Joey Meneses and Ildemaro Vargas are making the most out of their time with the Nats. Vargas has put up a .317 / .360 / .835 line so far in 24 games, while Joey is raking to the tune of .354 / .385 / .626 in 25. You KNOW this is probably small sample size, the vagaries of which can make a dud look like a stud and vice versa if you look at a short enough time period. You KNOW both are 30+ BUT maybe, just maybe... the Nats got something?
Vargas' story is mostly "few opportunities that he's made the least of". He's been in baseball since the age of 16 (2008!- signed under the W administration!) signed by the Cards but very slow to catch on. He'd be 19/20 before having a good rookie ball year and nothing ever came in A-ball for him so the Cards let him walk. He'd show well enough in the Venezuelan Winter League that the D-backs would take a chance at him and he'd look really good in AAA. But Arizona was loaded with MI talent - Jean Segura, Nick Ahmed, Brandon Drury, Jake Lamb, Ketel Marte - and didn't have a good place for Vargas. The Twins bought him but he didn't catch on immediately so they waived him. The Cubs grabbed him and repeat. The Pirates picked him up but the D-backs, now more devoid of talent got him back. They tried him for about 20 games and nothing so they let him go as a FA. The Cubs got him played him for 10 games and bupkis. They let him go. Nats got him and finally he's having a GOOD short stint. It was bound to happen.
Idemaro is a contact guy with moderate to light power. He's also turned 31 in July and without any other particular skill he's at the whims of the baseball gods, for when his age takes away the ability not to swing and miss. Without patience, power, great D, or great speed, he's walking a tightrope. That's why he's so easily dismissed. But he could be ok for a couple years if left to start and rather than waste money on a Cesar Hernandez type - you could play him. For a team likely to be trying kids out everywhere (or they should) Vargas as the back-up MI makes sense.
Meneses was a Braves signee back in 2011. He had a slow rise culminating in a good half season in A+ ball in 2016 and a decent AA decent in 2017. But at 25 going on 26 and with a defensive profile where he'd have to really hit to be worth playing, they gave up on him. The Phillies signed him and he played very well in AAA, but signing Cutch and Bryce effectively blocked him from having a chance at real playing time with other younger, more complete bats to try. The let him go to play in Japan, he got caught using steroids, then he went back to his native Mexico and he did well enough that Boston kicked the tires on him, but would pass. Now it's the Nats turn and with little else in the minors, he was called up after a decent but unexciting stint in AAA. But something has clicked and he it crushing it.
The short of it is that this isn't his average and he doesn't walk. So how Joey does is going to be based on how many balls he can power over the fence. Historically it's been not enough. But now it's like 1 in 4 fly balls. That won't keep up, but how far will it fall. A tiny bit and with the expected turn in luck on batted balls, he's still good. A little bit and he probably drops an average line - something akin to 2022 Lane Thomas I think. A good amount and he's more like 2022 Nelson Cruz.
If I have to guess I'd say neither makes a real impact beyond this run. Baseball is tough and even guys that are good that are hitting fade away. If you want me to pick one, I'd actually pick Vargas who had years of consistently hitting in AAA while being passed over. I don't think he'd be GOOD, but he could be average and versatile as long as the Nats don't want him to start. He may start, that's the way baseball goes, but that shouldn't be the plan. Joey... well I think this is just one of those runs powered by a freak number of homers and when those go away and the BABIP goes away the Nats are probably left with a middling player at the plate with nothing else to offer.
11 comments:
Is Meneses the only Gaijin ever caught using steroids in the Japanese big leagues?
So you're saying there's a chance they might me good.
Atlanta stumbles onto "Warren Spahn" Strider in the 16th round. Nats muddle through with AAAA rejects.
Has Rizzo simply run out of luck? Or is the team's scouting and player development that bad?
@Nattydread
Dana Brown--remember him, Nats fans?--and Alex Anthopoulos (perhaps the most aggressive President of Baseball Operations in the Majors) seem to stumble onto a lot of good players.
Don't you just hate it when that happens?
I agree this isn't the "real" Meneses, but having watched him throughout this stretch, I think the reason I'm high on him is that he just has a knack for barreling the ball. Even his outs are generally squarely struck. His hard hit % is sitting at a staggering 46%, and in general he tends to swing over the ball more than under it, resulting in lots of grounders but very few pop ups. Big thing is he's getting a lot of straight pitches still, once the league adjusts and throwing more breaking balls, we'll see how he performs.
I think Rizzo's been passed by when it comes to evaluating younger talent. Nats need a 2020s approach and I don't think Rizzo is the guy who can do that. He clearly was good at making trades and lucky/good at signing FAs (and NOT signing some key players who would not have worked out). His throw everything at the wall and see what sticks BP approach was a total mixed bag that worked well a couple of times and didn't others. His lotto ticket approach to drafting (except when he had a top pick) has been a disaster. Atlanta found Strider in the 4th round and Harris in the 3rd. Rizzo has barely hit on anything beyond pick #10 of the first round. I really think it's looking to be more than luck; he lacks skill or staff or something. I really hope the new owner replaces him with someone like what the Braves or Orioles have (if there are folks like that around to hire).
@Unknown,
I think that has more to do with development (another ding at Rizzo) and less to do with talent evaluation. Anybody outside the top 10 in the draft can't really be expected to make the majors. There of course will be players who do, but they could be 2nd rounders or 10th rounders, it's a crap shoot.
The fact that NOBODY in the farm has panned out, though, is telling. You expect a couple of MLB level players to come out of your farm every year or so, and the fact that nobody has for the Nats the last few years is very telling about how players are developed.
Not to beat the dead horse, but pointing at Voth is the perfect example. His comments around biometrics and coming up with data driven approaches to fixing his mechanics is precisely what's missing in this organization, which is why I won't be heartbroken if new ownership pushes Rizzo out. Rizzo is an amazing scout, he has an amazing eye for potential, but he's proven that he can't hire the right people to pull that potential out of players
Drafting is one thing. Developing is another. People seem to forget this team slashed payroll in their player development staff a couple years ago. Now there’s talk of a team sale. Remember when we couldn’t land some big FAs (or extend our homegrown talent) with an offer heavy on deferred money? I feel like the Nats have been losing money for the last several years and the Lerner’s can’t keep this ship afloat any more. I think Rizzo gets a bad rap because he’s the face of front office, but ownership holds the purse. The only major thing I’m pissed at Rizzo about is Strasburg’s contract. Otherwise, he gave Preller an atomic wedgie in Souza for Turner+Ross in 2015. “But that was 7 years ago. Trea isn’t here anymore.” And that is Rizzo’s fault? It was Rizzo who put together all those winning teams over the last decade.
I hope we do get a new ownership group. I hope we get out of this MASN chokehold. I hope Leonsis can make it happen. And I hope Rizzo stays. Look around the league. If you can name 15 better GM’s, then please do. Because odds are could do a whole lot worse. I just feel like it’s typical to blame Rizzo for everything when we’re a victim of a lot of other crap besides having a GM who “doesn’t value player development and analytics.” Where did that rumor start? Is it because someone he’s a former scout so people just assume he’s portrayed as stubborn Grady Fuson arguing with Brad Pitt in Moneyball?
Writing is on the wall. It’s poor MASN restricting the team’s cash flow >> leads to weak contracts offered to FAs + baseball ops staff budget cuts >> poor players development and scouting. Seems pretty straight forward to me. So why don’t they fix it? Because they don’t have the dough, bro.
@Anonymous at 4:58 PM.
I've also wondered if the nats are loosing money, but I don't think that's the case. The reason I think the learners are selling is because they are used to the gold mine that is real estate development in the DC area and don't have the patience or business skills to work out of the current Nats situation.
The Lerner's are selling because their core commercial business is office buildings and malls. They have had to close both Landover Mall and White Flint and lost money when they sold their share in Dulles Town Center. With more and more large corporations workers remotely, they are not renewing leases leading to higher vacancy and less profitability. I do not know if the Nats are profitable or not, but they have significantly lowered player payroll. The opportunity to sell the Nationalt for about 2 billion when they paid 450 million and did not have to invest in building a new stadium represents a substantial return on investment over 5X in 17 years of ownewrship/
The nice thing is that every team needs a utility infielder and Vargas seems a perfectly cromulent choice for that; clearly Garcia (2B) and Abrams (SS) are the intended MI next year, someone has to back them up, and there's no reason why it can't be Vargas instead of some Alcides Escobar/Ehire Adrianza type. I wouldn't want to go into 2023 with him as the starting 3B, but there's no reason to not pencil him as the UTIL for 2023.
Menesnes might be less likely to be "for real," but on the other hand he plays DH/1B/LF/RF, all four of which positions the Nationals have yet to fill for 2023. Hernandez can cover one of those four, but he's 34 and he's exactly a league average hitter which makes him a stopgap of even lower priority than Joey. Thomas is more likely to be OF4 or a CF placeholder than a serious threat to play in LF/RF unless his bat bounces back to 2021 (his recent surge notwithstanding). Voit probably gets one of those slots, but I can't imagine we're going to bring in three players in the offseason that would consign Menesnes to the bench. Joey is dirt-cheap and might be good, so why not play him?
Joey Meneses is the 2020s Mike Morse, he should hit .270/20HR next year if he gets 400 ABs
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