What's next?
1) New guys take over... for now.
Mike DeBartolo is the new GM. He's young, with a business bent. He's been with the Nats a long time with a role in a lot of different aspects and he's familiar with analytics. Still I imagine with no baseball leadership experience and his history being the second guy on a team who just fired it's GM I assume he's a placeholder.
Miguel Cairo, bench coach, is the likely choice for interim manager.
What is on DeBartolo's plate is the draft. He's likely to have been involved and with the first pick the Nats have a pretty decent sense of the 1-3 guys they are looking at. The later rounds have never been good to Rizzo so DeBartolo can't do worse.
Miguel's got to rally the team but after Davey's "don't blame the coaches" rant that may be easier done. Also compared to the effort they've put out so far even winning 3 out of every 7 would be an improvement.
Don't expect a new coach in before the end of the year. There isn't really a point. But I'd like to see a new GM in as soon as possible. The draft might be a pass for them. The big focus is on early rounds and your position in the draft and your minor league system means a lot when you make those picks. Any other guy is looking at a different set of players than Rizzo would have been. But I do want the next GM to be here for the trade deadline to begin making the team his.
Who would I like to take over? Assuming this team is going to be run cheap - you want someone from an org that understands how to win with limitations, Tampa, Cleveland, Milwaukee...
For manager? If we're going with my heart, let Matty LeCroy take it. I love that guy. Also a heart choice but with more thought into it, Rick Sweet is a LONG time minor league manager with seemingly decent skills at mentoring young players. Let him have his one shot at the majors with a bunch of kids that can make some noise.
Hey if my "get Rick Short" out of the minors push worked 20 years ago, maybe it can work for all "Rick" five-letter last names that start with S and end with t?
2) Fallout.
Rizzo hinted at some bad blood, probably wants one more shot, and we all think the ownership isn't... at it's best. What sort of hit jobs do we see on the Lerners, or on Rizzo the untouchable king, or on Davey no longer in a position of power?
Also why now? Why both? What was the process? That usually does come out one way or another. If you like drama we might see some
3) Does anything else change?
Ownership could also be ready for a change. With Rizzo and Davey out that's a clean slate for a buyer and we know the Lerners broached selling the team earlier. Could they be up for doing it again? We generally think Mark wants to stay, the siblings and their hubbies want to sell, and no strong decisions can be made unless everyone agrees. If this is all true that's no way to run a franchise, one hamstrung sibling trying to hobble along. You can feel sorry for Mark in this situation a little bit, but by holding on to the team he's making things worse for it. If you can't put money into it NOW you got to sell
11 comments:
Compared to the counterfactual of letting DM and Rizzo run out their contracts and letting them go in the offseason, I have to think this path leans in the direction of the Lerners being more likely to commit money than the reverse. That said, I'm not sure there's much use in looking through the tea leaves. We'll have dispositive evidence one way or another on that by next spring. And that's by far the most important condition of any future contention.
Other than that, I expect finding a better manager, or at least a better fit, won't be difficult, but it may be hard to find a better GM than Rizzo.
That said, I'm not worried about the pre-draft timing. Outside of some last minute quibbles over bonus numbers, that work is already done. Maybe some kids get spooked that the org is in turmoil and that ticks up their demands slightly, but I'm not sure how likely that is and the scouting and selecting part should be pretty much unaffected.
Will there ever be a better time to BUY than right now? New owner gets much less liability on existing/deferred contracts, full TV rights, get to hire a GM, get to hire a Manager, and some exciting young players to build around. Team just needs to truly be for sale.
Be nice if there was a wealthy group of people in the DMV area that are not affiliated Ted Leonsis that are:
- wealthy enough to run a large market teams without cutting corners
- competitive enough to seek to win even if the costs cuts from the bottom line
- competent and patient enough to defer to smart people to run the team
- a resident of the area that wants to keep the team in DC
I am not confident that such a group exists. I fear change.
They have to be gearing up to sell the team. And I sure hope so, because I don’t believe the Lerner’s are “in it to win it.” A trip down memory lane.
1. FO Contracts
Remember how Rizzo (and DM a couple times) had to deal with an expiring contract mid-season? Most franchises button that up on the off-season. Not the Lerner’s. In doing that, they sew doubt and and uncertainty in the front office and the clubhouse alike.
2. Deferred Contracts
While I do blame the MASN deal for this, the Lerner’s were ahead of the curve on this sudden popular budgeting tactic. Strange how it works for others teams today but may have cost us landing a few key FA’s over the years. Some say tur Lerner’s are cheap, some say it’s MASN, I say see #3.
3. Manager-on-a-Budget
Remember when the Lerner’s were a signature away from signing Bud Black (this blog’s consensus favorite) back in the day? Turns out managers don’t like 1-year contracts. Who knew? Dusty took that deal then griped about enough to get him thrown out on the curb. Brought in Matt Williams (my namesake) under the same short contract. Crashed and burned. See a pattern? Fortunately for DM, he survived a few rounds of negotiation but that was always a headline during the season.
4. Player Development/Analytics
People want to blame Rizzo for this lack of investment, but I still point to the Lerner’s on this one. People think scout = anti-analytics, which just makes Rizzo sound like a hardheaded fool. To quote an article: “And it took years for ownership to realize running a ballclub was not like another real estate asset; a conveyor belt of veterans – both uniformed and in baseball operations - complained over the years about missing essentials in the clubhouse, to needless expense report scrutiny and postseason travel arrangements that fell well below industry standard.
Most recently, the club was well in the minority in failing to invest in the most cutting-edge training tool available to hitters, hardly dispelling the appearance the club was behind in analytics-oriented areas.” - Gabe Lacques, USA Today
5. Strasburg’s Retirement
Just botched all around. Stras had a fully guaranteed contract and the Lerner’s wanted to defer some of the remaining salary. Shocker.
6. Leaks
There’s leaks with every franchise, I get it. But the ordeal with Bryce’s negotiation and Soto’s as well is an indication of how these owners like to do business. Expect the same treatment for Wood and Gore when it comes time for them. For the sale of the fans, hopefully they’re traded before then. Better to get something rather than nothing because those two are as good as gone from this train wreck.
But alas… what does it matter? They own the team. It’s their money, it’s their toy, it’s their right to do what they want. They just suck at it, that’s all.
"They own the team. It’s their money, it’s their toy, it’s their right to do what they want. They just suck at it, that’s all."
The only "power" we have is to stop going to games and stop paying for MLB media. They have to see that they are damaging their precious asset by being so cheap.
They pissed away the world series win.
So I did hear the lesser known part of this that BOTH Rizzo and DM had contract options that needed to be decided upon this month. So through that lens, it makes perfect sense that both would be let go.
I'm happy to see them both go, Rizzo's marginal free agent luck has dried out and if they aren't making big trades or signing big free agents, then he had to go too. I would've fired Davey 5 or so different times over the last few years. Now hopefully this offseason they can overhaul the coaching staff.
@Kevin. the claim that they pissed away the world series is often said. I think it is the other way around--the Lerner's and the fans were deprived of the year-long afterglow by the beginning of the pandemic. Flags fly forever, but none of us got the experience that would normally go with such a rare and glorious success.
@Anon you're right, they lost their victory lap, and it's unlucky. Plus Strasburg was never able to pitch again. So as a result, it seems that the Lerners have said "forget it, we're never going big again." I guess they're inspired by the Rays, but Tampa spends a LOT on teaching, the minors, and still only win about 85 games. (Which is a lot more than the Nats, I'll grant you.) According to the Post article, the Nats couldn't even get the fancy new pitching machines that simulate real pitchers.
So yes, the Lerners could still have had half of the afterglow of the world series. But instead, they were terrible in 2020, they were terrible in 2021, and traded everyone away. They got a good haul from that, and got their new batch of talent, but the Lerners can't be bothered to re-invest the $35M that came off the boooks when Corbin left (and got better after he left - jeez, the Nats must really have been doing something wrong)
There's just a lot of problems, and an ownership group that can't come to any decisions about spending other than "spend less" and the game has really left the Nats in the dust in terms of innovation. At least the Commanders have gotten good.
Nothing new to add to this discussion. Most of us were done with DM long ago.
Rizzo lost me fully and finally with his inattention to bullpen design. His signings were a disaster. Turned a team with a .500 ceiling into a dumpster fire. How many people here grimaced with the J. Bell signing? Even with the small budget provided by ownership, a sharp fan could have constructed a better lineup around the improving young group of stars and solid players.
Clean slate. We'll know which direction the Lerners are going soon enough.
I shall defend His Rizzoyal Highness here, the 1B/DH options this offseason were:
Christian Walker (3y/$60M): OPS+ 87
Pete Alonso (2y/$54M): OPS+ 164
Joc Pederson (2y/$37M): OPS+ 49 (injured)
Paul Goldschmidt (1y/$12.5M): OPS+ 117
Carlos Santana (1y/$12M): OPS+ 93
Gary Sanchez (1y/$8.5M): OPS+ 102
Jesse Winker (1y/$7.5M): OPS+ 112 (injured)
Justin Turner (1y/$6M): OPS+ 63
Josh Bell (1y/$6M): OPS+ 90
Andrew McCutcheon (1y/$5M): OPS+ 102
Jared Young (1y/$1.15M): OPS+ 81 (mostly in minors)
Ty France (1y/$1M): OPS+ 87
Adam Frazier (1y/$1.5M): OPS+ 84
Josh Bell is fine for the money. Nathaniel Lowe has been almost exactly league average (0.2 bWAR, 100 OPS+), which is a disappointment but better than most of these options as well. Robert Garcia has been a little better on the Rangers but it's basically a push. They could have gone the Patrick Corbin route for Pete Alonso but would have wasted the good years on a terrible team. Also Amed Rosario has been fine.
Agree that the bullpen signings were a debacle and even worse than usual, but that may be more a byproduct of so few minor league pitching options coming up like Henry and Lord (who have been okay and pretty good, respectively)
Post a Comment