Nationals Baseball: Monday Quickie - First Base, Second Home Run

Monday, June 12, 2023

Monday Quickie - First Base, Second Home Run

Yesterday Dom Smith hit his 2nd home run of the season, putting him on pace for a whopping 5 for 2023 assuming he plays as much as he has so far. Such a number is usually reserved for slick fielding middle infielders and while Dom plays a pretty good 1B, important for a team with a couple of young guys at 2B and SS, even glove first 1B hit with more power than this. 

In fact, this got me wondering - when was the last time a guy played 1B for so many games and hit so few homers? I'm sure it has happened - the dead ball era did exist - but is there a newwe guy I've forgotten that "slugged" 5 dingers over the course of a year playing the vast majority of his teams games at first?  LET'S FIND OUT. 

Using the simple qualifiers of 150 games at 1B (to grab some pre-162 game schedule guys) and 5 or fewer homers who is the last guy to do it? Was it since the dead ball era ended? 

Well first off - even back in the dead ball era this was rare. Guys hit homers at the time, they were just inside the park jobs. And 1B was still where you put the guys that could crush balls but maybe didn't field well.  So we only see 58 of these. 

As expected most are before 1919 or soon after when Babe hit 29 and changed the game forever*. 31 of the 58 being 1921 or before.  Another 8 are in the 1920s and 7 in the 1930s, and 5 before WWII ended.  That leaves 7 players who played 1B for 150 games and didn't hit more than 5 homers.

Three are in 48, 49 and 50 respectively. First was Mickey Vernon a super well liked player for the original Senators that at times hit for the best average int he league. He'd usually have doubles power though he often went under 10 homers. In '49 it was Ferris Fain who was like Vernon - a higher average doubles power guy.  He also knew the power of a walk having an OBP over .400 his first 7 seasons, peaking at .451, and ending with a career .424 OBP. He got hurt at 33 though and that was that.  In '50 it was Eddie Waitkus. A lesser version of these other two, he did have one thing over them.  He was shot by an obsessive fan and nearly killed. Some believe The Natural borrowed elements of this story. 

After that there is a guy that did it three times. Pete Rose. He was a MI that became an OF then drifted over to 3B, but in 79 he went to the Phillies and Philly wasn't moving Schmidt an all-world defender at 3B for Rose. Rose never hit for power (HR high was 16), and he'd only gotten into double digits once since '71. But Philly had been trying to break through for a few seasons and wanted his leadership. Plus he could still hit for average - he'd only been under .300 once since 1964 and hustled for doubles, he lead the league in 1978 with 51.  In '79, '80, and '82 at 38, 39, and 41 he hit 4, 1, and 3 homers and the only reason he's not on the list for 1981 is because no one played 150 games because of the strike. He did hit 40, then 42 doubles (led NL) in '79 and '80 but in '82 he only hit 25 double despite playing a full 162 and the writing was on the wall. The rest of his career would be an chase down of 4000 then 4191 hits, while the teams tried to play him just enough to get there but not too much to hurt the team

The last guy to do it was also in 1982. The Human Rain Delay Mike Hargrove himself. He could hit (ended his career with a .290 average) and as you could guess by his name, he saw a lot of pitches (and took his time while doing it) ending up with a lot of walks. (.396 OBP).

Defensively all these guys not named Rose were well thought of defenders, though Hargrove had to work on it a lot and Vernon probably wasn't as good as his rep. 

So you can work out why each of these guys got the chance to do this - play 1B with no power. Vernon was beloved and a high average doubles bat. Fain was a less loved high average doubles bat who also walked and fielded well. Hargrove worked to be a good fielder and was a high average high OBP type of guy that drove opposing pitchers crazy with his ABs.  Rose was also still a high average doubles bat and thought of as a driving team leader.

Waitkus is probably the one question but he wasn't a bad player. He hit around .300 with 25-30 doubles, took some walks. He wasn't the plus hitter Vernon or Fain were but he was worth having in a line-up. Maybe you'd get a little bump moving him out for someone but he wasn't blocking stars. 

So what is Smith? He's a pretty good defender but not crazy good. He's shown a flash of hitting for average and doubles but only in the 50 game pandemic season. Other wise he struggles to hit for a good average or for any power (currently at 5 doubles). That makes his stability at first confusing.  

 

But then you go to the last thing I said about Waitkus. He wasn't blocking anyone better. Ultimately that's why Smith is playing right now. There isn't anyone in AAA doing so well that you have to give them a try at 1B in the majors. Maybe if Baker or Millas crush for a few weeks, but that would be a surprise. At the major league level the team likes where Adams is at backing up Ruiz and I don't think they buy he can play 1B or that he's a sleeping great bat, given his age and general contact issues. That leaves Ildemaro Vargas who I'm sure could handle first but the guy is doing well as the anywhere sub spelling everyone with a decent bat. Lose that for a solid everyday bat at 1B? It's probably worth it but in a growing season maybe you care about the time off more?

Smith is on track to do something no 1B has done in over 40 years, hit 5 or fewer homers while playing first full-time for a season. And arguably he's on track to do what no 1B has done since the war. Be a bad offensive player, chasing no history, and still manage to hit under 5 homers in a full season. But for this team in 2023, who is just seeing if something will click and with no one knocking on the door... you can see why. Dom's never going to get an opportunity like this again. He's got a couple more months to find something that's probably not there. Good luck. 

*for reference the AL record was 16 going into that season.


4 comments:

Nattydread said...

Fantastic piece. You really spoil the party.

Carpenter and Frandsen talk the guy's fielding up unceasingly --- and he does make the occasional slick play to back them up. Dom looks good, that's all I can say. If asked to pick out a solid baseball player from a random line-up, I'd choose him.

If continues to receive playing time, my bet is that he gets a minimum of 7 dingers. Just sayin.

Expos 1983 Blog said...

It really would be a ridiculous season if he never improves and just keeps playing. Mid 1980s Pete Rose is a good comparison, and he sure didn't help the 1984 Expos win games.

Mike Condray said...

For a more traditional first baseman the Nationals *could* bring up Matt Adams. He's currently OPSing .848 at Rochester with 9 HR in 47 G/180 plate appearances.

But Matt (as much as we loved his "Big City" contributions for that glorious 2019 Nats squad) turns 35 in August. Ain't no way he's a significant contributor to the NextGen Nats contention window beginning circa 2025 (2024 if a LOT of things break right).

Dom turns 28 on Thursday (Happy Birthday, Dom!). He only has a one-year contract but is under team control (arb-3) for 2025. And as Harper noted, he ain't blocking any youngsters.

So Dom is threatening the "150 G/<=5 HR" for a first baseman is because for the Nats this very much remains a rebuilding year. Dom is a lot younger than Matt, and while it's a serious longshot it's at least possible he reclaims his earlier flash of good hitting. It's not purely a power outage--at least in the sense that Smith *can* hit the ball a long way. His HR vs Atlanta was estimated at 444 feet! Nothing to lose giving him more ABs to try.

That plus he *is* at least a decent first baseman. Even if he just chugs along as he is now his glove can help our young 2B/SS out as they work on their games (which very much ARE important for the 2025+ NextGen Nats).

Kevin Rusch said...

Blake Rutherford is really killing it this year.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ruther000bla

341/390/612 in 141 PAs in AA.
429/500/762 in 24 PAs in AAA. Sure it's a tiny sample size, but he's clearly not overmatched there.

You could DH him and let Meneses play 1B, or shuffle any number of outfielders.