The Nats traded Robert Garcia for Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. It's a solid, if unspectacular move that makes the Nats better, without giving up too much or costing them a lot of money leaving them the ability to do other things to help the team.
The good is pretty obvious. Lowe hits around .260+ walks about 75 times and hits about 17 homers. That's good enough for a 110+ OPS+ which is good enough for Top 10-15 offense in the MLB (1st base has taken quite a dip). Pair this with a Top 5ish defense at the position and you have one of the better first baseman in the league. In a sense in production he replaces what Jesse Winker would have done for the team if he stayed for the full season, though in a wildly different way, maybe even a little better.
What's the downside? On the Lowe side not much. You could definitely argue that what the Nats were really lacking was power and that's the one thing Lowe doesn't bring. This is something that Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, both signed for about the cost of Lowe, have. He also had his worst power year of his career last year. Is he on the downslide? It's one thing to hit 17 homers. It's another to hit 12.
You can also look at last year and see it's not just luck, pretty much ALL his fancy stats like hard-hit%, barrels, even things related to his patience like chase % went down. If this is the start of a decline he doesn't have too far to fall before he's below average at the plate. And if it was an aberration. one could say the ceiling on Lowe is about as "low" as it could be. He's just good. That's it.
But back to good, Lowe will turn 30 next year so while he could crash next year, you'd be better betting on that from Santana or Goldschmidt. And while Walker isn't OLD (sorry Anonymous commenter) he is old and a better bet to crash thought not to the level of the guys nearing 40.
What about Robert Garcia? I think people are underrating the impact of this move. It's not that Robert Garcia was great. He was a the kind of pitcher that could be special. A lot of Ks, very few homers, and solid against all sides of the plate. But he walked just a few too many and gave up just a couple too many hits and had a bit too much bad luck to be more than good. Can he get to special? Probably! but at 29 next year you generally don't feel bad betting on things just continuing on as is.
No the problem isn't Garcia, the problem is the Nats. Robert Garcia was one of only TWO pitchers that the Nats have in the pen that seemed likely to be good. (Derek Law being the other) Right now the Nats pen is a huge gaping hole and when they are currently relying on a lot of young inexperienced arms and only brought in oft-injured arm to help this spells trouble.
But lucky they have a bunch of money left to help solve this problem!
Soroka was a good move IF they did other things to the rotation. Lowe is just a good move. It's not game changing but it's the type of move that makes sense no matter what the Nats do the rest of the off-season. Hopefully this isn't all they do of course.
7 comments:
Why would Soroka alone not be fine? I mean yes we all would like Burnes, but outside of that or MAYBE a Max, why would we push one of our young guys out of the rotation? Right now you go in with Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz, Soroka and I suppose Cavalli finishing his rehab to try to finally come back. Gray will be back too. Signing anyone else means we don’t get to see what the kids (who showed promise) can do in what is hopefully the final year of a rebuild.
Otherwise agree with the post , I like the move. Subtle without giving up a ton though Garcia is indeed underrated.
@sheriff. In theory, you only need five starting pitchers for five starting slots. In reality, teams typically need 6-8 starting pitchers to make it through a season. More is not unheard of.
Think injuries, innings limits, slow recoveries from surgery, regression in young pitchers that require they work though problems back in the minors, failure of a swing pitcher to be able to sustain starts (Soroka possibly, but hopefully not). Actually, its an advantage that several of our young pitchers still have options, providing an easy pathway if you need to stash someone. It is a truism of baseball---you can never have too much good pitching.
Here is the MLBTR take on the Mets rotation.....arguably counting 9 pitchers available to start...and that's with a more experienced top 5 than the Nats.
Mets have now signed three notable free agent starters: Manaea, Frankie Montas, and Clay Holmes. Those three will join Kodai Senga and David Peterson in the rotation, with Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill offering additional depth. Top prospect Brandon Sproat is another arm who could start for the Mets at some point in 2025.
Wasn't there some discussion here last season that Herz may be better long-term in the bullpen? Maybe both he and Soroka eventually end up there while doing spot starts/bullpen games as needed. It would be great if the Nats find one more dependable rotation guy, but there really aren't too many left out there.
I'm doubling down on Walker being OLD! Since 2022, there have been 14 batter seasons with wRC+ > 100. That's less than 5 a year. Sure Walker might be one of them next year, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. And that's just better than average! Garcia might be special, but there is way too much variance with relievers to care about a guy with some good stats for one season.
That's fine. My general opinion is
under 23 "Young"
23-28 "Prime" (not exactly true but hey my blog)
29-33 "Not Young"
34-37 "older"
38+ "OLD"
I can't really justify calling Walker OLD! I think there is a significant chance that he is not good ever again, though. That isn't really true of Lowe
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