Nationals Baseball: HFA

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

HFA

Have I given up on HFA? Nah. But I don't really care about it. A big part of that is I don't live in the DC area so what do I care if the Nats play at home or not? But beyond that - home field advantage hasn't really lived up to it's "advantage" in the past. In the 14 single WC games played so far the away team holds an 8-6 lead.

Of course that doesn't mean it favors the away team, but it obviously doesn't punish them. It's a single game, played between two good team, under different strategy then all year long. Who knows what will happen?

Of course if you care if the Nats get HFA because you might go the thought process is as follows. The Brewers will probably end up with around 90 wins. They play two teams they are better than - the luckless Reds and the hapless Rockies, but play them away. 4-2 would be a reasonable expectation. The Brewers also own the tie-breaker between the teams going 4-2 against the Nats during the regular season*

To get to 91 wins the Nats have to finish 5-2 in these last 7. That's possible but 4-3 or 3-4 is more likely.

The Brewers hold the cards here. They finish strong and the Nats are boxed out of HFA. 


*The Nats were pretty much night and day going 45-21 against sub .500 teams and 41-48 vs .500 and better. Although by runs they did score as many as they gave up against the .500 teams.  Of course this figures in the Phillies, who the Nats have handled this year (10-5, outscored by 24 runs). Remove them and the Nats record is 31-43 and they are at a clear scoring disadvantage, although not THAT much.  Phillies can still finish under .500 so we'll see!

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Harper I agree that HFA isn't a big deal in the WC game unless you are someone who wants to attend in person.

Query whether you think it's a (slight) advantage for the Nats that the Brewers play their final series in Colorado? There's some reasonably compelling evidence that pitchers have a post-Coors Field hangover. I don't know how the Brewers' starters are lined up, so it's at least possible that whomever they start in the WC game won't have pitched in Colorado. But surely some of their key bullpen pieces will have pitched, especially if they value HFA, which is unlikely to be decided before the final series.

cass said...

HFA magic number is 7. If they lose the afternoon game today, then it flips and the Brewers magic number is 6. That's how I see it and I care cause I have tickets to the game and would rather see it on person than on TV. But no, it doesn't matter much in terms of the Nats chances to face the Dodgers in the NLDS.

It's funny to imagine if there were no second wild card - the Nats and Brewers would be locked in an exciting struggle for the wild card this last week and if they tied, they'd play a one game playoff which would basically be a wild card game anyway. The 2nd Wild Card has completely killed the excitement in the last week of the season this year for the NL.

Treaples69 said...

Reds are pitching Gray and Bauer in this series. Bauer hasnt been amazing but he is still a tough matchup and gray has been one of best pitchers in 2nd half behind flaherty. Phillies looked pretty lifeless yesterday and they may sit realmuto for rest of year. Obviously home field doesnt matter as much but getting some mojo back is important. Also nats have a much better record at home but i dont know how much that is skewed by 19-31

Sammy Kent said...

My secret fear is that the Nats will host and start Max, while the Brewers play a hunch and start Gio Gonzalez, who promptly pitches a complete game two hit shutout in the park he called home for so many years.

cass said...

The Nats have to have both Scherzer and Strasburg ready to pitch the Wild Card game. The bullpen cannot be trusted with the season on the line. If one is not needed, great. Otherwise, if they win. Corbin and Sanchez can pitch in Chavez Ravine for games 1 and 2 and then Stras and Scherzer can handle games 4 and 5 in DC. Corbin will be there for game 5.

If Max has a dominant 7 innings and the Nats have a big lead, then save Stras for game 1 of the NLDS. But I think he has to be available with the season on the line. Piggyback them if needed. This bullpen absolutely cannot be trusted with such a critical game.

Ole PBN said...

I would prefer Scherzer starts. I could see Stras having a rough inning down 0-4 in the 4th inning, and at that point, Scherzers use has little effect. Ride or die with Max; Stras in relief if needed. Plus I Stras only throws 30-40 pitches, he could be available for a game 2 start? Maybe.

Regardless, it is Max's game to pitch, and I agree with Cass in that I trust a Strasburg in relief more than I trust our "bullpen" (or whatever we call that clown car).

Mr. T said...

I agree, cass. WC=game 7. All hands should be on deck.

Should be.

"I'm not really concerned," Martinez said [after Suero blew Sunday's game]. "You know what? I trust these guys."

billyhacker said...

I have WC tickets, so care about HFA. Nats are a better squad, but Brewers are obviously better managed. The WC game on their end will feature at least five of their best pitchers like every other important game they have played (starters are averaging something like 4.2 innings per game). I don't trust DM with a game against a team like that. Also hate how tired our pitchers must be. People seem to be excited that Strasburg is approaching a career high in innings pitched. Seems like a catastrophe to me.

Anonymous said...

I understand the concept of using your best pitchers when the season is on the line, but asking a starter to suddenly become an effective reliever is problematic at best.

Mr. T said...

@Anon, so instead...we'd ask an ineffective reliever to become an effective reliever when the season is on the line?

Anonymous said...

Who can we convince to change the playoff structure to something like the Korean League? I want a doubleheader with aggregate run tiebreaker. Make it an all day event!

Anonymous said...

Why not start Scherzer game 1 today and try to steal a win?

W. Patterson said...

I was going to care about HFA thinking that they'd be starting at a reasonable hour. Looking at last year's start times, however, the games will probably start at 8:00 EDT so one can only hope for a sub-three hour game (since it's on a work night).

As an udpate, I care about HFA because I'd like to see the Nats win it in front of a home crowd.

JWLumley said...

I might care about HFA if I thought the Nats were going anywhere. With this bullpen and DM at the helm, I think best case is they win the Wild Card and lose unceremoniously in the division series.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Magic number keeps on shrinking. With the Phils out of it now, hopefully the Nats get scrubs the next few games and can try to clinch HFA. I personally do care about it from an emotional standpoint even if the stats say it doesn't matter all that much in the WC

Anonymous said...

@ Cautiously Pessimistic - Your absolutely right. Losing a win or go home game is just so much more soul crushing when the team is playing at home.

BxJaycobb said...

@Cass I’m with you 100%. All 3 starters need to be available for the WC game. Plan to use 2 and no pen.

@Ole PBN. Why prefer Scherzer? Consider: Stras is pitching better than Max right now. Stras has a better postseason resume than Max by a long shot (Stras playoff ERA is 0.43. Against Cubs he pitched 14 shutout innings with 22Ks, then Max came in and blew the game.). And Max hasn’t been great in the other playoff series he’s pitched in either. I don’t get why Stras isn’t a serious consideration, given that Max has simply not been himself (3.97 ERA since returning from injury with decreased K rate, inflated BB rate.)

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Add to that post-injury resume a rough 1st inning here...

Sammy Kent said...

Well, well, well. THEY DID IT!!!!

DezoPenguin said...

And now the eternal debate begins: is it more important to secure home field advantage and/or preserve "momentum" and avoid "letdown" by continuing to push the starters down the stretch, or is it more important to be "rested" by giving players like Rendon, Soto, Turner, Eaton, etc. some days off. Cue the narratives!

(For what it's worth, I say start Strasburg on normal rest in the WC game. If you believe in postseason track records as indicative of something, then he has the advantage there, but the plain fact is that Max hasn't pitched like MAX since coming back from injury and he's honestly no better than our third-best option right now.)

SuburbanSteve said...

@DezoPenguin - My two cents, not based on advanced stats or research, but pure fandom-following-for-years experience is that it has to be good balance, not too much rest and not too much pushing. I would hope players and managers understand that, but actually doing it is another thing.

For me, in terms of starting pitching, it sounds like DM is planning on Max. I think Max has been closer to being Mad Max the Great each time out, but he's gone back to being prone to more homers like he has stretches of throughout his career. i think Max thinks he's ready, and I think basically decides it, and I'm fine with that, and even though I'm not in charge of anything at all, I like what another commenters said: Start Max, have Stras ready in the bullpen, because Corbin can start a Dodgers series, and even though they've been better this year than the last two, I hear the still hit lefties a bit worse than righties...

But again, I'm just glad we are where we are now, and for me - based on my early year feelings - I just glad they are in the postseason (although part of me wants the Nats to win a playoff series and make a run at the World Series in their first year without Bryce...nothing in particular against Bryce except I never loved his me-first attitude...but it's a little reminder of the feeling when UVA went to the Final Four in college basketball the year after Ralph Sampson graduated and left...)

PotomacFan said...

Strasburg should start the Wild Card game, but I'm 100% sure that Max will start the game. Because that's they way the Nats do things. It won't matter if the Nats don't score some runs. Let's just hope Max doesn't groove any pitches with runners on base.

Sammy Kent said...

Metrics be damned. As Disraeli said, there are three kinds of untruth: lies, damned lies, and statistics. Stras deserves it. The question is not who's a better pitcher. It's who is pitching better. That's Strasburg.

Anonymous said...

There's a decent case to start Strasburg in the WC game, but it absolutely, positively should not rest on past performance in the playoffs. The high-level question is: what information is most helpful in deciding between two pitchers?

The idea that someone would use postseason stats (necessarily a small sample that necessarily occurred a long time ago) instead of a larger amount of more recent information (like performance in 2019, or even since August) is just baffling to me. Does anybody really think Strasburg's performance in 14 innings in October of 2017 is a better predictor of how he'll perform two years later than the 200 innings he's thrown this year (or his most recent 75 innings or whatever)? Michael A. Taylor also performed really well in the 2017 postseason and no one is suggesting he should start over Robles because of that. And Max's postseason stats include innings he threw in 2011, 12, 13, and 14 - innings that took place 5+ years ago. Why is any of that relevant to what the team should do on October 1, 2019?

When both are healthy and pitching well, Max is simply better than Strasburg. It's not clear to me that Max is both healthy and pitching well, however. There are indicators he is - high K games against the Cards and the Phillies and his normal high velocity. There are also indicators he's not at his peak - the DL stint and the homers. Strasburg has been more consistent more recently, but less dominant (also: Stras was throwing 97 consistently against the Cubs in 2017; he doesn't throw as hard anymore, which is not to say that he's a worse pitcher than he was - I point it out just to illustrate that we really shouldn't rely on what he did back then to make a decision now). I think I would rely more on 2019 performance overall compared to the more recent performance in 2019 and would pick Max. But the case for Strasburg is a decent one (that has nothing to do with what happened in October of 2017).

And I absolutely agree that it should be an all-hands situation - if it's a close game, both guys should pitch.

Anonymous said...

"Who is pitching better" is absolutely the right question to ask. So let's ask it, and see if we can answer it. Here's looking just at starts in September.

Pitcher A:

September - 4 starts, 24IP, 1-1, 2.63 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 3.88 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 9.75 K/9, 4.88 BB/9, 3 homers, .196 BABIP, 23.1% HR/FB.

Pitcher B:

September - 5 starts, 29.2IP, 2-2, 5.16 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 2.81 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 13.04 K/9, 1.82 BB/9, 6 homers, .303 BABIP, 21.4% HR/FB.

Both have the same winning percentage, roughly the same IP per start, and virtually identical WHIPs, so that's a wash. Pitcher A has a much better ERA, but pitcher B has a much better FIP and xFIP. Pitcher B's K and BB numbers are dramatically better (which is what's driving the superior FIP, of course). Pitcher B gives up more homers because he gives up more fly balls, but more of Pitcher A's fly balls turn into homers. Pitcher A's BABIP is too low to be credible, so we have to assume his low ERA is being driven somewhat by good (and unsustainable) luck on batted balls turning into outs. Pitcher B's BABIP is perfectly normal, so we can't say his ERA is being driven by bad batted ball luck.

It sure looks to me like Pitcher B has performed better than Pitcher A more recently. Pitcher A's BB rate is probably the single most concerning number. Pitcher B is Max, of course, and Pitcher A is Stras. I would be happy to include more starts - it would certainly make Stras look better in an absolute sense. But it probably wouldn't make Stras look better than Max, because Max's overall 2019 stats are better.

Sammy Kent said...
This comment has been removed by the author.