Nationals Baseball: Lotso Rizzo

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Lotso Rizzo

Rizzo has been extended. It's "multi-year" though it's unclear what that actually means. Which means probably 2 years. 

You've been here enough to know my feelings on Rizzo. He trades well. He builds teams decently for the payroll levels afforded him. This includes building a team that could challenge (and eventually win) a title. The international free agency under him has seemed fine. His manager relationships and selections leave something to be desired as he seems to want managers who have old school tendencies but also bend to his will (Davey is ideal here which gives you an idea of why this pairing has lasted so long) He has struggled setting up a working drafting/development team and his own inclinations (bet big on talent underseeded for non-performance issues) hasn't worked out since picking up Rendon in 2012.  

The Nats could probably find someone to do better on the last point but overall would be a question mark.  In other words I think they could do worse pretty easily.

I also think he deserves a chance to see out this rebuild attempt. He successfully built a multi-year contender. Let him try again.  We should know by 2025 if this time worked out or not. If it did, great, extend him some more. If not you can move on if you want to. 

The 2023 Nats though keep stinking it up. They don't have to win today obviously for a number of reasons, but they are currently on a 4-12 run that is mostly deserved. The Brewers, who are up next, are trying to keep the Cubs away and likely view the Nats series going in as a needed sweep. The White Sox of course are trash and could roll over, getting the Nats close to 70.  After that you have a Braves team that has everything wrapped up but are too far out to rest and might have "best Braves team ever" on their mind. Then an Orioles team, who you hope is set. I say 4-8 for those games so win today and you get to 70.

Rutledge was bad yesterday but it's one start and also he probably is bad, at least at the major league level. Keep throwing him out there. Keep expecting losses but keep hoping for something more.  Because Adon and Irvin both have 20+ starts and you can start to feel pretty confident they are who their stats say they are and that is not really a 5 you want to have on a contending team. Now it's Rutledge's turn to confirm or surprise.


Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Yeah Rutledge did not look pretty. Yes there was some bad luck with well placed hits, but he also served up a lot of meatballs. Hopefully it's just some first start jitters

On the Rizzo front, I'd really love to see him appoint some VP of scouting/development that is fully in charge of the draft/minors. He has proven he can't cut it, so just bring in someone to have full control. And no, not Kris Kline, dude has failed upwards.

PotomacFan said...

FWIW, I think Jake Irvin could be an SP5. He throws hard, has a nice breaking ball, and is relatively efficient -- which is critical because it saves unnecessary bullpen work. By contrast, Trevor Williams is toast. And I'm not optimistic about Joan Adon, although management seems to like him.

Jon Quimby said...

Yeah, I'm surprised by the comment about Irvin. He seems like a future innings eater that every good team needs.

Harper said...

I think Irvin is a usable #5 on this team, but this is also like the worst of the "not OMG terrible" baseball teams. On a contender? I suppose he could play - it depends how good your 1-4 are - but in general I feel he's probably more an emergency 5th than an everyday one. A guy you keep in AAA. But this assumes he doesn't get better (which I do assume bc age, evaluation, minor league stats)

Anonymous said...

Our SP5s during 2012-2019 included Detweiler, Fister, Joe Ross, Fedde, Voth and Hellickson. Irvin doesn't look out place in that group, though I'd rank him towards the back of the list.

On a contender, I'd say that having Irvin as the Opening Day SP5 is a weakness but a normal kind of weakness. The kind that almost all teams have. We'd likely be fine, but in preseason a lot of the talk would be about how we're really betting on starter health because Irvin as SP4 and whoever is worse as SP5 would be a serious issue.

Anonymous said...

Typical mismanagement. Extend the Guy who blew pick 1.2 in most recent draft badly.