Treading water below the surface

The Nats have been stuck - half the time doing what they need to to start moving into contention, and half the time failing.  The Reds series was a failure. Yesterday they put away the Reds in the finishing of the suspended game. The Nats pen did hold, except for Rainey, and the Reds pen gave up a few more, as expected. Something I didn't think about but should have for game 2 is how that swings an advantage toward the Reds. Fewer inning for their big weakness, middle relief, to matter. And in fact Gray went 6 so it really was only 1 inning they had to get through.  Gray wasn't that dominant. The Nats bats looked weak. Both teams did in fact, as Strasburg seemed a little off but the Reds didn't really manage to get to him, the 2nd and 3rd runs more bad luck than good hitting. 

The Nats now move on to take on Milwuakee at home. Three games at home, .500+ team (with Yelich). Gotta take the series.

 The Brewers are a pitching first team. Their offense is one of the worst in the game with only the cather Omar Navarez hitting well. He had to prove that he could after taking a while to get going and limited play in two placed before here but he has done that. Kolten Wong and Avisail Garcia the only other guys doing anything but just a little. Yelich is a star but has been hurt and has not rounded into form yet. Some of these guys just aren't good (Vogelbach, Urias, Shaw), some are disappointing terribly (Bradley, Cain), Huira may be both. The Bradley one hurts the most after Yelich's injury because he's doing so poorly.  As a team they can take a walk and hit a homer, but they strikeout so much and just don't get hits otherwise. They are the anti-Nats offense in a sense. Worse for the Brew Crew the only change in the past week from any of the above is Navarez is in a big slump. The guys not hitting are still not hitting. 

Josh Hader, used properly for one inning, has been unhittable this year. Behind him are 3-4 guys who are all perfectly ok. The very back of the pen is not good but that's not strange in baseball. Unless the Nats really work the starters they shouldn't make much headway late. The starters have a couple dominant arms, one really good one, and a couple questionable ones on the back end. The Nats will miss one dominant, Corbin "Mr. No Walk" Burnes who didn't have a great start last time out but has been great otherwise. They'll also miss one questionable one, Adrian Houser, a guy with mediocre stuff and control issues. 

Probables 

Brett Anderson vs John Lester - which Lester will we see? He started with 3 decent outings (outside of length very decent for a number 4) and has looked bad the last two times. Baltimore was the last team to get him. If he can't handle them and then can't handle this Brewers team? Yikes.  Brett Anderson is the other questionable arm. If he's right and/or lucky,  he'll force a lot of grounders. If he's wrong, and he more usually is, he won't and he'll give up a ton of hits.  He definitely won't strike anyone out.

Freddy Peralta vs Corbin - Like Lester Corbin has degraded from a very nice set of starts from late April to mid May. His last two outgins were also subpar but by keeping the ball in the park all those people on base aren't scoring as much as they could. Still he hasn't been good. The Orioles hit him and if the Brewers do too that's not good. Although Corbin's been so up and down who knows. Peralta on the other hand has untouchable stuff. His issue though is he can get wild and force himself out of games early. Conceivably a team could try to walk, foul, and get him out early but the Nats don't walk much which makes a bad match-up.

Brandon Woodruff vs Scherzer - This could be a really fun match-up.  Both these guys are bulldog pitchers who can go deep. The Brewers are more inclined to protect Woodruff  but he's gotten into the 8th twice in the past 3 games. He is enjoying a BABIP and HR/FB numbers that won't last but that doesn't mean he isn't pitching better. He was already a guy who was harder to hit, didn't give up a ton of homers, and had great control with swing and miss stuff. This slight improvement plus luck pretty much unbeatable - which the ERA of 1.41 shows.  If anyone can do it though, Max can. He hasn't been lights-out recently but he also didn't catch the Orioles. I can see this be a classic Max goes into the 8th with like 14Ks, second batter in hits a solo shot and he leaves giving up 1 run.  Let's just hope it doesn't put the Nats behind 1-0.  

Gotta win the series. Will be tough to do without taking the first one.