Nationals Baseball: Joey Meneses - superstar, star, solid starter, or sssssfluke?

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Joey Meneses - superstar, star, solid starter, or sssssfluke?

 My... cautiousness with Joey Meneses should be apparent by now.  He absolutely crushed to end the year last year but it was only 56 games, he's 31 years old, and everything before suggests his homer rate was a fluke. And it was his homer rate that was turning a guy that might hang around into something special. Not that Joey can't be good. I think after the season I pegged .280 with 25 homers as definitely possible, even though that was more power than he showed up until last years major league trial. You have to give more weight to the recent data. But a star?

However Joey is still hitting in the WBC.  While Spring Training is Spring Training and everything there can be ignored, does the WBC, where guys are actually trying, mean something? 

My initial thoughts is probably not. While the effort is there the talent spread is huge. Also it's like barely any games. Last year there really wasn't a true one so we have to go back to 2017 to see if there was any connection. I picked out some names of guys that looked to do really well :

Wladimir Balentien (NED) : .615 4 homers

John Andreoli (ITA) : .316 3 homers

Carlos Correa (PR) : .333 3 homers 

Alfredo Despaigne (CUBA) : .474 3 homers

Jurickson Profar (NED) : .464 5 doubles and a homer

Seiji Kobayashi (JPN) : .450

Yurisbel Gracial (CUB)  : 435 4 doubles and a homer

Hayato Sakamoto (JPN) : .417 

How'd they do in 2017?

Wladimir Balentien (NED) : Under contract in Japan, Balentien 32 aged and hit slightly worse than the previous year (about .250 with 30 homers)

John Andreoli (ITA) : 27yo Cubs farm hand he did have a mild power bump in 2017 but at the cost of some average and patience.

Carlos Correa (PR) :At 22 blossomed into a true star - possibly best year ever

Alfredo Despaigne (CUBA) : Same as Balentein except he was 31

Jurickson Profar (NED) : tepid start and got hurt - barely played his 24 yo season

Seiji Kobayashi (JPN) : Middling 28 yo Japanese league catcher hit the same as the year before

Yurisbel Gracial (CUB)  :  31 year old was locked in and had a great year in the Cuban league and Canada.  Wasn't as good in 2016 but was in 2015. 

Hayato Sakamoto (JPN) :28 year old came back to Earth after a break out 2016.  But would bounce back to be great in 2018 


So a bunch of mixed results. For Nats fans I'd say... it's good Joey is hitting because he is such an unknown that any time you can see him hit and confirm what you saw had some level of reality to it, the better. There might be something to his power surge being real which bodes well both for my take and those that like him better. The lack of power shown in the minors might be a thing of the past. While we'll have to see what happens when pitched around (he's not patient) it's just another piece of evidence he should be good this year and maybe great.

2 comments:

Nattydread said...

Interesting comparison between 2017 WBC outputs and actuals. Thanks for doing that.

It kind of shows that small sample sizes lead to random outcomes.

Top 10 OPS 2023 WBC. Recognize any of these?
1. Kyle Schwarber USA 1.933 (3 AB!!)
2. Salvador Perez VEN 1.822
3. Edouard Julien CAN 1.714
4. Yuhei Nakumura JAP 1.714
5. Anthony Santander VEN 1.687
6. Shohei Ohtani JPN 1.684
7. Dilson Herrera COL 1.666
8. Tim Anderson USA 1.625
9. Kensuke Kondoh JPN 1.533
10. Tyler Oneill CAN 1.532


Cautiously Pessimistic said...

I want Joey to breakout strictly because I kept him in my dynasty fantasy league for pennies. Him being good also means more prospects at the trade deadline. He's not going to be a part of the future success of this franchise, so at least get something for him