Ok well actually it plays poorly but my headlines aren't my daughter. I don't have to correct their grammar. The Nats are now on the feared downswing, 0-4, 2-7, 7-13. The fun little 13-10 run is over and reality is setting in on the fan base and the coverage. The Nats do indeed stink and the fact that there are two other teams much stinkier in baseball doesn't mean much.
But at least the Nats DFA's Machado and Ramirez and have begun the reliever churn I wanted them to try. They need to find depth and nothing about these two screamed needing to keep them around to see if they got back to last years form. It's reasonable to believe both are the guys they pitched like so far this year.This season always was about player development so it's about where guys like Ruiz and Garcia and Adams and Gray and Gore end up. But that also means having patience and checking in every so often as opposed to hanging on every performance.
Right now my daily eyes are on Lane Thomas - is he really this good? That'd be neat; on Patrick Corbin - man he's looked bad again recently even if he did sneak out of trouble yesterday; on Hunter Harvey - there potential there for a click into domination. But the young guys need less frequent checking.
Speaking of young guys, we're starting to get another round of prospect updates and it's not looking good in Nats land. Although as I always say - you need to be cautious with these things as guys go from "superstar to be" to "just another guy" in the course of a couple years of evaluation because this is all just slightly better guessing than you or I could do browsing the stats for a few minutes.
They still love Wood, everyone does. Everyone agrees he can hit for power and if he doesn't get eaten up by Ks he'll do that well in the majors. Everything else varies a great deal but potential lies for superstardom.
But everyone else gets less love. Cavalli is in injury limbo until he's seen after TJ. House has slowed down enough in low A for everyone to temper their early season excitement a bit. Cole Henry looks promising but is due an extended Harrisburg stay to really evaluate him. Hassell continues to progress but slowly enough that people are worrying what his ceiling might be and if he'll have any power. Green's K problems have caught up with him. That's a lot of... not misses per se, but "not hits" for a team that needs hits because they don't have young hits in the majors right now.
It isn't all bad news - Cristhian Vaquero is the new "rank him too high because there's an outside chance he might do something and we want to be able to point to this ranking and say 'See, we know what we're talking about'" guy, replacing Green. I mean like Green this is probably nothing but covering but sometimes you don't have a guy like that at all so it's good the Nats do I guess. Like don't just buy scratch-off, buy a ticket to the MegaMillions if you are going to throw money away. And Drew Millas has hung on to open up a real possibility he could be a back-up major league catcher. While that doesn't seem like much catchers who aren't trash aren't easy to find. Ruiz hasn't had the best year but there are a dozen teams that would trade positions with the Nats immediately given their situations. Back-up catchers who aren't trash are even more rare.
Things are kind of dim right now but it's up and down in terms of development. If you don't like what you see now, it's ok to avert your eyes for a while. In fact it's probably a good idea even if you like what you see.
7 comments:
Given that Hassell is recovering from hamate bone surgery, after which power can be slow to come back, I’m not worried about him as long as he stays healthy and his hit tool holds up. I’m also a bit confused about the idea that House has cooled at single A. It was certainly true last year after he got hurt, but he’s doing quite well so far this year (.306/.379/.515/.894). Most of the talk about House is that he should be moved up to A+. Eric Longenhagen at FG moved House up yo a 50FV prospect and #2 in the system.
I'd say the biggest day to day stuff to track is Thomas and Candelario because we care very much what their value is specifically between 6 and 8 weeks from now. The bullpen guys too, I guess.
At this point I don't see how Smith or Dickerson can get hot enough for a team to target them.
@Anon - do we really see Thomas as trade bait? He's got two more years of arb left, I'd imagine the Nats view him as someone to keep around a bit longer, unless someone's willing to send a top pitching prospect back. Maybe Cleveland's pedestrian offense could use an upgrade and they'd be willing to part with Gavin Williams? Nats would probably have to send a prospect or two their way as well to make that happen
I think you can and should flip Thomas for something like a FV45. For example, Bennett or Rutledge or Susana in terms of a pitching prospect. So a real prospect, but a definite step down from someone like Williams.
I'd be aiming at Parker Messick from the Gaurdians, unless Thomas worked out to be a small part of a larger trade.
John C. - House hit AWESOME in April, but less so in May (.266 / .319 / .422) Nothing bad - that's why the numbers still look good - but slower. I'd be fine with a move up to A+ though and I'm not surprised someone moved him up into their 100. (but also not
Anon / CP - Thomas is the only guy who can be flipped... well maybe Harvey or if Williams goes crazy. Guys rented for a couple months just don't bring anything back anymore. That's just the way it is these days
@Harper -- One thing that might be interesting this year is that there are fewer sellers. If two contenders have gaps at 3rd, maybe we could actually get a decent prospect for Candelario. At least better than rentals have gotten lately. It still won't be anything amazing, but like a solid relief prospect. Some other team's not-yet-injured Brzykcy?
But yeah, other than Thomas, our only shot at a prospect with a chance at 5+ career WAR is for Williams to convince someone he should start a playoff game. Which is to say, don't bet on it.
And a note on House -- FG had him as one of the lower 50s last year too. Their recent writeup on him was glowing, but they didn't change his rating or his ranking in their top 100ish. Also his May was just two cold weeks to start (OPS < .500). Since May 18th, he hasn't been quite as hot as he was in April, but it's close. He's crushing low-A and, all else equal, he's ready for a promotion.
Of course, he's only playing 3-4 games a week (likely kid gloves around his back recovery). And, given last year, maybe there's development value in letting him rake for a while to build confidence. Plus Lipscomb is playing OK but not actually good, which complicates promoting or demoting him to make room at A+. I'd probably still move House up and then figure out the rest but it's easy for a fan to be cold blooded about that stuff.
Harper: "Speaking of young guys, we're starting to get another round of prospect updates and it's not looking good in Nats land. Although as I always say - you need to be cautious with these things as guys go from "superstar to be" to "just another guy" in the course of a couple years of evaluation because this is all just slightly better guessing than you or I could do browsing the stats for a few minutes."
For all the youngsters, but especially for the 18-21's, I am coming to the view that even a full year of play early in their careers should come with the label "small sample size." Whether our minor league development system is good (better) or just mediocre....the Nats, like every other team, are dealing with kids that are still growing, learning, and getting used to a different world than high school baseball (away from family as well as heightened competition). Just a minute thinking about who I was at that age...is a reminder of how far from a finished product these kids are.
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