The Nats lost. They got a few men on base, hit a couple homers, but in the end the Cubs got a few more men on base and hit more homers. Lester looked like the 4th starter he is now, having an off day that put the Nats in a bind but not out of it. But with the offense as it is, the Nats were behind and Davey, rightfully, used the B Team. They did ok, but couldn't hold the Cubs scoreless, while the Cubs very solid pen could do that to the Nats. The Nats should be favored in the last two, given Max is Max and Trevor Williams is the worst starter going in this series, but let's not make those HAVE to wins.
The offense can't get off the ground in large part because Soto can't get the ball off the ground. Jesse "Don't call me Dough-er-tea" Dougherty* talked about his launch angle decline the other day. He's hitting a lot more groundballs (59% a good increase from last years 52% and a huge bump from 2019s 42%) add to that minor declines in hard hit balls (more medium speed) and fewer pulled balls (more in the middle) and you get a sense of a guy who's swing is off.
Normally you might disregard that idea, but he has the most important backing stat out there working in favor of a swing issue. He has an injury.
It's utterly apparent in the stats he's hurt. He has barely any extra base hits this year (2 doubles and 3 homers) and only one since coming back. His isoSLG (best measure of power) sits at a measly .120 which is somewhere between career Robles and career Difo. He's on pace for the worst month of his career with an OPS of .653 when his previous worse was an .800 in his rookie year. This is not a healthy normal Soto. Since coming back his GB rate is a whopping 74%, with a LD rate of 12% and a FB rate of 15%. He has hit one ball that wasn't a GB in his last 6 games. His pull rate is almost below 20%. His hard hit ball rate is under 30%.
This should all be apparent watching the guy but we can keep piling it on. What fancy stats do you want? Since coming back...
Exit velocity? 87.7
Barrels? 2
Launch Angle? -2.3 Yes. MINUS 2.3. His average hit is coming off the bat going down. I don't know exactly how fast you'd have to hit a ball off your bat going down to have it reach the OF grass on the fly** but I'm guessing fast enough to make it very hard to do
Soto should be hitting like a star. As a 19yo kid he was almost doing it and it's not like the league has figured something out about him. He got better every year. But he isn't hitting better. This isn't a slump, where you hit basically the same but a few bounces go the wrong way. This is something wrong. The sooner the Nats admit it and get this guy looked at again, and maybe get him more rest, the better.
*It's "Dockerty". No I don't like it either.
**Yes I can look it up probably and figure it out. I'm sure "very fast" is the answer.
6 comments:
This would be the death knell of the season if true. On the other hand, maybe a down year will make him more willing to sign a long term deal this offseason.
Yeah I never understood the argument that his shoulder injury would only impact his throw. Sure the right shoulder does more work in a lefty's swing, but it's not like the left shoulder does nothing, and if there's even a slight twinge of pain, it can completely throw off your mechanics. Get the kid healthy, take the loss on the season, and ensure stability for the future
Same old Nats these last 2 games. This is who they are. Can't score enough runs consistently.
Yes, same old Nats. Can't score enough runs consistently, and the bullpen just can't sleep at night unless they give up a go-behind dinger....consistently.
Can it be a "death knell" for a season that is already dead?
If things don't turnaround soon for the Nats, they'll probably be out of it for all intents and purposes in less than a month's time. Not mathematically obviously, but the probability will reach that point where you sort of have to accept the season is lost and move forward. I guess the real challenge is that there aren't exactly a lot of pieces that the Nats can move that will be useful assets at the trade deadline. But it seems inevitable one way or the other that they will need to shift their thinking to how to rebuild the roster over the short, medium, and long term.
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