Monday Quickie - Season Wrap

So if you want to know what we guessed in wins it's here.  I had them at 71.  The group leaned into a bit higher but the winner in the clubhouse would be Matt with "high 60s"  Not quite! We all lose by Price is Right rules. 

We'll spend the week going over the season (promise!) but the general tone of it was one of disappointment and now a bit of concern.  The team is in the midst of a rebuild but also starting over with a new GM and new manager and that could easily kick the can on the rebuild another 5 years down the road. The pieces in place that look good (Wood, Gore, Abrams) are more likely then to be pieces sent away for the next set of magic beans than cornerstones of the next Nationals playoff team.  Let's hope this isn't the case but we must accept it could be. 

 Part of the problem was the lack of stepping up and the stepping down of players from last year's surprisingly watchable squad. The Amazing Fifth Starter Squad showed themselves to be... well 5th starters. The Trevor Williams bubble burst. Cavalli and Herz got hurt. Brady House and Dylan Crews in their first long stretches in the majors were not good. Jacob Young played himself out of a role. Nathaniel Lowe dogged his way out of DC. Ruiz continued to regresss if that was possible. Just a mess of "could be" answering "nope. not me. not this year at least" 

Along with that is the uncertainty of ownership.  The Lerners do not seem committed as a group to the team and they've even put it out there they'll sell for the right price, but can they get it?  

We did see the last of Rizzo and Davey which for most people was a relief. You know how I felt about Davey a manager that managed to undershoot expectations for the vast majority of his tenure with the team ending with the 2nd worst WP of any Nats manager even with the 93 win World Series team under his belt. Good riddance I say.  Rizzo I'm more on the fence about. He certainly showed his knack for trades and at times free agent signings but under a tighter budget where player development mattered more, his weakness was exposed. The man loved an all-in prospect strategy that gambled for the big impact players but left the minors shallow. When it hit it worked but when it didn't... well you see.  Perhaps the last round of these will pan out and give the next GM a solid base.  Willits looks real good and two of their other best prospects are from the last draft. 

 But that's the problem isn't it?  Outside of Susana, who we should see next season, everyone who should be here for THIS rebuild is here. And it's not coming together.  It's early but there's also not like a long window to these things.  They have another year, maybe two and then you gotta decide to move on or not.  Right now the data says move it.  Are you ready for another 4-5 years in the wilderness?  

It could be different. If the next management group believes in these guys and signs some help. That will be their first job and how they react this off-season will tell us what we likely need to know about the next 5 years.  

Last Week what's up

 There will be a rundown of everyone at the end of the year so no particular reason to go over Nunez's power surge or Wood's power drop (before today) right now. Instead let's meet some newer guys since there are a lot of new faces around 

 

Jorge Alfaro - in the "we gotta try something behind the plate" world that the Nats are in - here is Alfaro.  If the name sounds familiar we was a big-time prospect about a decade ago for the Phillies, a key piece to the Rangers trade for Hamels in 205 and the Phillies trade for Realmuto in 2019. He had performed ok for Philadelphia with a powerful bat and one of the best behind the plate at gunning out runners. He looked like a long time catcher for someone given how bad that position can be. 

But post trade Alfaro never really solved his biggest problem - inability to ID strikes - and his walk rate and K-rates were so poor they demanded a high .200s average, A real touch ask for a catcher who isn't going to leg out anything. Meanwhile the other aspects of his defense weren't as stellar as his arm and he has slowly become a back-up. 

 As far as back-ups go a guy that might swing into one and can keep runners honest is two more things than Ruiz is doing right now and one more than Adams. He wouldn't be the worst guy to keep around as a back-up but he can't be the starter for any teams that isn't tanking. 

That's it at the plate 

On the mound

Andrew Alvarez - Nats draftee who spent 4+ seasons proving himself to be a fringe major leaguer.  When he's on he keeps the ball on the ground and the hits weak to counter the fact that he can be a little wild and doesn't miss bats. At 26 he's probably not going to suddenly become good. Instead he's in the Irvin/Parker range of maybe he can give you a decent year or two. 

PJ Poulin - waiver claim several weeks ago. His stuff can be electric but as usual that also means he's wild.  As far as it goes though that wild does not mean "can be prone to a long ball" so you can mostly take it. I'll never complain about a live-arm lefty for nothing. 

Konnor Pilkington - a high draft pick for Chicago in 2018 there isn't much to recommend about him.  His arm is ok but he's wild enough that even getting abnormally great results in 40 innings AAA for the Nats (5H/9  0.4HR/9) this year he still put up a 2.59 ERA. Granted this was in his first real full time commitment to relieving, something that's been toyed with him since 2022. They should keep trying that but it's hard to see it working out for the 27 year old. 

Clayton Beeter -  Dodgers high draft pick and Yankees reliever speaks pretty highly of the guy as the Dodgers draft well and the Yankees develop strong relievers. Maybe elite swing and miss stuff but can be ALL over the place. One of those guys if he ever "gets it" would be a top closer but you just don't know. Like PJ definitely worth throwing out there

Orlando Ribalta - In theory just an organizational arm who in 2024 had a year that made you think "wait do we have something here?" but 2021-2023, and 2025 all say "no not, really" Imagine he sticks around as a AAAA type. 

Sauryn Lao - Waiver claim just after Labor Day. The Mariners were oddly stretching him out from a reliever to a starter before letting him go.  He barely has a full season of stats on him for his entire three year career so I'm not sure what to make of him. But when two other major league teams have said "nah" you probably aren't finding something. 

 

Who is Daylen Lile? What is Daylen Lile? HOW is Daylen Lile?

Daylen Lile is hot right now.  He's been up almost half a year and is closing in on 300 PA.  in that he's hit a solid .282 / .327 / .450 line and it's only been better in the second half .318 / .360 / .523. How excited should you be from a guy that probably entered 2024 the 6th Nationals outfielder to watch on some lists*

He's a legit prospect (2nd round pick) and while is isn't super young he's right in there with Wood and House which is frankly young enough for anyone that isn't a phenom. He seems to ID pitches well and makes great contact hitting a good deal of line drives. He's fast and can get that extra base from the balls he hits. He's good.

He's a mediocre fielder with a weak arm. He doesn't generate a lot of bat speed or barrel up the ball, and doesn't hit a lot of fly balls, so he doesn't generate a lot of "true" power, instead relying on legs for those XB.  Despite IDing pitches well he seems impatient late in counts and is not working his way on base like he should. He's not amazing. 

I'd be pretty excited for Lile in that it's always good to have as many good players as you can and Lile, seems good. The general track - HS star - legit prospect - solid minor league stats - is what you hope to see from your best prospects. He has all the skills, he seems to be using them.  That he isn't a great fielder shouldn't be an issue but with Young not hitting at all and Crews taking a slow path to being a starter, it matters a little. If you ever have to pull Crews from CF you can't just shift him or Wood over. 

It's seemingly clear that the power for 30 homers seasons isn't there.  It's not his major league level nor really how he hits in general. That was always true but you project out some for kids. He just isn't getting to that projection. But 15-20 seems reasonable and if he's hitting .280+ that's almost good enough. 

Really it comes down the the walks.  By all accounts his eye is good and in the minors he did take his share of free bases. I'm not exactly sure why he isn't in the majors right now - could be a bunch of things - but the answer is NOT his eye isn't good with major league stuff. It is. So it's a question of choice it seems and if he chooses to be a little more patient and you have a guy getting on base .350+ well then - that's a player.  

Half a season is half a season but Lile has the skill set available to him to be a solid major leaguer. The contact bat looks to be there now (but we'll have to see over a full year next year), the speed is there, the eye needs to follow because the glove and power likely won't**.  That'll likely be the difference between Lile being a nice 3rd/4th OF type and a solid starter.  Of course maybe he'll just hit .320 instead of .280, or and then we don't care about the eye anymore

 *lists that didn't read my takes on Elijah Green 

 **Yeah the power looks ok but legged out triples are a LOT more like doubles imo. I feel a lot of run production stats over count for triples.

Monday Quickie - What's wrong?

 ok yes everything but nothing has gone right for this squad since early June.  At one point they were 30-33, then went on a 20-53 stretch.  The last 5-1 brings it up to 25-54 which is just over a 50 win pace for a season. Yikes. 

You can't blame the firings - Davey and Rizzo were gone in the middle of this. You can't blame the trade deadline. Yeah it made the team weaker but they aren't losing squeakers because of a weakened pen.  Here are some 2nd half splits 

Brady House .225 / .224 / .292 (1 walk!) 

Jacob Young .223 / .284 / .287

Dylan Crews .206 / .299 / .294

James Wood .207 / .289 / .328 

CJ Abrams .225 / .281 / .376

Jake Irvin 8.86 ERA 1.848 WHIP

Mitchell Parker 7.63 ERA 1.603 WHIP

MacKenzie Gore 7.54 ERA 1.757 WHIP

 

This is your goddamn core and it's a group looking like it would have trouble winning in AAA as opposed to be what you build around.  

You can blame Gore's pitching on injury and Young / Parker / Irvin on never really being good (and thus not being an overly critical part of the future) but the rest is very worrisome.  

James Wood is striking out at an alarming rate up from 28% to 40%.  

Dylan Crews remains unable to lift anything hitting over 50% of his balls into the ground. 

Brady House  is not walking and not making enough contact in general. 

 

I'm not sure what you do here but I think you have to clear out the remaining staff that Davey and Rizzo put here. It's not working. It's actively HURTING.