Lucky or Unlucky : 2027

It's time for my now annual review of where the team got lucky and unlucky in the past season.  Understanding this can help figure out where 2027 could go, or where it should go, given return to forms are often seen for people way under or over performing. 

 LUCKY 

Both Curtis Mead and Andres Chaparro well out performed expectations for their half-year of batting. They also got a great bit of hitting from Joey Weimer, even if the Nats were never fooled by it.  And Garcia was putting together his best year before being traded

CJ Abrams had the kind of balanced year that you hoped he could have - it's likely not overly lucky but it needs to be mentioned. In here I'd put Cavalli blossoming as well. 

In a different way Foster Griffin being that good was a run of luck but that's why you pick up a bunch of guys, to hope something like this happens 

PJ Poulin had some solid stats despite the fancy stats saying he's not very good.  

Can we say Ruiz is luck? After two horrendous years we certainly can't say we expected it.  

UNLUCKY  

Wood got hurt, luckily not for long but still at this point unlucky it happened.  

Some of the cups of coffee at the end of the year - Ortiz, Ford, - may have had some bad luck hitting it where they ain't  

Cole Henry didn't build on last year, and instead was so bad he ended up being released. Gus Varland gave them nothing. 

DJ Herz had a slow return from Tommy John and suffered a setback before finally getting some innings in.  

AS EXPECTED

Nasim Nunez can't hit. Sorry last year was a weird bit of home run magic unlike his career.  This might be low but it's closer to who he is. 

Guys like Lile, Young, House, Crews on the prospect side and Vivas and Tena on the vet side produced the "eh" results that would be most expected. 

The rest of the pitching, starting and relief, was probably as bad as expected.  No money or talent in, no production out. 

 

So what does this tell us? The Nats were a touch lucky this year. They didn't have any major collapses at the plate or unexpected collapses on the mound. I wouldn't say the pitching was lucky, Foster Griffin is basically a quantity win, but the bats were much better than expected overall which jives with the team finding itself with the top offense in baseball for a while.  

One thing that's hard to tell, given regime change, is how much of this is luck and how much is process.  Did they id better hitters than the last group? Do they develop them better?  It's a question that will be answered in 2027 and 2028, not now.  Now, assuming all things equal, we should expect a more average offense in the upcoming year. What that means is a bat would be extremely helpful though where to put it is a question. Second would be the obvious choice but there are a couple SS kids you don't want to block the way for.  Maybe a 1-2 year vet deal. The Nats might suffer from leaning too much into the House/Young/Lile direction that is probably going to offer nothing great outside of Young's D.  

On the mound, it's pretty simple. They need to go out and spend to upgrade the pen and yes, likely add an arm.  This doesn't have the caveats that the batting does despite some fans wanting to pencil in a 5-man rotation out of what's here and assume it's playoff worthy. They can use another dependable arm and if the army of choices forces an issue with too many good arms worry about that later.  The Nats can't expect to grab 10 mediocre guys and hope it works out. This year shows you - it usually doesn't.

 

So the takeaway for 2027 is the hitting is likely to drop a bit. You can try to prop it up and hope the pitching surprises, or you can really add to the pitching to cover the expected offensive drop. Given the state of prospects the latter makes a lot more sense to me. Do nothing and you can't expect another surprisingly fun half-season from this squad. It would likely drearily march to 70-75 wins. SO do something.  It doesn't have to be a lot but it has to be a 2-3 reliable guys.

Nats in the playoffs! Well former Nats at least...

Potential Nats related rooting interests in the opening round...

 

Philadelphia vs Atlanta

Ok so not a real "Nats friendly" series here to start with given it's two NL East rivals. 

The Phillies have Bryce who did nothing wrong but fans still dislike for being a bit weird and going to a rival.  They also have Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner and former Nats prospect Jesus Luzardo AND Derek Hill who played 13 games for the Nats in 2023. It's Nats-tastic!  

The Braves have Dom Smith and Lane Thomas who is currently hurt.  Also Sandy Leon and Reynaldo Lopez both played for them this year if you want to see those guys get rings. 

Seems like if this matters to you the Phillies are the choice.  

 

White Sox vs Astros 

White Sox have old friend Erick Fedde while Lucas Sims, surely you remember ol Lucas it was just last year, and Derek Hill(? yep traded to PHI) played for them this year. 

Astros are Nats-free.  

BOOO! Just another reason to pull for the Sox. The GOOD Sox. The REAL Sox

 

Boston vs New York 

Traded Curtis Mead is still out for the Red Sox and Joe La Sorsa and I guess we gotta throw in Connolly Early played on the team this year. Weak sauce

Just a solid player Luis Garcia is the obvious one, traded to them this year. Useful Amed Rosario is also there. In the same Early sense both Yovanny Cruz and Jake Bird pitched for the Yankees in 2026. And don't forget they have Nats hero Trent Grisham. 

In honor of John Sterling... theeeeee Yankees WIN!

 

Cubs vs Padres

Cubs only had "Hurtin'" Hunter Harvey pitch for them this year. 

Padres only had "Hurtin'" Lucas Giolito pitch for them this year (nickname doesn't sound as good) but do have both Robbie Ray and Nick Pivetta on the team 

Looks like you should go with the Pads.  

Season Over - A success but with caveats

The Nationals 2026 season is over and finishing at 77-85 with their best record since 2019 is a pretty obvious sign that this was a successful season. More than that, spending a good chunk of the season flirting with relevance and watching the new regime shore up the minors without doing much tearing down of the majors helps give the fanbase some hope that good times are coming sooner rather than later. As we look back in retrospect, the season leaves us with good vibes, though ones slightly diminished by the late game and late season performances. 

The former was a failure of the organization to set up a good bullpen. It wasn't supposed to be THIS bad, setting a record for most blown saves, but it was going to have no depth in the majors and no strong back-up from the minors.  It absolutely hinged on Henry, Beeter and Lord being very good and they weren't.  Lord was maybe a half-step worse than last year.  Beeter flashed some talent but never turned the corner to put it together and Henry was hurt and bad and if you didn't catch it was released a week ago. Without those guys being lights out the Nats were left with prayers until the front office did some fixing. But they never did, opting to save cash and weak assets rather than shore up the pen to keep the season interesting. We can argue if that was the best idea or not, but what is inarguable is that we should have similar expectations for next year IF the organization is again seeing the season as building toward something rather than being something. 

The latter was for the most part the dealing away of some decent players and dealing with James Wood's injury. The lineup, once carrying the team to .500, was left to be CJ and the other guys.  A couple guys stepped up. Chaparro seems to demand a place and Young is perennially showing he's not that bad at the plate. But for the most part they didn't and while the pitching improved a step in the second half it still wasn't good. The Nats skidded to a 22-32 record after about the trade deadline, and that's with a 10-4 finish that was almost all meaningless games against other non-contenders. It was a disappointing finish that didn't represent the season, but the worry is it may represent next. 

And that's what the caveats are.  This season was a step in the right direction. There were important developments like Ruiz getting his head back on straight and Cavalli becoming a dependable top of the rotation arm. The losses to trade were slim with really only Luis Garcia a guy that you could see on the team long term. The minors are filled with interesting bats and arms that should be showing up in the majors in the next couple of years.  Everything is primed for an attempt at a run.  All we need to see now is the effort. Do they fix the pen? Do they get another GOOD starting pitcher? I can see them doing nothing for the line-up.  Will they need to find places for Seaver King and Eli Willits and maybe a lower prospect like Cayden Wallace or a surprise guy? Probably not ALL of them, but there isn't much space for anything right now outside of a great OF to push the "Well Liles ok, and Young can field but can he reliably hit and do we still want to try Crews?" mediocrity to be a single "ok we'll pick one and run with it" But pitching?  They NEED pitching. 

Commit to next season with some needed pitching that we can count on, be it FA grabs, savvy trades, or signings we can say "ok that's decent" and this season feels better as the necessary reset / first step in the right direction. Don't commit and come back with another season of "grab some guys, hope something works out" and then this season feels like a taunt. A chance for a moment of brightness with some flashes in the pan like Curtis Mead sacrificed to the altar of the ever rebuild. 

The fans are ready and willing to give this organization their full support. Is the organization read to give that same full support to the team?  

Wrapping up the season a little Early

Connelly Early goes tomorrow. The return in the Curtis Mead trade he's been hurt most of the time since then with elbow stuff. It may seem weird to let him start when they just shut down Cavalli to avoid a strange last second injury but Early is still stretching out post injury and was likely to make one more AAA start so why not give him something in the majors?  He's already pitched 90 innings this season so it's not like this matters. 

It's a deal neither team won this year, and the second deal with the Red Sox.  In the first one Boston has the lead as Luis Perales has some crazy stuff but he hasn't harnessed it yet while Jake Bennett is an important piece of the Boston staff.  I really don't like this "Nats helping Boston" thing so please let's win these trades in the end. 

OK last weekend.  Let's play some good ball! 

Or if not let's watch the Astros/Rangers fight for their playoff lives. 

Cavalli sits - anything to worry about?

Cade Cavalli just signed a 4 year "extension".  I used those quotations because it was really a one-year extension, buying out the first year of Cade's potential free agency. With his performance it's hard to think of a situation where they wouldn't keep him on the roster the next three seasons to finish out their control, even through injury.  Assuming he can make it through 2027 without major incident this contract is a bargain for the Nats.  Cade of course takes it because it secures the bag.  Lifetime "never have to think about money for me or my family again".  You'd think oh he made like 10 million that should do it but work it out and that's kind of "ok with smart planning and no stupid spending you should easily be ok the rest of your life" money.  He goes down at age 30 and that's like a 250K salary for the rest of his life.  That's good (well maybe not when he's 60 the way inflation is going) but it's not like "sitting on an island having a butler bring you food from your private chef" good. 40 million though? Hey Jeeves, tell chef I want a hamburger and fries.

Anyway Cavalli earned it by being like one of the top 20 pitchers in the league.  Maybe it doesn't feel like it because you can imagine a scenario with everyone healthy where he's more like Top 50 but that's not really true. Looking at all the pitchers with 100 or more IP, he's 13th in K rate. That's great! He's 35th in HR-rate and 46th in BB-rate. That's good!  One great and two goods is a top of the rotation pitcher if not a dominant one. The fancy stats suggest he might be getting a touch better results than expected (his LOB rate is a touch high, his HR/FB rate a touch low) but also there isn't much history with Cavalli to go on.  He's a GB pitcher and those types tend to have higher LOB and lower HR/FB rates so maybe this is his normal.  He's still a say... 3.50 ERA type at least and if that's not Top 20 it's 20-25ish with the innings he gives. 

Anyway Anyway Cavalli is missing his last start. The Nats say it's because of the innings increase.  He's at 170 now, last year he threw 120 which was about as much as he's ever thrown.  So this is true. It's also true the games are meaningless now outside of draft order and lottery odds. He has a history of injury. He's thrown as many starts as nearly anyone in baseball.  I think this is a gross scaredy cat move.  Scaredy cat because it's a "look we don't want him to get hurt in the last start of a meaningless season so let's pull him" which I get but also if that's your opinion just pull everyone and tank after elimination.  Except you can't and you really shouldn't because as a fan I think that's gross. Fans deserve a full season of play not 145 games then watch some exhibition you rubes 

But a lot of that comes from a lack of trust that they are really building for something. Show me the effort and I'll show you the grace. Do something this off-season. 

Monday Quickie - Better than a lot of previous years!

Over the weekend the Nats secured wins number 72 and 73.  Win 72 ensured their best record since the magic year of 2019.  Win 73 keeps them from losing 90 games, a nice symbolic line to cross.  There's no doubt this Nats team is the best Nats team of the past few seasons, probably the best since 2021. That team ended up with a worse record but was on track for mid 70s in wins before dealing all their good players but Soto at the trade deadline. 

This team isn't quite a "normal bullpen" from being relevant, but that's almost true.  They should be fighting for .500. So the team is close... ish.  

Really it's year dependent.  In some years you can take the last playoff spot with 83 wins* In other years it will be closer to 90. So you really want to aim for the high 80s in wins for the next step which means adding about 8 wins or so. That's a lot! That's like adding the Cy Young winner to your rotation or the MVP candidate to your line-up. 

And we're probably overselling the team a bit here.  It's a team that should be fighting for .500... with 2/3rds of a season of Luis Garcia and Foster Griffin and Curtis Mead. And sure you can say "but we won't have bad player X!" but the truth is you'll always have bad players. It's replacing the good players that matters. So maybe 10+ wins.  It's going to be quite a jump needed. 

And that assumes everything holds. For the Nats that's mostly ok. The bullpen isn't going to get worse. The rotation holding comes down to Cavalli not getting hurt. The line-up though.  They HAVE to keep CJ.  Ruiz can't return to pre-2026 form.  Wood has to stay healthy.  

But at least we're talking about it in a way that doesn't seem crazy. There will be legit discussions on how to make this happen in 2027.  I don't think the team will make it happen (I get the sense this is a 2028 plan that includes the best of the minors having an impact) but it'll make the off-season more interesting at least. 

*Weird division winner situations excluded. 

Answers and Questions

We're getting to the end of the season.  What has been answered (I think). 

Catcher - After a mid-season Keibert Ruiz slump Ruiz has hit again and no one has pressed him at all. So he'll be the starter next year while they cycle through some of the same guys and some new ones as a back-up/future catchers. 

RF - James Wood - duh

??? - Daylen Lile and Andres Chaparro.  They've hit and they're cheap.  I imagine at least one if not both will be starting next year but with DH open we can't say for sure where. 

SP 1 or 2 - Cade Cavalli - It's been way undersold how consistently good Cavalli has been this year.  He's a top 20 pitcher for a te

SP 3-5 - Andrew Alvarez - he's been stretched out a bit at the end of the year and he's looked good.  I'm not saying that will hold in 2027 but it warrants a trial. 

RP - ? - well look there are a handful of decent arms and some of them will be back. But there are no numbers that are wowing you and no super young kids so who? Not sure. I'd bet on Lord, Dion.  etc. 

What remains questions... well everything else. 

I know Abrams is good enough to be starting next year but I can't be sure he won't be traded. 

Now this IS better than last year, where it was basically Wood and Abrams and ???. Maybe you were a little more excited about Lile and had a little more hope in the relief arms but catcher was a mess, Cavalli wasn't set and let's face it - relief is just a guess and you can never really know with question marks. 

More importantly the minors look a better as well with Willits and King taking the place of Crews and a bit more depth.  If and it's a big if, IF Susana and or Sykora come back from injury and look good in 2027, well you'd have to say the Nats will be a step ahead of 2026.  75 wins? There's work that can be done getting from that to the playoffs. 

But that's assuming no Abrams trade and that the work will actually be done.  

RECORD SETTERS LAST PLACE

What a goddman joke end of the season. 

Shut up and enjoy your rebuild fans! Buy your season tickets for next year because we swear we will try then!  

How low can they go?

When the Nats traded a handful of good players* it was thought that it would hurt but the Nats weren't going for anything anyway.  Get some more ABs and IP for some kids and get ready for 2027.  But the Nats just haven't been bad, they've been one of the worst teams in baseball - and for a while now thanks to the loss of James Wood to injury. An 8-20  worst since July 28th.  A 24-38 third-worst since June 16th. 

Are you not entertained? No you are not.  

What about the kids?  Well unless you love Andrew Pinckney and near 26 year olds having a good 20 PAs there aren't any kids at the plate doing well. The Nasim Nunez can't hit issues are not that bad because the Nats have a handful of MI at the top of their minor league prospect lists. Dylan Crews though. There's been a fun little thing on social media since Wyatt Langford came up first that the Nats made a mistake** and there's been a vocal Dylan Crews army defending him. That group has gotten a lot quieter over these past few months. 

I think I mentioned a few months ago how absolutely STACKED that draft ended up being in retrospect and it's quite possible Crews ends up being like 12th or 13th best out of the Top 16 players drafted that year.  Currently he sits at 8th.  Skenes and Langford, then Nolan Shanuel, Matt Shaw, Jacob Wilson, Rhett Lowder and Kyle Teel 7th with 2.0 bWAR.  Crews is at 1.1 in about double the playing time. So I'm not enthused he's catching up soon. 

Behind Crews is Bryce Eldridge who should pass him be the end of the year, Max Clark who came up in the past couple of months and is htting better than Crews at a much younger age. There's also Walker Jenkins who is one of the top prospects in the game and is tearing up AAA, who'd I bet on. And if you twist my arm I'm also taking Chase Dollander to have a better career who was looking like a top-mid starter but went down to TJ surgery. 

That would leave him at 12th.  Tommy Troy is a question mark - I don't love him but he does play SS so he'll get chances. This is about the same with Jacob Gonzalez. So split the difference and Crews is 13th best. One of these two is behind him along with Blake Mitchell a KC draftee C that is young (just turned 22 but is striking out SO MUCH in high A right now. It's not Elijah Green numbers but if you are pushing 35% in A+ that's scary for AA, let alone the majors. And Noble Meyer, one of those great arms that can't get under control and is also injured now so yeah don't like those chances.  But he'll get the reliever trial in a year or so so who knows. 

Anyway I got off track. Crews stinks. I get why they picked him but pee-yew. Sometimes the peach is just rotten on the inside. 

Pitching wise - it's hard. You know a lot of very small samples. For the ones that weren't Dion looked good up until last games implosion. We'll see what the next one brings. The one kid getting starts*** Jackson Kent has been bad. We'll have to look back later but nothing to get excited about.

So no winning, no good kids. A depressing slog toward 2027 where maybe the depth of the organization comes through and with Wood back... or maybe they trade CJ over the winter because there isn't anything saying next year could be a break out. Sigh.   

  

*Mead - broke wrist, might be back late September. Griffin - being Griffin. Garcia - being Garcia 

 **yes, an understandable one, imo, but still one. 

 ***Cavalli looks good but he was already here. Alvarez has been fine but he's 27/28 next year. Not a kid.

Monday Quickie - Where are we with Keibert?

One of the great questions for the Nats going into the season was "what the hell are they going to do at catcher?" Keibert Ruiz had been terrible for several years and the pipeline for catcher was as weak as any position for the Nats, with newly acquired Harry Ford being the next hope that was unlikely to pay off. 

But something funny happened this year. Keibert got good (well at the plate) and the pipeline started filling up. 

On Keibert, arguably this version looks a LOT like what you'd have expected Keibert to be like back after 2021.  A low-power contact hitter who's worth was tied up in his average but who could keep that number up over .280.  While May flirted with something more, that was more likely just all his power concentrated into a single hot month, and this is more who he is. A guy at the mercy of BABIP but when you put that many balls in play, it still works out. 

Of course Ruiz has never been a great reciever and while his framing looks better now (honestly I bet more a function of the auto-strike zone taking some off of this skill for others) he's still at best just hanging on. But if a guy can hit .280 and hang on... well that's ok. 

The organizational depth is more interesting and Ruiz not crashing out this year means the Nats have a little time to check it out. Surprisingly enough (or not really if you know where they really sat as prospects), it's not Harry Ford (rapidly looking like a AAAA player - though still just 23 and a half) or Caleb Lomavita (struggling to hit in AA still under 24 I guess though it's more impressive for a guy getting MLB at bats like Ford) that we are looking at. 

Maxwell Romero Jr was a going nowhere C prospect drafted in the 9th round in 2022.  After getting the "you are too old for here" promotions up, he hit terribly in 2025 and it was probably expected 2026 would be his last year in the organization. But what he could always do was hit for power and this year he got his average up enough (over .240) to get the "ok you are old and we are interested" push to AAA where he's been hammering the ball. Granted it's been just a month of games but it's enough to make you take notice. 

Kevin Bazzell was a third round draft pick back in 2024 and last year wasn't kind to him. But he wasn't completely outmatched and things must move on for older college draftees, so he got the same "move up because" push as Romero. Starting in High A this year Bazzell did ok, which earned him a push to AA where in a few games he's been absolutely on fire. 

Now before you get excited these are very likely to be small sample size situations. Both these guys are older given their level or Lomavita than Ford (Romero over 25 and Bazzell basically Ford's age but just getting to AA).  Neither of these guys are top notch catcher either. In fact the Nats are basically full of guys that aren't really catchers, but are there because they can hack it.  So no there isn't a pipeline of depth here ready to be dealt for help in other positions. 

But given Ruiz is signed reasonably for a few more years, it seems like where we are is he gets to hold down the spot while all this shakes out. Likely shakes out to nothing, true, but the grimness that existed before getting Ford is now replaced with a sense of hope. Something could work out here, there's enough quantity.

Monday Quickie - Dead Cat bounce is done

The Nats are done for the season.  

In reality they were done for the season at the start of the season and the way the ownership approached the building of the team should have made that clear. But as we didn't expect anything from the season we didn't know they were committed to NOT trying until that actually became an issue. 

The Nats right now are were the management expected them to be.  A team stripped of the usable veteran parts they picked up with one "star" bat in the lineup, though if you asked them that star would have been Wood with Abrams traded and not Abrams with Wood injured.  Still I think it's a good sign they didn't trade Abrams and recognized the team, at least offensively, is closer to competitive than not. 

 What's next is 1) taking care of James Wood and 2) doing their best to answer questions about the team for next year. Who's got a slot taken care of and who will be fighting for a role next year.  You can see what they want offensively - Ruiz at C, Abrams at 2B, Nunez at SS, House at 3B,  Wood + 2 of Young, Lile and Crews in the OF, a couple of bats from Chaparro, Ortiz, etc. make themselves favorites for 1B and DH. Pitching is more of a mish-mash : Will anyone joine Cavalli in the rotation next year? How many of these RP look like guys you want to say "ok that spot is covered" for? 

But functionally on the field answering these questions mean more losses than wins and the slow air leak out of the fun balloon we've been playing keepy-uppy with all season. The good times for 2026 are over. 

Foster Griffin - we barely knew ya

 The Nats only make one more deal but as expected it's for Foster Griffin.  To Cleveland for four guys pitchers Will Dion, Kendeglys Virguez, and Josh Hartle, and outfielder Nick Mitchell

If you thought the Garcia haul was about quantity this one REALLY is about quantity.  

But to be fair that is what Griffin should bring back - next to nothing.  He's been good but his ERA is under what the fancy stats say it should be.  He's a back end starter for 2 months. This is what you get for that. 

Will Dion is a failed starter propsect attempting to become a reliever but at an age (will be 27 at the start of next season) they can't really expect it to stick.  He's got pretty good walk and K rates but tends to get rattled once someone reaches base. He's a guy to throw in the bullpen now. 

Virguez is the typical "live arm" can be unhittable if he can hit the strikezone, which is usually can't. But he's at a decent age (just turned 22) for trying to fix him. 

Josh Hartle is a mediocre prospect starter. He's doing ok in AA but doesn't strikeout enough and walks too many giving him real "this is his ceiling" feelings. 

Nick Mitchell is org depth. 

The Nats are hoarding pitching depth and you can understand why.  They have Susana and Sykora and basically nothing worth talking about.  If both those guys don't work out (honestly again with prospects the most likely situation) then they'd be doing repeats of what they did this year if they don't want to spend money for the best FA arms.  They need depth of guys that can be slotted in that maybe they aren't as good but aren't a huge step back. Better guys in the rotation, better guys to back them up.   This isn't about hitting 8 of 8 or even 4 of 8.  It's about hitting 2 of 8. Maybe 3 of 8 if we're talking about getting some decent use in the next 3-4 years. Will they?  No one knows!  Not even the best prospect guys.  That's why you get depth. 

Garcia traded for quantity

The Nats get Yovanny Cruz, Jake Bird, Ben Grable and Jack Cebert.  

Cebert is the one the Nats are probably most hopeful for - a starter that probably ends the season Top 10 in the Yankees prospect lists.  One of their college arms that they turn into decent prospects. He ruled High A then struggled in AA but might be turning that around too.  The main issue with Cebert is that he turns 25 next year so when a true stud should be rounding into major league form, he'll likely be proving he deserves a call-up from AAA. That is where he sits though - maybe he's a major leaguer maybe a AAAA type.  But never hurts to have more of those as options. 

Grable is kind of a one-trick pony in that he has a fun fastball that is tough to hit... for minor leaguers.  It was DOMINANT in high A but more hittable in AA. It's gonna be one of those things that if it it holds that major leaguers find it hard to hit he'll be a great relief arm.  If not he's probably nothing. But hey you want someone with a chance! 

Cruz is your "dynamic stuff can he ever control it?" type. At about to be 27 it's far more likely that the answer is no BUT if it is yes he could be dominant. 

Jake Bird is 30yo bullpen filler that is probably a safe bet to be out of baseball in under 5 years, maybe under 3. 

The MOST likely single scenario - Jake Irvin and a couple of live bullpen arms that give you hope and maybe a good year but ultimately disappoint, but we're talking like 20% here for MOST likely.  There are a lot of different possibilities.  If the Nats get Grable or Cruz to become a lights out reliever then it's worth it. If they get Cebert to be a good enough rotation guy, it's worth it. And the chances are probably better that one of them has a career at least sort of like this. 

Who's here and who's not - Make your guesses

I'll go with NEARLY everyone gone. Garcia and Griffin sure. I'll say Williams for scraps. And hell Chaparro and Crews for some random arms because they need random arms and not random bats. 

I'll say though when the smoke clears Abrams is still here. I think they are looking to get blown away for CJ.  They won't be because the market doesn't look at an out of position guy having possibly a career year the same way they look at a Sot. Not that THAT'S the benchmark for the deal they expect - just saying you look at a guy differently who's always produced than one that's just doing it. It'll be a gamble to keep him because I think they are going to trade him eventually and whatever is the "not blown away deal" this year is likely going to be better than what you can get next year unless Abrams repeats this plate performance. 

Bring Back Max?

The Nats need pitching help.  The Jays might be doing some minor selling in the hopes of resetting for 2027. Max Scherzer is a Jay and won't cost much given his recent injuries and performance issues. So... bring back Max?

Ehhhhh

Scherzer blossomed into an ace in 2012 with the Tigers and the Nats managed to snatch him up in free agency getting his best years with arguably the second best FA contract of all time (I still say Randy Johnson's 4 Cy Young in 4 years beats it, sorry*)  He was traded to the Dodgers for what may be scraps (Ruiz has been in a slow tumble since late May - first the power, now the average) pitched well then signed with the Mets.  His first year was as good as any with the Nats, although he did miss some time. But after that at age 38 in 2023, time began catching up with him. He was still an effective swing and miss guy but he was making more mistakes. Walks and homers both went up and the Mets sent him to Texas. He made some adjustments and when he pitched in Texas he was ok, but in 2024 that wasn't even close to a third of a season. Toronto took a chance on him last year and he was a perfectly ok rotation filler but too injured to rely on, and now he's still battling injuries and is just bad. 

What happened?  What happens to all old arms. The fastball velocity goes. You can't rely on it so you shift to more breaking junk which was never your bread and butter and is now worse than your peak so the results aren't what you like. You get hurt and nothing is as good coming back. 

One of Max's bugaboos was that he was never a GB pitcher. He gave up flyballs and when he was going bad he became ScHeRzer, giving up bombs for runs. This was ok when he was missing bats and putting no one on but now he's not doing enough of either and those are three run shots, not solo ones.  

If you want a positive to Max's outing - his fastball velocity was up.  If he can tick it up a bit more that's into effective territory.  BUT he's no where near as controlled with his pitches anymore. The walks came and that may be the trade-off that he has to put out there. 

As a starter he might be able to figure out a middle ground of dialing it up early with the hopes of being on and then working smarter if he's too wild and gets himself into trouble to limit the damage. Become a wily 5 inning guy.  I can see that. But fans are asking for Max to dial it up and head to the pen.  Even if he wants that I see a guy that can't do that while controlling where the ball goes.  And if he can't hit say... 95 without having control, well that's not close to a major league fireballer. While he may have the temperment of a pen guy, he doesn't have the stuff. Too wild. No out pitch anymore. 

If the Nats want to bring him back to fill in the back of the rotation, to take care of these weird opener situations, sure. Maybe you get pucky and he can find a 2024 like finish. But as a reliever? Nah. It doesn't feel right nor would it work out.  

 

*Yeah the length does help Max, but in two and two thirds more years with the Nats than Randy spent with the D-Backs (in his initial contract before the option years) Max only threw 200 IP more. Max's best year by bWAR is still behind Randy's worse year and Randy's combined bWAR is less than 1 behind Max's. They both got a WS title. It's ok to be #2 ALL-TIME.

Monday Quickie - Still Here

One thing you have to realize about the Nats is they HAVEN'T made a big push to remain in the Wild Card hunt.  6-4 in last 10.  8-7 in last 15.  In mid June they reached 39-35 and they've gone 15-17 since and they've gone from in the WC and up a game to one game out of the Wild Card.  

The middle of the NL is extremely soft. There are no very good teams beyond possibly the Phillies (and I'm not 100% sold on them).  There are six basically equal teams looking to get that last spot.  The Nats are in good shape to be the one. 

But it's not the plan. 

The plan is 2028, with 2027 looking brighter based on this year, but it's never been 2026. 

So they trade a good bat today for a good arm tomorrow.  The process doesn't change. 

But who is going to make that push? The Padres or Diamondbacks seem possible. The Pirates and Marlins seem unlikely.  I don't know where the Cardinals stand. They were kind of supposed to be in year one of a complete tear down to the studs but then Jordan Walker suddenly became the player everyone thought he'd be 2 years ago and the pitching has been surprisingly better than average. I can't see them buying but who knows? If you don't you are wasting build around Jordan Walker which you might have for only a couple more years before you'd want to deal him... but I digress

The Nats should be in the thick of it. Will they be pressing the issue though? The first trade suggests not. That was a good deal but not a good deal for 2026. Early just started mound work.

 

The team is better than you thought they'd be.

The league is worse than you might have thought it would be. 

You hope for things to work out like this. 

Bought and Sold

 Like we said - why not both.  Bats for arms.  Mead for Early

In losing Mead they lose a power bat whose prospect history suggests could keep this up.  The major league results are spottier but he’s young enough you can see a team still buying into scouting

In gaining Early the get a rotation worthy arm who’s probably more a 3/4 but a 3/4 with lots of control left.  A spot that doesn’t have to be filled with cash or FA gambles.  That is if he can stay healthy. He already missed time with an inflamed elbow

Quick take - I like the deal. It turned nothing into a decent chance at 100s of innings  

Buy, Sell? Why not both?

 That's the implication of what we've heard from Toboni recently.  This makes sense.  The organization likely came into the year thinking SELL SELL SELL but given the team has shown themselves to have a playoff caliber offense they would be shooting a gift horse in the mouth to do that.  You want a great offense. You have it.  You want great pitching.  EH.  So the goal should be to get good pitching. Simple? 

Well it would be if you had a ton of money from owners that wanted to spend but no one believes that so instead we are left with trying to do particular sales to fund the pitching without hurting the offense. 

And now we're at the problems. 

You can't really sell good pitching because you need good pitching.  Is Foster Griffin good pitching? 

You should sell your good hitters to be to fund the pitching of now and that does make sense but the organization was planning to keep the those guys.  Can they get over their initial desires? 

Or alternatively, will they decide to gamble on those guys to replace some guys like Garcia they could sell now? 

My guess?  The latter.  Selling good guys now - Garcia, Abrams for real pitching.  

And... I don't love it. Birds in the bush are those for reasons. Every team can name more prospects they were excited about that didn't pan out. But I don't have the information they have.  If the money is not coming any time soon then it will be foolish to go in now on guys that will be gone in a couple years. But I don't think you can say anything like that for sure based on what they do. 

It's also hard. Because guys selling WANT the kids. They aren't looking to get guys for now.  So there has to be some kids thrown in. 

A lot of people are saying this is a fascinating deadline for the Nats and I agree. We could see anything from a complete rebuild to a light push for the playoffs this year and you can justify any of that. 

What do you want out of the second half of the year?

Assuming the planned Nats trajectory is "do nothing, see you in 2027" do you want a mini-run after the break to get your hopes up?

I say sure.  Better baseball is better baseball even in the pursuit of nothing.

Do you have a goal win total for the end of the year

.500 or bust! 

Do you want to see these guys traded or re-signed (let's assume reasonable market contract - which means decently big but not crazy

Miles Mikolas or Zack Littell?

Take the bag of balls.  

Foster Griffin? 

I guess trade - nice find but let me put pitching $ toward something other than a mid-rotation 30yo with half a good season in the bank

Luis Garcia

Hmmm. I've always liked him but I feel like replacing a 1B should be the easiest thing (should - the Nats have shown it's not) and you are trading high. Still he's 26. I guess I say Keep because I like my continuity but I understand.  

CJ Abrams? 

SIGN

Who do you want to win the East and make the playoffs in general and no stupid "the meteor" answers. Gotta pick. 

Phillies for the East.  Been ok with them since the Schmidt days. 

Brewers and well I don't want the Dodgers but let's be honest with ourselves. 

WC, if not the Nats - Pirates, Padres, D-backs 

In the AL. Yankees obv, Indians, oh jeez I don't like any of my choices. Texas is the worst. Seattle is a bunch of cry babies - Boston west, Houston has gotta purge all the cheaters... I guess Seattle wins out, yuk. 

Being honest again, Rays are at least in as a WC, so them and Twins and Blue Jays. I don't love the Jays but let Toronto be rewarded for trying again.  

ASB P2 - Again we argue the future

What almost every ownership group wants is obvious. They want to be the Tampa Bay Rays or possibly the Cleveland Indians.  They want to be a team that wins constantly with a low payroll. That's the goal. What's more important out of the two? Sadly the low payroll, so if they don't win that's not the worst thing that can happen.

This differs from what the fans want which is simply to win.  They want to see playoffs and championships. If the team doesn't win that IS the worst thing in the world. And that's where the conflict happens, or at least where it should happen. Now spending money is FAR from a guarantee of success, but the numbers are pretty clear that spending money is better than not spending money in regards to making that happen.

An ownership group has three options then (1) ignore the fans as they aren't the most crucial money driver unless you create a big fandom, (2) give in to the fans and spend some more money, or (3) convince the fans they are wrong and spending money is actually bad.  Despite the multiple Dodgers titles and the Yankees and Phillies always in the playoffs, they've done a very good with (3). "We can put that money back into player development!" "Sure we could have an ok team now, but don't you want a GREAT team later?"   

That's where the Nats are now... well sort of. What we know is the Nats have a do fun team now that could still make the playoffs and could have had a better shot if the Nats FO did something earlier. It wouldn't have been likely to really contend but with nothing certain for the future is it better to lean in when opportunities are presented to you?  That's the philosophy question I suppose. What is increased chances at a long set of playoff runs and real title contention worth to you? 

In theory that could be worth a lot, but I think fans tend to skew those chances, (and they aren't helped because that's what the owners are always selling you).  In their minds it's like "sure we could go to a 66% chance of a WC spot for the next couple of years, but we can have like a 90% chance of a long playoff run starting in three years if we don't!" But the reality is more like "sure we could go to a 66% chance of a WC spot for the next couple of years, but the Nats have a 20% to have another long run starting in the next couple of years, we can up it to maybe 35%!" That's what you are throwing away pushes right in front of you for.  

This is an all-time argument in baseball though and not one easily answered, because those long run results ARE so good and these short unexpected runs usually are just a couple of meaningless fun series. But it IS risk / reward.  The payoff is high, sure you could be the Rays or Indians but the risk is real, you could also be the Athletics or Pirates or Rockies or Royals...  

My question though is - do fans really want to be the Rays? The key to the Rays is the constant churn.  Have a guy, he gets good, send him off for some young guys to replace him, rinse, repeat. There is no core set of players you are rooting for, only truly a set of laundry that guys fill aged 20-27 before heading off elsewhere. If you do it right occasionally that group comes together to matter, but when they don't you have a team that is bad that also engenders no loyalty. The Rays are consistently one of the lowest teams in attendance good or bad. These things are connected. 

But maybe the Nats are already one of these teams? Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Trea Turner.  All stars. All gone. What made the Nationals different was never a commitment to young players to age with the team but the willingness to go out and grab 1-2 big time FAs to be the final pieces. If the Nats don't keep CJ Abrams, that's nothing new, but simply the Nats being the Nats. Where things would be different is if after that happens they don't spend any money. There is no follow-up Scherzer or Corbin. 

Really the most important thing here is we don't know what this Nats organization is going to be like. This isn't the Pirates or Rockies with decades of proof they don't know what they are doing and don't care. This Nats org could trade Abrams and use that saving to then bring in Skubal. So all these arguments about should the Nats have done more this year are sort of made in this great vacuum of knowledge.  If the Nats are a team committed to winning that just want to set-up the best team possible when spending money then no they shouldn't do anything now (or really it was ok they didn't do anything earlier - it's a bit too late now). If the Nats are a team just hoping to "out-organization" to be the next cheap-o Rays or Pirates whatever the results may be then they should have gone for it. But we don't know.  

As far as getting that knowledge the trade deadline will tell us something. The off-season will tell us more.