The shortened Spring was going to give us a flurry of moves and even a team like the Nats, presumably out of it and rebuilding, would be involved in someway. They haven't disappointed making one of the biggest signings so far (granted there have been very few BIG signings post lockout). Let's review what they did
Steve Cishek - Nats signed this submarining righty reliever to a 1/1.75M deal. They NEED relievers so this is no surprise. Cishek is mostly good? Probably? His ERA always seems better than his FIP which is good because his 3 year FIP paints him as middling at best. He doesn't have great control. He doesn't strike out a bunch. But his delivery is hard to square up leaving things to the gods on when those few hits fall or when he blow a pitch. Hard to see him being unusable, might be good? That's a good signing for that price.
Ehire Adrianza - Utility player who has been consistently... usable since 2016. He is a contact hitter who doesn't K, or walk, or hit for power, or high average. But he plays decently all over the field and the average is ok. At 1.5 M you think he's bound for the majors but the Nats are now stacked with just decent utility players who'd normally fill out the last spot on a teams 25 man. Want a take? Nats are willing to deal Kieboom (a bad season away from being untradable) AND Garcia (mildly disappointing so far but very young so still intriguing to Nats and other teams) and doing that would leave two IF roster spots to fill.
Gerardo Parra - Baby Shark guy was here last year and stunk then. AAAA filler who might get another chance to be brought up for cheap pop.
Anibal Sanchez - There's some excitement for his return on a minor league deal but there isn't any reason for there to be. After catching a late career rebirth for a couple season with the Braves and in a lesser way on the mound but greater way in the title getting with the Nats Sanchez was terrible in 2020 and no one wanted an old formerly terrible now terrible again pitcher in 2021. Chances of him being terrible are very good and while I dislike Fedde and Rogers and Espino they aren't likely to be TERRIBLE.
Nelson Cruz - the big deal. The guy has been one of the premier HR hitters for over a decade now. He's close to 500 though very unlikely to get there this year. He doesn't walk too much (but has gotten a little better at that), he does strike out a bunch but not a crazy amount especially in this day and age. He should make good protection for Juan Soto. Should. Ultimately with a guy like Nelson Cruz you can't ignore the fact he'll turn 42 halfway through the season. At this age guys lose it overnight. There is no ability to compensate for an injury or for the loss of a skill.
And worrying is the 2nd half stats of .221 / .279 / .438. He still hit homers - 14 in 62 games which would be 30+ for a season, but that's all he did and given he's a DH, flawed hitter is not exactly what you want.
For a team trying who needs a DH Cruz is still a decent gamble. He will be bad. Probably some season soon. But he was good last year and he only needs to be good this year for you. But for the Nats I'm not sure. Are they trying?
It makes them better. There's no denying that so for the fans in 2022 this signing is a good one. Does it make sense beyond that? We have to see what else the Nats do/
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And now Doolittle. Rizzo seems to be organizing some type of homecoming for the veterans. Maybe Zimmerman will change his mind like Brady, too. Hard to get too excited about all of these vets coming back, but they are all short term contracts that can be flipped for younguns. Seems to be some sore of a plan here.
Aaron Sanchez too, I like this group of moves. They need depth even before Ross had a setback.
Eh, I like these moves fine, but they are cumulatively increasing our chances of playing meaningful games in september by like 2% (and that's all because of Cruz).
So the relevant comparison for me isn't doing nothing, it's spending up to the cap. Right now we're looking to have like $80 million of room and, I guess your mileage may vary, but I think that just goes into the Lerners' pockets and doesn't get time shifted to future seasons.
I want Correa and/or Freeman, but I don't think we're getting them.
These moves are very much "if Stras/Corbin/Ruis/Thomas/Robles/Kieboom/Garcia/Gray" all meet/exceed expectations, then the Nats are contenders. Otherwise, you've thrown a lot of darts at the dartboard and you can plan to flip at least a few of those pieces at the deadline.
Which, to me, is exactly the play Rizzo SHOULD be making. This team has an expected win total of maybe 75 wins? But with stupid high variance due to all the young talent. The problem with the Nats youth is they've all lowered their floors significantly the last few seasons...so don't lock down your books for extended periods and, if you're going to spend a lot this year, make sure it's only on 1-2 year contracts
I actually like these moves. To me it feels like they are moves to acquire trade assets when the Nats are out of contention. I could easily see Cruz, Cishek, Doo, etc being flipped for younger ??’s. I feel like they are trying to set up contention for seasons 2023-2024. It’s in those off seasons when you spend big money. Hopefully the first big money acquisition is Soto for the rest of his life and then maybe some of these young guys that they have or that they will acquire hit. But at least for this Ruiz, Soto, Cruz, Bell doesn’t sound like too bad of a 2-5 lineup.
Wouldn’t it be awesome if Thomas, Robles, & Garcia all turned into what they could be or should be? Then you’d have a really good lineup. Assuming all else stays the same.
If they made a big money signing I would prefer Freeman. He should age well and would really solidify the middle of the order.
I guess that's right. There just aren't free agents available where we can spend the $100M we have under the cap and get the 12-15 wins we'd need to expect to contend.
And I agree that it's better to give playing time to young players with an upside and maybe we'll get lucky with some of them.
But it just kills me to have this team, that can obviously afford to spend more, sitting more than $100M under the cap.
Do you think there's any way to use that to front load a Soto deal?
Like what if we offered $180M over 2 years, and then a team option of $240/12 years with a $50M buyout or something. All in, $420M/14. The team option would effectively be $190/12, so it's almost certain the team would pick it up, though it's not fully guaranteed, which means the cap hit is $90M the first two years, and then 20M the rest of the deal. (It also means Soto is taking nonzero risk, so this would need to be for a higher total amount than a normal extension. So maybe these numbers are bit too low.)
But there should be a way to structure it so that we can use this cap space to pay Soto more while reducing his long term cap hit.
Every dollar under the cap not spent is a goddamn waste.
Would be the ultimate karma-clearing deal to frontload a contract for once, but there's real value to that as a business (especially as interest rates tick back up) that I highly doubt the Lerner's will do
I'd love a play for Freeman. I doubt it happens, but that feels like a Werth signing whoever gets him.
ADRIANZA--Doesn't walk, doesn't hit for power, doesn't hit for high average.
PARRA--Stunk.
SANCHEZ--Terrible.
CRUZ--Will be bad.
God, I love this team! (But I love your blog more, Harper.)
Werth was exactly what I was thinking. Skill set should age quite nicely. Probably cost a pretty penny, but I bet he lives up to the contract he get. (Relatively speaking)
He would still be good when Soto’s big dollar years and hopefully best years happen. Kinda like Werth and Bryce should’ve been….only WAY BETTER. I know it’s a pipe dream. But just think of a 2023/24 lineup with a FA slap-hitting SS, a great contact hitting Ruiz, Soto, Freeman, insert hairy-armed slugging DH, a revived Robles, legit hitting Thomas, Garcia, incredibly mediocre Kieboom….it’s perfect….only need like 5 question marks to pan out perfectly and for the Nats to spend a boatload of money.
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