Nationals Baseball: Who does the "layoff" help

Friday, April 03, 2020

Who does the "layoff" help

Baseball won't be around for a while, and for most of us that stinks. However for a couple teams they may be better off having a year with no (or little) baseball. I mean, as much as any team. This is assuming service time is awarded on a full season given no matter the outcome of 2020.


YES
Royals / Pirates / Orioles / Giants / Tigers / Marlins - 2020 was lining up to be lost seasons for these teams and a year off to simply re-stock the farm even more can't hurt. With few great young players on their rosters already a year off should be more boon than bust

NO
Blue Jays / Padres / White Sox - While none of these teams should compete, 2020 was lined up to be an important year in the development of young talent already in the majors.  A loss of a year of guys like Vlad Jr., Tatis Jr, Li'l Biggio, Eloy are big negatives for teams that are looking to be cheap as well as good. They’ll still compete in 2021 but will lose a chance to be the surprise team in2020

NO
Dodgers - They went all out to win this year in trading for Betts, meanwhile they rely on a ton of young talent in the majors right now. Those are lost years and Betts can be a FA. This doesn't end their run of contention but definitely qualifies as a lost year

MAYBE
Rays - Winning 96 games last year and looking healthy as compared to the front-running, seemingly always injured Yankees, it could have been a surprise year for Tampa. There's no good reason the Rays can't continue to be competitive in 2021 but that hasn't stopped this franchise from mini-teardowns to avoid paying larger salaries and build back up. So who knows

YES
Angels -  Their third best player was hurt, as well as a starter, reliever,  and a potential 5th starter. Another year allows them to shed Simmons contract and get some money to convince the needed ace to come to Anaheim and finish a roster that's never more than 80% of the way there, if that.

MAYBE
Phillies - On one hand JT Realmuto needs to be paid after this year, and a guy signed to be a one year boost like Didi Gregorious is now wasted. On the other this was a team whose construction was off and now can shed 70 million in salary to Realmuto and a bunch of OK guys and rebuild properly.

MAYBE
Yankees - Judge, Paxton, Severino Stanton, Hicks were already hurt so while they were set-up for 2020 with the big Cole acquisition it looked like another injury ravaged year. Sure they'll lose people to FA, some of them key, but signing replacements has never been an issue for New York. Still who wants to lose a contending year?

NO
Braves - On the other hand the Braves are a team that should be hit hard by FA Ozuna, Hamels, and especially the pen Melancon, Greene, O'Day - they seemed to balk at paying  Donaldson - there's no reason to be confident they'll go big in the future

NO
Indians - Cleveland seemed almost resigned to make another go at it and in a weak Central might have had a chance.  A year gone and Lindor another year closer to FA means a total tear down is in order

NO
Arizona - the Dbacks quietly put together a rostettjat should have been 2nd best in the West and given them a better WC shot. But no 2020 means a lot of these guys become FA and the plan to sneak in there before the Padres fully commit is likely over

YES
Astros - the further away from cheating the better. They have their title.

And the Nats?  Like most of the teams not named it’s hit or miss. The time off should help the pitching recover from a heavy use 2019. And while they lose some FA I trust their ability to rebuild... mostly. The one issue would be Doolittle who deserves more cash and may not get it here. Bullpen construction is Rizzo’s bane and without a cheap very good anchor? Meanwhile they lose a year of contention and a year of Soto. And an old pitching staff gets older. I like this for the Nats in 2021 but beyond I think they might find themselves worse off for the missing season.

1 comment:

Natsochist said...

Hey Harper,

How about on a player side? Obviously the layoff is a boon for players recovering from injury, but who's about to get screwed by a shortened or lost season here?

Off the top of my head:
1. Anyone chasing career milestones. I'm specifically thinking guys like Pujols here (656 home runs, was supposed to have two years left on his contract, which gave him a plausible shot at 700 for his career).
2. Players on a non-injury "prove it" contract. Guys like Ozuna who bet on themselves for a year in the hopes of a bigger / multi-year deal last year.
3. Guys entering their contract year who had lousy 2019 seasons.

Anyone you can think of who fits those or other categories?