Have we stopped talking about the Nats early season losses to the Braves as being "ok because they might be one of the best teams in the NL" Because if not - look around. They aren't good. The Nats could really bury the Braves with a sweep here, where as with a Braves sweep the Nats would fall to a game behind the Braves, so this series is more important to them than the Nats. In general the Braves have been slipping. They've lost their last 4 and have been beaten badly, by 5 runs or more, 5 times in their last 9 games. Let's take a closer look
Line-up wise the big problem is Ozuna has been terrible. He's sporting a .204 / .289 / .306 split (that's pathetic power) but instead of pushing him down the line-up Snitker moved him up to the 3 hole and kept him there. Similarly Swanson (.202 / . 272 / .317) hasn't been punished for his lack of production, holding steady to the 6 spot. That means the Braves have two big holes in the line-up in the first six outs. Ozuna hasn't been AS bad recently - swinging at everything and hitting two homers - but still it's a bad position for a team that needs a bunch of runs because of various pitching issues. On the flip side Albies is back and hot and Austin Riley might have found his groove. Acuna is ok and Freeman is struggling but you bet on Freddie in a way you don't the other guys. D'Arnaud is now out for the year and backup Alex Jackson is hurt putting Willam "Don't call me William" Contreras behind the plate. He's a minor league hitter who shouldn't hit. Rounding things out is Christian Pache, back after a brief break. He should hit eventually in the majors but no telling if he'll hit now. Properly set up it's a lineup that can score but Snitker will probably stick to his guns and make it weaker than it needs to be. On the bench is Big Panda and he can still hit, but he can't play anywhere but maybe first and you aren't taking Freddie out.
Pen wise it's not great. They do have a lot of arms and the back of the pen - Smith, Minter, now Tomlin, have done better than their ERAs might suggest. But no one else has stepped up and distinguished themselves. Luke Jackson has the best ERA but is a wild mess. Guys like Matzek and Dayton have been mediocre after some promising results in previous years. I still think it sorts out into something pretty good but sorting out takes time and the Braves don't have an unlimited supply of that.
But the real problem isn't a middling middle of the pen leading into a good but not great back. It's the back end of the rotation. Morton has been getting bad results, Smyly failed in the 5th spot and Bryse Wilson in to help cover spots, even more so with Fried hurt and Soroka's return pushed back, has been a disaster. A two man rotation is not a rotation, but Fried is back now and they should be able to right the ship - at least in the sense of play .500+ ball again.
PROBABLES
Huascar Ynoa vs Joe Ross - Ross bounced back from the bad outing in STL to beat the Mets in DC. He's been great at home so far, but honestly hasn't pitched great. If you want to be concerned the K-rate, BABIP, and LOB% all suggest he's mediocre and getting lucky. The hard hit rate and GB numbers agree. All in all though he's probably as good as his ERA, but in a more stable 4 runs 6.1 innings way. Ynoa has been pretty good. Great control and swing and miss stuff. He can be a bit homer prone though.
Max Fried vs Erick Fedde - Fried looked pretty much like his old self in G1 then got terrible for his 2nd and 3rd games, and presumably was hurt as he'd go out after that. This will be his first game back so it's hard to say what the Nats will see but he's a guy who gets soft contact on the ground when he's on. You might remember that I kind of actually like what I'm seeing from Fedde? He can be more consistent and will probably give up some more bombs but he's missing more bats and everything else points to a 4.00 type guy which you'd take in a second.
(These two games are gonna shape my Ross/Fedde thoughts going forward as I'm still a Ross over Fedde believer)
? vs Lester - Lester had a warm-up game against the Marlins AAA lineup and looked well enough. Let's see what he does against a team putting out more than one above average bat in eight. Either Bryse Wilson or Drew Smyly or someone completely different could be up. My guess will be Smyly because the only passable start either of these two put up was Smyly against the Nats on the 6th when he went 4 and struck out 8. Thats almost half his K's for the season.
Win the series. That's the goal. Keep moving forward and keep the Braves down.
7 comments:
RANT INCOMING....
For the life of me, I will never understand pulling a starting pitcher who is cruising in favor of a middle relief arm who’s been sitting on all game. Ross was at 86 pitches when he was pulled in the 6th with one out after a single by Albies, who advanced to second on a throwing error by Trea. Martinez thinks, “yep. Joe is spent. It would be better to bring in Rainey.” Hmm. It would be “better” to bring in Rainey? Rainey who had 6.48 ERA going into this game?
Some explain the logic of pulling a guy who’d given up 5 hits through 5 1/3 innings and 1 run on one good swing in favor of a mid relief arm? Aside from a dozen effective guys (most are closers), ALL mid relief pitchers are failed starters. Meaning they started in high school then got moved to the pen. Started in college then got moved to the pen. Started in low minors then got moved to the pen. Started in MLB... you get it. I say “failed” starter because they could be in the rotation if they were good enough or had the repertoire to give up 5 hits in 5 innings. Most can’t, so they are in the bullpen.
Why do coaches pull an effective better pitcher for a pitcher who is not as good? Admit it, at its core, that’s who is replacing the starter (unless he’s a closer). If it’s solely based on pitch count or matchups, that’s totally ignorant of the above or the flow of the game, and at least is narrow minded. How many times do you see what happened tonight? Sometimes all the other team needs is a new look from a LESSER pitcher. Good god. If we were going to lose that game, let Ross lose it. He’d prefer it that way. He’d prefer it that way, so would his defense, his manager, and especially Rainey. Ross is probably beside himself.
So the single/error (not Ross’ fault btw) was enough to scare Martinez into making the call to the pen in fear of the game getting out of hand. Well? I guess that grand slam really escalated things quickly, huh? No logic behind it, or just archaic thinking that needs to be re-examined.
It drives me crazy too PBN - most of these managers paint by numbers and it is maddening - but we do have to admit it isn't quite that simple. It's not that all relief pitchers are worse than the starters. It is just that they don't have the multitude of different pitches/looks to keep hitters off balance through multiple at bats in one game. There are dominant relief pitchers that are dominant because their primary, or top two, pitches are dominant but that's all they have. Doolittle is a classic example of this.
So I personally wouldn't have pulled Ross and I don't think Davy should have. But we don't watch him every day and it might have been he was signaling that he didn't have it anymore. There are a lot of examples of starters being left in too long and blowing it. Happens a lot with Max for example because his competitive fire and track record keeps him in games.
I think managers err on the side of pulling guys too fast and that's probably what happened last night. But it's easy to second guess and harder to make those decisions in the moment.
None of this is relevant if we would just hit the damn ball.
Braves fan here, but I come to this blog for the good baseball talk it features. Glad we got the win last night but we're a mess. Kudos to the Nats for being where you are despite everything that's happened to your team so far this year. I hope we get good Fried tonight, but it's a toss-up at this point. Was hoping you'd have Soto back for this series. Always fun to watch Acun~a and Soto play against one another, and I look forward to it for years to come.
FWIW- I was at the game last night and it seemed like Ross was getting hit really hard, especially towards the end. He was also in the high 80s on pitch count if I'm not mistaken. Not sure if it was the right decision, but I thought it was when he pulled him at that time.
Ole PBN / Anon - Yeah my feeling was Ross wasn't dominating, instead he was being hit pretty hard and it was just going at people at the right times. That was in no way cruising. Swanson in particular had seen Ross real well so I'd be inclined to not pitch to him. It may have been early but I'm not confounded by the decision - or the move to Rainey. If the Nats were ahead I would have been screaming. You gotta lock down the wins. But they weren't
BTW: Welcome Dan. The Braves are the opposition, not Braves' fans. Philly fans on the other hand...
Acuna and Soto are going to be fun to watch for a long time.
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