Well EdDC reminded us that the draft is different in 2023 with order for the first six picks being decided in a draft lottery among all teams that didn't make the playoff. Why? Because MLB is dumb and they assume teams are tanking for better picks when really they are tanking to save money. The better pick is a bonus. While higher picks are more likely to succeed baseball isn't basketball. A #1 pick alone can't change your team. Not even close.
If you want to know the odds they are spelled out completely here
For those too lazy to click over the Nats chances of getting each pick (assuming they do finish last) are
1st : 16.5%
2nd : 15.6%
3rd : 14.5%
4th : 13.2%
5th: 11.6%
6th : 9.7%
7th : 19.0%
Yes, the Nats would almost have a 1 in 5 chance of picking 7th. That's a drop from 1st in terms of expectations. But how big? Here's 1st vs 7th for a decade from 2006 through 2015*
2006 : Luke Hochevar, Clayton Kershaw!
2007 : David Price, Matt LaPorta
2008 : Tim Beckham, Yonder Alonso
2009 : Stephen Strasburg, Mike Minor
2010: Bryce Harper, Matt Harvey
2011 : Gerrit Cole, Archie Bradley
2012 : Carlos Correa, Max Fried
2013 : Mark Appel, Trey Ball (BAD DRAFT YEAR)
2014 : Brady Aiken, Aaron Nola
2015 : Dansby Swanson, Andrew Benintendi
You'd rather have number 1 but number 7 is still a good major league player if you don't mess up. Usually someone with all-star talent is around in the 10-15 range. If possible though you don't want to drop out of the first 3 picks. It's a little more certain there, especially if you pull out some of the "drafted because the Pirates or Royals are cheap" guys
BTW Number 4 is the cursed pick : Brad Lincoln, Daniel Moskos, Brian Matusz, Tony Sanchez, Christian Colon, Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman, Kohl Stewart, Kyle Schwarber, Dillon Tate. Yikes. 2016 was Riley Pint (struggled so much retired but is trying to come back). 2017 was Brendan McKay was actually good but hasn't been healthy since 2019. 2018 Nick Madrigal, also good, hurt in 2021, flopping this year. Cursed I tells ya!
*2016 is about where we haven't established talent level yet
4 comments:
Manfred is truly a baseball visionary for all the changes he has brought to the game. After all, a commissioner’s success it not so much about how the changes positively impact the game, but more about the list itself. How many things can you change? How long can you make this list, for The List is all that matters. For this reason, he is a wizard. A Gandalf of our time. He has such a good feel for the game today and what it needs to thrive. The 2023 draft re-org is just another example of how he continues to make the game better. His List would be twice as long if traditionalists would step aside, recognize that baseball has been not okay for 150 years, and just let him change the baseball diamond to a Rhombicosidodecahedron instead. He’s just ahead of his time I think. Still, we fans are just lucky to be alive during his reign. Some day, I’ll tell my grandkids “yes, I remember when Robert ‘The Great’ Manfred was baseball commissioner…”
… and grandson, that’s why it’s important you sign up for moonball this spring. Your grandpa used to watch “baseball” when he was your age, a much more boring game.”
2016 would be Mickey Moniak and Braxton Barrett, both high-schoolers and both (tenuously for Moniak) in the bigs.
Maybe funny now, but the Associated Press graded the Nats' draft that year as A- (same as the Dodgers'). "Kieboom is a perfect fit for the Nationals. He should become an impact player."
Of course, some good players came out of that draft, farther down and primarily out of college. The Mets got Alonso, the Dodgers Will Smith and the Pirates Bryan Reynolds, for example.
College players, on balance, are closer to Major League ready than high-schoolers, but much depends on an organization's player development system, too. (Touché, Washington.)
The Padres are going to finish under .500 again, aren't they?
I dunno about under .500 but I do find it kind of funny that so many people said that their trade moves made them THE team to beat in all of baseball….and here they sit 20 games back for the division. At this point I guess they’ll make the wild card….but it’s really close.
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