If we want to be completely straight the goal for the Nats is "don't get swept". Even losing the series 2 games to 1 wouldn't impact the Nats much. They sit now 2.5 games up on the Mets (and Phillies), 2 games up on the nearest WC competitor. Worst case going 1-2 in the next three is that they are 1.5 games up on the Phillies, 2.5 on the Mets, and still tied for the top WC spot. That's fine.
But really the Nats would be well served to blunt the Mets momentum. I don't know why it feels this way but the Mets are a team of runs. Maybe that's a 26-12 run at end of 20-15 to help salt away the division. Or maybe it's a 5-11 run at the end of 2007 to fall out of the playoffs. Whatever it's the top or the bottom, it seems like the Mets are always streaking there. To me, irrationally, it feels like the Nats can stop the momentum and maybe put them on a streak back down. Just because that's how the Mets play.
The Mets offense is clicking now with three above average, young(ish) talents. Alonso is the masher, McNeil is the bat on ball guy, Conforto is the all-around hitter. But beyond that they have issues. They keep trying to fit in Dom Smith and something keeps getting in the way. Currently he's hurt. They like JT Davis but unlike the first three there isn't a strong belief he can keep this up. Ramos, Frazier, and Rosario are all average production wise. The 8th guy out there, be it Guillorme, Hechavarria, or Lagares is terrible. (Sometimes it's not just the 7th guy though as you may see two of these guys at the same time for the defense). It's a top heavy lineup that can be survived by dominating the bottom of the lineup.
Relief wise the the Nats have one pitcher performing well in Seth Lugo. Justin Wilson has a decent ERA but that's not backed up by the fancy stats. Gsellman looks like filler. Diaz is fighting his head. The rest has been terrible. If you can get the starter out in under 7, or really if you have it close late, you got a chance to take the game.
Match-ups.
Strasburg vs Stroman - After a long dominating stretch Stras was awful last time out. But I like to give guys one bad start here and there without turning on them. Stroman did not have a good first start but is a solid pitcher and you know I love AL -> NL moves. Anyway, you give the edge to Stras here.
Corbin vs Syndergaard - Corbin, like Stras, was off last start, but you still got to respect the like 8 game stretch with a below 2.00 ERA that preceded that. However, Syndergaard has been that dominant and didn't have a bad start last time out. So he gets the slight edge.
Sanchez vs deGrom - Sanchez bounced back after his worst outing since April with his best outing since June. But still he's not deGrom and deGrom is 15 starts into a 2.00 ERA run with 115K and 21 BBs in 91 innings. This is a game the Nats could win but not a game you want to go into with the Nats having to win because the SP has to favor the Mets.
Pitching match-ups go 2-1 in favor of the Mets but the line-up and bullpen, amazingly, both favor Nats. it's useless to predict baseball but if I have to put something out there I say the Nats win 2. It should be a very fun series with low-scoring pitching dominance giving way to late inning fireworks (which means it'll be 3 blow outs against the starters and dominant RP bc that's the way it goes)
34 comments:
If the Nats go 1-2, won't the Mets be 1.5 behind them?
At any rate, feelin' uneasy about this series. Seems like we're catching the Mets when they're hot and we're not 100%. Of course, the team in general is in much better shape than last time they were in Queens.......
Would love to get 2, but as long as they don't get swept, I'm ok with it.
Also, what is the reasoning for JD Davis not perceived to be able to keep up his pace? Devin Fink has this to say about him:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/j-d-davis-is-leading-the-mets-charge/
Concluding paragraph:
"This is what makes J.D. Davis so exciting. Not only does he have elite power, but he has finally added the contact skills to make noise. For a Mets offseason that looks as dark as it does even today, Davis is one major bright spot. And what an important bright spot he has been."
As a Nats fan from NY, I am looking forward to seeing Citi Field packed on a Friday night. That being said, I am nervous as hell about this series and agree that the goal is to not get swept. I am thinking tonight is our best chance at a win.
Citi Field was electric this week when the Marlins were here...this weekend series is going to be quite the atmosphere...
GCX - yes! I did bad minusing! 1.5 behind Nats. (and also worst case is half game up on Phillies)
On JD Davis - just doesn't have the major league history yet. He certainly could keep it up but the .354 BABIP plus the 70 previous major league games gives you pause (unlike Conforto's and Alonso's reasonable numbers or McNeil's numbers last year giving this year's some backing) I'd also say Alonso isnt' going to hit THIS many HRs but he could be at 30 easy so it's a little nitpicky there.
coolsny - tonight is big in part because it cools everything down a bit in that regards and also puts a little bit more pressure on the Mets, just a little but every little bit helps.
Rendon back in lineup. For once Nats did the smart thing and pulled out there best player and hes actually okay.
@Harper
do you have any fancy stats on Mickey Calloway's blood pressure? can we get some home/away splits, or readings from when BVW is in the building vs. not in the building?
this guy has had a whirlwind season lol
Wow, for once the Nats training staff was right! Now, who thinks Scherzer will pitch in August?
@Treaples69 don't talk too early. It would be very nats staff like if they make him a game time scratch and then he's day to day for another month or two
I can see the NYPost headline tomorrow: "Time for NL East to Panik" after he wins it on a walkoff.
I'm not saying I want this to happen, but it kinda feels right, doesn't it?
Anyone want to guess why Doo was still out there at the end to give up the single?? Most people will probably blame Martinez/Doo I'm going to blame the offense. They had 13 hits, were absolutely piss poor with RISP (2-13), had 1st & 2nd 0 outs and 1st & 3rd 1 out in the 9th up 5-3 and were lucky to score that 6th run on the 2 out wild pitch, should've been up a lot more than 6-3 heading into the bottom of the 9th, and then it probably doesn't matter. This seems like the David Bote grand slam from last year, hopefully it doesn't snowball like last year. Take the next 2 games, win the series, and finish the road trip 6-3, everyone would sign up for that, right??
I blame the Curse of Goggles. It is written in the tablets of the baseball gods that someone must surrender late-inning dingers. This curse has been passed down to Blake Trienen, A.J.Cole, Aaron Barrett, Sammy Solis, Shawn Kelley, Austen Williams, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Grace, Kyle Barraclaugh, and now the worst of all possible victims, Doo. I don't know how we'll ever break the curse, but until we do, we're DOOmed.
I thought to myself as the game ended, have we ever had a loss that hurt more???? And the very quick answer was "Unfortunately, yes. Several." Game 5 against the Cards in 2012. Game 2 against the Giants in 2014. Speaking of which, the ghost of Joe Panik returned to panic yet another first-time manager.
You want to know who to blame? Simple answer is the 4-run rule. Offense scores less than four runs and loses, its the offenses fault. Offense scores more than four runs and loses, its the pitching who is to blame. It works in just about every loss we've ever had. The league average over decades has been around 4 runs/game. A quality start is defined as at least 6 innings giving up 3 runs or less. Strasburg did that. Our bullpen gave up the same amount of runs in 3 less innings, all surrendered by one guy. Last night was the pitching staff's fault, more specifically the bullpen, even more specifically Doolittle. Don't blame Martinez for not putting in Rodney - do we all forget him unraveling the same way? We scored 6 runs last night. I don't care if we should have scored 9, our pitching can't give up 7 runs and expect to win a game.
In other news, I heard Doo's postgame comments on the radio this morning that he knew it was going to be a bad night when he looked up at the radar gun in the outfield and saw he was throwing 91-92. Says that made him overcompensate and try to throw harder, missing spots. Amazing how even the sharpest of relievers can let such a thing impact how they pitch. How ridiculous. He did it to himself.
My mistake, the bullpen gave up 4 runs in 1 2/3 innings. Stras gave up 3 over 7. But it’s the offense’s fault for sure, Max David. Right.
That is by far the most painful loss of the year so far.
We now have the second most painful loss of the season. Starters are going to have to suck it up and throw 150 pitches and complete games. I'm being sarcastic here, folks.
I’ll be consistent. We lost (again) tonight, but this time it’s because we didn’t put up enough runs.
... That being said... I am so beyond tired of these smug umpires not being held accountable for atrocious calls behind the plate. If anyone wants the latest example, take a look at Brett Gardner’s ejection during Friday’s Yankee game. Players, managers, fans... everyone else is expected to behave and conduct themselves to a specific standard. Umpires? No accountability and it’s a joke.
Gah. I’m taking a break from the Nats for a week. Wake me up when they’ve blown the wild card lead.
As a Mets fan...I respect the hell out of you guys. I really do, because the Nats fans on this blog are insightful, diehard fans, and you guys deserve a winner. I know you do, because Mets fans are the exact same way. There are more of us, because NY is a bigger market, but you guys have the passion and the knowledge to create the same experience in your ballpark that the Mets have in theirs
Being a Redskin fan is much easier than being a Nats fan. The Redskins have a dearth of talent and are out coached on a weekly basis. The games are usually over by half time and you never have to worry about some kicker hitting a 52 yard field goal at the buzzer to ruin your Sunday afternoon.
Before the season starts you know there is no chance for the playoffs so when some DB blows a coverage and loses a game, you know it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. There is no agony of defeat because you know the first round draft choice is going to provide more hype than hope.
Things are much simpler for Redskin fans. I'm glad football season is just around the corner.
With all of these bullpen moves Rizzo made on July 31, why the hell is Fernando Rodney pitching in the 8th inning in a 1 run game?? And more importantly, why hasn't he been DFA'd yet??
One thing I will add though is that, wow, Harper actually thought the NATS had the advantage in the bullpen?? Good lord lmao
We beat up all three of their supposedly superstart starters. Doolittle chokes a three-run lead on Friday. Rodney chokes a one-run lead on Saturday. Doolittle manages somehow to hold a three-run lead on Sunday...but Soto gets hurt. Losing him would be nearly as bad as losing Rendon.
(@Max: Rodney hasn't been DFA'd because ever since he signed with the Nats, he's been legitimately good--arguably the second-best reliever in our pen after Doolittle. Even with the three new guys he wouldn't be going anywhere.)
Didn't get swept, and Soto's ankle is only a mild sprain--and he's 20 years old, so no problem.
It could have been worse!
Well, we ended up 1-2... Felt like we outhit them by a mile this series, but really its just the blown save Friday night that made this series sting (along with how fired up the Mets fans are, that stadium was nuts). Can't blame Doo - Mets put it to him Friday, and have been hot. Also, the one knee HR off Stras was unreal. Do you think they can keep it up? Seems like they've been surviving on clutch hitting and a lot of stranded runners.
Inches away from a sweep either way, but I'm oddly hoping Atl puts an end to the Mets upswing.
When Ramos was our catcher I expected him to drop throws from the outfield or the cutoff man. He did it as regularly as the sunrise. But a ball thrown from the on deck circle? Wow. We're a little lucky today, but I'll take it. The dang Braves series in Atlanta should have been ours 3-1, and the one in Washington should have been ours 2-1. Now this one that should have been at least 2-1 for us gets away. I hope the baseball gods will even things up later and we'll win a few that by all rights we should lose.
We're 6 1/2 back of the Braves now. But my gosh, when you think at what could have been in the last two weeks. Just three more wins THAT WE SHOULD HAVE HAD: one against the Braves in Atlanta, one against the Braves in Washington, and Friday night against the Mets. The Braves would be 68-52, we'd be 65-52, a game and a half back, and dead even in the loss column. HOW FRUSTRATING CAN THIS SEASON GET????????
@Sammy Kent - I agree, but let's be real, over the course the season the Braves have been a better team. I think we can take them toe-to-toe, but with now months of missing Max, Tony, Trea, and the worst BP in baseball, we're right about where we should be.
It's frustrating to see the Mets regain form, but I'm curious how they'll handle a now quite tough few weeks ahead. Doo's Friday is more painful than the other losses. The rest is just baseball and the pen we were born with this season unfortunately.
Reset the lux tax, and maybe the Lerner's will front load for once to take on the tax hit in one year to pay for BP (+ Sign tony, extend Soto, pay a ton up front?). If you think the window is 2 years anyways, will make the out years cheaper....
The Braves are a slightly better team, but not by much. the Max injury is what has kept the division safely out of reach. think of all the games we would have won if Max hadn’t gotten hurt coming out of the break. I think we’ve won 1 of his times around out of like 6, 2 of them against the Braves that a healthy Max would have likely won one of them. Plus the Rockies game we lost bc max wasn’t right. I think we would be 3 games better in standings and Braves would be at least 1 worse and possibly 2. Closing gap to like 2 games.
I'm sorry but I just don't think losing Max has been the issue. The Nats have scored 44 runs in the month of August, good for 10th in the NL. We have a gaping hole at 1B and C. Robles, aside from his insurance homer yesterday, is hitting .143 the past two weeks. Max has ZERO to do with our offensive woes. This team has shown that they are eminently capable of losing games in which Max goes 7IP with 2-3 runs.
The Nationals losing Max for this period has been like a patient with pancreatic cancer spraining his ankle. The ankle will heal but the patient has much bigger issues.
@cooslny - I'm not sure where you found the August stats, but you're talking 11 days of which we've had 2 off days. I think we've been probably slightly above average in RS, and would be leagues happier if Friday was a different tune.
Robes is doing his best Bernadina unfortunately, I miss Howie at 1B. Still, I'd imagine at the beginning of the season, if you said "Nats are leading the WC despite Max, Hellickson, Trea, Tony, even Howie missing months of playing time and with the worst BP in MLB (maybe not the worst anymore)", you'd say we're exactly where we should be. All of those injuries have probably cost a win (maybe Howie and Helickson combined is 1 win, but still).
We're in the drivers seat, I think the offense is actually top half of the NL as it has been all season, and it's just getting that killer instinct again down the stretch to close out the WC. Maybe we can break Max's nose again. But if not, let's start today with Cinci.
@Anonymous
Lol the assertion still holds up in Runs per game. We're 9th in runs per game at 4.8. That's below average in a 15-team league!
And yes, so far this month we're in the top half in the NL but only barely, and not hitting the ball hard at all.
Only a physical altercation between Davey and an umpire will spring this team into a hot streak
@coolsny - definitely frustrating when you see a box score where you have 3x the hits and still lose like this weekend. Still I'm holding that folks are perfectly content if Friday goes our way and we end the RT 6-3. I didn't watch every game, but it seemed like we made pretty good contact, just bad luck on BABIP? e.g., line drive with runners on second and their that gets snagged out of the air by a great timed jump from the SS (my lone exception, Friday night when Tony's triple led to the most Mets play ever in the OF).
I'm not saying Max or offense is the reason for not getting there, just that we've always been a pitching first team with solid bats, and over the course of the year we've gone without some of our best in both spots.
Over this season we're sixth in the NL behind LA, ATL, CO, Arz. and Chi. Switch Arz with the Brewers and that's probably the exact order predicted. I assume rest of month we'll level out, had a lot of runners LoB of late that usually corrects itself.
The Nationals are 5th in runs scored (keep in mind they were missing their 2-3-4 and 5 hitters for weeks. and 5th in runs allowed (which includes the timeframe when Rosenthal and Bearclaw were giving up infinte runs). Do you guys look for whatever "who is me" stat fits your narrative?
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