So if you want to know what we guessed in wins it's here. I had them at 71. The group leaned into a bit higher but the winner in the clubhouse would be Matt with "high 60s" Not quite! We all lose by Price is Right rules.
We'll spend the week going over the season (promise!) but the general tone of it was one of disappointment and now a bit of concern. The team is in the midst of a rebuild but also starting over with a new GM and new manager and that could easily kick the can on the rebuild another 5 years down the road. The pieces in place that look good (Wood, Gore, Abrams) are more likely then to be pieces sent away for the next set of magic beans than cornerstones of the next Nationals playoff team. Let's hope this isn't the case but we must accept it could be.
Part of the problem was the lack of stepping up and the stepping down of players from last year's surprisingly watchable squad. The Amazing Fifth Starter Squad showed themselves to be... well 5th starters. The Trevor Williams bubble burst. Cavalli and Herz got hurt. Brady House and Dylan Crews in their first long stretches in the majors were not good. Jacob Young played himself out of a role. Nathaniel Lowe dogged his way out of DC. Ruiz continued to regresss if that was possible. Just a mess of "could be" answering "nope. not me. not this year at least"
Along with that is the uncertainty of ownership. The Lerners do not seem committed as a group to the team and they've even put it out there they'll sell for the right price, but can they get it?
We did see the last of Rizzo and Davey which for most people was a relief. You know how I felt about Davey a manager that managed to undershoot expectations for the vast majority of his tenure with the team ending with the 2nd worst WP of any Nats manager even with the 93 win World Series team under his belt. Good riddance I say. Rizzo I'm more on the fence about. He certainly showed his knack for trades and at times free agent signings but under a tighter budget where player development mattered more, his weakness was exposed. The man loved an all-in prospect strategy that gambled for the big impact players but left the minors shallow. When it hit it worked but when it didn't... well you see. Perhaps the last round of these will pan out and give the next GM a solid base. Willits looks real good and two of their other best prospects are from the last draft.
But that's the problem isn't it? Outside of Susana, who we should see next season, everyone who should be here for THIS rebuild is here. And it's not coming together. It's early but there's also not like a long window to these things. They have another year, maybe two and then you gotta decide to move on or not. Right now the data says move it. Are you ready for another 4-5 years in the wilderness?
It could be different. If the next management group believes in these guys and signs some help. That will be their first job and how they react this off-season will tell us what we likely need to know about the next 5 years.
2 comments:
I’d have to believe that any new PBO hire would have staked out a vision and asked for a certain financial commitment to see that through. So I’m hoping Toboni will have more leeway to spend than Rizzo seemed to. And I’m encouraged by his focus on player development. I’m more optimistic going into next year than I was this year.
I’m happy with a rebuild process if Paul Toboni can be trusted to get it right (or at least follow accepted industry and statistics-infused processes). The Commanders went through a similar total tear down after having done that several years before, and the results are promising (obviously jump-started by Jayden Daniel’s, but the improvement in GM quality is noticeable). Here’s hoping Toboni is able to right the ship, even if it takes 5 years to build a consistent winner
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