The Nats are crushing the Pirates. This is honestly one of the easy points in my plan, even though it is a sweep because the Pirates are just that bad. Even with my positive take a couple days ago they are still a clearly below average team playing away. But that's fine! You gotta do the easy along with the hard. Splitting with TB/SF wasn't easy. (I'd say it probably wasn't hard but again I have a low opinion of SF). A hard, but very necessary, part is up next - beating the Mets at home, then coming away at least 4-2 on a six game swing against PHI and MIA.
The Mets of course won again keeping their lead but the Nats should see this as steps. While they are playing the Mets they aren't going after the Mets just yet. First they need to pass the Braves. Then the Phillies. Then you worry about how far they are from the Mets. The Braves have an easier stretch coming up from the 24th through July 11th (CIN, NYM, MIA, PIT, MIA). They'll need to make a move then, which makes the Nats catching them soon of interest. Build a cushion that can survive them playing 3 games better.
Ultimately the Nats goal should be to get to .500 when I stated - just past the ASG. Slightly build on that lead for the 6+ weeks, playing over .500 ball - which doesn't sound like much but would be big as this 42 game stretch has 31 games vs the Mets, Braves, and Phillies. Then CRUSH a 19 game stretch in September against some of the worst teams - PIT again, MIA, COL, and CIN. Go like 13-6, 14-5. Hope there's someone to catch and catch them. This would leave the Nats with like 87/88/89 wins - maybe you get in, maybe not but it's not crazy.
This will be hard to do with no Strasburg and now, no Max (on the IL) but that's the hand you've been dealt. Think of it this way you didn't do so hot with them.
Finish the sweep.
3 comments:
Too bad your plan didn't start a bit earlier in the season.
It's a good bet that Max will only miss one or two starts. Strass is more of a worry.
@Harper. I like your optimism. But I don't share your optimism. In 2019, after their awful start, the Nats had Scherzer, Strasburg, a good Patrick Corbin, a great Anthony Rendon, a great Juan Soto, a great Howie Kendrick, and a strong catching combo of Suzuki and Gomes. As of now, the Nats don't have any of this. No Scherzer (for now), no Strasburg, an inconsistent Patrick Corbin, no Anthony Rendon, a good but not great Juan Soto, no Howie Kendrick, no Suzuki. They do have a very good Trea Turner (as in 2019). Josh Harrison, Starlin Castro, Josh Bell, a diminished Victor Robles, Alex Avila and a bunch of 4/5 starters pitching every day just cannot get it done, even if 100% Max Scherzer returns. Sorry to be a pessimist.
Agreed with PotomacFan. The offense needs to start firing on all cylinders if they want to get through the rest of this season with a prayer of making the postseason. Schwarber's waking up, Soto's at least getting on base even if the power isn't quite there, Trea is great, Zimm is great when he plays, but 2-3 of the mediocre bunch of Bell, Gomes, Robles, Harrison, Castro, Avila, and Hernandez need to start stepping it up.
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