Nationals Baseball: Tuesday Quickie

Tuesday, August 23, 2022

Tuesday Quickie

 Just some random notes

How good are the Nats chances at securing the #1 Pick? 

Pretty good.  The Nats currently have the worst record in baseball by a solid 4 games over the Athletics and 6 over the Tigers. The A's have a slightly harder SOS left but only slightly harder. The Tigers have a much easier schedule, as do the Reds (8.5 games ahead).  The Pirates have a hard schedule but a 6.5 game lead. Any of these teams are capable of a hard crash but the Nats have the advantage. 

What it will probably come down to is a three game set with Oakland at home next week. Get swept and the Nats are a shoo-in. 

Is the number one pick generational? 

Sorry no, at least not right now. (There is another season before the draft).  Currently the first 4 guys are pretty consistent in drafts, but the general number 1 - Max Crews from LSU - is a corner OF and the guy with the highest ceiling is probably high schooler Max Clark - another OF.  Guess what you can argue the Nats org doesn't need?  In general it's not an ideal draft for the Nats because it is so OF heavy. That makes the other two picks more likely a SP (Chase Dollander) and a college SS who probably won't stay a SS (Jacob Gonzalez). Make me pick today and either they just go with the best one Crews (hey someone can play 1B) or Gonzalez and shift him to 3B. 

But again a WHOLE another season to get through.  The Nationals' world very own Nationals Arm Race runs down some early 2021 mocks and comparing to the actual draft... you can see that the Top doesn't stay the top. Druw Jones came up very fast. Guys like Jung and Lesko dropped a bit. Let's hope more arms or a great fieldling SS pops up

Did anyone else pop up in the Nats minors other than the guys gotten in trade or the guy we already know? 

Ummm nope. Really more so guys they kind of liked they like less now (see: Rutledge, Jackson). It was very bad and without the trade it would have been terrible because there were no surprises happening. 

Anything else to note? 

Gerardo Carrillo is back. After Aldo Ramirez, who broke, Carillo was the non Ruiz/Gray guy I liked the most as a big arm who might transition to a reliever. Usually the Nats spend too much time keeping these guys in a starting role, but they've moved Carrillo to the pen already.  He probably spends the rest of this year in High A but look for him next year in late innings in AA to give the Nats the thing that it feels like every other team has - bullpen arms in the minors you actually like


Ole PBN said...

This might be a stupid question, but can teams trade down in the draft? Or swap #1s? If this is a bad year to have the #1 overall pick, maybe the Nats could get more picks/value for swapping that #1 in 2023 with another team in need of an OF, then get their 1st rounder in 2024 + our 2024 slot? Only reason I ask is you don't see that very often in MLB but see it all the time in the NFL.

My guess is it has something to do with NFL #1s are more of a guarantee to contribute in some fashion right away, and less so in MLB?

EdDC said...

Beginning in 2023, the first six choices will be determined by lottery rather than by the reverse order of the previous year's standings.

Anonymous said...

@ Ole PBN, MLB hasn’t allowed trading of picks. I don’t think that changes with the tweaks they’re making to the draft.

@EdDC [facepalm] Although a lot of the time there’s not much drop off between the first guy and the fifth or sixth guy in these drafts where there’s no clear #1.

MNB4 said...

I believe MLB allows trading of compensatory picks, but definitely not #1 overall.

It may be moot anyway as the Nats only have a 16.5% chance at the first pick. I’d love to dig in on the difference between 1/2/3 picks over the last decade.