictable roles. Pitchers are creatures of habit. Staters have their whole 5 day routine between starts, right down to the meals they eat each day. And relievers are just supposed to be “ready to pitch everyday?” If you had guys more able to predict the situations they will throw, then it doesn’t have to be “pitch your best pitcher in your highest leverage situations.” Instead of one guy, you have a handful to choose from. Idk, I’ve seen it work that way but it’s easier said than done. You need a lot of dialogue between coaches and players to ensure everyone’s on the same page, and there’s probably more to it than that. Just seems like a glaring problem that isn’t being address. Right now, it’s just throwing crap at the wall and saving Hand for the high-leverage situations. There has to be a better way to get the most out the other 7-8 guys in the pen.
OlePBN - I don't know. Relievers didn't seem to improve based on knowing roles - at least that you can see statistically. That's what you'd want to see if it was impactful. I think everyone WANTS that but whether it matters to performance - it's like PH, or hitting close and late, or in the playoffs. In general you get enough of these unusual circumstances and things seem to even out to a player's average. I do think communication is important though - you can't let 8 guys wonder if they are being used. They do need to know their general roles and if the manager is looking to use them that night.
FWIW - I'm usually a fan of keeping guys in longer. I think a pitcher that has cruised but is tiring can actually have an advantage as the line-up wants to see a turnover. Essentially he's in their heads. But Ross wasn't like that. They were hitting him hard and harder and it felt more like a dam getting ready to burst.
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