The Nats are rounding into shape somewhat. Alex "Who?" Call won the 4th OF spot over Stone "Also who?" Garrett.
Call is someone who was impressive in 2021 in AA and in 2022 in AAA but also is old (28 - 29 just before the season ends!) and is mostly there to fill space because there really isn't a good option. He seems comfortable enough to field the corners and if he can hit ok that's a bonus. Garrett is younger (27) and unlike Call who kind of got maybe fluky hot after mostly disappointing in the low minors, has always been a power threat. Unfortunately he isn't really positionally flexible so he had to outhit Call by a decent amount to get the nod and Call out hit him. Wouldn't be surprised to see him up.
The last bench spot is between Michael Chavis, Jeter Downs, and Matt Adams. None of these guys are necessarily good choices but it is interesting because they are completely different choices. Downs (24) is a MI type who can carry himself at SS if needed and has speed, but he hasn't hit in the higher leagues. He's never had a long term role in the majors so there's a sense of the unknown with him. Chavis (27) is more of a corner IF guy though primarily 1B, who definitely has power but can't make contact enough. He's had his chances in the majors including basically a starting role last year with the Pirates and hasn't looked like a starting major leaguer. Last man on bench is about right. Matt Adams (35) is the grizzled vet who hit for a few years in the majors but it's hard to say belongs anymore with the last two major league years combining to play 38 games and hit .177 with 2 homers and that's not counting 2022 when he was in semi-pro ball.
Twist my arm and I say they go with Chavis. Given Adams is still here that 1B back up is what they are looking at and Chavis gives them that and a little more. Downs getting more AAA time in the Nats system so they can look at him more feels right.
The fifth starter job will seemingly go to Chad Kuhl. He's gotten the last start and the other guys that have started a game were either set down or have been pitching in the pen recently. Kuhl is a guy. He started all year for the Rockies. He was not good. But being in Colorado can mess with you. He started half a season with the Pirates in 2021. He was not good. He also started for them in the abbreviated 2020 season. He was not good. I sense a pattern.
If you can say something about Kuhl though is he is consistent. He can give you a 5.25+ ERA without going much over 5.50. That would be better than Fedde did last year (5.81 ERA) or Adon (7.10) or Sanchez (8.33) . Or Abbott as a starter (6.00) or Espino as a starter (5.81 - hey ERA buddies!). He's essentially Josh Rogers who the Nats decided to try to make a reliever last year. Didn't really work.
So I guess you can say Kuhl will be bad, but reliably so, so if the Nats have an exceptionally good hitting day they are likely to be up 8-5 in the 6th as opposed to maybe up 8-7 they would have been last year when the 5th starter was going. That's... something I guess.
The lineup today seems to be what we should expect to start the year
Thomas - Smith - Meneses - Dickerson - Candelario - Garcia - Ruiz - Abrams - Robles.
I'd expect a fair amount of shifting though. No one aside from Thomas is probably feeling wedded to their spot and thus people will rise and fall as their fortunes do.
9 comments:
Chad Kuhl prophecy comes true!
http://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2022/11/offseason-position-discussion-starting.html?showComment=1668787817864#c6048721090934339087
God that lineup looks depressing. This is going to be a very rough year. Maybe Meneses proves to not be an aberration and Robles finally takes that next step, but there isn't a single batter on the roster I'd argue should be any more than a bench piece for a competitive team...
@Pessimistic
Garcia and Ruiz are without a doubt way more than bench pieces. I’m super not excited about this lineup either, but let’s not be crazy. I mean they both had an OPS+ that was league average or so. That’s not a bench player. Leave average is the vast majority of major league ball players, that’s why it’s average. Garcia is a good hitter. Not great, good. And nobody would have Ruiz on the bench, if you have a better catcher then that guy is an all-star and you woulda traded Ruiz by not
@JDBrew, that's why I said "competitive" team. Fangraphs has Ruiz projected for about 15th overall as a catcher (there's a cluster of like 6 guys all sitting at 2.5WAR). Garcia they have pegged behind many bench players, sitting at 1.8WAR which is good for 41st among 2B (granted, a number of the names ahead of him are SS/3B as well).
So I could get behind the argument for Ruiz being a starter on a competitive team, but he isn't in the same league as most playoff-bound catchers, with only Austin Nola and the pair of Cleveland catchers being projected for less value among likely playoff teams. But Garcia is a first off the bench player on most other competitive teams. That doesn't mean he doesn't deserve to start for a lesser team (which the Nats very much are), but he's a bench piece for the Dodgers/Mets/Padres/Phillies
Abrams, Garcia and Ruiz should all improve this year. The amount of improvement will determine how interesting the lineup is for me. If these three occupy the bottom of the lineup all year then .. eek. But if this turns into your 1,2,5 and are producing well in those spots then we've got something.
My biggest concern is that Dickerson and Candelario are done and will continue a downslope. I'm also a little worried that Meneses might be a mirage. This is the heart of the order so a complete bust here would just create an offensive implosion.
Are we more likely to see Hassell or JDLR later this year?
@Pessimistic
Totally disagree. A competitive team doesn’t mean they are great at every position. The top 10 teams don’t have the top 10 players at every position. Garcia and Ruiz, while not stats, are starters on most teams.
You referenced Fangraphs, but I see them projecting Ruiz at 13th among all catchers next year. With 3 guys from Toronto all projected to have 110+ starts at catcher next year (I’m not sure how that happens).
But projections are projections. And not really worth anything. Particularly when looking players this new to the ML level.
All that being said….WHATCHU GONNA DO WHEN ALEX CALL RUNS WILD ON YOU? Ahahahaha
Chad Kuhl expected to be a 5.25-5.50 ERA guy? So he’ll be a full run better than Corbin this year and will occupy the 5th starter role?
I guess that means we’re going with a 6 man rotation then. Nice!
The Nats seem to think an old prospect is the new "on base percentage." They've played that successfully before, and it's a lot more fun, as with Parra (though he was old, not prospect).
I'm looking forward to Meneses and Call.
I've decided to add an AL team to the mix and root for TOR and Vlad Jr :) Will be more fun to watch than WSH
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