That's the take-away you were looking for right? The short answer is Fedde hasn't done enough to surpass Ross' history. The long answer is... well below.
If you look at 2021 overall you'll see that Fedde has pitched better but Ross has the better results. Fedde has gotten hit fewer times, given up fewer homers, and has struck out more. Ross has had better control. You can see why Fedde is ahead in pitching in a vacuum. But if you look at the game logs you might be able to tell why I prefer Ross.
Joe Ross has basically pitched every game but one the same. He doesn't give up a bunch of hits or walks, but he doesn't strike out many either. The ball is in play and he'll likely give up some runs (more so than he has in the good games this year but less than in that one - he basically had all bad luck shoved into one outing). He'll also keep the team in the game. Yes he can throw out a stinker - but who doesn't?
Erick Fedde either has it or doesn't. When he has it he's missing bats and forcing the other team to chase. When he doesn't he's getting hit over and over again and walking too many and finding himself in big holes. While I can see the potential in a Fedde, if he just pitches like he did against Arizona or Toronto more often he'd be an intriguing middle of the rotation guy, give me the solid security of 5-6 innings of Joe Ross.
Last night was bad Fedde and I mentioned early that I was bothered by the fact he had gotten so few swinging strikes so far (he would have 2 in the first 14 batters he faced). He was living on his sinker working and getting ground balls. If he got tired and things started hanging then the hits would be harder and further, and that's exactly what happened. The Nats pen held on but in arguably worse bad news for the Nats (and the NL East) Max Fried looked fine. He is a good pitcher when right and he seemed right to me last night. After doing his job the Nats did manage 2 runs against the Braves pen in four innings, which is reasonable, but it wasn't enough to come back.
Last night also had some more questionable managerial decisions.
Walking Freddie Freeman to get to Ozuna? I wasn't a fan but not for the reasons you think. I didn't like it because Fedde walked Acuna before that which means you were forcing a pitcher who just had an issue throwing strikes to have to do it. He did in fact throw the ball all over the zone (2 strikes, 3 not close balls) before the grand slam. But I do get walking Freeman (even if he was struggling) to get to Ozuna, who has been terrible lately. I've even called for it at other times. But I hate the walking the bases loaded unless you are getting the obvious advantage doing it. I like pitchers to have some room for error
Not pulling Fedde after 3 : It was a very rough inning but Davey chose to stick with him with the bottom of the line-up coming up. Sure, I guess. The game wasn't out of hand and the pen could always use as much rest as it can get. Didn't exactly work though as Contreras took him deep, but he did settle
Not PHing Soto in the 8th : The Nats quickly got to 2 runs back in their half of the 8th after a HBP and Turner homer. Two batters later there was one out and a man on 2nd. You could conceivably PH Soto anyhere starting here with Castro but they didn't. In part the Braves might have out maneuvered Davey, going with their set-up man Minter, a lefty, to face two straight righties. Also, because Stevenson came in the previous half-inning in a double switch to move the pitcher slot back, they couldn't bat Soto without changing the defensive line-up in some way. With Soto out from playing the field there would have to be a sub-optimal set-up. Would Davey pull either Castro (slightly better against LHP) or Gomes (much better) for Soto (guys hits everyone very well) given all this? Without the D question you could probably argue PH for Castro (not as much for the hotter Gomes) but the answer ended up being no. I'm ok with that. Castro would double and Gomes would strike out. But now second and third with two out up comes Schwarber. Schwarber historically has been bad vs LHP. Despite this year having a couple hits in his limited ABs against them, Soto seemed like an obvious call here. Yes you still have the fielding question but to me the driving question is simple - do you want to figure out what to do with a lead or do you want to keep doing what you know you can from behind? That's no question - you want the lead. You NEED the lead. That's the point. And Soto gives you the best chance of the lead here. Schwarber would walk, moving the bar over to Robles and again I would have PH Soto. Try to get the lead, worry about what you do after that - after that. But he didn't Robles got out and the game was mostly over*
Smyly is the choice tonight. Like I said a couple days ago - he's been terrible but his only decent start was against the Nats. Don't make it a thing.
*There is another thing that could be relevant here - maybe Soto isn't right at all. If he can't be depended on as a solid bat of course you don't use him but if that's the case then what the hell would he be doing up on the active roster? I dismiss this
6 comments:
This was classic Davey. That Schwarber at bat was the game and he blew it. The fact that the leading run was in the batters box with .186 in the graphic over him tells you everything.
Also, the asterisk is out the window as he immediately put Soto up to the plate in the 9th.
I think Soto's "rightness" is relative. Maybe not hurt but I think he needs regular ABs as DH in this Yankees series to get back in the groove. His own son threw him two challenge fastballs last night and he looked nowhere close on either of them. In general I kind of buy the company line (he has no pain when hitting) but he's clearly not back to his old self yet.
Davey's explanation of why he didn't use Soto over Robles in the 8th: "I wasn't comfortable putting Soto in the field with his shoulder." So he was wondering who he would have to play the OF between Bell or Avila? Isn't this the same excuse as "If I pitched our closer in the 7th, who would I have to close out the save in the 9th?"
Don't worry Davey. Robles made sure you didn't have to worry about that problem. I sure would have liked to see some semblance of a plan from Victor in such a big spot. Surely he wasn't looking for a slider low on the first pitch? So why pull the trigger? I think we all can agree that Soto would have at least handled that AB better and that's all we're asking our manager to do. Put his players in the best chance to succeed and win the game. Worry about who's playing OF after you have a lead. SMH.
I dunno, I didn't love seeing Schwarber and Robles in the batter's box in that situation, but Soto's been out for a while and, as evidenced by his AB last night, isn't in the groove yet. I can understand the hesitancy to PH Soto in such a high leverage situation when he hasn't shaken off the rust and you don't want to play him in the field. Remember, Soto's still gonna fail 7 times out of 10, we're not talking about a sure thing, we're talking about increasing the odds of success by about 10%.
You always want to put your team in the best position to win, but it's a long season and there are other calculations to be made outside of instantaneous increases/decreases in Win Probability. The unfortunate thing is that Soto is literally Davey's only choice to go to in that situation if he's going to PH. Everybody else has been garbage so far this season. As PBN alluded to with the bullpen, you've got Hand and then a bunch of mediocrity. Same goes for this lineup outside of Soto, Turner, and Harrison right now
If this lineup doesn't get better, it's not going to matter much if its Ross or Fedde. Both are going to give up runs. If the bats can't put up any runs, then it really doesn't matter. My word, the hitting is rough. It's like 5 of the 9 are automatic outs.
This never seemed like much of a question though? Ross was a solid back of the rotation starter prior to injury, but this is basically the first time Fedde's pitched well over a stretch of multiple games.
Robles looking great on defense in CF.
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