The Nats won 2 out of 3 - just as they should - coming close to the sweep but before you curse the gods for that late-inning loss, the wins were a 2-1 game and a game where they gave up 8 runs, and the loss was a 14 run allowed affair. Two out of three was right for their performance.
The big story for the weekend was of course Doolittle blowing another game, and not particularly a close one. It may not seem like Doolittle is being overworked. If you look at his appearances and IP they are up there but not that close to the top. But relievers are individuals and Doolittle as a pitcher has not worked this hard in half a decade. Factor in a oddly high number of warm-ups where he didn't come in and yes Doolittle is being overworked. Maybe another pitcher would be a no, but Doolittle yes. That's the trade-off for him. Boz goes into it deeper, ripping Davey in an excellent column that highlights the problem with Davey the manager. He doesn't seem to manage. I agree.
Ideally the Nats would have gained a game on the Braves as they were taking on the Dodgers - but we've been saying this for a while now - the Braves are actually good. They probably aren't catching them. Stop thinking about it! Now is a 7 game road swing where 4-3 is the goal. The back half could be very interesting as the Cubs have not been able to hold off the Cardinals and are currently looking up at the Nats in the WC. But until then - the Pirates!
The Pirates have been one of the worst teams in baseball since the break going an abysmal 7-27 since the break. They don't hit and they are terrible pitching. They were surviving on 4 bats - but they've traded Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell has been in a long slump. Marte and Reynolds are the other guys who can hit. Moran has had a bad 2nd half. Newman and Diaz AND Frazier AND Cabrera have been awful.The bullpen is actually not bad, making the Pirates the weird MLB team with a decent pen (yet is still awful). Vazquez is great holding down the 9th and Liriano, Stratton, and Feliz are all good. Kela is a perfectly fine 5th option. The last couple arms are a mess - but find me a pen that isn't true about.
The Pirates pitching was based on the idea that their guys would take a step up and form a strong rotation. Instead Archer, Musgrove, and Brault all lingered as 3-4-5 types and Williams got worse to join them. None of these guys is terrible - they'd all probably be in most teams rotation as the 4 or 5 but you can't build a rotation based on 4s and 5s. Not unless your hitting is the best and well - it is not. The match-ups are Ross vs Williams, who is getting worse as Ross is getting better. Strasburg vs Archer, who is actually having a nice second half but with the Pirates not hitting is not getting any wins. Corbin vs Musgrove, who like Archer is pitching better though a few ill-timed homers have ruined otherwise good performances.* Then it's TBD vs Brault, another 2nd half improver. Will it be Max? That's the plan. It probably won't be confirmed until Tuesday or even Wednesday morning.
The way this lines up the Nats will be favored every game but the Pirates should be able to squeak out a good performance with a string of runs and hold on somewhere in here. I mean if they played 162 the Nats might be favored 162 times, but they aren't going 162-0, you know? So 3-1 is the expectation and the goal. Do that and they don't have to win the series in Chicago.
*You know like giving up 5 hits and 2 walks, with only one XBH (a homer) in 5 innings. But the homer is a 3-run shot and he gave up another dink and dunk run so he's giving up 4 in 5. That kind of game.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
47 comments:
Saturday was the most Dave Martinez game of the year. I mean, why is Grace pitching in a close game? It seems to me that the Nats have a number of relievers who are pretty good if you don't use them 2 days in a row (Doolittle, Rainey, Rodney and maybe Suero). Why doesn't DM recognize this and at least try to avoid using them two days in a row?
Also, I thought Sanchez was really victimized by Cabrera at 2B, he had a number of weak hit ground balls that you would think had a chance at being caught, but Cabrera looked like he had cement boots on. It was Daniel Murphy-esque.
Finally, the Nats have a roster crunch coming up if Zim comes back and it's actually a tough decision to make. Howie can't play SS, so either the Nats don't carry a backup SS and cut Cabrera or they dfa Matt Adams. I can't see them letting Parra go because you need a 4th OFer. Perhaps someone will go on the IL until September 1st.
They can solve the Zim roster crunch problem by having his rehab linger until September 1. I love you, Zim, but it's hard to imagine a scenario when I'd prefer to have Zim in an MLB game rather than Howie or Adams. Zim should be thought of as a pinch hitter and no more. DFAing Adams is simply not going to happen. Really, the choice is between Zim, Cabrera, or a relief pitcher. Once the clock hits 9/1, the team can have it all and doesn't need to choose. For me, the possible gain of having Zim on the roster between now and 9/1 (if it's even a gain, it might be a negative) is simply not worth the cost of potentially losing Cabrera for the rest of the season. Delay is the dominant strategy here.
PNC Park should at least be a relief for the guys weather-wise...it's been a hot and humid home stand.
@Anonymous re: roster crunch - it's also not that you'd prefer Howie, Adams, Parra, and Cabrera on the roster over Zim, but that you'd have to DFA one of them to get Zim back on the roster. I can't see Zim getting re-called until 9/1 unless a position player hits the DL.
What the rules around playoff roster again? I could imagine exercising an option on someone to get Zim up for a day on the 31st. He was getting into pretty solid pinch hitting form before the foot injury., would love to have the option of zim in a one game playoff
Zim is on the 25 man roster but on the I/L. He is eligible to be on the playoff roster already; he does not need to be called up prior to 9/1 to be eligible.
There's a rule about how long he can be on a rehab assignment before he needs to be called up, but I think he can be on assignment for as much as 30 days, so I don't think that will create an issue. I DO think, however, that Zim might not want stay in the minors for the next two weeks, so that might be an issue.
Of course, another option for Zim is to not go with an 8-man pen now that we have a substantial number of actually functional relief pitchers, with Doolittle's injury means that the #8 guy is strictly a mop-up operator like McGowin. Hudson-Strickland-Rodney-Suero-Rainey-Guerra-Grace ought to be fine until Elias or Doolittle return, by which case it'll likely be September anyway.
@JW "Why doesn't DM recognize this and at least try to avoid using them two days in a row"
I think its hard to avoid because the names you mentioned are the guys we need pitching in a close game. Three close games in row: who are you throwing in relief that third game (for fun, pretend they starters each went 5, 6, and 6 innnings). Pretty hard to dance around the two consecutive day thing, guys need to suck it up and pitch.
For the fun exercise of defending DM (not Davey!), how was Doolittle supposed to have avoided being overworked? If our pen enters the 9th inning with a 7 run lead and Grace gives up 6 runs without recording an out, do you expect DM to not get Doolittle hot? If he comes in a pitches, okay, but I think the criticism of him not being a "manager" when it comes to the bullpen is because he gets guys loose and doesn't end up putting them in the game, effectively spending them for that day. I get it. But the entire purpose behind warming a guy up is predictive logic in that you have to prepare for "what if Grace can't preserve this 7, now 6, now 5, now 4, now 3, now 2, now 1-run lead? We were 10 games under .500 and the season was looking like it was over before it really began and DM was fighting for his job. Doo had to pitch (or warm up) games he should have had to--not because of DM--but because our terrible bullpen couldn't hold a substantial lead.
If Doo's career goes downhill because of this, I'd caution everyone to point the finger at DM alone. Of course he plays a role, but its not all on him. Players play (or are supposed to, at least).
The problem with DM is that even when he doesn't use Doo, he still has no idea what he's doing. Case and point, pitching Rodney in BOTH games of a doubleheader. The guy is 42 years old! What are you doing??? Sure it worked out in the end, but what a bone-headed move.
DM has the same issue that Ole PBN (the manager, not the commenter) had. He needs everything scripted out for him, which indeed is not managing.
I guess the only good thing you can infer about Martinez as a manager is that his club bounced back fairly well from that extras loss.
A win now is the same as a win in three weeks. Doolittle has been going downhill for a while. He might have pitched through it and recovered or might have broken down and ended up on the IL. DM seems to always take the choice of "let's find out". He kept pitching him the same as he normally would. Doo ends up on the DL for a while. At least he's not limping along all season.
He does the same thing when someone new arrives from the minors or from a trade. He immediately uses them to see for himself what he's got. Then he adjusts.
The Nats bullpen sucked early in the season. Doo got overused because of this. Sometimes it was because he was the only viable pitcher available and other times because big leads were eliminated in the 7th or 8th requiring Doo to save when he otherwise wouldn't.
We're in a race to win a wildcard. DM has to use whatever weapons he has and hope they don't break. Get all the wins you can immediately. I don't fault him.
Why aren't you guys crying about Rendon, Turner, Robles and Soto playing EVERY day? Because they haven't broken. The only reason you're complaining about Doo is because he did.
The players seem to like Martinez. He held the team together when they were terrible. (Veteran players helped with that.) But on Saturday, he warmed up Hudson for the 8th, inserted Rodney (I'm fine with that), but then went to Doo in the 9th instead of Hudson. I'm not fine with that. So, Doo gives up a home run to Yelich. That happens. Yelich hits a lot of home runs. But then the next batter blasts a double into the gap. Gotta start warming up Hudson now -- but no. Then another home run, on (I believe) a 90 mph batting practice pitch. Look, Doo is a fly ball pitcher. It's a hot and sticky day, and pop ups are flying out of the park. Doo is tired, he's not even close to his usual 94 mph four-seamer, and his placement is terrible. So now, the game is tied, you've got to take him out. But he pitched to another batter. And that went quite poorly. As someone noted above, Martinez is turning into PBN II (regarding player's roles). Of course, credit to Martinez for much better player relationships than PBN.
I agree that Martinez is turning into the second coming of my namesake. But I think he does it in an effort to convey confidence in a player. "Doo is our closer. When he comes back, he's pitching the ninth inning." Really? What if Hudson starts pitching lights out and is saving games with ease? You really going to bump him out and put Doo in that spot again? Perhaps, and that would be foolish IMO. But maybe DM does that so as to not break Doo's confidence even further, and to avoid drama in the clubhouse because he told the reporters the truth.
One thing Dusty did very well (and that's why I liken DM more to a young Dusty than a Matt Williams) was creating an atmosphere where its only the 25 guys on the roster and the coaches that matter. This didn't earn him many friends in the media or in the stands, but players played for him. I think DM is showing what steady confidence in your team can do, and I love it. DM is not MW because he hasn't shown a stubbornness to change his thinking. I think he's evolved in some ways, and not so much in others. How does Boston like Alex Cora this year?
As far as managing a pen, he ain't that good. But who is? Does the Great Wizard of North Chicago take any blame for the Cubbies bullpen being a raging dumpster fire?
DM has a ceiling, and I suppose that ceiling is bullpen management.
Can't say he has done a bad job in regards to keeping the clubhouse together after that miserable start to the season.
I know "chemistry" is hard to define, especially in a sport like baseball, and definitely harder to define from a fan's perspective - but since 2012 I can't remember a better chemistry of our position players.
The Nat's 2019 Bullpen is what it is. How many more games would we have won if Davey was a better bullpen manager? How many more games would the 2019 Redskins have won if Belichik was their coach (granted Belichik would never coach for an owner like Snyder)?
As we like to say, "A fish stinks from the head." I'd like to see more articles about the Lerners/Rizzo and less about Davey, who we have established is a low-ceiling manager.
Well, the difference is we know from Doo's history and age that he would very likely break. No reason to think the other guys will.
and PBN was who?...(asking for a friend)...
@Anderiffick
you must be new around these here parts. PBN was everyone's favorite manager to hate, Matt "Paint By Number" Williams
@Cautiously Pessisistic. Thanks!...sounds quite like him too...
Lots of comments about DM's treatment of Doo, but what about Scherzer? Shouldn't he get some credit for bringing him back slowly? If it was up to Mad Max, he'd have been pitching again by now
GCX - If he's involved - great. But I'm thinking anything that deals with roster space and IL lists involve Rizzo and others in the org. Davey is going to be mainly responsible for IP/Pitches. (and honestly I'm fine with his usage up until now - Max seemed fine with a heavy workload - lost of pitches. Now, when he comes back we hopefully will see Max kept low maaaaybe getting up to 100+ right before playoffs, if applicable.
All over the majors you will find dumpster fires in bullpens and managers being blamed for poor bullpen management. Davey certainly isn't a great bull manager but maybe people have missed the root cause.
MLB is using a juiced ball. No one even questions that premise. What that means is that no lead is safe any more which means closers are having to pitch in more games than they did in the past because "safe leads" evaporate in the 7th and 8th inning.
It is all connected if you can follow the dots.
At the beginning of the year, it was basically an automatic loss if the starter didn't get through 7+, and even then it was questionable. Doolittle was overused because there was no other option to even hold a 3- or 4- run lead. DM may be still adjusting to having a bullpen where there are actual decisions to make.
I agree with OPBN that the decision to automatically have Doo be the closer is questionable. He seems like the type that would be reasonable about being used differently if someone else had locked down the role in his absence or another closer type had been brought in (there may have even been a time when he said something along those lines iirc).
If the Nats keep hitting like this, Davey shouldn't have to worry about the bullpen! *checks Saturday's box score*
"We put him in for the 9th because he's our closer" is Matt Williams-level paint-by-numbers. Why bother having a manager at all with that little effort.
I feel like both teams tonight just wish Pitt could surrender after the 2nd. This is brutal and pointless.
I don't know guys..maybe it isn't the ball that is juiced...maybe it's the hottest summer on record and a greenhouse gas effect! That explains both the homers and the rash of awful relievers all over the league!
Easiest explanation is usually the correct one!
It's the typical dog days when every pitcher gets tired and has some clunkers. The Nats are lucky to (mostly) be on the winning end of it. It doesn't hurt that they have faced some competition that wasn't very good to begin with.
"Everyone complains about their Pen being bad, blames the manager, maybe it's something else"
Checks out early season highlights of Rosenthal and Barraclough, high fives the air for graduating to the 2nd worst BP in MLB by ERA, and what was before the latest blow up a -9 WPA (closest team was -5).
"Yeah, it's totally not the Nationals having something wrong with their specific BP or Davey's usage."
- SSLN
To be honest, it kind of annoys me nowadays when I see a national reporter or a writer for another team's blog trot out statistics about the Nats' bullpen being the worst or among the worst in the majors over the course of the season, completely ignoring the fact that Rosenthal, Barraclough, Miller, and Sipp from the beginning of the year aren't on the team, Jennings was released after being a failed midseason fill-in, as was Adams, while Williams was sent back down, Ross (who was abominable in relief) is a starter now, and McGowin doesn't pitch when the game is closer than five runs. Meanwhile, Rainey, Rodney, Guerra, Hudson, and Strickland weren't even on the team while it was racking up most of those awful numbers. Doolittle, Suero, and Grace are the only guys who have been on the team the full season, and with Doo now on the IL, that means that Rizzo has at this point turned over literally 3/4 of the bullpen. Yes, the Nats have a lousy bullpen ERA, but none of the pitchers who caused that are going to be coming into games now, so it doesn't actually provide any useful information to the readers.
@Dezo. The Nats pen is absolutely terrible. There’s no way around that. It’s not as bad as it was early on, but it’s not that much better. There’s no way to spin a pen that’s worse by ERA than a pen in NL has been in like multiple years, he hasn’t had a single shut down guy added.
@SSLN. It’s true many bullpens around MLB are having a rough time. But it’s also true the Nats pen is objectively worse than any contenders and uniquely hideous. We can’t just be like “it’s mostly the juiced ball.” No, the Nats pen having a 6+ ERA (and that doesn’t even count inherited runners who score!) is not mostly about a juiced ball. If there was no juiced ball we would have the worst bullpen but the ERA would be like 5.6.
@DezoPenguin and @BxJayCobb - It has been better (Doolittle meltdowns now withstanding), and getting back closer to the pack outcomewise is a boon to the team. The whole NL East to be candid has been a dumpster fire for a BP, but the Nats are responsible for far more losses over the course of the season than our nearest neighbor. So while I agree it's now slightly dated thinking, it's also the reason we're not, say, 2 games out of first if not tied (if you give something like WPA credence retrospectively). Whether it's the pen talent itself or how Davey and the coaches train / manage them, I couldn't tell you.
Bx, ssln was using hyperbole. duh.
Are we going to get an updated post on how Joe Ross was still on a blistering hot streak and looking pretty good (even if it was still a small sample size) before he was removed due to injury? And how this could have been a big deal/could still be one if Max is not right when he returns? I think Joe deserves a more positive post given the excellent job he had done in his spot starts this year. I hope he is okay, he deserved to win that 5th starter role down the stretch and into next year. Too bad he cant be relied upon out of the pen when/if playoff time comes around.
@Anon. I agree. Joe Ross hasn’t just been getting lucky. He’s objectively been pitching better. Obviously he’s not THIS good, but he’s gone from terrible to an effective starter. Hopefully he’s ok.
@Bx: I really don't understand how you can say "the Nats pen is terrible" with a straight face--meaning, of course, the Nats pen as presently constituted, not on a season-long basis. Just looking at the present bullpen roster, with their performances with the Nats:
Hudson -- 1.08 ERA/1.54 FIP/0.4 fWAR
Suero -- 4.47/2.88/1.2
Strickland -- 1.29/3.07/0.2
Rodney -- 3.24/3.92/0.2
Guerra -- 5.09/4.79/0.0
Rainey -- 3.98/4.57/0.0
Grace -- 6.26/5.63/-0.4
That's four good pitchers, two "eh, whatever" guys, and one genuinely lousy pitcher. And that's with Doolittle and Elias on the IL, meaning that Guerra and Grace shouldn't even be there. Meanwhile, Blazek, Jennings, Austen Williams, Miller, Rosenthal, and Barraclough--sub-replacement-level performers, all six of them are all off the team, and Ross, who threw 18 similarly sub-replacement games out of the pen, is no longer relieving. Sipp is the only reliever that provided any positive value by fWAR who's been removed.
This simply isn't a terrible 'pen any more. Nobody's going to mistake it for the 2015 Royals or the present Yankees or any similarly stellar pen, of course. But there's a huge difference between the nightmare scenario we once had and the present group, that's easily on par with the Braves, Mets, Cubs, or Brewers's equally flawed groups.
On Ross: Yes, Anon & Bx, you're both quite right--his performance over the last several games hasn't just been lucky pitching but rather good pitching, and if his leg is okay he definitely should have the inside track on the fifth starter slot the rest of the way. I was wishing him permanently to Fresno earlier this season and the man has absolutely proven me wrong.
BX
People on this board have trouble separating compound ideas. I am not arguing that the Nats didn't have a terrible bullpen or that Davey didn't screw it up. What I am simply saying is that the situation was made worse by the juiced ball.
If you disagree with that statement, that is fine but then explain why most of the NL East's bullpens have been a disaster, and you can add in the Cubs, and half the teams in the AL.
Two ideas, both can be true at the same time except in the case of Cool who thinks its got something to do with greenhouse gases and has the scientific evidence to back it up.
That is sarcasm for those of you who don't get it.
@ssln - Yes, yes in the context of what you said above that was indeed what you were saying, and now are trying to spin it to be "it's both!" Hypocrisy is fun :) Just for fun, I'll pull a you.
"All over the majors you will find dumpster fires in bullpens and managers being blamed for poor bullpen management. Davey certainly isn't a great bull manager but maybe people have missed the root cause.
MLB is using a juiced ball. No one even questions that premise. What that means is that no lead is safe any more which means closers are having to pitch in more games than they did in the past because "safe leads" evaporate in the 7th and 8th inning."
While I agree with your correction (Nats are also just worse over the course of the season, but all ERAs are up) that's not what you said.
Joe Ross has been pitching better, and I hope the "shinburger" isn't serious. It would be significant if he matures into a solid mid-to-back end starter.
All that being said, I haven't seen enough to say he's definitely there yet. His xwOBA, which is like wOBA but with exit velo and launch angle, is .361, which is the worst of his career and bottom 9% in the league. By comparison, Fedde's xwOBA is .372 (bottom 6%) and Anibal's is .307, and the MLB average is .320.
Admittedly, he's pitched better since being converted to a starter. But I don't think we can just throw out the 41% of the innings that he's thrown as a reliever. They are still relevant to overall evals about Ross' performance.
Also, I think both Dezo and Bx are right. Dezo is absolutely right that the bullpen is much better than it was to start the season. That being said, the Nats bullpen still has the third worst Win Probability Added (in their case, Win Probably Subtracted!) even if you pick a date like June 24th to the present (June 24th is around the time they replaced Rosenthal with Rodney). Their WPA of -3.2 during that span is only better than the Rockies and Brewers. So the 'pen is still quite bad, though maybe not 'terrible'
Anyways, can't change what's done. Fingers crossed Boston and Cleveland (and...Miami?) can do us some favors this week...
We were saying the bullpen wasn't a dumpster fire...?
I'm not a Davey hater, but last night was on him. My theory is that Davey has a plan A. Unfortunately, if things don't go according to plan then he has no plan B. I would have left Strasburg in. He was only at 94 pitches. If Strasburg gets into trouble then Hudson could come in. Suero is either great or bad. After the first guy got a hit and then went to second on a wild pitch, then you know it was bad Suero night. He didn't pull him after the walk. Bringing in Hudson with the bases loaded and no one out was not fair to Hudson. Don't get me wrong Davey is part of why the Nats are where they are - bc he connects with his players. Unfortunately, he is pretty weak in the strategy department.
Jay, I totally get what you're saying. But DM said that Stras was "done at that point." What does that mean? Who knows, but it sounds like it was a mutual decision between the pitcher and the coaching staff. At that point, his plan A was Suero. I personally would have gone with Rodney (particularly if Strickland wasn't going to pitch yesterday). Then you're saving Hudson for the 9th. But whatever--Suero doesn't suck. Fine.
If, as you say, DM erred once Suero threw the wild pitch by not putting Hudson in at that moment - then Hudson would have had to be warming up before the 8th inning even started. Isn't that a big complaint we have with DM in how he overused Doolittle this year? Having him warm up almost every other game, whether he pitched or not? You can't put a new pitcher in at the first sign of trouble unless he's ready, and it usually takes a couple batters to plan ahead like that and get him hot.
I'll meet you halfway and say that the mound visit with Suero should have taken longer and they should have pulled Suero after the walk, not the bunt. After the bunt base hit, it was too late and unfair to Hudson. But when you always have to have a plan B, that means you are always warming up a guy to get him game-ready. Up/down/up/down hot/cool down/hot/cool down destroys a reliever in the long run. Its tough to manage that from both the player and the manager's perspective. Suero could just have not been a complete train wreck and we wouldn't be mentioned DM at all. There's always that.
Again, my favorite rule of thumb: +/- 4 runs. We scored 1 run. Gave up 4. Not the pitching staffs fault. Archer left after the first inning, giving way to a taxed Bucs bullpen from the beating on Monday to pitch the remaining 8 innings. How we manage only run against that group is beyond me, but I guess that's baseball? With our bullpen, 1-0 games are never safe. We needed score more yesterday.
@Ole PBN: Excellent analysis. I agree with you completely. It's tough to win baseball games. I think Rodney would have been the better choice in the 8th, but I have no knowledge of the head-to-head match-ups. And, look, Suero has to do his job. He failed. And, as you note, one measly run isn't going to cut it. Especially after the starter is pulled after one inning.
What OlePBN and PotomacFan said. Too many LOBs/Pickoffs?, not sure why the stole Trea when they were clearly setting the catcher up pre-pitch to throw him out (though that was a perfect play by them, kudos). Bad luck BABIP, poor contact from a few bats. I assume Stras pulled himself, Suero could have had a double play on that bunt if fate was on our side.
Weird night of baseball across the relevant NL matchups. Even the losers get lucky sometimes (right??? please?).
Out of the last 12 games, offensively, they had 1 game where they had bad luck on balls in play combined with poor situational hitting. The other 11 they mashed. They were savages. I will take one clunker out of every 12 all season long.
Post a Comment