Are you happy?
That's the question for Nats fans as they look at an off-season that right now stands as this :
- Signed the rehabilitating Mike Soroka and the potential fluke Trevor Williams to shore up the rotation.
- Traded for the perfectly good Nathaniel Lowe to play 1B
- Signed Josh Bell to DH.
If I were to give an off-season evaluation RIGHT NOW (which matters only slightly more than an evaluation on November 1st) I'd say they tried to solve the first base issue, punted on the DH issue, and it looks like they've decided to run another year of kids in the rotation trying to evaluate what exactly they have.
It's the off-season for a team on the path to contention (you don't trade for Lowe otherwise) but not looking to contend in 2025. If it happens they'll take it, but this looks like a team aiming to break .500 not close in on 90 wins. This isn't just me but the general consensus out there.
Is that the right move? You know I don't think so. At some point you have to commit to a run and I think now is the time. I think the Nats are running a year behind where they should be. There will likely always be questions. We thought this year might clear up what guys like Gore and Abrams are. It didn't or at least not enough to plan on. While Garcia became less of a question, Ruiz and Gray became greater ones. That's the way seasons go. Waiting for absolute clarity on what must be done might mean waiting forever.
There are four big FAs left (Alonso, Bregman, Santander, and Flaherty) and any one of them fits into the Nats well. However, the signing of Bell likely rules out Alonso or Santander. Signing just one of Bregman or Flaherty likely isn't enough to make them a contender. So sign both? Or sign neither and hope next year the pieces you need will be there AND you can get them?
I'll admit that's not an easy call outside of "not my money - sign everyone" thinking. Which of course is my thinking. So sign both.
But in reality they are probably done with SP signings and their potential to land Bregman lies with Boras using the Nats as a 1yr stopping point if the contract he wants isn't out there. Our best bet for financially based improvement lies in the bullpen where solid quality arms still are out there. That's my expectations. A couple of solid FA RP signings then head to camp with an eye on getting over .500 and maybe getting to 3rd place, catching whichever Mets/Braves/Phillies team stumbles.
If that's 2025... well sure hope those kids like Wood and Crews are exciting bc it's not a season that interests me much. Wait 'til next year is not what you want to hear in March.
12 comments:
I'm still holding my evaluation until we get closer to Opening Day. I know that this doesn't do much for generating content in January, so I apologize for that. So far I'm fine with the moves that have been made, but I still hope for more. I don't confine my hopes to FA signings because Rizzo has done some of his best work through trades.
I think Harper and a lot of us are being pretty clear eyed about it.
Yes, the offseason isn't over and there are plausible paths from here that would be satisfying. But if we get to opening day without any more substantive upgrades to the lineup, it is a missed opportunity and Harper's last line is 100% correct.
I can’t believe I’m the one more pessimistic than Harper in this case, but I guess I am. I just really don’t see how this team contends for the playoffs this year in such a brutal division. Sure I think it’s within the Belma possibilities that one of those three teams Disappoints. But to the point that they fall THAT far To be below the nationals (even with a FA or 2)? I just don’t think that’s realistic from what we saw from this team last year. Sure, DC and JW can take nice steps forward. Gore and CJ too sure. And let’s say everyone else stays even and nobody regresses. That’s still adding maybe 10 wins (especially when factoring in the losses in WAR of Thomas, Winker, the bullpen arms, etc)? So we maybe push .500 in a near best case scenario. I just don’t see 2011-2012 breakout in this crop at least not yet. I think they’re still a year away and i don’t like this year’s FA class (obviously Soto the exception).
I think hoping for an off season that made us expect a playoff team was asking way too much. Let's say the Nats signed Soto and Burnes. With the caveat that Soto demanded playing in the outfield, so that moves Crews to CF and Young to the bench. Do your think that would be enough to reach your goal? I don't, and if signing the top two free agents isn't enough, then I don't think that was a realistic goal. My goal is a .500 team that is playing meaningful games in September. I think they still have some work before they get there.
Having said that, the Bell signing disappoints me. I'm actually fine with him on the team because I like him. The size of the contract feels like it is unlikely that they will improve DH any more, and I don't think he is good enough. 3rd base is still a problem, and I don't think Bregman is the answer unless he took a 1 year deal. I think blocking House is a bad idea. I'm not sure there is an answer out there that is definitely better than the players currently on the roster. Jorge Polanco?
The out of the box idea is signed Bregman and trade House to the Mariners for a pitcher
I like the idea of signing Flaherty and then flipping Herz+ to another team for a guy who can man 3B for now and then 1B in the future. Arenado seems like the obvious candidate here since we can absorb the contract and his D is finally starting to decline and looks likely to transition to 1B sooner rather than later
Personally, while I’d hoped for more movement in the off season, I’m still just looking forward to a new baseball season. With young players who have the chance of an exciting progression, and with a team that has an outside chance of hanging in there to be competitive this season (and the promise of more in coming years). I’m not quite Rogers Hornsby, but I am coming into the time of year where I am very eager for pitchers and catchers to report.
I don't object at all to trading from our SP depth and, even though I'm high on Herz, I recognize that he might get us the best deal and am willing to flip him for the right offer. But Arenado's contract is underwater as is; the best starter I'd trade for him is Rutledge. Herz+ for Arenado is absurd.
Remember when baseball pundits were labeling the Nationals as a dark horse candidate to land Soto. Ha-ha
@anon 5:53. There were also a lot of pundits saying Soto would land in the $500 to $600 million. I always believed that the goal was to top Ohtani and that proved correct. To be charitable, I prefer to believe that the Lerner's checked in with Boras--found out what it was going to take and didn't enter the bidding.
If Juan Soto has a career-ending injury tomorrow, the Mets and Steve Cohen would survive $765 million being spent unproductively. Hard to say that about the Nats or any other team not named Yankees or Dodgers.
Post a Comment