And with it the uselessness of Spring Training as anything other than a marker to start the countdown to the regular season. Oh there are position battles (usually the last few spots and up for constant change during the year), new guys introduced, old guys trying to get back to old form saying they are in the best shape of their lives, and of course Ryan Zimmerman not playing. With Ryan, who spent 2018 hiding from the press with a foot injury to triumphantly appear for Opening Day, only to aggravate said injury and quickly spend 2 1/2 months on the DL, every Spring is an adventure and you shouldn't believe anything you hear about him. Strasburg and Corbin just resting? Believe it until given reason otherwise. "Noted Spring Training Hater" Zimmerman will play when he feels like it? Doubt it as much as you doubt anything.
For this Spring really you want to see what Kieboom does and really unless he's god awful he's going to start with the team. Otherwise remember Spring Training stats are meaningless. Don't make me drag out the numbers for the last 15 years to prove it. Like Fedde didn't look good. Doesn't matter we have no idea what his actual goals were for that outing other than it wasn't "get the other team out at all costs we need to win this game" which is what it is come April.
The Nats/Astros affair went off mostly without a hitch, the rivalry that might have been superceded by the Astros being dirty dirty cheaters. Dusty is back and we all somehow wish him well while wishing the Astros nothing but defeat.
Monday, February 24, 2020
Friday, February 21, 2020
Snow Day Friday
Hard to watch kids and work and blog so talk about this Mets thing.
It goes along with something I was twittering about yesterday, how 2019 Rendon is a HUGE loss and the idea that the Nats can make that up is close to wishful thinking. He was better than Soto at the plate last year (I was having a discussion on whether it was slightly or significantly better) and of course, if you use the idea of 3 years of data, much better in the field. Even if Soto takes his place with a step forward offensively (not crazy given his age and progression so far which is great because we're talking about MVP levels) he won't replace the fielding and oh yeah - who fills that spot Soto just left?
The general answer is - well Kieboom/Cabrera will be good and the bullpen will be better and the Nats won't be as unlucky as last year, which possibly, probably (it could hardly not be), and actually the Nats had pretty even luck for the season as a whole.
This, of course, doesn't mean the Nats are bad and won't make the playoffs. They are good. They'll be a game or two worse if all goes as planned. That's good enough to make the playoffs as is and if they get some good luck (or no other NL East team gets good luck) they could take the division. But still the possibility of a stalled offense around a constantly walked Soto isn't out of the question.
But back to the Mets. Why do the Mets rate favorably? Same reason past Nats teams have - projections are conservative when it comes to injuries so if you set up an injury prone but talented team you'll tend to get a pretty nice projection. If the Mets can stay healthy that rotation is a beast - better than the Nats 1-5 (though not as good 1-3) and the offense is fine. Basically healthy they are of similar talent to the Nats. Unfortunately starting pitching health is tough to bet on and the Mets have only made it work one year in this window (where as the Nats with more reliable SP has pretty much only had side issues most years). So can the Mets win? Yep. Will they? That's up to the injury gods.
It goes along with something I was twittering about yesterday, how 2019 Rendon is a HUGE loss and the idea that the Nats can make that up is close to wishful thinking. He was better than Soto at the plate last year (I was having a discussion on whether it was slightly or significantly better) and of course, if you use the idea of 3 years of data, much better in the field. Even if Soto takes his place with a step forward offensively (not crazy given his age and progression so far which is great because we're talking about MVP levels) he won't replace the fielding and oh yeah - who fills that spot Soto just left?
The general answer is - well Kieboom/Cabrera will be good and the bullpen will be better and the Nats won't be as unlucky as last year, which possibly, probably (it could hardly not be), and actually the Nats had pretty even luck for the season as a whole.
This, of course, doesn't mean the Nats are bad and won't make the playoffs. They are good. They'll be a game or two worse if all goes as planned. That's good enough to make the playoffs as is and if they get some good luck (or no other NL East team gets good luck) they could take the division. But still the possibility of a stalled offense around a constantly walked Soto isn't out of the question.
But back to the Mets. Why do the Mets rate favorably? Same reason past Nats teams have - projections are conservative when it comes to injuries so if you set up an injury prone but talented team you'll tend to get a pretty nice projection. If the Mets can stay healthy that rotation is a beast - better than the Nats 1-5 (though not as good 1-3) and the offense is fine. Basically healthy they are of similar talent to the Nats. Unfortunately starting pitching health is tough to bet on and the Mets have only made it work one year in this window (where as the Nats with more reliable SP has pretty much only had side issues most years). So can the Mets win? Yep. Will they? That's up to the injury gods.
Wednesday, February 19, 2020
What to do about the Astros?
I haven't really addressed it here but if you only get your news from Natsbaseball (good choice I'll add) then the Astros are cheaters! No need to link anything but the problem isn't going away despite that being the initial goal of major league baseball. Do an investigation, punish a few people that were in management roles at the time, and move on. Fans would be upset, but let's face it they are going to be upset regardless. The end.
But it wasn't because other players were really pissed off at the lack of player punishment and the seeming shrug of shoulders at what the league could do about what already happened.
I think though the problem wasn't the punishment but the messaging. In terms of the punishment - what can major league baseball can do? Here are some of my thoughts...
Vacate the 2017 World Series title - Man, I hate when the NCAA does this. Even though it makes sense in a way "You wouldn't have won if you didn't do this wrong thing" it still feels like trying to deny what we saw. The Astros won and vacating just changes the story to "that's dumb - we can't pretend it didn't happen". The focus should remain on the cheating.
Alternative - Note everywhere the Astros cheated. Any sort of official write-up of the history of baseball will note that the Astros were later punished for cheating during this time frame.
Alternative - Don't let the Astros celebrate the title. Allow no official team sponsored celebratory event. Banners come down. Decorations packed up. No merch related to it. No bobbleheads or anniversary special nights or anything. It's nothing to celebrate. It's something to be ashamed of.
Ban the Astros from playing in the playoffs for X years - this is tough because it could change the nature of competition. If the Astros can't play in the playoffs all of a sudden they have no impetus to win. Things like "not signing free agents" or "looking for trades" would ultimately be spread among the other 29 teams as they decide to try to benefit, but the end product, a garbage Houston Astros team, would create unequal benefit. The AL West teams would be more likely to get more wins out of it, leading to an imbalance in chance to make the playoffs or get home field. It could be said this is fine. It makes up for the fact they were hurt by the Astros cheating more than other teams. However, two wrongs don't make a right. MLB can't be in the business of creating winners and losers.
Alternative - Astros get no money from post-season appearances - whatever the TV split is or the revenue from games, the Astros have to give that to some charity somewhere. Sure it could have the same effect but try selling that to your fanbase. "We aren't winning because we can't make the extra money that comes with it"
Suspend the players involved for X games - talk about a can of worms. Who gets suspended and for how long? Everyone on the 2017 team, or 2017-2019? Pitchers as well as hitters? What about guys who got called up and played like a game? What about guys who got traded? On an extreme end you could have a minor league pitcher traded to the Astros in late 2018, a season they weren't officially pegged as cheaters in, called up for a game, traded away in the off-season suspended for multiple games. That seems completely unfair. Oh - "he knew about it"? Sure. But apparently probably less than like the majority of other major league players. Why does he get punished when say some Mariner who heard about it from his friend on the Astros in 2017 played against them 57 times noting the cheating to his teammates, but not the league, gets off?
Not to mention we're punishing other teams who may have picked up Astros. You want Will Harris suspended for 30 games? What happens to their contract money? They still get paid for not playing as they normally would? So now teams are paying twice for the Astros cheating?
Alternative - all Astros in 2017 play for the minimum in 2020, difference in salary goes to same place fines go - Take the money. Almost all you can do is take the money. That's what it comes down to. This way teams that signed guys don't get punished (unless these guys are real jerks and stop trying because they aren't getting paid millions) but they also don't get some sort of competitive balance advantage. I'm sure you'd agree the Yankees don't need an extra few tens of millions of found money to spend.
To get back to the messaging, all this could have been conveyed originally. "We want to punish the team and the players with suspensions but we see no way of doing that without disturbing the competitive balance in the league and hurting other, uninvolved teams, in the process." Make everyone understand this was a goal but an unobtainable one.
Of course they didn't do this in part because that never was a goal and it's clear. The goal was to make it go away as quickly as possible. People are going hard after Manfred but Manfred is little more than the mouthpiece of owners. The question is why do the owners want it to go away as soon as possible. The answer, like always, is probably money. Make it a big deal and maybe people turn away from the game. Have it go away quickly and the money train keeps rolling. At least that's my guess.
But it wasn't because other players were really pissed off at the lack of player punishment and the seeming shrug of shoulders at what the league could do about what already happened.
I think though the problem wasn't the punishment but the messaging. In terms of the punishment - what can major league baseball can do? Here are some of my thoughts...
Vacate the 2017 World Series title - Man, I hate when the NCAA does this. Even though it makes sense in a way "You wouldn't have won if you didn't do this wrong thing" it still feels like trying to deny what we saw. The Astros won and vacating just changes the story to "that's dumb - we can't pretend it didn't happen". The focus should remain on the cheating.
Alternative - Note everywhere the Astros cheated. Any sort of official write-up of the history of baseball will note that the Astros were later punished for cheating during this time frame.
Alternative - Don't let the Astros celebrate the title. Allow no official team sponsored celebratory event. Banners come down. Decorations packed up. No merch related to it. No bobbleheads or anniversary special nights or anything. It's nothing to celebrate. It's something to be ashamed of.
Ban the Astros from playing in the playoffs for X years - this is tough because it could change the nature of competition. If the Astros can't play in the playoffs all of a sudden they have no impetus to win. Things like "not signing free agents" or "looking for trades" would ultimately be spread among the other 29 teams as they decide to try to benefit, but the end product, a garbage Houston Astros team, would create unequal benefit. The AL West teams would be more likely to get more wins out of it, leading to an imbalance in chance to make the playoffs or get home field. It could be said this is fine. It makes up for the fact they were hurt by the Astros cheating more than other teams. However, two wrongs don't make a right. MLB can't be in the business of creating winners and losers.
Alternative - Astros get no money from post-season appearances - whatever the TV split is or the revenue from games, the Astros have to give that to some charity somewhere. Sure it could have the same effect but try selling that to your fanbase. "We aren't winning because we can't make the extra money that comes with it"
Suspend the players involved for X games - talk about a can of worms. Who gets suspended and for how long? Everyone on the 2017 team, or 2017-2019? Pitchers as well as hitters? What about guys who got called up and played like a game? What about guys who got traded? On an extreme end you could have a minor league pitcher traded to the Astros in late 2018, a season they weren't officially pegged as cheaters in, called up for a game, traded away in the off-season suspended for multiple games. That seems completely unfair. Oh - "he knew about it"? Sure. But apparently probably less than like the majority of other major league players. Why does he get punished when say some Mariner who heard about it from his friend on the Astros in 2017 played against them 57 times noting the cheating to his teammates, but not the league, gets off?
Not to mention we're punishing other teams who may have picked up Astros. You want Will Harris suspended for 30 games? What happens to their contract money? They still get paid for not playing as they normally would? So now teams are paying twice for the Astros cheating?
Alternative - all Astros in 2017 play for the minimum in 2020, difference in salary goes to same place fines go - Take the money. Almost all you can do is take the money. That's what it comes down to. This way teams that signed guys don't get punished (unless these guys are real jerks and stop trying because they aren't getting paid millions) but they also don't get some sort of competitive balance advantage. I'm sure you'd agree the Yankees don't need an extra few tens of millions of found money to spend.
To get back to the messaging, all this could have been conveyed originally. "We want to punish the team and the players with suspensions but we see no way of doing that without disturbing the competitive balance in the league and hurting other, uninvolved teams, in the process." Make everyone understand this was a goal but an unobtainable one.
Of course they didn't do this in part because that never was a goal and it's clear. The goal was to make it go away as quickly as possible. People are going hard after Manfred but Manfred is little more than the mouthpiece of owners. The question is why do the owners want it to go away as soon as possible. The answer, like always, is probably money. Make it a big deal and maybe people turn away from the game. Have it go away quickly and the money train keeps rolling. At least that's my guess.
Monday, February 17, 2020
Monday Quickie - Other Kiebooms
The Nats Carter Kieboom is going to be an important piece in the Nats plans and a good year by him would go quite a ways to covering for the loss of Rendon. You can imagine in your head a break out year by Carter leading to an easy Nats division title. But every team has their Kiebooms and how they do could also throw the balance of the NL East.
Braves
The Braves are in "this is when the plan comes together" time. Last year it took them to a division title (and another early round exit). This year it could take them even further as the minor league cupboard is far from bare. Specifically the Braves have two guys, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, looking to make the OD rotation, and one other, Ian Anderson who is looking to come up later in the year that's arguably better than both of them. A breakout starter is worth his weight in gold and because a rotation is five deep there isn't much standing in the way of these guys sticking if they deserve it.
(They also have two top OF propects that could play in 2020 but with Ozuna, Acuna, and Inciarte backed up by Markakis and Duvall they don't feel the need to rush them and their impact this year should be muted call-up impact. Keep the name Cristian Pache in the back of your head if there are some OF injuries. Think Robles - a little less speed a little more power. Now imagine Robles actually clicked right away like you hoped he would. It could happen!)
Mets
Andres Gimenez is the player that could fit the bill of a Kieboom but that's a stretch. He doesn't have a place right now given there's a perfectly competent young SS in Amed Rosario in front of him, the bat of Jeff McNeil at 3b, and the contract of Robinson Cano at 2b. Gimenez also had a pretty poor 2019 lacking the doubles power he showed in 2018. Normally this type of player wouldn't even register here. However he may be pushed because the Mets have a new SS they like better in Ronny Mauricio coming up behind him. They might as well see what they have in Gimenez to evaluate him for trade purposes. Also Cano was bad and he's old so maybe he'll crash out. The combination of those two forces could mean a fair amount of Gimenez playing time. The chances are slim but but if a couple disparate things comes together this fringy 100 prospect might make a differece.
Phillies
Bryce mentioned not wanting to give up Alec Bohm for Kris Bryant and if you look at this guys rise you can see wise. He's not as good as say a Rendon or a Zimm - certainly not in the field where he could be moved - but you could argue he's better at the plate than Kieboom. He's a beast who doesn't miss the ball (very low K rate) and has real power when he hits it. If they can find a place for him there's real breakout potential here. The same can be said for SP prospect Spencer Howard who looked just as good in AA as rookie ball coming back from injury. He's projected to have top of the rotation stuff... if he can stay healthy. He's a little less likely to impact 2020 because he'll probably be on an innings limit, but I can see the Phillies pulling something like a very slow start to the year - maybe starting once a week, then coming in for May on to try to maximize his impact on this season for a rotation that sorely needs an impact arm.
Kieboom is probably the most likely player to have an impact. He's the consistently highest ranked and he has the spot laid out for him. After that I'd say a Brave pitcher, though it's hard to bet on a single choice. Bohm should come in third here, above the chance of a 2nd Braves pitcher. It's that depth of the Braves minors that makes them scary and while they project a little low in their win totals, they should be able to counter the inevitable injuries better than any other NL East team. That's why they remain the Nats main threat - best other team in NL East with the most security. The Phillies probably aren't even as good as the Mets but there are several players on the team that could have big jumps in 2020 and then these two who could have impact. The Mets might be the 3rd best team in the East but they are a what you see is what you get squad. Pitching injuries would decimate them but line-up injuries too would be hard to overcome. It's a team with a razor thin margin for error and if you bet on chaos you could do worse than bet on the Mets doing terribly
Braves
The Braves are in "this is when the plan comes together" time. Last year it took them to a division title (and another early round exit). This year it could take them even further as the minor league cupboard is far from bare. Specifically the Braves have two guys, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson, looking to make the OD rotation, and one other, Ian Anderson who is looking to come up later in the year that's arguably better than both of them. A breakout starter is worth his weight in gold and because a rotation is five deep there isn't much standing in the way of these guys sticking if they deserve it.
(They also have two top OF propects that could play in 2020 but with Ozuna, Acuna, and Inciarte backed up by Markakis and Duvall they don't feel the need to rush them and their impact this year should be muted call-up impact. Keep the name Cristian Pache in the back of your head if there are some OF injuries. Think Robles - a little less speed a little more power. Now imagine Robles actually clicked right away like you hoped he would. It could happen!)
Mets
Andres Gimenez is the player that could fit the bill of a Kieboom but that's a stretch. He doesn't have a place right now given there's a perfectly competent young SS in Amed Rosario in front of him, the bat of Jeff McNeil at 3b, and the contract of Robinson Cano at 2b. Gimenez also had a pretty poor 2019 lacking the doubles power he showed in 2018. Normally this type of player wouldn't even register here. However he may be pushed because the Mets have a new SS they like better in Ronny Mauricio coming up behind him. They might as well see what they have in Gimenez to evaluate him for trade purposes. Also Cano was bad and he's old so maybe he'll crash out. The combination of those two forces could mean a fair amount of Gimenez playing time. The chances are slim but but if a couple disparate things comes together this fringy 100 prospect might make a differece.
Phillies
Bryce mentioned not wanting to give up Alec Bohm for Kris Bryant and if you look at this guys rise you can see wise. He's not as good as say a Rendon or a Zimm - certainly not in the field where he could be moved - but you could argue he's better at the plate than Kieboom. He's a beast who doesn't miss the ball (very low K rate) and has real power when he hits it. If they can find a place for him there's real breakout potential here. The same can be said for SP prospect Spencer Howard who looked just as good in AA as rookie ball coming back from injury. He's projected to have top of the rotation stuff... if he can stay healthy. He's a little less likely to impact 2020 because he'll probably be on an innings limit, but I can see the Phillies pulling something like a very slow start to the year - maybe starting once a week, then coming in for May on to try to maximize his impact on this season for a rotation that sorely needs an impact arm.
Kieboom is probably the most likely player to have an impact. He's the consistently highest ranked and he has the spot laid out for him. After that I'd say a Brave pitcher, though it's hard to bet on a single choice. Bohm should come in third here, above the chance of a 2nd Braves pitcher. It's that depth of the Braves minors that makes them scary and while they project a little low in their win totals, they should be able to counter the inevitable injuries better than any other NL East team. That's why they remain the Nats main threat - best other team in NL East with the most security. The Phillies probably aren't even as good as the Mets but there are several players on the team that could have big jumps in 2020 and then these two who could have impact. The Mets might be the 3rd best team in the East but they are a what you see is what you get squad. Pitching injuries would decimate them but line-up injuries too would be hard to overcome. It's a team with a razor thin margin for error and if you bet on chaos you could do worse than bet on the Mets doing terribly
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Friday Quickie?
It's been a while and I don't even have a good excuse like vacation or something. I mean I do have a baby but it's not like a NEW baby and I powered through that in the playoffs. And yes I'm away for work which is actually surprisingly harder to find free time but still I'm just getting to old for this blogging world, time to shuffle off to Facebook or something...
Eh ok I'll give it another year.
We're at pitchers and catchers now which is great but when you win a Championship... I don't want to say you don't want the next season to start but the next season means you have to defend the championship and you realize you likely won't and can't we just give out rings (4/4) and raise a banner (4/2) then have another parade and a month of realizing we are champions?
The Nats come into Spring with one real question - will Carter Kieboom start at 3rd or not? If not, it will presumably be Asdrubal Cabrera but really if not, what does that mean for Kieboom long term? Are there bullpen battles? 5th starter battles? Last man on bench battles? Yep yep yep. But these are things every team faces every year. It's this question - what is Carter Kieboom for 2020 and beyond - that is THE question of spring.
Why should the Nats start Cabrera? He's been an above average hitter every year since 2015... ok every year but last year but last year he was great for the Nats. His fielding has dropped off but as that has happened he's shifted around the diamond and 3B seems like a decent fit for the 34 year old Asdrubal. In short, he's likely to be a good major league player. That can't be said of Carter Kieboom, who's trial in 2019 was terrible - hitting under .200 while striking out 40% of the time and having only 2 XBH.
Why should the Nats start Kieboom? There's little for him to get out of AAA. He played 109 games there last year and hit .303 / .409 / .493. That's good enough to warrant a full trial. For all that Cabrera brings, he doesn't bring it beyond 2020. He's only signed through this season and Kieboom is set up to be the future at some point. Why not give him this year, a post championship "Who really cares if we win*" year, to figure things out?
We have too little about Kieboom to speculate as outsiders. We have to watch him in Spring, like the Nats will, and see what he does. Twist my arm and I'll say he starts in AAA because he can.
Back to MWF next week until the daily work of the regular season because that's what we do here.
*You'll be surprised how much you do care come October.
Eh ok I'll give it another year.
We're at pitchers and catchers now which is great but when you win a Championship... I don't want to say you don't want the next season to start but the next season means you have to defend the championship and you realize you likely won't and can't we just give out rings (4/4) and raise a banner (4/2) then have another parade and a month of realizing we are champions?
The Nats come into Spring with one real question - will Carter Kieboom start at 3rd or not? If not, it will presumably be Asdrubal Cabrera but really if not, what does that mean for Kieboom long term? Are there bullpen battles? 5th starter battles? Last man on bench battles? Yep yep yep. But these are things every team faces every year. It's this question - what is Carter Kieboom for 2020 and beyond - that is THE question of spring.
Why should the Nats start Cabrera? He's been an above average hitter every year since 2015... ok every year but last year but last year he was great for the Nats. His fielding has dropped off but as that has happened he's shifted around the diamond and 3B seems like a decent fit for the 34 year old Asdrubal. In short, he's likely to be a good major league player. That can't be said of Carter Kieboom, who's trial in 2019 was terrible - hitting under .200 while striking out 40% of the time and having only 2 XBH.
Why should the Nats start Kieboom? There's little for him to get out of AAA. He played 109 games there last year and hit .303 / .409 / .493. That's good enough to warrant a full trial. For all that Cabrera brings, he doesn't bring it beyond 2020. He's only signed through this season and Kieboom is set up to be the future at some point. Why not give him this year, a post championship "Who really cares if we win*" year, to figure things out?
We have too little about Kieboom to speculate as outsiders. We have to watch him in Spring, like the Nats will, and see what he does. Twist my arm and I'll say he starts in AAA because he can.
Back to MWF next week until the daily work of the regular season because that's what we do here.
*You'll be surprised how much you do care come October.
Tuesday, February 04, 2020
Quick NL East feelings
The off-season is now pretty much over. There are potential trades left. Mookie Betts is a forgone conclusion at this point, but isn't going to anywhere in the NL East. Kris Bryant is less likely, and given he's not a FA after this season after losing his grievance case, most people think the Cubs will sit on a high price no one will meet this off-season, compete this year, and trade him next possibly as part of a mini-tear down.
That leaves the NL East pretty much set now and I have opinions on the teams going into next season
Quick takes :
Braves - Should have went for it, but instead testing out SP. I get it but still, when the doors open to take the division, take it
Nationals - Ditto, but instead of testing out SP, being the Nats with smart moves to build a playoff competitor. Could have passed Braves, chose not to. But hey - Champs!
Mets - Continue to frustrate fans by trying to do a Nationals without the Nationals talent or health history. It can work (see 2015) but it's an uphill battle for them in this divison
Phillies - I don't get it. Clearly looking for a bounce back seasons. From the offense that's understandable. From the pitching that's confusing and should fail.
Marlins - Get too much flack probably but sorry Jeter. Team hasn't had a history of ownership doing what they should so despite things coming along you'll have to lump it (then prove you will do what you should when it's tim)
Atlanta Braves - Gambling on Youth.
Josh Donaldson is a Twin. Julio Teheran is an Angel. Dallas Keuchel is a White Sock. Brian McCann is retired. Jerry Blevins is a Giant. Josh Tomlin, Anthony Swarzak are still looking. Most of these guys weren't particularly good, but none were bad and they ate up a lot of innings and at bats for the Braves. They were replaced with a different set of veterans, Cole Hamels, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, but really what the Braves are doing is gambling that youth will step up.
Primarily how the youth does will matter in the rotation where nearly 300 IP of 120+ ERA are gone. They have a half-dozen legit prospects or guys with good AAA stats to throw out there but the last jump can be the hardest and they have to contend with possible dropping off of other starters (look at Folty 2018 to 2019). But it's also true that they are looking for someone to join Freeman as a star bat. Acuna was just off that last year, a little too impatient, a little too much all or nothing. Will it be him? Albies? Riley? Dansby or Carmago pulling a Ian Desmond? The Braves should be good next year and their off-season plan understood they could probably give all these guys chances and still stay in the division hunt. But rather than go big and run and hide from the NL East they let themselves likely slip back into the pack.
Washington Nationals - Keeping on keeping on
The Nats spent the past 8 seasons putting together good teams, 90 type win teams, and seeing the season play out figuring getting to the playoffs is all that can be promised. For 7 seasons that led to heartbreak but in the 8th quantity finally paid off. How did they respond to finally getting a run of luck? By doing nothing different. They made the sensible decision to keep Strasburg while letting Rendon go. They picked up a fair number of decent RP to cover the terribleness of last year, and a fair number of decent vet MIs to try to luck into someone having a career year while maintaining a good shot of nothing terrible happening.
The Nats have always been a team lead by their starting pitching and keeping Strasburg allows the Nats to once again have perhaps the best 1-2-3 in baseball. As long as they stay healthy that's enough to be in the playoff mix. There's a sense that the offense has to take a step back but it's hard to see a massive drop off from the team. The biggest question may be health. There are some age questions here - Suzuki, Kendrick, Sanchez 36, Max, Zimm, acquired Will Harris 35 and the starters and key relievers got pushed extra hard last year. But the Nats are not in the same position as other years. If things fall apart this year and they have to rebuild it's ok. They won. Much like the Braves they could have went big and go for a second title, but instead they are content to be in it and see what happens and this plan let's them reasonably do that.
New York Mets - In for a penny
The Mets can't ever really commit. Every off-season they seem to make one or two moves that portend a larger one but the larger one never comes. This off-season was no different. They loaded up on SP options, bringing in Porcello, Wacha to go along with the guys they have (DeGrom, Thor, Matz) and the late season acquired Stroman. They tried again to fix the pen bringing in Betances. But there wasn't the corresponding offensive move. There's a chance that the Braves and Nats both take half-steps back to meet the Mets half-step forward but you have to wonder why they didn't take a full-step forward and really make themselves a contender.
Perhaps it's because ultimately the Mets season depends on starting pitching health which is a hard thing to depend on especially when your track record isn't great. So now the Mets hopes depend on two gambles. The first being the SP is healthy, which they tried to cover for a little with depth. The second is that something clicks in an offense that is just a little lacking and is just a likely to take a step back after some career seasons than another step forward.
Philadelphia Phillies - It's gotta be the manager
I don't know what the Phillies are doing. Offensively you can squint and see what they see. It was an offense built for 2019 that had the wheels come off for reasons we don't really understand. Across the board hitters like Realmuto, Hoskins, Bryce, Segura, Bruce were at least a half-step worse than they should have been for no explainable reason. So add another good bat in Gregorious change the manager and coaching staff and try again. This shouldn't be a middling offense and we should see improvement just by change in 2020 and there could be a big jump.
But the pitching, last year you could look at the rotation and based on the line-up justify it by saying you were trying to see what you had in mid20s+ guys like Eflin, Velasquez, Pivetta, Eickhoff, and you'd make adjustments in the off-season if necessary. Well the season showed that they didn't have much with these guys. It's likely one or maybe two would be back of the rotation filler (likely Eflin) but the rest were replaceable. You also saw an Arrieta aging before your eyes. The Phillies really needed a second ace or two reliable 2-3 starters to go along with Nola who they hoped to rebound. They got Wheeler the off-seasons cheap "maybe he'll be an ace" option and nothing else. So now the Phillies have to have everything go right starting pitching wise. Nola or Wheeler have to be an ace and the other one a worthy companion. Arrieta or Eflin has to be a good #3. Two of the others have to be decent filler. It's a stretch and it's more likely that even if the offense improves as is likely they'll be a big bat no pitch team trying to bash their way into the playoffs. That may work in other divisions but the NL East has three teams with better plans.
Miami Marlins - Quietly amassing pitching and guys to trade for pitching
The Marlins aren't winning in 2020, or 2021 for that matter. So the middling signings they made make sense. If a Dickerson or Cervelli or Joyce or Kintzler break out they deal them and get something back to add to the system. Meanwhile Sandy Alcantara is joined by three other pitchers 24 or younger to see if they can uncover a gem, while better shots like Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera start to appear. Depending on the Nats health and the Braves development they could have a top rotation in the NL East come 2022/2023.
Of course that's only half the game and while they have a lot of guys in the pipeline the current offensive prospects haven't quite worked out. They hope Alfaro develops beyond a usable catcher, which is something but not a cornerstone. Brinson is a washout. Isan Diaz's tryout went poorly. Someone will develop out of the guys they have but they are only adding to the likes of Alfaro and Brian Anderson which leaves a lot of holes and no stars. Come 2022/2023 the question will be if the Marlins pay out for the bats they need to take the next step. Just two years ago they had the offense set with Stanton, Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, but realized they had no pitching and bailed on the team rather than pay out. To prove anything is different they'll have to buy in when it's time. But that's for a later. 2020 will just to be seeing if they can finish 4th over whichever NL East team has the worst luck.
That leaves the NL East pretty much set now and I have opinions on the teams going into next season
Quick takes :
Braves - Should have went for it, but instead testing out SP. I get it but still, when the doors open to take the division, take it
Nationals - Ditto, but instead of testing out SP, being the Nats with smart moves to build a playoff competitor. Could have passed Braves, chose not to. But hey - Champs!
Mets - Continue to frustrate fans by trying to do a Nationals without the Nationals talent or health history. It can work (see 2015) but it's an uphill battle for them in this divison
Phillies - I don't get it. Clearly looking for a bounce back seasons. From the offense that's understandable. From the pitching that's confusing and should fail.
Marlins - Get too much flack probably but sorry Jeter. Team hasn't had a history of ownership doing what they should so despite things coming along you'll have to lump it (then prove you will do what you should when it's tim)
Atlanta Braves - Gambling on Youth.
Josh Donaldson is a Twin. Julio Teheran is an Angel. Dallas Keuchel is a White Sock. Brian McCann is retired. Jerry Blevins is a Giant. Josh Tomlin, Anthony Swarzak are still looking. Most of these guys weren't particularly good, but none were bad and they ate up a lot of innings and at bats for the Braves. They were replaced with a different set of veterans, Cole Hamels, Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, but really what the Braves are doing is gambling that youth will step up.
Primarily how the youth does will matter in the rotation where nearly 300 IP of 120+ ERA are gone. They have a half-dozen legit prospects or guys with good AAA stats to throw out there but the last jump can be the hardest and they have to contend with possible dropping off of other starters (look at Folty 2018 to 2019). But it's also true that they are looking for someone to join Freeman as a star bat. Acuna was just off that last year, a little too impatient, a little too much all or nothing. Will it be him? Albies? Riley? Dansby or Carmago pulling a Ian Desmond? The Braves should be good next year and their off-season plan understood they could probably give all these guys chances and still stay in the division hunt. But rather than go big and run and hide from the NL East they let themselves likely slip back into the pack.
Washington Nationals - Keeping on keeping on
The Nats spent the past 8 seasons putting together good teams, 90 type win teams, and seeing the season play out figuring getting to the playoffs is all that can be promised. For 7 seasons that led to heartbreak but in the 8th quantity finally paid off. How did they respond to finally getting a run of luck? By doing nothing different. They made the sensible decision to keep Strasburg while letting Rendon go. They picked up a fair number of decent RP to cover the terribleness of last year, and a fair number of decent vet MIs to try to luck into someone having a career year while maintaining a good shot of nothing terrible happening.
The Nats have always been a team lead by their starting pitching and keeping Strasburg allows the Nats to once again have perhaps the best 1-2-3 in baseball. As long as they stay healthy that's enough to be in the playoff mix. There's a sense that the offense has to take a step back but it's hard to see a massive drop off from the team. The biggest question may be health. There are some age questions here - Suzuki, Kendrick, Sanchez 36, Max, Zimm, acquired Will Harris 35 and the starters and key relievers got pushed extra hard last year. But the Nats are not in the same position as other years. If things fall apart this year and they have to rebuild it's ok. They won. Much like the Braves they could have went big and go for a second title, but instead they are content to be in it and see what happens and this plan let's them reasonably do that.
New York Mets - In for a penny
The Mets can't ever really commit. Every off-season they seem to make one or two moves that portend a larger one but the larger one never comes. This off-season was no different. They loaded up on SP options, bringing in Porcello, Wacha to go along with the guys they have (DeGrom, Thor, Matz) and the late season acquired Stroman. They tried again to fix the pen bringing in Betances. But there wasn't the corresponding offensive move. There's a chance that the Braves and Nats both take half-steps back to meet the Mets half-step forward but you have to wonder why they didn't take a full-step forward and really make themselves a contender.
Perhaps it's because ultimately the Mets season depends on starting pitching health which is a hard thing to depend on especially when your track record isn't great. So now the Mets hopes depend on two gambles. The first being the SP is healthy, which they tried to cover for a little with depth. The second is that something clicks in an offense that is just a little lacking and is just a likely to take a step back after some career seasons than another step forward.
Philadelphia Phillies - It's gotta be the manager
I don't know what the Phillies are doing. Offensively you can squint and see what they see. It was an offense built for 2019 that had the wheels come off for reasons we don't really understand. Across the board hitters like Realmuto, Hoskins, Bryce, Segura, Bruce were at least a half-step worse than they should have been for no explainable reason. So add another good bat in Gregorious change the manager and coaching staff and try again. This shouldn't be a middling offense and we should see improvement just by change in 2020 and there could be a big jump.
But the pitching, last year you could look at the rotation and based on the line-up justify it by saying you were trying to see what you had in mid20s+ guys like Eflin, Velasquez, Pivetta, Eickhoff, and you'd make adjustments in the off-season if necessary. Well the season showed that they didn't have much with these guys. It's likely one or maybe two would be back of the rotation filler (likely Eflin) but the rest were replaceable. You also saw an Arrieta aging before your eyes. The Phillies really needed a second ace or two reliable 2-3 starters to go along with Nola who they hoped to rebound. They got Wheeler the off-seasons cheap "maybe he'll be an ace" option and nothing else. So now the Phillies have to have everything go right starting pitching wise. Nola or Wheeler have to be an ace and the other one a worthy companion. Arrieta or Eflin has to be a good #3. Two of the others have to be decent filler. It's a stretch and it's more likely that even if the offense improves as is likely they'll be a big bat no pitch team trying to bash their way into the playoffs. That may work in other divisions but the NL East has three teams with better plans.
Miami Marlins - Quietly amassing pitching and guys to trade for pitching
The Marlins aren't winning in 2020, or 2021 for that matter. So the middling signings they made make sense. If a Dickerson or Cervelli or Joyce or Kintzler break out they deal them and get something back to add to the system. Meanwhile Sandy Alcantara is joined by three other pitchers 24 or younger to see if they can uncover a gem, while better shots like Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera start to appear. Depending on the Nats health and the Braves development they could have a top rotation in the NL East come 2022/2023.
Of course that's only half the game and while they have a lot of guys in the pipeline the current offensive prospects haven't quite worked out. They hope Alfaro develops beyond a usable catcher, which is something but not a cornerstone. Brinson is a washout. Isan Diaz's tryout went poorly. Someone will develop out of the guys they have but they are only adding to the likes of Alfaro and Brian Anderson which leaves a lot of holes and no stars. Come 2022/2023 the question will be if the Marlins pay out for the bats they need to take the next step. Just two years ago they had the offense set with Stanton, Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, but realized they had no pitching and bailed on the team rather than pay out. To prove anything is different they'll have to buy in when it's time. But that's for a later. 2020 will just to be seeing if they can finish 4th over whichever NL East team has the worst luck.
Thursday, January 30, 2020
Harper on the Nats!
Roll call news
The Nats brought back Emilio Bonifacio. No shame if you don't remember his first time in DC. It was over a decade ago, short (41 games) and unremarkable. Bonifacio is organizational depth only. He was last a usable major league player WAY back in 2014. Since then he's dropped out of the major and filled only AAA roles. Chances of him getting a million dollar salary to play in the majors are exceedingly slim. Nothing to see here.
The Nats trade for Ryne Harper. Ryne Harper... is not bad. He worked his way up through the ATL minors as a "this guys seems pretty good - oh he's how old? Not interested" guy. He eventually got pushed to Seattle who dumped him after a mediocre trial in AAA for them. Minnesota picked him up and he kept on being pretty good, got into the majors and was still pretty good. Thing is - teams like their upside in the bullpen. They'd rather have 4 arms where 3 could be terrible, if one could turn into a stud, than one meh arm. Ryne is a meh arm. He gives up too many hits, too many homers, and doesn't strike out enough to be an impact arm. He's also getting up in age meaning you can't really rely on that meh (see: Barraclough, Kyle). But he showed decent control and he doesn't give up too many hits, homers, or strike out too few to be usable and if you are to try to guess a decent 50 IP is probable and there isn't anything wrong with that.
Who'd they give up? Hunter McMahon, who if you look at the stats might worry you. A 0.71 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 12.8 K/9?!? But Hunter was an older rookie league and low A player and pitched all of 12 innings last year (he was drafted last year too) meaning one bad outing and he's a 3.00 ERA guy with more reasonable numbers. He's the type that came in with no hype so isn't on even the Nats internal top prospects lists, not even as a guy to keep an eye on. But he is a guy that probably would be on there somewhere with a good 2020 in A and A+ ball. But still that's a NATS top prospect list not an overall one. He's not passing Cronin and a number of failed starters with just a good 2020.*
For people excited about the Ryne pick-up or thinking Bonifacio will make a great AAA vet to have around, the Mets signed Eduardo Nunez, Rene Rivera, and Erasmo Ramirez. So what? Exactly. Now you know how other teams fans view these Nats moves.
The Astros sign Dusty to manage. Good for him. I hope he doesn't get his ring because that would mean the Yankees didn't make the series but I hope that he does well and if he does well isn't immediately replaced. He's proven himself more than a capable manager leaving the questions about starter usage back over 15 years ago and several managerial stops. Any team looking to make the playoffs should be fighting over this guy and it's a shame that untested nothings get first crack nowadays. Go get them, Dusty.
*Of course given the Nats luck with RP say hello to the 2021 AL ROY.
The Nats brought back Emilio Bonifacio. No shame if you don't remember his first time in DC. It was over a decade ago, short (41 games) and unremarkable. Bonifacio is organizational depth only. He was last a usable major league player WAY back in 2014. Since then he's dropped out of the major and filled only AAA roles. Chances of him getting a million dollar salary to play in the majors are exceedingly slim. Nothing to see here.
The Nats trade for Ryne Harper. Ryne Harper... is not bad. He worked his way up through the ATL minors as a "this guys seems pretty good - oh he's how old? Not interested" guy. He eventually got pushed to Seattle who dumped him after a mediocre trial in AAA for them. Minnesota picked him up and he kept on being pretty good, got into the majors and was still pretty good. Thing is - teams like their upside in the bullpen. They'd rather have 4 arms where 3 could be terrible, if one could turn into a stud, than one meh arm. Ryne is a meh arm. He gives up too many hits, too many homers, and doesn't strike out enough to be an impact arm. He's also getting up in age meaning you can't really rely on that meh (see: Barraclough, Kyle). But he showed decent control and he doesn't give up too many hits, homers, or strike out too few to be usable and if you are to try to guess a decent 50 IP is probable and there isn't anything wrong with that.
Who'd they give up? Hunter McMahon, who if you look at the stats might worry you. A 0.71 ERA, 1.4 BB/9, 12.8 K/9?!? But Hunter was an older rookie league and low A player and pitched all of 12 innings last year (he was drafted last year too) meaning one bad outing and he's a 3.00 ERA guy with more reasonable numbers. He's the type that came in with no hype so isn't on even the Nats internal top prospects lists, not even as a guy to keep an eye on. But he is a guy that probably would be on there somewhere with a good 2020 in A and A+ ball. But still that's a NATS top prospect list not an overall one. He's not passing Cronin and a number of failed starters with just a good 2020.*
For people excited about the Ryne pick-up or thinking Bonifacio will make a great AAA vet to have around, the Mets signed Eduardo Nunez, Rene Rivera, and Erasmo Ramirez. So what? Exactly. Now you know how other teams fans view these Nats moves.
The Astros sign Dusty to manage. Good for him. I hope he doesn't get his ring because that would mean the Yankees didn't make the series but I hope that he does well and if he does well isn't immediately replaced. He's proven himself more than a capable manager leaving the questions about starter usage back over 15 years ago and several managerial stops. Any team looking to make the playoffs should be fighting over this guy and it's a shame that untested nothings get first crack nowadays. Go get them, Dusty.
*Of course given the Nats luck with RP say hello to the 2021 AL ROY.
Monday, January 27, 2020
Monday Quickie : Ozuna talk
Ozuna was signed by the Braves last week. Nats fans remember Ozuna from the NLCS, where like every Cardinal, he was embarrassingly bad at the plate*, and like some Cardinals, embarrassingly bad in the field. But that's not Ozuna. The question is who IS Ozuna.
For most the question is settled. He's an above average bat and a decent fielder. Solid power, little patience, enough skill to be a decent baserunner when he puts his mind to it. This has been a fair genearal description of Ozuna over the past few years. But what to make of 2017? Ozuna hit .312 that year and got some MVP votes. Was that just a fluke?
I think it kind of was but he might be able to repeat it. If you look at Ozuna's fancy stats he was remarkably consistent as a Marlin in the type of hits he got (LD/FB/GB), where he hit them (PULL/CF/OPPO) and how hard he hit them. What changed in 2017 was some BABIP luck and a bunch of homers going over the fence. The former took a dip in St. Louis, first back to normal and then what appears to be oddly low. But Ozuna became a straight pull hitter in St. Louis, so even though he was hitting the ball a lot harder, he could have been shifted out of several hits. There is thought that this change was because of his shoulder injury though, and a rehabbed and healthy Ozuna could go back to his old ways.
This sets up a scenario where Ozuna goes back to his all fields hitting and the ball remains juiced and the Braves have indeed found a fringy MVP candidate. I suppose it's possible. But it's going to take both some work and some luck for this to happen.
What's more likely is a little less pulling and little better BABIP luck and an average closer to the .270 range. If the ball remains juiced he's still the type of player that can take advantage of that and 30+ homers remains a possibility for a full season. If not, 20+. Not a bad player, but only a touch better than Markakis, who'd you'd expect to hit in the .280s but with less power, who'd he'd be replacing.
There's talent there for it to all come together and him to actually replace Donaldson in a meaningful way. There's history there to suggest it can happen too. That would be bad as the Braves have an edge on the Nats and a surprise MVP would likely seal the division for them. But there is more history and a more recent look at performance that both suggest that's a reach. Ozuna should help the Braves but it shouldn't be enough to put them out of reach.
Zimm is back! Healthy Zimm should hit. Is he healthy? Probably not! But it's good to have him back for a curtain call season.
*Except for you Jose Martinez!
For most the question is settled. He's an above average bat and a decent fielder. Solid power, little patience, enough skill to be a decent baserunner when he puts his mind to it. This has been a fair genearal description of Ozuna over the past few years. But what to make of 2017? Ozuna hit .312 that year and got some MVP votes. Was that just a fluke?
I think it kind of was but he might be able to repeat it. If you look at Ozuna's fancy stats he was remarkably consistent as a Marlin in the type of hits he got (LD/FB/GB), where he hit them (PULL/CF/OPPO) and how hard he hit them. What changed in 2017 was some BABIP luck and a bunch of homers going over the fence. The former took a dip in St. Louis, first back to normal and then what appears to be oddly low. But Ozuna became a straight pull hitter in St. Louis, so even though he was hitting the ball a lot harder, he could have been shifted out of several hits. There is thought that this change was because of his shoulder injury though, and a rehabbed and healthy Ozuna could go back to his old ways.
This sets up a scenario where Ozuna goes back to his all fields hitting and the ball remains juiced and the Braves have indeed found a fringy MVP candidate. I suppose it's possible. But it's going to take both some work and some luck for this to happen.
What's more likely is a little less pulling and little better BABIP luck and an average closer to the .270 range. If the ball remains juiced he's still the type of player that can take advantage of that and 30+ homers remains a possibility for a full season. If not, 20+. Not a bad player, but only a touch better than Markakis, who'd you'd expect to hit in the .280s but with less power, who'd he'd be replacing.
There's talent there for it to all come together and him to actually replace Donaldson in a meaningful way. There's history there to suggest it can happen too. That would be bad as the Braves have an edge on the Nats and a surprise MVP would likely seal the division for them. But there is more history and a more recent look at performance that both suggest that's a reach. Ozuna should help the Braves but it shouldn't be enough to put them out of reach.
Zimm is back! Healthy Zimm should hit. Is he healthy? Probably not! But it's good to have him back for a curtain call season.
*Except for you Jose Martinez!
Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Monday Quickie : NL East could be full of Arenado respect
Not really much going on in baseball now that we're down to musical chairs with those RH OFs. The Hall of Fame announcement is tonight. I did a piece a decade ago (REALLY? a DECADE? I'm so old) about the psychology behind voting and it mostly still stands though "Be really good for a really long time and hit those magic numbers" is being replaced by "Be really good for a really long time and hit sabrmetric targets". My feelings over time have moved firmly into the "whatever" group. This is a popularity contest and it's subjective (you don't ask for votes if you aren't looking for opinions) so vote however you want, call people stupid for voting how they want, and in general try to have fun with it. Nothing we do here changes what actually happened on the field. Harold Baines being in doesn't change the fact that there are like 50 offensive guys better than Harold Baines at baseball that aren't in. There are. They still exist.
My ballot Jeter, Rolen, maybe Sheffield (one of those better than Baines guys!). My gut wants to say Abreu for some reason. I can go either way on Clemens / Bonds. Fine with them in - they were great. Fine with them out - they were cheaters who are also terrible people (Bonds likely beat his wife, Clemens likely slept with a 15 year old).
Given Zimm's mid career injury killed any HOF chance for him, Nats fans now just sit and wait patiently for 5 years after Max retires and wonder if a plaque can capture two different colored eyes.
In non HOF news Nolan Arenado isn't happy. Nats could use him. Braves could use him. Phillies could use him. Mets could use him though they'd have to move some guys around. The Braves would be an ideal location but if they didn't want to commit to Donaldson for 4 years would they commit to Arenado for 7 for more money? Hard to see it even committing to Nolan for one "age year" less (36 for him vs 37 for Donaldson's demand). The Nats would love to but seem committed to Kieboom and hard to see the Rockies settling for just Carter and any more guts the Nats system and seems very un-Nats like, also cap issues. Phillies? Are they still around? I see him somewhere other than Colorado by the end of 2020 but I don't see him in the East right now. Mid-season might change that up once these teams who all hope they can just cruise to the playoffs and not have to commit much, (or miss the playoffs by a lot and not have to commit much) find themselves in a troublesome middle ground.
The Braves did bring in King Felix to kick the tires on him. Felix is not old - 34 in 2020, but he was bad last year and hasn't had even an ok season since 2016. While we generally think of successful guys as big K guys Felix wasn't really was that. He was a GB control master who never gave up the long ball and ate up tons of innings. From 2008-2014 his HR9 was 0.6 and 7 IP average. He was like Maddux more than anyone. But those skills are gone. He give up the flyballs now, the homers, and he's not compensating by walking fewer (he's walking more) or striking out more (he's striking out fewer). He's also not eating innings. This is a hail mary.
My ballot Jeter, Rolen, maybe Sheffield (one of those better than Baines guys!). My gut wants to say Abreu for some reason. I can go either way on Clemens / Bonds. Fine with them in - they were great. Fine with them out - they were cheaters who are also terrible people (Bonds likely beat his wife, Clemens likely slept with a 15 year old).
Given Zimm's mid career injury killed any HOF chance for him, Nats fans now just sit and wait patiently for 5 years after Max retires and wonder if a plaque can capture two different colored eyes.
In non HOF news Nolan Arenado isn't happy. Nats could use him. Braves could use him. Phillies could use him. Mets could use him though they'd have to move some guys around. The Braves would be an ideal location but if they didn't want to commit to Donaldson for 4 years would they commit to Arenado for 7 for more money? Hard to see it even committing to Nolan for one "age year" less (36 for him vs 37 for Donaldson's demand). The Nats would love to but seem committed to Kieboom and hard to see the Rockies settling for just Carter and any more guts the Nats system and seems very un-Nats like, also cap issues. Phillies? Are they still around? I see him somewhere other than Colorado by the end of 2020 but I don't see him in the East right now. Mid-season might change that up once these teams who all hope they can just cruise to the playoffs and not have to commit much, (or miss the playoffs by a lot and not have to commit much) find themselves in a troublesome middle ground.
The Braves did bring in King Felix to kick the tires on him. Felix is not old - 34 in 2020, but he was bad last year and hasn't had even an ok season since 2016. While we generally think of successful guys as big K guys Felix wasn't really was that. He was a GB control master who never gave up the long ball and ate up tons of innings. From 2008-2014 his HR9 was 0.6 and 7 IP average. He was like Maddux more than anyone. But those skills are gone. He give up the flyballs now, the homers, and he's not compensating by walking fewer (he's walking more) or striking out more (he's striking out fewer). He's also not eating innings. This is a hail mary.
Friday, January 17, 2020
Buzzkill
Who knows how the weekend will unfold. Yesterday Carlos Beltran was fired, Jessica Mendoza made a fool of herself with a "snitches get stitches" take and the internet descended into chaos as players, player's kids, and fake player relations all weighed in on the scandal. Everyone starts looking for more like scanning video and picutres for evidence of buzzers, jumping on anything because the Astros have no benefit of the doubt anymore.
As we dig deeper expect to find more. Every team tries to get an advantage and it's not like the Astros were the only team doing this. I don't say this to say any of this is ok. It's not. They know this type of watching monitors and signalling players is outside the scope of the game as desired. But that isn't going to stop some teams, especially knowing one team is succeeding doing it.
Could the Nats be cheats? Possibly! Any team can. Not hearing whispers from the local media is good, but unlike the bottles of sort of steroids sitting in lockers that the media just pretended they didn't see, the teams did seem to hide this from people outside the organization, so you can't rely on it. Better we haven't heard anything anecdotally yet.
Someone asked why the players are getting off scott-free. It's because they have to. Not only would it be very hard to figure out who did what, but then meting out the punishment would cause competitive imbalances over the course of the season. Do you catch the Astros without Correa and Bregman or without Reddick and Max Stassi? You do have this kind of random luck during the season but MLB shouldn't be creating it.
Is there more to come just from the Astros side? There are two coaches still hanging out with ties to the 2017 team, one in Toronto and one in Boston that will probably end up being let go I imagine. After that we'll have to see what shakes out. If nothing comes up soon, it's possible that MLB could put it's head down, hide behind the Super Bowl, and get to Spring.
As we dig deeper expect to find more. Every team tries to get an advantage and it's not like the Astros were the only team doing this. I don't say this to say any of this is ok. It's not. They know this type of watching monitors and signalling players is outside the scope of the game as desired. But that isn't going to stop some teams, especially knowing one team is succeeding doing it.
Could the Nats be cheats? Possibly! Any team can. Not hearing whispers from the local media is good, but unlike the bottles of sort of steroids sitting in lockers that the media just pretended they didn't see, the teams did seem to hide this from people outside the organization, so you can't rely on it. Better we haven't heard anything anecdotally yet.
Someone asked why the players are getting off scott-free. It's because they have to. Not only would it be very hard to figure out who did what, but then meting out the punishment would cause competitive imbalances over the course of the season. Do you catch the Astros without Correa and Bregman or without Reddick and Max Stassi? You do have this kind of random luck during the season but MLB shouldn't be creating it.
Is there more to come just from the Astros side? There are two coaches still hanging out with ties to the 2017 team, one in Toronto and one in Boston that will probably end up being let go I imagine. After that we'll have to see what shakes out. If nothing comes up soon, it's possible that MLB could put it's head down, hide behind the Super Bowl, and get to Spring.
Wednesday, January 15, 2020
Baseball news dump
Josh Donaldson is a Twin. 4/92 with a possible option putting it over 100 million. The first thing this means is Donaldson - a very good player, is not on the Braves anymore. That's good for the Nats! This would have made the Braves a clear favorite for the division. Instead they remain a minor one with a lot of solid players but lacking that one more big bat to complement Freeman and Acuna*. Will Albies step up? Austin Riley? Maybe but that's the same thing as guessing that Robles will. Right now they have no real weakness but nothing that can carry the team forward, and an offense that should be a little worse, matching the Nats own situation.
The second thing is Donaldson is not a Nat which means if the Nats really did have a 4/100 million deal out there as was told - that it was so heavily deferred to be comical. There doesn't seem to be an end to the Nats trying this game so expect to fall short on a good number of free agents. But as we've talked about before, this hasn't come back to bite them yet so why not keep moving forward with the plan? The still have enough talent to win and gaps that can be filled. Rendon is another big gap and we'll have to see if what they've done will work, but at this point, not really 8 seasons in because the first two didn't involve much front office work, but 6 seasons in of it working why doubt it?
Also yesterday the cheating scandal punishments came down and ultimately Hinch, Luhnow, and Cora were all let go. Cora was a Nat in 2011, right before the Nats got good, but there's like a dozen things in between then and now with a bunch of teams, plus a whole different Nats squad so I'm not worried about anything he may or may not have done in DC. Was it a fair punishment? I think so. Rules are rules, you know not to do that even if it's not explicitly spelled out. I think Hinch, with his anger but no action reaction to others doing this, ends up on a bench somewhere. I think Luhnow is done forever, because if we believe Hinch then either you have rogue coaches and players (doubtful) or direction from on high (sounds like the Astros to me), then he directed it and is lying now. Cora? I don't know. He was deep into it so it's a hard sell getting him back in.
Do I think other teams were trying or exploring similar things. I do. Success breeds imitation and it's just in the nature of the game. But I think these are the warning shots over the bow (taking out a few sailors) to say "cut it out".
Sadly all that's left in FA is the righty OF/DH shuffle between Ozuna (best OF), Castellanos (best bat), and Puig (most fun) of which the Nats and no one in the NL East should be a part of ** Yawn. I suppose the trade market is still there but I doubt that Arenado is coming to the NL East (it's either the Cardinals with their amassing of prospects or no one). Bryant is a more interesting case. The Braves should do a trade given their surplus of minor league talent. The Phillies should do a trade because they need one more big bat. The Nats should do a trade because the same. But likely no one will.
So we're probably where we are at for the season and I like the Braves and Nats to fight for the division and the WC with a slight edge to the Braves. Not a bad place to be with a WS title in pocket
*The Nats only had two big bats last year but the Nats also had three aces. The Braves do not have three aces.
**both the Phillies and Marlins could use an OF but a CF specifically. You aren't putting any of these guys in CF.
The second thing is Donaldson is not a Nat which means if the Nats really did have a 4/100 million deal out there as was told - that it was so heavily deferred to be comical. There doesn't seem to be an end to the Nats trying this game so expect to fall short on a good number of free agents. But as we've talked about before, this hasn't come back to bite them yet so why not keep moving forward with the plan? The still have enough talent to win and gaps that can be filled. Rendon is another big gap and we'll have to see if what they've done will work, but at this point, not really 8 seasons in because the first two didn't involve much front office work, but 6 seasons in of it working why doubt it?
Also yesterday the cheating scandal punishments came down and ultimately Hinch, Luhnow, and Cora were all let go. Cora was a Nat in 2011, right before the Nats got good, but there's like a dozen things in between then and now with a bunch of teams, plus a whole different Nats squad so I'm not worried about anything he may or may not have done in DC. Was it a fair punishment? I think so. Rules are rules, you know not to do that even if it's not explicitly spelled out. I think Hinch, with his anger but no action reaction to others doing this, ends up on a bench somewhere. I think Luhnow is done forever, because if we believe Hinch then either you have rogue coaches and players (doubtful) or direction from on high (sounds like the Astros to me), then he directed it and is lying now. Cora? I don't know. He was deep into it so it's a hard sell getting him back in.
Do I think other teams were trying or exploring similar things. I do. Success breeds imitation and it's just in the nature of the game. But I think these are the warning shots over the bow (taking out a few sailors) to say "cut it out".
Sadly all that's left in FA is the righty OF/DH shuffle between Ozuna (best OF), Castellanos (best bat), and Puig (most fun) of which the Nats and no one in the NL East should be a part of ** Yawn. I suppose the trade market is still there but I doubt that Arenado is coming to the NL East (it's either the Cardinals with their amassing of prospects or no one). Bryant is a more interesting case. The Braves should do a trade given their surplus of minor league talent. The Phillies should do a trade because they need one more big bat. The Nats should do a trade because the same. But likely no one will.
So we're probably where we are at for the season and I like the Braves and Nats to fight for the division and the WC with a slight edge to the Braves. Not a bad place to be with a WS title in pocket
*The Nats only had two big bats last year but the Nats also had three aces. The Braves do not have three aces.
**both the Phillies and Marlins could use an OF but a CF specifically. You aren't putting any of these guys in CF.
Monday, January 13, 2020
Monday Quickie : No Donaldson
Fun fact reading the Carter Kieboom articles - just because you play a position doesn't make you a "natural". Kieboom has played a bunch of short. But he's not better than Trea. Trea is good, but Trea isn't special. So that means Carter is maybe ok? Rizzo admitted last year Kieboom was a bat first guy. It's ok to admit while he CAN play SS maybe he shouldn't or at least you shouldn't plan this for the future? I know I'm nitpicking here but if you say a guy is a "natural shortstop" then I think "oh he can easily play 2B or 3B" as opposed to if you say "he's played SS most of his minor league career" which is a lot less committal on his defensive skills. Basically he should be fine, even good, at 2B or 3B eventually but he not might be. It's still up in the air.
Which is important because Kieboom is now part of Plan A. Basically confirming any hope of getting Donaldson is over, Rizzo pushed Kieboom and the recent moves as easily good enough to cover the infield holes. And it might be. You are almost certainly not going to replace 2019 Rendon. But can the Nats get like 80% of it? He's the idea on how that happens with my percent chances attached.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a great season (10%). He was amazing to end the year but has bounced all over the place mainly being around average for full seasons. At 34+ he may have a good full year left but he's probably more likely to crash. His defense was solid last year but in part that's him degrading down the defensive ladder. The former SS aged out of that position, then aged out of 2B.
Carter Kieboom breaks out. (15%) All minor league signs suggest Kieboom will hit at an acceptable level in the majors but there's also not an overwhelming track record of dominance. His best partial season was probably a .296 / .400 / .497 line in Single A back in 2017 which is good but it wouldn't make you excited if he wasn't 19/20 at the time. His short stint last year was so bad that it seems unlikely he'll impress on offense or defense. But again he's young so you are hoping he grows into the role. With that out there I can't expect more from him than say Robles who just three months older than Carter was putting up a basically the same line you see there but in AA in 2017. So I'm hoping for average this year and will be happy if I see that. Better than that will probably have to wait.
Starlin Casto has a great season (25%). Boz points out his great half year but I am more interested in a couple seasons that he was almost there and him being a good 4 years younger than Asdrubal. I don't think there's a star turn at 29/30 here but can he put it together for one year? Give the Nats something like .300 with 25 homers? (He doesn't walk). Plus he aged out of SS but he's still a good 2b meaning he could be a very good 3B. Get all that for one year and you might just give enough to, not replace, but cover for Rendon
Davey works platoon magic (5%). The splits aren't there to suggest this is a thing. Mainly it'd be more luck on getting someone's hot stretch then lucking into another one. Maybe having D not really matter all that much based on balls hit to 3B. It can happen but don't rely on it.
Now this isn't cumulative. You can't look at the above and say there is a 2/3 chance of replacing Rendon. If you start with say As Cab and he's not good for two months, well there's your chance at doing it, even if Castro comes in and give you what we say. 4 months of the above won't cover for Rendon. It'd have to be a - you get good AsCab then he gets hurt or something then you get good Castro. That's more like 5% chance.
How you should read the above is the likelihood things work out for the Nats given their OD choice. Maybe pump it up 5-10 based on things like I described above, a string of moves that happen to work. But I figure best case is 1/3rd chance and they can flub it up to be under 10% if say they start with a platoon idea. That doesn't mean the Nats will have a bad 3B situation, just that they won't come close to replacing Rendon. The most likely scenario in fact is that it's ok to start and just stays ok and you feel the loss of Rendon but it isn't terrible.
The Nats made this bed. Now they have to lie in it (and for the next 4+ months tell us how comfortable they think it is)
Which is important because Kieboom is now part of Plan A. Basically confirming any hope of getting Donaldson is over, Rizzo pushed Kieboom and the recent moves as easily good enough to cover the infield holes. And it might be. You are almost certainly not going to replace 2019 Rendon. But can the Nats get like 80% of it? He's the idea on how that happens with my percent chances attached.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a great season (10%). He was amazing to end the year but has bounced all over the place mainly being around average for full seasons. At 34+ he may have a good full year left but he's probably more likely to crash. His defense was solid last year but in part that's him degrading down the defensive ladder. The former SS aged out of that position, then aged out of 2B.
Carter Kieboom breaks out. (15%) All minor league signs suggest Kieboom will hit at an acceptable level in the majors but there's also not an overwhelming track record of dominance. His best partial season was probably a .296 / .400 / .497 line in Single A back in 2017 which is good but it wouldn't make you excited if he wasn't 19/20 at the time. His short stint last year was so bad that it seems unlikely he'll impress on offense or defense. But again he's young so you are hoping he grows into the role. With that out there I can't expect more from him than say Robles who just three months older than Carter was putting up a basically the same line you see there but in AA in 2017. So I'm hoping for average this year and will be happy if I see that. Better than that will probably have to wait.
Starlin Casto has a great season (25%). Boz points out his great half year but I am more interested in a couple seasons that he was almost there and him being a good 4 years younger than Asdrubal. I don't think there's a star turn at 29/30 here but can he put it together for one year? Give the Nats something like .300 with 25 homers? (He doesn't walk). Plus he aged out of SS but he's still a good 2b meaning he could be a very good 3B. Get all that for one year and you might just give enough to, not replace, but cover for Rendon
Davey works platoon magic (5%). The splits aren't there to suggest this is a thing. Mainly it'd be more luck on getting someone's hot stretch then lucking into another one. Maybe having D not really matter all that much based on balls hit to 3B. It can happen but don't rely on it.
Now this isn't cumulative. You can't look at the above and say there is a 2/3 chance of replacing Rendon. If you start with say As Cab and he's not good for two months, well there's your chance at doing it, even if Castro comes in and give you what we say. 4 months of the above won't cover for Rendon. It'd have to be a - you get good AsCab then he gets hurt or something then you get good Castro. That's more like 5% chance.
How you should read the above is the likelihood things work out for the Nats given their OD choice. Maybe pump it up 5-10 based on things like I described above, a string of moves that happen to work. But I figure best case is 1/3rd chance and they can flub it up to be under 10% if say they start with a platoon idea. That doesn't mean the Nats will have a bad 3B situation, just that they won't come close to replacing Rendon. The most likely scenario in fact is that it's ok to start and just stays ok and you feel the loss of Rendon but it isn't terrible.
The Nats made this bed. Now they have to lie in it (and for the next 4+ months tell us how comfortable they think it is)
Friday, January 10, 2020
Lucky or Unlucky : 2019
Last couple of years I did this but it felt a little out of place at the end during a WS celebration, when saying something like "I don't think Strasburg had the best postseason ever" got me crushed by Nats fans. With some time between then and now and the bad taste of losing Rendon setting the palates a little back to normal, let's go over what went right (and wrong) for the Nats in 2019 that had nothing to do with skill. (regular season only - playoffs is too short really to fit in here)
UNLUCKY
Zimm gets hurt real bad, can't hit and Adams hits a wall. The idea that Zimm would miss time to injury is a given. You peg him for 100 games and hope he gets there. But this year Zimm barely hit half of that (52) and didn't hit even average which he managed to do in most years despite injury. Matt Adams was replacement number one, kept on the team after a good 2018, but he too dropped below average leaving the Nats with a hole at first. Add to the fact neither could field and the Nats had a terrible 1B situation until they defaulted to Howie+
Rosenthal is a disaster The Nats bet a lot on Rosenthal expecting him to either be good and get them a top notch reliever or be bad and just taken as a sunk cost eating up the last spot in the pen. They weren't prepared though for Rosenthal to be completely unusable and one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball in 2019. Sportin a deserved 22.74 ERA Rosenthal was given a couple chances to come back and never did leaving a hole in the Nats bullpen. This was made worse by...
Bullpen pieces take a step back Bullpens are variable things. With a usual mix of inexperienced arms and arms with maybe too much experience pitching minimal innings, you get results bouncing all around the place. Spread this out among 32 teams and you'll get a couple teams get more than their fair share of luck and a couple teams that do not. Guess where the Nats were. Matt Grace, a found piece in 2018 expected to step up, was terrible. Kyle Barraclough, signed aiming for an innings eatings decent arm, was terrible. Doolittle, hurt for much of the year, wasn't sharp. The resulting issues caused a baby with the bathwater situation where the Nats released some guys that might have helped like Sipp and Miller for the sake of starting over. Meanwhile no one stepped up.
Hellickson 5th starter is a no-go You can't expect 30 starts from Hellickson, but you do expect more than 8 and a 6.23 ERA. This arm was going to go sometime, just like it did in 2017 but the Nats didn't have to catch this. They did
7-13 early in close games. Some teams have things not go their way early, which has more impact than late just because it sets up your moves and mindset for the rest of the year. In 1 and 2 run games the Nats were getting crushed and they found themselves in a spot heading into late May where if things didn't turn around soon and consistently they'd have to come up with a new plan.
LUCKY
Howie's best year ever. We kind of think "Howie can hit. Last year was just him being him." No way. Last year was a career high in batting average 30 points over anything recent and 50 over his career average. It was his career high in homers and he posted a isoSLG of .228 easily besting his previous career high of .179 back when he was 27. The guy had been consistently an above average hitter. Last year he put up no-brainer All-Star numbers.
Rendon becomes RENDON. Ok this isn't a big time luck swing but you can't say this is expected because in 6 previous years including the last two pretty healthy ones, Anthony never put up anything like this year. Career highs in BA, homers (by 9), tied for career high in doubles, nearly a career high in walks (4 off). This was the year he put it all together. Is it a sign of a step up or just that one special season? Not the Nats problem anymore and honestly the Angels will probably be happy if he puts up a bunch of years like 2017-18 if it's the latter.
Nearly perfect OF health. Every team gets injuries but the Nats, with a little older team and some injury risks are probably a little more prone to them than other teams. The Nats did have a decent Plan B for the OF in Howie, but once 1B became a debacle they needed him there leaving it important that no OF miss major time, espeically Robles whose defense allows Soto and Eaton to stay in the corners. Soto 150 games, Eaton 151 games, Robles 155 games.
Nearly perfect SP health. Max had his issues at the year end but the big 4 started something like 93% of the games they would given perfect health. Most importantly given Max's short miss time, Strasburg, who seems to miss a month every season, didn't in 2019. As the rotation gets older this is harder to keep up but as long as it does the Nats have a chance.
Super subs You bring in guys and hope they can fill spots. If they are better than expected that's a nice bonus. Hudson put up a 1.44 ERA with some LOB luck and nailed down the bullpen. Asdrubal Cabrera put up a .323 / .404 /.565 line that he'd never be able to do over a season Both these guys were integral to getting the Nats keeping their WC lead and getting into the playoffs.
Things turned around soon and consistently. After the bad start the Nats would go like 36-15 to immediately put themselves back in it by the trade deadline. If they had stumbled at all during this time - like the 3-7 stretch right at this point or the 6-10 run near the end of the year - the Nats are around .500 and might be looking to pack it in.
AS EXPECTED
Gomes/Suzuki platoon, Dozier, Turner, Soto, Robles Eaton all hit reasonable expectations. There were flirtations with major issues at C, 2B, and CF but all held that off. Soto being Soto again rather than taking a clear step back was key to keeping the line-up dangerous enough.
Strasburg, Corbin, Max all pitched like aces. That's why they make the big bucks and until they give you reason to doubt them you expect this.
Sanchez didn't waver. And this is why he got paid what he did.
Nats luck in games evened out in general. The Nats had lousy luck in 1-run games, but in 3 run games were almost unbeatable. Yeah I know 1 run games are closer to .500 splits and good teams make their living in the 3-8 range. Still 22-6 in three run games is out of whack. Basically over the course of the year things evened out and the talent than was mostly healthy was able to shine enough to get them into the playoffs.
As in any good year for any team, the Nats were luckier than unlucky.* Howie's career year countered the 1B failings. The nearly perfect SP health (and talent that the Nats put there) and Hudson's miracle stint countered the 5th starter issues and failures of the pen when it mattered. Rendon's MVP worthy season, the OF health, As Cab's stint along with some timely Parra hits when he first arrived, gave the Nats an extra offensive boost needed after luck swung against them early. It wasn't a big swing in their favor but it was enough.
*basic truth is that with 5 teams in direction competiton, and 10 more sort of, a couple teams are going to get really lucky, a couple more sort of lucky, etc. etc. Because some other good team will get lucky it's hard for a good team, unless set up to be REALLY good, to get a little unlucky and still make it through. You need luck.
UNLUCKY
Zimm gets hurt real bad, can't hit and Adams hits a wall. The idea that Zimm would miss time to injury is a given. You peg him for 100 games and hope he gets there. But this year Zimm barely hit half of that (52) and didn't hit even average which he managed to do in most years despite injury. Matt Adams was replacement number one, kept on the team after a good 2018, but he too dropped below average leaving the Nats with a hole at first. Add to the fact neither could field and the Nats had a terrible 1B situation until they defaulted to Howie+
Rosenthal is a disaster The Nats bet a lot on Rosenthal expecting him to either be good and get them a top notch reliever or be bad and just taken as a sunk cost eating up the last spot in the pen. They weren't prepared though for Rosenthal to be completely unusable and one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball in 2019. Sportin a deserved 22.74 ERA Rosenthal was given a couple chances to come back and never did leaving a hole in the Nats bullpen. This was made worse by...
Bullpen pieces take a step back Bullpens are variable things. With a usual mix of inexperienced arms and arms with maybe too much experience pitching minimal innings, you get results bouncing all around the place. Spread this out among 32 teams and you'll get a couple teams get more than their fair share of luck and a couple teams that do not. Guess where the Nats were. Matt Grace, a found piece in 2018 expected to step up, was terrible. Kyle Barraclough, signed aiming for an innings eatings decent arm, was terrible. Doolittle, hurt for much of the year, wasn't sharp. The resulting issues caused a baby with the bathwater situation where the Nats released some guys that might have helped like Sipp and Miller for the sake of starting over. Meanwhile no one stepped up.
Hellickson 5th starter is a no-go You can't expect 30 starts from Hellickson, but you do expect more than 8 and a 6.23 ERA. This arm was going to go sometime, just like it did in 2017 but the Nats didn't have to catch this. They did
7-13 early in close games. Some teams have things not go their way early, which has more impact than late just because it sets up your moves and mindset for the rest of the year. In 1 and 2 run games the Nats were getting crushed and they found themselves in a spot heading into late May where if things didn't turn around soon and consistently they'd have to come up with a new plan.
LUCKY
Howie's best year ever. We kind of think "Howie can hit. Last year was just him being him." No way. Last year was a career high in batting average 30 points over anything recent and 50 over his career average. It was his career high in homers and he posted a isoSLG of .228 easily besting his previous career high of .179 back when he was 27. The guy had been consistently an above average hitter. Last year he put up no-brainer All-Star numbers.
Rendon becomes RENDON. Ok this isn't a big time luck swing but you can't say this is expected because in 6 previous years including the last two pretty healthy ones, Anthony never put up anything like this year. Career highs in BA, homers (by 9), tied for career high in doubles, nearly a career high in walks (4 off). This was the year he put it all together. Is it a sign of a step up or just that one special season? Not the Nats problem anymore and honestly the Angels will probably be happy if he puts up a bunch of years like 2017-18 if it's the latter.
Nearly perfect OF health. Every team gets injuries but the Nats, with a little older team and some injury risks are probably a little more prone to them than other teams. The Nats did have a decent Plan B for the OF in Howie, but once 1B became a debacle they needed him there leaving it important that no OF miss major time, espeically Robles whose defense allows Soto and Eaton to stay in the corners. Soto 150 games, Eaton 151 games, Robles 155 games.
Nearly perfect SP health. Max had his issues at the year end but the big 4 started something like 93% of the games they would given perfect health. Most importantly given Max's short miss time, Strasburg, who seems to miss a month every season, didn't in 2019. As the rotation gets older this is harder to keep up but as long as it does the Nats have a chance.
Super subs You bring in guys and hope they can fill spots. If they are better than expected that's a nice bonus. Hudson put up a 1.44 ERA with some LOB luck and nailed down the bullpen. Asdrubal Cabrera put up a .323 / .404 /.565 line that he'd never be able to do over a season Both these guys were integral to getting the Nats keeping their WC lead and getting into the playoffs.
Things turned around soon and consistently. After the bad start the Nats would go like 36-15 to immediately put themselves back in it by the trade deadline. If they had stumbled at all during this time - like the 3-7 stretch right at this point or the 6-10 run near the end of the year - the Nats are around .500 and might be looking to pack it in.
AS EXPECTED
Gomes/Suzuki platoon, Dozier, Turner, Soto, Robles Eaton all hit reasonable expectations. There were flirtations with major issues at C, 2B, and CF but all held that off. Soto being Soto again rather than taking a clear step back was key to keeping the line-up dangerous enough.
Strasburg, Corbin, Max all pitched like aces. That's why they make the big bucks and until they give you reason to doubt them you expect this.
Sanchez didn't waver. And this is why he got paid what he did.
Nats luck in games evened out in general. The Nats had lousy luck in 1-run games, but in 3 run games were almost unbeatable. Yeah I know 1 run games are closer to .500 splits and good teams make their living in the 3-8 range. Still 22-6 in three run games is out of whack. Basically over the course of the year things evened out and the talent than was mostly healthy was able to shine enough to get them into the playoffs.
As in any good year for any team, the Nats were luckier than unlucky.* Howie's career year countered the 1B failings. The nearly perfect SP health (and talent that the Nats put there) and Hudson's miracle stint countered the 5th starter issues and failures of the pen when it mattered. Rendon's MVP worthy season, the OF health, As Cab's stint along with some timely Parra hits when he first arrived, gave the Nats an extra offensive boost needed after luck swung against them early. It wasn't a big swing in their favor but it was enough.
*basic truth is that with 5 teams in direction competiton, and 10 more sort of, a couple teams are going to get really lucky, a couple more sort of lucky, etc. etc. Because some other good team will get lucky it's hard for a good team, unless set up to be REALLY good, to get a little unlucky and still make it through. You need luck.
Tuesday, January 07, 2020
Hudson's back - so no Donaldson?
The Nats have officially brought back Daniel Hudson. It was clear that Hudson wanted a longer deal, but it's now clear that no one wanted to give him one. So two years 11 million and he's back in the Nats pen where he thrived in the back half of 2019.
Personally I don't believe this sets the Nats pen or makes it "imposing". This is a less impressive trio than Doo, Hudson, Kintzler and we all know how that worked out. Is it reasonably contructed? Yes! and Nats pens aren't always so. Could it be great? Sure. I mean any reasonably constructed pen can - look at the Nats in 2016. Could it be below average? Yep. That too. I wouldn't bet on it but I wouldn't be surprised either. When I'd be surprised though is if this pen was bad.
In short : I think the bullpen should be expected to be above average but there's a lot of variability in pens.
How do I feel about the Hudson deal in general... I kind of don't love it. He wasn't all that good in 2018 or 2017 or 2016. He was merely ok in 2019 before joining the Nats. His arm is injury prone, he missed time as recently as 2018 and last years 83 IP were the most innings he's thrown since 2011. We're talking Obama's first term here, Miley Cyrus was still Hannah Montana! His 2019 was helped by an unrepeatable LOB% (81.8) and a HR/FB rate not likely to be repeated (8.6%). Somehow this happened while giving up fewer GBs and more hard hit balls. Basically remember that Dodgers catcher almost hitting it out? That was Daniel Hudson in a nutshell last year. Can he repeat getting guys to almost hit it out? I doubt it
It doesn't mean he can't be a useful bullpen piece, but for about a million more you could have signed Clippard and Stammen and gotten two useful pieces, with less injury risk.
Still it's hard to fault the Nats for doing something where they usually do nothing. This is a big improvement over the option of whoever would fill the last spot in the pen that now gets bumped out. The real problem is though that the Nats now seem out of the running for Donaldson. They say the contract is still out there and I believe them, in part because I think the deferments make them money to cover the cap hit. But it's hard to see him coming to a team paying him less when the other offers are also from contending teams.
The Nats had a very good offense last year but a big chunk of that was Rendon. Losing him hurts. There's also the fact that Kendrick had a career year that he's unlikely to repeat. Eaton's trending wrong as is Suzuki. The Nats have some decent options out there in Thames and Castro but all these guys are more likely to be average than good. Can Turner step up? I don't know he's been playing long enough to kind of accept he's a good but not great bat. Can Robles? Possibly - he is young. But I'm not enthused by what I saw last year. Maybe average. Can Soto? I think he can get even better... if they are bothering to pitch to him. I don't think it'll be a bad offense if they don't replace Rendon with Donaldson (or someone in trade) but it'll be one that's likely to be around average, meaning the pitching has to be great to compensate.
And the pitching can be great. It has been. It's got three aces and a pen that should be good. But that's a lot of pressure on a rotation that features a lot of age and went through a lot of wear and tear last year.
Personally I don't believe this sets the Nats pen or makes it "imposing". This is a less impressive trio than Doo, Hudson, Kintzler and we all know how that worked out. Is it reasonably contructed? Yes! and Nats pens aren't always so. Could it be great? Sure. I mean any reasonably constructed pen can - look at the Nats in 2016. Could it be below average? Yep. That too. I wouldn't bet on it but I wouldn't be surprised either. When I'd be surprised though is if this pen was bad.
In short : I think the bullpen should be expected to be above average but there's a lot of variability in pens.
How do I feel about the Hudson deal in general... I kind of don't love it. He wasn't all that good in 2018 or 2017 or 2016. He was merely ok in 2019 before joining the Nats. His arm is injury prone, he missed time as recently as 2018 and last years 83 IP were the most innings he's thrown since 2011. We're talking Obama's first term here, Miley Cyrus was still Hannah Montana! His 2019 was helped by an unrepeatable LOB% (81.8) and a HR/FB rate not likely to be repeated (8.6%). Somehow this happened while giving up fewer GBs and more hard hit balls. Basically remember that Dodgers catcher almost hitting it out? That was Daniel Hudson in a nutshell last year. Can he repeat getting guys to almost hit it out? I doubt it
It doesn't mean he can't be a useful bullpen piece, but for about a million more you could have signed Clippard and Stammen and gotten two useful pieces, with less injury risk.
Still it's hard to fault the Nats for doing something where they usually do nothing. This is a big improvement over the option of whoever would fill the last spot in the pen that now gets bumped out. The real problem is though that the Nats now seem out of the running for Donaldson. They say the contract is still out there and I believe them, in part because I think the deferments make them money to cover the cap hit. But it's hard to see him coming to a team paying him less when the other offers are also from contending teams.
The Nats had a very good offense last year but a big chunk of that was Rendon. Losing him hurts. There's also the fact that Kendrick had a career year that he's unlikely to repeat. Eaton's trending wrong as is Suzuki. The Nats have some decent options out there in Thames and Castro but all these guys are more likely to be average than good. Can Turner step up? I don't know he's been playing long enough to kind of accept he's a good but not great bat. Can Robles? Possibly - he is young. But I'm not enthused by what I saw last year. Maybe average. Can Soto? I think he can get even better... if they are bothering to pitch to him. I don't think it'll be a bad offense if they don't replace Rendon with Donaldson (or someone in trade) but it'll be one that's likely to be around average, meaning the pitching has to be great to compensate.
And the pitching can be great. It has been. It's got three aces and a pen that should be good. But that's a lot of pressure on a rotation that features a lot of age and went through a lot of wear and tear last year.
Monday, January 06, 2020
Monday Quickie - Lots of stuff
Remember last week when I noted nothing happened when we were gone? Well now stuff happened - a lot of stuff! Over the weekend the Nats signed both AsCab and Starlin Castro. The question is... what does this mean?
Option 1 : They hate Kieboom. This sets up 2B and the backup MI as they try to bring in Donaldson.
Option 2 : They trade Kieboom. This sets up 2B and the backup MI as they try to trade for maybe Kris Bryant.
Option 3 : They are out of the 3B market. This sets up 3B and the backup MI as they get ready to give Kieboom his long trial
Take your pick. To me #1 is the least likely. Donaldson has seemingly set his asking price (like 4/110) and also presumably has a better deal on the table from the Twins than the Nats. Sure maybe "defending champs" speaks to him and he'll take whatever deferred heavy deal the Nats have out there, but if it wasn't about money he could have done that already.
#2 is more possible. Yes Byant will be a FA in a couple seasons, but he's also in that underpaid control period of this contract making him a value.
#3 is also possible though then you'd have to wonder what happens to the money the Nats would have, but didn't spend, as there aren't a lot of options out there on where to place it and "the Lerners bank account" is the one we want to see the least.
How are these guys? I like Castro. He likes to play especially for winning teams. He's ok! Probably a little better than he was last year. Boz seems to think his 2nd half could portend a break out. Oddly enough he doesn't say that for AsCab who had an equally crazy August and September. We know him. He is also ok. But older. And at times it looked like the Nats were lucky to get what they got because what were you swinging at Asdrubal?
My take is that this is a fine platoon or starter/back-up situation for the 7th or 8th man in your line-up. You can get an average player from these two and for about 8-9 million that's a good deal. Much like Will Harris though these are the finishing touches around picking up someone to replace Rendon... or honestly to replace like 80% of Rendon. If they get that - all is well - successful off-season, time to defend. If they don't then this team is a step back from last year and while that probably means a similar end spot for the Nats (comfortably in the WC discussion with around 90 wins) it's not where they could have or should have been, imo. But let's see
Option 1 : They hate Kieboom. This sets up 2B and the backup MI as they try to bring in Donaldson.
Option 2 : They trade Kieboom. This sets up 2B and the backup MI as they try to trade for maybe Kris Bryant.
Option 3 : They are out of the 3B market. This sets up 3B and the backup MI as they get ready to give Kieboom his long trial
Take your pick. To me #1 is the least likely. Donaldson has seemingly set his asking price (like 4/110) and also presumably has a better deal on the table from the Twins than the Nats. Sure maybe "defending champs" speaks to him and he'll take whatever deferred heavy deal the Nats have out there, but if it wasn't about money he could have done that already.
#2 is more possible. Yes Byant will be a FA in a couple seasons, but he's also in that underpaid control period of this contract making him a value.
#3 is also possible though then you'd have to wonder what happens to the money the Nats would have, but didn't spend, as there aren't a lot of options out there on where to place it and "the Lerners bank account" is the one we want to see the least.
How are these guys? I like Castro. He likes to play especially for winning teams. He's ok! Probably a little better than he was last year. Boz seems to think his 2nd half could portend a break out. Oddly enough he doesn't say that for AsCab who had an equally crazy August and September. We know him. He is also ok. But older. And at times it looked like the Nats were lucky to get what they got because what were you swinging at Asdrubal?
My take is that this is a fine platoon or starter/back-up situation for the 7th or 8th man in your line-up. You can get an average player from these two and for about 8-9 million that's a good deal. Much like Will Harris though these are the finishing touches around picking up someone to replace Rendon... or honestly to replace like 80% of Rendon. If they get that - all is well - successful off-season, time to defend. If they don't then this team is a step back from last year and while that probably means a similar end spot for the Nats (comfortably in the WC discussion with around 90 wins) it's not where they could have or should have been, imo. But let's see
Friday, January 03, 2020
Will Harris is good. Will Harris be good?
The Nats made a move to shore up the pen which by the end of the season was Doolittle, Hudson, and that's it. Hudson wanted to come back but the Nats were reluctant to bet more than two years on his oft-injured usually not too good arm. Instead they went with Will Harris who you may remember from such pitches as the one to Howie Kendrick that he hit for a home run in game 7. Harris was probably the second best reliever available in free agency* and the Nats gave him a contract that looks today to be on market. Three years / 24 million. So a good deal or not?
Why it may be a good deal:
Harris has been nothing if not consistent. Since breaking out late in life (28) for the D-backs in 2013, Will has put together an annual performance that I'd call just short of dominance. (His ERA doesn't reflect his performance as happens at times with relievers - he is more of a 2.50 - 3.00 ERA guy) He does everything you want a pitcher to do - keeps guys off base with low hit rate and low walk rates, strikes out a bunch, doesn't give up a lot of homeruns. Nothing is special - even the combination of all of them - but while a lot of those special guys flash briefly then go out, he's right there as one of the best relievers of the past 5+ years.
He's also been healthy appearing in 60+ games in 4 of the last 5 years and the other year appearing in 46. It's really hard to fault this as a move for 2020, and if you are looking "beyond Doolittle" he could easily slip into that same "not dominant but very good and will get the job done" role in 2021
Why it may not be a good deal:
Harris was the 2nd best reliever on the market because of his age. He's 35, and will turn 36 during next season. Take that for what it is. There was a drop in his K rate despite a league wide increase in Ks and fancy stat digging shows fewer chases, swings and misses, and more overall contact. That worked out in 2019 as that contact seemed to turn into GBs but Harris isn't consistently an overwhelming GB pitcher and those numbers coupled with a less dominant GB/FB split like 2015 or 2017 may spell trouble.
While a key piece to the playoff runs of the Astros in previous years, this year they really leaned on him more, 10 IP pitched in the playoffs in 12 appearances, compared to previous highs of 4 IP in 6 appearances in 2017. That marks his most work in a season outside of 2015. That didn't seem to bother him then, but he was also 30, not 34 carrying 4 more years of wear and tear.
My thoughts :
It's a necessary and good deal and I'm glad the Nats made it. There is a very good chance Harris is good next year and worth the money he's being paid, even if he slightly regresses. There is a chance at his age of a sharp and quick decline but the Nats are playing a "win now" game** using veterans to supplement an older rotation that's still performing at a high level. This fits in with that plan. Where does it leave the Nats in year 3? Worry about that in year 2.
*to Will Smith who signed with the Braves. You maybe could argue Betances (Mets) is better on talent but he's been hurt so much.
** by that I mean going with older talent, not spending a ton of money. It's the Nats
Why it may be a good deal:
Harris has been nothing if not consistent. Since breaking out late in life (28) for the D-backs in 2013, Will has put together an annual performance that I'd call just short of dominance. (His ERA doesn't reflect his performance as happens at times with relievers - he is more of a 2.50 - 3.00 ERA guy) He does everything you want a pitcher to do - keeps guys off base with low hit rate and low walk rates, strikes out a bunch, doesn't give up a lot of homeruns. Nothing is special - even the combination of all of them - but while a lot of those special guys flash briefly then go out, he's right there as one of the best relievers of the past 5+ years.
He's also been healthy appearing in 60+ games in 4 of the last 5 years and the other year appearing in 46. It's really hard to fault this as a move for 2020, and if you are looking "beyond Doolittle" he could easily slip into that same "not dominant but very good and will get the job done" role in 2021
Why it may not be a good deal:
Harris was the 2nd best reliever on the market because of his age. He's 35, and will turn 36 during next season. Take that for what it is. There was a drop in his K rate despite a league wide increase in Ks and fancy stat digging shows fewer chases, swings and misses, and more overall contact. That worked out in 2019 as that contact seemed to turn into GBs but Harris isn't consistently an overwhelming GB pitcher and those numbers coupled with a less dominant GB/FB split like 2015 or 2017 may spell trouble.
While a key piece to the playoff runs of the Astros in previous years, this year they really leaned on him more, 10 IP pitched in the playoffs in 12 appearances, compared to previous highs of 4 IP in 6 appearances in 2017. That marks his most work in a season outside of 2015. That didn't seem to bother him then, but he was also 30, not 34 carrying 4 more years of wear and tear.
My thoughts :
It's a necessary and good deal and I'm glad the Nats made it. There is a very good chance Harris is good next year and worth the money he's being paid, even if he slightly regresses. There is a chance at his age of a sharp and quick decline but the Nats are playing a "win now" game** using veterans to supplement an older rotation that's still performing at a high level. This fits in with that plan. Where does it leave the Nats in year 3? Worry about that in year 2.
*to Will Smith who signed with the Braves. You maybe could argue Betances (Mets) is better on talent but he's been hurt so much.
** by that I mean going with older talent, not spending a ton of money. It's the Nats
Thursday, January 02, 2020
Some number of days until pitchers and catchers
You are all elementary school graduates. you can figure out the number yourself.
Ok so I took the holiday season off and let's see what I missed - all the Nats transactions from Dec 17th until now...
If you must know, Mario Sanchez, not to be confused with America's Latin Sweetheart, Mario Lopez, was in the Nats system last year. He had a decent quick early stint in Harrisburg, was pushed up to AAA and got hammered, then spent the rest of the year in AA. At 25, he's basically org filler.
What happened in the NL East?
Braves did nothing other than anger a fanbase waiting for them to do something else.
Mets, who had just signed Rick Porcello on the 16th giving them the deepest (though not best) rotation in the East if they choose to keep Wacha a starter, signed Dellin Betances. If he's healthy it should be a really good move for the pen. Of course Diaz should have been a great move and look how that turned out.
Phillies, signed a bunch of garbage to minor league deals. The only one I care about is Josh Harrison, who was a decent major leaguer before last year.
What happened in the rest of the majors?
Ok the big moves were
Donaldson seems to have a four year offer out there from the Twins and a "four"* year offer out there from the Nats as well. Still unsigned but you have to think 4 years is what he was looking for so I'd imagine he'll take that Twins offer soon if the Braves or someone else don't counter it. After that the dominoes may fall in a trade direction with both Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado rumored. My guess is Bryant has a real chance to be dealt while Arenado is out there only to see what kind of haul they can get back. Everyone is always on the table.
Caught up?
Basically we're where we were when we left off. Nats looking to secure 3B with Donaldson and if not, then moving to relief help (evne though they could really use, and afford to, do both) neither situation is off the table yet.
*oh as if it doesn't have significant deferred money
Ok so I took the holiday season off and let's see what I missed - all the Nats transactions from Dec 17th until now...
- 12/18/19 Washington Nationals signed free agent RHP Mario Sanchez to a minor league contract.
If you must know, Mario Sanchez, not to be confused with America's Latin Sweetheart, Mario Lopez, was in the Nats system last year. He had a decent quick early stint in Harrisburg, was pushed up to AAA and got hammered, then spent the rest of the year in AA. At 25, he's basically org filler.
What happened in the NL East?
Braves did nothing other than anger a fanbase waiting for them to do something else.
Mets, who had just signed Rick Porcello on the 16th giving them the deepest (though not best) rotation in the East if they choose to keep Wacha a starter, signed Dellin Betances. If he's healthy it should be a really good move for the pen. Of course Diaz should have been a great move and look how that turned out.
Phillies, signed a bunch of garbage to minor league deals. The only one I care about is Josh Harrison, who was a decent major leaguer before last year.
What happened in the rest of the majors?
Ok the big moves were
- Bumgarner, Calhoun to the D-backs
- Avisail Garcia, Eric Sogard, and Justin Smoak to the Brewers
- Wade Miley to the Reds
- Tanner Roark, Hyun-Jin Ryu to the Blue Jays
- Gerrit Cole to the Yankees
- Gio, Kuechel to the White Sox
- Clippard, Romo, Hill, Bailey to the Twins
- Teheran to the Rangers
- CJ Cron and John Schoop to the Tigers
- Martin Maldanado to the Astros
- Maikel Franco to the Royals
Donaldson seems to have a four year offer out there from the Twins and a "four"* year offer out there from the Nats as well. Still unsigned but you have to think 4 years is what he was looking for so I'd imagine he'll take that Twins offer soon if the Braves or someone else don't counter it. After that the dominoes may fall in a trade direction with both Kris Bryant and Nolan Arenado rumored. My guess is Bryant has a real chance to be dealt while Arenado is out there only to see what kind of haul they can get back. Everyone is always on the table.
Caught up?
Basically we're where we were when we left off. Nats looking to secure 3B with Donaldson and if not, then moving to relief help (evne though they could really use, and afford to, do both) neither situation is off the table yet.
*oh as if it doesn't have significant deferred money
Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Offseason Position Discussion : Outfield
Last year discussion revisited
The assumption was, at the time, Bryce would walk and Eaton, Soto, and Robles/MAT would fill out the outfield. Bryce walking we've discussed plenty at the time. Why the rest? Eaton tried to force himself back from injury in 2018 but after surgery and needed rest came back to have a very Eaton year cementing his spot. Soto busted out, nearly winning the Rookie of the Year earning the second spot. The third spot was Robles' to lose given his prospect status, strong audition, and MAT's failure at a larger role.
What happened? Eaton was Eaton, Soto kept being Soto, and Robles did well enough to hold onto CF the entire year. They played 151, 150, and 155 games respectively meaning the Nats didn't have to worry about throwing a Kendrick out there, or seeing if MAT would bounce back. If you want to be critical Eaton definitely took a step back, going from an above average player to a more average one, and Robles really hit JUST well enough at times to hold on (his fielding was as advertised). Soto? No complaints.
Presumed Plan : Same.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Eaton is cheap. The other two guys are ridiculously so. They all performed well enough or better last year. They had the third best OF in the NL combined and you may be able to argue second (the drop to 4th is big) There's not really a question here unless you were going to try to shake things up to get a large improvement over Eaton or Robles (like a Betts trade) to cover for the loss of Rendon
Problems with Presumed Plan : Eaton is old and trending the wrong direction and Robles didn't break out as you hoped. A lot of the production you expect from the OF rests with Soto and he's not quite to the team carrying level. A Soto and Robles repeat and a Eaton drop would still be a fine outfield, but when you need to cover for the loss of Rendon you need to be getting better, not worse.
My take :You do what the Nats are doing and hope for the best. It might be worthwhile to grab whatever decent OF doesn't end up getting a starting role for cheap (Cluberson, Dyson, Pillar, Maybin or everyone's hope : Puig) given the Nats needed depth and a guy who may potentially have a good year if needed.
I'm not particularly worried about any single position though I do think the group as a whole may disappoint. Eaton has the type of all-around skills that may slow a fall much like it did for Werth. But he still could easily fall below average over all. Robles' defense is great and takes over MATs role as the CF protecting questionable corners, all he has to do it hit ok really. He may bust out but he may also suffer with the league now having a large book on him. He still strikes out a ton and that's always the most worrying sign for a young player, especially one that doesn't rely on moonshot power. Soto of course is pretty much set. He's proven he can hit and his fielding, while suspect, is not anything that demands he get pulled into a less demanding position immediately. In fact he probably got a little better last year? Maybe? Though chances of him every being good are slim. Hitting wise the one "worry" is that well.. Soto did hit worse last year. Just a smidge but adjust for the offensive environment and it did happen. So what? Well the Nats NEED Soto to become SOTO now. To hit like Rendon did last year, like Bryce did in 2015 (well 90% of that) and it's possible it's just not there?
We compare Soto with the greats because that's the kind of start he had. But when did these comparison have their first MVP-type year? Mantle? Age 20. Aaron? 22. Mays? 23( but did go fight in a war at age 22). Trout? 20. Bryce (who's not with these guys but is compared to Soto for obvious reasons)? 22. Soto is going into his 21 season so there is a couple years for it to happen, but for a couple guys here it already did.
Oh just for fun remember mid year the Trout vs Soto comparisons were floating around and I was making sure you didn't think Soto was Trout because Trout is maybe the best player we'll see? Well here's the first 266 games for each
Soto : .287 / .403 / .535 56 homers
Trout : .309 / .383 / .540 50 homers
Seems pretty even. You may say Soto has an edge but first Soto at this point has about 120 more PAs so figure Trout for 5-6 more homers given equal PAs. Second, Soto has hit in a far more favorable offensive environment. Adjust for that and Trout takes the slight lead. It's still arguable but then you look at the speed (17 SBs for Soto vs 73 for Trout) and the very good CF defense vs maybe passable LF defense and it isn't close.
Ok But Trout IS slightly older at the time. Eventually we stop thinking about that but just for kicks let's give Soto another year to kick into high gear. About what would Soto have to hit in his next 150 games to hang with or pass Trout? Well by my calculations it would be something like :
.322 / .440 / .580
Oh wait... that's 2013/2014 vs now... adjust up a little .325 / .450 / .595?
He needs to arguably the best hitter in baseball next year to keep the batting argument going.
Longwinded aside to say : Soto is no Trout but he's still great but maybe the Nats need him to be Trout, at least at the plate.
Out of the box suggestion :
There's a bunch of eh OFs available that can replace Eaton for cheaper and let's face it, it's very unlikely you are going to bring him back for 2021 for 10.5 million. So trade him now. OF depth is a concern for a lot of teams, even contenders. Work something out with the A's or the D-backs or back to the White Sox! Anyway trade Eaton, sign a Maybin or something and grab something that might turn into something.
The assumption was, at the time, Bryce would walk and Eaton, Soto, and Robles/MAT would fill out the outfield. Bryce walking we've discussed plenty at the time. Why the rest? Eaton tried to force himself back from injury in 2018 but after surgery and needed rest came back to have a very Eaton year cementing his spot. Soto busted out, nearly winning the Rookie of the Year earning the second spot. The third spot was Robles' to lose given his prospect status, strong audition, and MAT's failure at a larger role.
What happened? Eaton was Eaton, Soto kept being Soto, and Robles did well enough to hold onto CF the entire year. They played 151, 150, and 155 games respectively meaning the Nats didn't have to worry about throwing a Kendrick out there, or seeing if MAT would bounce back. If you want to be critical Eaton definitely took a step back, going from an above average player to a more average one, and Robles really hit JUST well enough at times to hold on (his fielding was as advertised). Soto? No complaints.
Presumed Plan : Same.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Eaton is cheap. The other two guys are ridiculously so. They all performed well enough or better last year. They had the third best OF in the NL combined and you may be able to argue second (the drop to 4th is big) There's not really a question here unless you were going to try to shake things up to get a large improvement over Eaton or Robles (like a Betts trade) to cover for the loss of Rendon
Problems with Presumed Plan : Eaton is old and trending the wrong direction and Robles didn't break out as you hoped. A lot of the production you expect from the OF rests with Soto and he's not quite to the team carrying level. A Soto and Robles repeat and a Eaton drop would still be a fine outfield, but when you need to cover for the loss of Rendon you need to be getting better, not worse.
My take :You do what the Nats are doing and hope for the best. It might be worthwhile to grab whatever decent OF doesn't end up getting a starting role for cheap (Cluberson, Dyson, Pillar, Maybin or everyone's hope : Puig) given the Nats needed depth and a guy who may potentially have a good year if needed.
I'm not particularly worried about any single position though I do think the group as a whole may disappoint. Eaton has the type of all-around skills that may slow a fall much like it did for Werth. But he still could easily fall below average over all. Robles' defense is great and takes over MATs role as the CF protecting questionable corners, all he has to do it hit ok really. He may bust out but he may also suffer with the league now having a large book on him. He still strikes out a ton and that's always the most worrying sign for a young player, especially one that doesn't rely on moonshot power. Soto of course is pretty much set. He's proven he can hit and his fielding, while suspect, is not anything that demands he get pulled into a less demanding position immediately. In fact he probably got a little better last year? Maybe? Though chances of him every being good are slim. Hitting wise the one "worry" is that well.. Soto did hit worse last year. Just a smidge but adjust for the offensive environment and it did happen. So what? Well the Nats NEED Soto to become SOTO now. To hit like Rendon did last year, like Bryce did in 2015 (well 90% of that) and it's possible it's just not there?
We compare Soto with the greats because that's the kind of start he had. But when did these comparison have their first MVP-type year? Mantle? Age 20. Aaron? 22. Mays? 23( but did go fight in a war at age 22). Trout? 20. Bryce (who's not with these guys but is compared to Soto for obvious reasons)? 22. Soto is going into his 21 season so there is a couple years for it to happen, but for a couple guys here it already did.
Oh just for fun remember mid year the Trout vs Soto comparisons were floating around and I was making sure you didn't think Soto was Trout because Trout is maybe the best player we'll see? Well here's the first 266 games for each
Soto : .287 / .403 / .535 56 homers
Trout : .309 / .383 / .540 50 homers
Seems pretty even. You may say Soto has an edge but first Soto at this point has about 120 more PAs so figure Trout for 5-6 more homers given equal PAs. Second, Soto has hit in a far more favorable offensive environment. Adjust for that and Trout takes the slight lead. It's still arguable but then you look at the speed (17 SBs for Soto vs 73 for Trout) and the very good CF defense vs maybe passable LF defense and it isn't close.
Ok But Trout IS slightly older at the time. Eventually we stop thinking about that but just for kicks let's give Soto another year to kick into high gear. About what would Soto have to hit in his next 150 games to hang with or pass Trout? Well by my calculations it would be something like :
.322 / .440 / .580
Oh wait... that's 2013/2014 vs now... adjust up a little .325 / .450 / .595?
He needs to arguably the best hitter in baseball next year to keep the batting argument going.
Longwinded aside to say : Soto is no Trout but he's still great but maybe the Nats need him to be Trout, at least at the plate.
Out of the box suggestion :
There's a bunch of eh OFs available that can replace Eaton for cheaper and let's face it, it's very unlikely you are going to bring him back for 2021 for 10.5 million. So trade him now. OF depth is a concern for a lot of teams, even contenders. Work something out with the A's or the D-backs or back to the White Sox! Anyway trade Eaton, sign a Maybin or something and grab something that might turn into something.
Thursday, December 12, 2019
Rendon's an Angel now
RIP*, Sweet Prince.
So Rendon is gone and as losing Rendon can go he went to probably the best place he could for the Nats. Out of the NL East, Out of the NL, Not on an AL team that seems to be an immediate playoff threat. Can't ask for more there.
Of course that is an ancillary benefit that tries to cover for the HUGE loss that losing Rendon is. Rendon has been a Top 5ish player in baseball over the past 3 years. There are precious few players that can replace that production. Donaldson and Bryant, two names being bandied about, are All-Star level talents and you'd still not expect them to do it. No, accept facts - the Nats AREN'T going to replace Rendon. They are only going to patch the hole as best they can.
What does that mean? We're not sure yet. Could mean laying out money or making a trade for the guys I just noted to cover 80% of what Rendon can do. Could mean putting that money elsewhere like in the pen. Let's see what the options are today
Sign Donaldson : Donaldson is a nice fielding consistent hitter who had some great years with the Blue Jays a few seasons ago, but seems to have aged out of it. He'll be 34 next year and likely will give you good production for a year or two, after that it becomes dicier. The problem is, as everyone's Rendon back-up plan, he has no incentive to take a deal that's 2 years with options. He is going to get 3 years guaranteed, maybe 4, and he's going to get paid. 3/75? 4/80? We'll see how this shakes out but he is not going to be a cheap fix for anyone and it's tough to see the Nats matching what will likely end up being an overpay by some one.
Sign Todd Frazier - ok fine I'll skip this.
Sign Asdrubal Cabrera - He's fine! He'll get the job done hitting about average fielding about average and letting you worry about spending your money elsewhere, and he'll likely be had with something under 2/10 even in a market that will overheat for thirdbasemen. But he's a big step down. Big. If you make a move like this there better be a corresponding big move somewhere else.
Sign Maikel Franco or Starlin Casto - At 27 someone will take a chance on Franco who put together one half season a few years ago and since then has bounced between average, bad, and good. Not a great fielder he needs to hit to be productive, but he should be cheap. Casto is AsCab but younger and a little less talented. He's giving at 29 what AsCab is giving at 33. The benefit of signing him is he's less likely to feel the ravages of age. The downside is he's more likely to feel the ravages of not being as good. But he's ok in the field so that should stick. When the skills go, they go and no one can say if that's 28, 31, or 34. He'll likely get a better deal than AsCab because of the age so this is more a "let's not worry about this position for a while" move if the Nats make it. Both could end up with surprising performance from a young guy who then could slot in for a few years. But both could also end up with duds.
Trade for Kris Bryant - the word is out that the Cubs (and Red Sox for that matter) are eyeing their next rebuilds. Trying to shed some talent/salary now with guys they don't expect to keep going forward to set up for a quicker return to glory. For the Cubs that means Bryant is on the block. Once thought to be a star in the making (won a deserved MVP in 2016) he's lost a bit at the plate and on the field making him merely very good. He's got two more seasons before free agency and the Cubs see a guy they don't want to spend superstar money to keep around at ages 30-36 or so. The Nats could surely use him but do they have the pieces to get him? Normally you'd say no, but in this day and age Kieboom plus might actually do it.
Trade for Arenado - I mean possible but as of today the Rockies probably want a lot and want a team to take the whole salary so I don't see it happening. Note to Colorado management. If you are going to do something like sign theis Arneado deal it means going all in with money commitments for several years. Not a 2/3rds try for a couple of years. Maybe next time!
Trade for Andujar - depsite spending last year injured the Yankees 3rd baseman is only 25 and looked real good when healthy. But with Urshela deserving a starting gig and DJ LeMahieu (WHO THE NATS SHOULD HAVE SIGNED) being awesome in the field and a .300 hitter at heart there isn't a good place for him right now. But this is a non-starter for the Nats as the Yankees were talking about dealing him for talent NOW. For the Yankees now it's hard to see what that would be other than a big time pitchers (it would likely be a Happ/Andujar package) or a young cheap great reliever (you'd like not to pay everyone in the pen and have someone to turn to in a few years). The Nats aren't in the market to give up that.
What's do I see the Nats doing? I told you a few days ago. I see AsCab being back. Sorry. What's the best move now that Rendon is gone. It's hard to say give Donaldson four years but that fits in with the "now"ness of the Strasburg deal. In terms of pure value it would probably go - trade for Bryant if you can, sign Castro, then Donaldson. But these are all Plan Bs.
Anyway you slice is Rendon is gone and he took a piece of production with him that the Nats aren't getting back.
*Reside In Placentia
So Rendon is gone and as losing Rendon can go he went to probably the best place he could for the Nats. Out of the NL East, Out of the NL, Not on an AL team that seems to be an immediate playoff threat. Can't ask for more there.
Of course that is an ancillary benefit that tries to cover for the HUGE loss that losing Rendon is. Rendon has been a Top 5ish player in baseball over the past 3 years. There are precious few players that can replace that production. Donaldson and Bryant, two names being bandied about, are All-Star level talents and you'd still not expect them to do it. No, accept facts - the Nats AREN'T going to replace Rendon. They are only going to patch the hole as best they can.
What does that mean? We're not sure yet. Could mean laying out money or making a trade for the guys I just noted to cover 80% of what Rendon can do. Could mean putting that money elsewhere like in the pen. Let's see what the options are today
Sign Donaldson : Donaldson is a nice fielding consistent hitter who had some great years with the Blue Jays a few seasons ago, but seems to have aged out of it. He'll be 34 next year and likely will give you good production for a year or two, after that it becomes dicier. The problem is, as everyone's Rendon back-up plan, he has no incentive to take a deal that's 2 years with options. He is going to get 3 years guaranteed, maybe 4, and he's going to get paid. 3/75? 4/80? We'll see how this shakes out but he is not going to be a cheap fix for anyone and it's tough to see the Nats matching what will likely end up being an overpay by some one.
Sign Todd Frazier - ok fine I'll skip this.
Sign Asdrubal Cabrera - He's fine! He'll get the job done hitting about average fielding about average and letting you worry about spending your money elsewhere, and he'll likely be had with something under 2/10 even in a market that will overheat for thirdbasemen. But he's a big step down. Big. If you make a move like this there better be a corresponding big move somewhere else.
Sign Maikel Franco or Starlin Casto - At 27 someone will take a chance on Franco who put together one half season a few years ago and since then has bounced between average, bad, and good. Not a great fielder he needs to hit to be productive, but he should be cheap. Casto is AsCab but younger and a little less talented. He's giving at 29 what AsCab is giving at 33. The benefit of signing him is he's less likely to feel the ravages of age. The downside is he's more likely to feel the ravages of not being as good. But he's ok in the field so that should stick. When the skills go, they go and no one can say if that's 28, 31, or 34. He'll likely get a better deal than AsCab because of the age so this is more a "let's not worry about this position for a while" move if the Nats make it. Both could end up with surprising performance from a young guy who then could slot in for a few years. But both could also end up with duds.
Trade for Kris Bryant - the word is out that the Cubs (and Red Sox for that matter) are eyeing their next rebuilds. Trying to shed some talent/salary now with guys they don't expect to keep going forward to set up for a quicker return to glory. For the Cubs that means Bryant is on the block. Once thought to be a star in the making (won a deserved MVP in 2016) he's lost a bit at the plate and on the field making him merely very good. He's got two more seasons before free agency and the Cubs see a guy they don't want to spend superstar money to keep around at ages 30-36 or so. The Nats could surely use him but do they have the pieces to get him? Normally you'd say no, but in this day and age Kieboom plus might actually do it.
Trade for Arenado - I mean possible but as of today the Rockies probably want a lot and want a team to take the whole salary so I don't see it happening. Note to Colorado management. If you are going to do something like sign theis Arneado deal it means going all in with money commitments for several years. Not a 2/3rds try for a couple of years. Maybe next time!
Trade for Andujar - depsite spending last year injured the Yankees 3rd baseman is only 25 and looked real good when healthy. But with Urshela deserving a starting gig and DJ LeMahieu (WHO THE NATS SHOULD HAVE SIGNED) being awesome in the field and a .300 hitter at heart there isn't a good place for him right now. But this is a non-starter for the Nats as the Yankees were talking about dealing him for talent NOW. For the Yankees now it's hard to see what that would be other than a big time pitchers (it would likely be a Happ/Andujar package) or a young cheap great reliever (you'd like not to pay everyone in the pen and have someone to turn to in a few years). The Nats aren't in the market to give up that.
What's do I see the Nats doing? I told you a few days ago. I see AsCab being back. Sorry. What's the best move now that Rendon is gone. It's hard to say give Donaldson four years but that fits in with the "now"ness of the Strasburg deal. In terms of pure value it would probably go - trade for Bryant if you can, sign Castro, then Donaldson. But these are all Plan Bs.
Anyway you slice is Rendon is gone and he took a piece of production with him that the Nats aren't getting back.
*Reside In Placentia
Tuesday, December 10, 2019
The town that Strasmas didn't forget
You might not have heard but Strasburg signed back with the Nats. The deal is HUGE 7/245 (or 35 per). Let's understand now he almost certainly not be worth it. Yes I know, Scherzer was and I suppose the Nats could luck into what I consider the second best pitching FA contract of all-time* But let's look at the facts. He's one year older now than when Scherzer signed. He has far less history of pitching the amount of innings that Max had, and a far greater injury history. He pitched an amount of innings last year well off his usual pace
So Max : Going into his 30/31 season, just had 6 basically injury free years, where 195 was his personal low for a season (when you include post-season) and pitching as he always had
Stras : Going into his 31/32 season, just had his first injury free year since 2014, threw 245 innings 25% more than he has thrown in any season since 2014.
Oh yeah - and Strasburg is pitching off a Tommy John repaired arm.
So it's not going to be worth it in the straight sense, but who cares! Really baseball contracts are being worth it in a different way. Stras needs to give the Nats ace level pitching for 3-4 years and then can fade away slowly. Can he do that? It's not impossible. Max just did it for those ages. It IS unlikely but the only other option for the Nats was going after Cole and hoping to win a bidding war.
This deal keeps Stras on the team for his career. It keeps the Nats full of aces in 2020 to defend their title. It also puts a big ol $35 million toward the cap. If you are a "Nats are going to try to stay under the cap" type - this makes signing Rendon VERY unlikley. It would be nearly impossible to sign him and then anyone else good and fill out this roster. I suppose they could fill it with garbage back-ups and relievers and skip out on the 5th starter and hope Ross finally has gotten it. But more likely they let Rendon go and smartly fill out all those other spots.
Is there anything in the fancy stats to suggest Stras isn't going to be able to help next year, if healthy? Nope. In fact Stras has been remarkably consistent over the years. Maybe a little more homer prone while getting a few more ground balls, as contradictory as that may sound. But the trends are not huge. Strasburg started out as a K machine and then the Nats had an ill-fated attempt to make him an ultimate control pitcher (remember the "strikeouts are too many pitches" era?") but since then has been the same pitcher for years, which has produced consistent 2nd tier Cy Young performance, if not results. Last year kind of broke in a way to highlight that but it only got him the results he deserved not some fluke measure.
The worst thing that can happen to the Nats is an end to the starting pitching injury luck. It's now 2 TJ guys, one well into that second elbow and Max going on 36. But they need them all for pretty much 75-80 starts. There's not much you can do though. The Nats days of relying on young arms are over and relying on older ones is risky, but in this case necessary.
My take is this - if you were going to let Rendon walk or were afraid he was going, you had to bring back Strasburg (or sign a Cole). It wasn't going to get you a team friendly deal but this is about staying where the Nats are at his moment, with Max still presumably Max and Soto a burgeoning superstar. Ideally something else will work out - it has in the past. A pitcher will develop (like.... uhhhh) or a hitter ( Kieboom or Garcia seem like the most likely ones) to give the Nats another cheap option to keep costs down when they do go out and sign what they need. If that doesn't happen in 2020 or 2021... well then we start looking at the Nats likely rebuilding post-under control Soto (maybe with him, don't worry) but for the next couple of years they should remain in the mix and could be favorites depending on how they spend.
*Behind Randy Johnson's 4yr, 4 Cy Young, WS contract
So Max : Going into his 30/31 season, just had 6 basically injury free years, where 195 was his personal low for a season (when you include post-season) and pitching as he always had
Stras : Going into his 31/32 season, just had his first injury free year since 2014, threw 245 innings 25% more than he has thrown in any season since 2014.
Oh yeah - and Strasburg is pitching off a Tommy John repaired arm.
So it's not going to be worth it in the straight sense, but who cares! Really baseball contracts are being worth it in a different way. Stras needs to give the Nats ace level pitching for 3-4 years and then can fade away slowly. Can he do that? It's not impossible. Max just did it for those ages. It IS unlikely but the only other option for the Nats was going after Cole and hoping to win a bidding war.
This deal keeps Stras on the team for his career. It keeps the Nats full of aces in 2020 to defend their title. It also puts a big ol $35 million toward the cap. If you are a "Nats are going to try to stay under the cap" type - this makes signing Rendon VERY unlikley. It would be nearly impossible to sign him and then anyone else good and fill out this roster. I suppose they could fill it with garbage back-ups and relievers and skip out on the 5th starter and hope Ross finally has gotten it. But more likely they let Rendon go and smartly fill out all those other spots.
Is there anything in the fancy stats to suggest Stras isn't going to be able to help next year, if healthy? Nope. In fact Stras has been remarkably consistent over the years. Maybe a little more homer prone while getting a few more ground balls, as contradictory as that may sound. But the trends are not huge. Strasburg started out as a K machine and then the Nats had an ill-fated attempt to make him an ultimate control pitcher (remember the "strikeouts are too many pitches" era?") but since then has been the same pitcher for years, which has produced consistent 2nd tier Cy Young performance, if not results. Last year kind of broke in a way to highlight that but it only got him the results he deserved not some fluke measure.
The worst thing that can happen to the Nats is an end to the starting pitching injury luck. It's now 2 TJ guys, one well into that second elbow and Max going on 36. But they need them all for pretty much 75-80 starts. There's not much you can do though. The Nats days of relying on young arms are over and relying on older ones is risky, but in this case necessary.
My take is this - if you were going to let Rendon walk or were afraid he was going, you had to bring back Strasburg (or sign a Cole). It wasn't going to get you a team friendly deal but this is about staying where the Nats are at his moment, with Max still presumably Max and Soto a burgeoning superstar. Ideally something else will work out - it has in the past. A pitcher will develop (like.... uhhhh) or a hitter ( Kieboom or Garcia seem like the most likely ones) to give the Nats another cheap option to keep costs down when they do go out and sign what they need. If that doesn't happen in 2020 or 2021... well then we start looking at the Nats likely rebuilding post-under control Soto (maybe with him, don't worry) but for the next couple of years they should remain in the mix and could be favorites depending on how they spend.
*Behind Randy Johnson's 4yr, 4 Cy Young, WS contract
Friday, December 06, 2019
Fast (Strasburg), Easy (Rendon) or Cheap (Neither) I can get you any two... but not Fast and Easy
Hey, Howie's probably back. That's good!
Lerner opened his big trap yesterday and said things.
He's almost certainly spinning this. They almost certainly can afford this. They have billions, just made a ton more money with the deep playoff run and championship (which will continue to pay off in merchandise and ticket sales in 2020), and stand to have another windfall from the MASN deal at some point now sooner than later.
But let's be honest, this is just how owners talk. It's like telling your kids in the store you can't afford to buy each their own ice cream. You totally can - but you have a budget in your mind for desserts and that doesn't include a tub of Haagen-Dazs for Tommy, a box of Magnum ice cream bars for sister Sue, and few artisan pastries for your Mommy. They have a budget in mind for the team and that doesn't include spending a ton on both Rendon and Strasburg. That's what he's really saying.
How is that possible you might ask? We do (supposedly) know that the Nats put a 7/210 offer on the table for Rendon when Strasburg still hadn't agreed to an opt out. If they could have afforded it then, why not now? Well I have three theories which I'll give you from least likely to most.
Theory 1 : The long term plan.
In this theory the Nats had a plan on what they wanted to do 5 years down the road. Maybe it was a plan where they built another Top 5-10 payroll team around a ridiculous Juan Soto contract. Maybe it was an eventual slow tear down to rebuild. We don't know but we can assume whatever they offered Rendon, they saw how this fit into that plan and five years would be post Strasburg's initial contract so that wasn't factored in. But now they are looking to re-up Strasburg for a bunch of years AND Rendon for a bunch of years, and doing both would disrupt whatever that fiscal plan was.
Why do I consider this least likely? Well it's pretty dumb in baseball to count on anything five years down the road. Too much variability. You can certainly tear down and say "we hope to be better by then" but neither of these plans were than. A slow teardown also doesn't really fit with re-signing Rendon.
Theory 2 : Got the title, now let's tighten ranks
The Lerners are by nature not big spenders. You can read any article about the organization, including some early Nats ones, and see that. However they maintained, once the Nats became competitive, a healthy payroll. Sure they could have splurged a little more, but they have been Top 5ish and the yells from the cheap seats (which I was sitting in) of "CHEEEEEEEEEEEP" have gone by the wayside. However, what if those payrolls were driven by one single desire? What if ultimately money kept flowing out because Uncle Ted desperately wanted to have a winner before he passed? If that's the case than when the Nats got that final out of the series that also marked the final out of top tier payrolls. The Nats could now pare down to a number they were more comfortable with which is... well we don't know really? We know what it is when they are bad (pay nothing), but not when they are still able to compete
I consider this possible, but I like my other theory better
Theory 1 : The contract puzzle pieces fit
We know that contract was 7/210. What we don't know is how it was structured. We have seen in the past the Nats do funny things with contract to make the money flow be how they want it to be. So it's easy to imagine that the Nats planned for a 2020 where they had planned to pay out Strasburg 25 million a 2021 where he would make 15 and a 2022 where he would make 15 and worked Rendon's contract around that. Maybe it started with 20 million, then 35 million a piece in the next two years. Whatever it was, it worked for the Nats. But Rendon rejected that, preferring the more lucrative money in hand. And Strasburg opting out might mean the same payroll numbers won't be seen in those year. It certainly means the luxury tax number will go up as his average AAV jumps.
So for the Nats they are faced with a very real possibility of 60+ million to the luxury tax with only about 70 million currently free and several rosters spots after that to fill. Signing both would mean pushing the deferred money on smaller deals, which is harder to do, or accepting going over the tax. Also hitting some number in payroll likely higher than the pictured.
It matters which theory because that will effect how the Nats move in the next couple of years. If it's #2 we should see a sharp reduction in salary. If it's #1 we should see maintenance but that has been done through some financial movement they may not be able to do with every free agent. If it's #1 who knows? Regardless the point is something fans pretty much understood would be true - the Nats weren't bringing back both stars - is now closer to reality and for a reason Nats fans didn't want to hear. It's not because of crazy outbidding by more desperate teams, but at least in part because the team itself reached whatever self-imposed limit it set. The contracts they end up with may be perfectly reasonable high-end market deals, maybe not even high-end, but the Nats would still be out because they set their overall number. A few weeks after the incredible high of winning it all, this marks a bad start to the post-Championship era.
Lerner opened his big trap yesterday and said things.
He's almost certainly spinning this. They almost certainly can afford this. They have billions, just made a ton more money with the deep playoff run and championship (which will continue to pay off in merchandise and ticket sales in 2020), and stand to have another windfall from the MASN deal at some point now sooner than later.
But let's be honest, this is just how owners talk. It's like telling your kids in the store you can't afford to buy each their own ice cream. You totally can - but you have a budget in your mind for desserts and that doesn't include a tub of Haagen-Dazs for Tommy, a box of Magnum ice cream bars for sister Sue, and few artisan pastries for your Mommy. They have a budget in mind for the team and that doesn't include spending a ton on both Rendon and Strasburg. That's what he's really saying.
How is that possible you might ask? We do (supposedly) know that the Nats put a 7/210 offer on the table for Rendon when Strasburg still hadn't agreed to an opt out. If they could have afforded it then, why not now? Well I have three theories which I'll give you from least likely to most.
Theory 1 : The long term plan.
In this theory the Nats had a plan on what they wanted to do 5 years down the road. Maybe it was a plan where they built another Top 5-10 payroll team around a ridiculous Juan Soto contract. Maybe it was an eventual slow tear down to rebuild. We don't know but we can assume whatever they offered Rendon, they saw how this fit into that plan and five years would be post Strasburg's initial contract so that wasn't factored in. But now they are looking to re-up Strasburg for a bunch of years AND Rendon for a bunch of years, and doing both would disrupt whatever that fiscal plan was.
Why do I consider this least likely? Well it's pretty dumb in baseball to count on anything five years down the road. Too much variability. You can certainly tear down and say "we hope to be better by then" but neither of these plans were than. A slow teardown also doesn't really fit with re-signing Rendon.
Theory 2 : Got the title, now let's tighten ranks
The Lerners are by nature not big spenders. You can read any article about the organization, including some early Nats ones, and see that. However they maintained, once the Nats became competitive, a healthy payroll. Sure they could have splurged a little more, but they have been Top 5ish and the yells from the cheap seats (which I was sitting in) of "CHEEEEEEEEEEEP" have gone by the wayside. However, what if those payrolls were driven by one single desire? What if ultimately money kept flowing out because Uncle Ted desperately wanted to have a winner before he passed? If that's the case than when the Nats got that final out of the series that also marked the final out of top tier payrolls. The Nats could now pare down to a number they were more comfortable with which is... well we don't know really? We know what it is when they are bad (pay nothing), but not when they are still able to compete
I consider this possible, but I like my other theory better
Theory 1 : The contract puzzle pieces fit
We know that contract was 7/210. What we don't know is how it was structured. We have seen in the past the Nats do funny things with contract to make the money flow be how they want it to be. So it's easy to imagine that the Nats planned for a 2020 where they had planned to pay out Strasburg 25 million a 2021 where he would make 15 and a 2022 where he would make 15 and worked Rendon's contract around that. Maybe it started with 20 million, then 35 million a piece in the next two years. Whatever it was, it worked for the Nats. But Rendon rejected that, preferring the more lucrative money in hand. And Strasburg opting out might mean the same payroll numbers won't be seen in those year. It certainly means the luxury tax number will go up as his average AAV jumps.
So for the Nats they are faced with a very real possibility of 60+ million to the luxury tax with only about 70 million currently free and several rosters spots after that to fill. Signing both would mean pushing the deferred money on smaller deals, which is harder to do, or accepting going over the tax. Also hitting some number in payroll likely higher than the pictured.
It matters which theory because that will effect how the Nats move in the next couple of years. If it's #2 we should see a sharp reduction in salary. If it's #1 we should see maintenance but that has been done through some financial movement they may not be able to do with every free agent. If it's #1 who knows? Regardless the point is something fans pretty much understood would be true - the Nats weren't bringing back both stars - is now closer to reality and for a reason Nats fans didn't want to hear. It's not because of crazy outbidding by more desperate teams, but at least in part because the team itself reached whatever self-imposed limit it set. The contracts they end up with may be perfectly reasonable high-end market deals, maybe not even high-end, but the Nats would still be out because they set their overall number. A few weeks after the incredible high of winning it all, this marks a bad start to the post-Championship era.
Thursday, December 05, 2019
Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher
Last year discussion revisited
I assumed last year that the Nats would bring in someone to start (via trade or FA) and the rest of the schlubs would fight for a back-up role. Ideally that meant Grandal or Realmuto but there were a couple riskier options for a full-time role (like Ramos) out there as well. Given that I thought they'd punt on catcher until late, I suggested getting two vets to man the position and platoon. Which is what the Nats did! Not the two I suggested (McCann and Lucroy) but instead Suzuki and Gomes came in.
How'd they do? ehhh. Suzuki was supposed to be the hit no-field guy and while he didn't field (don't ask him to throw anyone out) as "planned" he didn't hit as well as they hoped. It was still good enough given the low bar catcher is set at but they were certainly hoping for more. Gomes was worse. Brought in with an eye toward being a long-term solution, Gomes reverted from a maybe average bat (for a catcher) to a terrible one. As the field first guy he didn't come through there - at least not as the Nats would have liked. He didn't frame as well and had a career high in passed balls (but objectively was still pretty good).
All in all catching was a small problem for the Nats but in the scheme of things it's a problem for most teams right now and with no cheap and easy solutions mid-season the Nats just let things go and hoped it wouldn't end up mattering. And it didn't!
Presumed Plan : Suzuki and Gomes redux
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Suzuki is signed, is well liked in the clubhouse and for a catcher still hits well. There could be a wall coming he's going to hit but there's no reason not to try it again. Gomes was released and then resigned for slightly less money. The pieces are there. They are going to use them.
Problems with Presumed Plan : This plan is nothing but problems. Suzuki hits well for a catcher but is almost to the point he shouldn't be playing catcher anymore. They can probably fudge it for another year but any further drop in hitting and it gets real questionable what you are even doing with Kurt. Gomes was nearly unplayably bad at the plate last year and showed some drop behind the plate. If that drop continues it gets even more questionable what... well you get the point.
My take : Oooh I don't like this. Gomes has pretty much solidified himself as a terrible hitter, though some may cling to one hot month to finish the year. I go with the deep history of not hitting and think it'll happen again. I think he'll field well again (I think the PB high was in part dealing with a whole new set of pitchers, and mainly one in Corbin, who depends on throwing sweeping sliders) so I can see bringing him back but 5 million is too rich for my blood, 2 years is a year too long, and as a quasi-platoon instead of a back-up I'm not thrilled with.
I'm low on Suzuki for next year mainly because of his age and the lack of improvements seen the last few year despite the fairly light workload. This is a guy aging into a back-up role and will probably suffer next year even in a platoon. The question is whether it's mild - in which he'll still be better than the average catcher and the Nats will luck out with one more useful year in that role, or if it's major and the Nats have a huge problem.
But the Nats have done what they have done. This is settled and there isn't any reason to discuss alternatives.
Out of the box suggestion :
There isn't a good one right now given the Nats situation. They'd have to package one of these guys out the door and they aren't going to get back much if anything. But if I gotta come up with something.
You trade Suzuki and Gomes out to whoever wants them for catching prospects. The key here is you aren't looking for good ones necessarily. Trade Suzuki to the Rangers for Randy Florentino (their #25 guy). Gomes to the Angels for whoever qualifies as their best (not even in Top 30). The goal is to get quantity here and try to strike gold. Catching is a spot where bad play is accepted. Grab a Josh Phlegly for a million and Kevin Plawecki for a million and hope you get lucky at the majors while you hope your "flood the minors with crap" plan reveals a gem accidentally flushed down the toilet. You won a series with bad catching. You aren't going to get good catching. Why not try to maybe get lucky for the future.
I assumed last year that the Nats would bring in someone to start (via trade or FA) and the rest of the schlubs would fight for a back-up role. Ideally that meant Grandal or Realmuto but there were a couple riskier options for a full-time role (like Ramos) out there as well. Given that I thought they'd punt on catcher until late, I suggested getting two vets to man the position and platoon. Which is what the Nats did! Not the two I suggested (McCann and Lucroy) but instead Suzuki and Gomes came in.
How'd they do? ehhh. Suzuki was supposed to be the hit no-field guy and while he didn't field (don't ask him to throw anyone out) as "planned" he didn't hit as well as they hoped. It was still good enough given the low bar catcher is set at but they were certainly hoping for more. Gomes was worse. Brought in with an eye toward being a long-term solution, Gomes reverted from a maybe average bat (for a catcher) to a terrible one. As the field first guy he didn't come through there - at least not as the Nats would have liked. He didn't frame as well and had a career high in passed balls (but objectively was still pretty good).
All in all catching was a small problem for the Nats but in the scheme of things it's a problem for most teams right now and with no cheap and easy solutions mid-season the Nats just let things go and hoped it wouldn't end up mattering. And it didn't!
Presumed Plan : Suzuki and Gomes redux
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : Suzuki is signed, is well liked in the clubhouse and for a catcher still hits well. There could be a wall coming he's going to hit but there's no reason not to try it again. Gomes was released and then resigned for slightly less money. The pieces are there. They are going to use them.
Problems with Presumed Plan : This plan is nothing but problems. Suzuki hits well for a catcher but is almost to the point he shouldn't be playing catcher anymore. They can probably fudge it for another year but any further drop in hitting and it gets real questionable what you are even doing with Kurt. Gomes was nearly unplayably bad at the plate last year and showed some drop behind the plate. If that drop continues it gets even more questionable what... well you get the point.
My take : Oooh I don't like this. Gomes has pretty much solidified himself as a terrible hitter, though some may cling to one hot month to finish the year. I go with the deep history of not hitting and think it'll happen again. I think he'll field well again (I think the PB high was in part dealing with a whole new set of pitchers, and mainly one in Corbin, who depends on throwing sweeping sliders) so I can see bringing him back but 5 million is too rich for my blood, 2 years is a year too long, and as a quasi-platoon instead of a back-up I'm not thrilled with.
I'm low on Suzuki for next year mainly because of his age and the lack of improvements seen the last few year despite the fairly light workload. This is a guy aging into a back-up role and will probably suffer next year even in a platoon. The question is whether it's mild - in which he'll still be better than the average catcher and the Nats will luck out with one more useful year in that role, or if it's major and the Nats have a huge problem.
But the Nats have done what they have done. This is settled and there isn't any reason to discuss alternatives.
Out of the box suggestion :
There isn't a good one right now given the Nats situation. They'd have to package one of these guys out the door and they aren't going to get back much if anything. But if I gotta come up with something.
You trade Suzuki and Gomes out to whoever wants them for catching prospects. The key here is you aren't looking for good ones necessarily. Trade Suzuki to the Rangers for Randy Florentino (their #25 guy). Gomes to the Angels for whoever qualifies as their best (not even in Top 30). The goal is to get quantity here and try to strike gold. Catching is a spot where bad play is accepted. Grab a Josh Phlegly for a million and Kevin Plawecki for a million and hope you get lucky at the majors while you hope your "flood the minors with crap" plan reveals a gem accidentally flushed down the toilet. You won a series with bad catching. You aren't going to get good catching. Why not try to maybe get lucky for the future.
Tuesday, December 03, 2019
Offseason Position Discussion : Third Base
Last year's discussion revisited.
We assumed Rendon would start and play again. I didn't even really consider injuries a concern - pegging Rendon at 130-140 games played at least, making his back-up only matter if the Nats didn't fix other issues. They did so it didn't matter that they just had a piecemeal plan for him. More importantly he missed less time than expected and played 146 games. When Rendon is healthy he is an MVP candidate and he put up a .319 / .412 / .598 line with excellent defense that got him 3rd in the voting.
The big issue of the season at third was the lack of extension / new contract for Rendon. Last year at this time we made the assumption that while the Nats could bring back Rendon AND Bryce it was more likely they would sign a pitcher and bring back one of the two. They signed that pitcher (Corbin) and let Bryce walk, which should have made Rendon re-signing a formality. But instead here we are, heading into the Winter Meetings with stories like this hanging over the team. Adding to the troubles is Strasburg opting out after an excellent year, meaning the Nats have to work two big contracts in the same off-season. Affording it shouldn't be an issue but signing both to big time deals would likely hamstring all other improvements (assuming you buy into the budget constraints of teams)
Presumed Plan :You are making me guess here so I'd say - Rendon walks. Asdrubal Cabrera is brought back as 2B/3B coverage and him and Kieboom spend at least the first few months splitting time and positions.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : If the Nats wanted Rendon to come back he'd be back. The numbers are pretty clear on what he wants which is "at least Arenado money" which is 8/260 or 32.5 per. The Nats seemingly offered him 7/210 or 30 per with some heavy deferments, which Rendon also seems uninterested in. There seems to be some thought he would accept a shorter deal for more money (say 5/200) but I don't know how much of that is speculation.
Anyway the way I see it is that the Nats offer wouldn't be out there unless it was basically their best and final, much like the Bryce deal was last year. Here's a public accounting of what we offered (without too many specifics that may make it look worse) - if he doesn't want it, we tried. He doesn't want it, so he's gone.
So why AsCab instead of a real FA like Donaldson? I think the Nats would like to see if Kieboom has flexibility to take 3B so if Garcia develops he can take 2B. I also think the Nats would be more likely to spend money elsewhere (hey Cole!) or not at all (maybe wrap up Soto for a few more years?) then to put a ton of money into a one year guy. They haven't really done that.
Problems with Presumed Plan : I mean if you want to win, this makes winning a lot harder. Rendon was one of the best players in baseball last year and you don't just replace him. And if you don't even try to replace him - well the drop off will be harsh. The Nats line-up isn't particularly deep and instead relied on a couple of table setters, two stars, and Howie backing them up to work. It currently sits without Howie and a star meaning real trouble on the horizon. Also let's not dismiss the loss of Rendon's D. He's been a great 3B and none of the guys I've mentioned as replacements would replace that either.
If the Nats go full pitching as I've suggested here that they might for a while now. That might be enough to get them back to the playoffs like a Giants team in the early 2010s, but it won't win the division, and given the Nats don't seem likely to fix the pen that plan has even more risk. One injury from one of these pitchers - and we're assuming Max, Stras, Corbin, Cole here all worked VERY hard over the past year - and it falls apart.
My take : RE-SIGN RENDON YOU FOOLS! The Nats have drafted 3 HoF level talents in Stras, Bryce, and Rendon. They are in danger of losing all three in the matter of 2 off-seasons. That's crazy.
Bryce is gone so there's no fixing that, but there's still time to bring back the other two. Hitting seems more reliable that pitching. Rendon is a full 2 years younger than Strasburg. Rendon has produced more for the Nationals. These facts would making Rendon the option if you had to choose one (but you don't). What's working in Stras' favor is the complete lack of development of new starting pitching prospects. But still I give the edge to signing Rendon. But really sign both.
It's not difficult. You have an MVP-type who you know, who you trust, who the fans love, who is here now. Sign him.
Out of the box suggestion :
The Nats are out of boxing this themselves aren't they? Can Lindor play 3B?
Kyle Seager is a great defensive third baseman who the ever rebuilding Mariners don't need. They probably want more than the Nats can offer, but what you want and what you can get are two different things. The ownership wants to be cheap if they aren't being good. Seager is 32 and coming off a major injury that makes him a risk even with 2/3rds a season behind him. The return is probably going to be lower now than it will be if he starts the season well. So strike now and start playing the "how long can we keep this going game" that's predicated on Max's age and the older pitching staff's health. Plan in two year bursts. Seager would fit those plans and might not cost you all that much.
We assumed Rendon would start and play again. I didn't even really consider injuries a concern - pegging Rendon at 130-140 games played at least, making his back-up only matter if the Nats didn't fix other issues. They did so it didn't matter that they just had a piecemeal plan for him. More importantly he missed less time than expected and played 146 games. When Rendon is healthy he is an MVP candidate and he put up a .319 / .412 / .598 line with excellent defense that got him 3rd in the voting.
The big issue of the season at third was the lack of extension / new contract for Rendon. Last year at this time we made the assumption that while the Nats could bring back Rendon AND Bryce it was more likely they would sign a pitcher and bring back one of the two. They signed that pitcher (Corbin) and let Bryce walk, which should have made Rendon re-signing a formality. But instead here we are, heading into the Winter Meetings with stories like this hanging over the team. Adding to the troubles is Strasburg opting out after an excellent year, meaning the Nats have to work two big contracts in the same off-season. Affording it shouldn't be an issue but signing both to big time deals would likely hamstring all other improvements (assuming you buy into the budget constraints of teams)
Presumed Plan :You are making me guess here so I'd say - Rendon walks. Asdrubal Cabrera is brought back as 2B/3B coverage and him and Kieboom spend at least the first few months splitting time and positions.
Reasoning on Presumed Plan : If the Nats wanted Rendon to come back he'd be back. The numbers are pretty clear on what he wants which is "at least Arenado money" which is 8/260 or 32.5 per. The Nats seemingly offered him 7/210 or 30 per with some heavy deferments, which Rendon also seems uninterested in. There seems to be some thought he would accept a shorter deal for more money (say 5/200) but I don't know how much of that is speculation.
Anyway the way I see it is that the Nats offer wouldn't be out there unless it was basically their best and final, much like the Bryce deal was last year. Here's a public accounting of what we offered (without too many specifics that may make it look worse) - if he doesn't want it, we tried. He doesn't want it, so he's gone.
So why AsCab instead of a real FA like Donaldson? I think the Nats would like to see if Kieboom has flexibility to take 3B so if Garcia develops he can take 2B. I also think the Nats would be more likely to spend money elsewhere (hey Cole!) or not at all (maybe wrap up Soto for a few more years?) then to put a ton of money into a one year guy. They haven't really done that.
Problems with Presumed Plan : I mean if you want to win, this makes winning a lot harder. Rendon was one of the best players in baseball last year and you don't just replace him. And if you don't even try to replace him - well the drop off will be harsh. The Nats line-up isn't particularly deep and instead relied on a couple of table setters, two stars, and Howie backing them up to work. It currently sits without Howie and a star meaning real trouble on the horizon. Also let's not dismiss the loss of Rendon's D. He's been a great 3B and none of the guys I've mentioned as replacements would replace that either.
If the Nats go full pitching as I've suggested here that they might for a while now. That might be enough to get them back to the playoffs like a Giants team in the early 2010s, but it won't win the division, and given the Nats don't seem likely to fix the pen that plan has even more risk. One injury from one of these pitchers - and we're assuming Max, Stras, Corbin, Cole here all worked VERY hard over the past year - and it falls apart.
My take : RE-SIGN RENDON YOU FOOLS! The Nats have drafted 3 HoF level talents in Stras, Bryce, and Rendon. They are in danger of losing all three in the matter of 2 off-seasons. That's crazy.
Bryce is gone so there's no fixing that, but there's still time to bring back the other two. Hitting seems more reliable that pitching. Rendon is a full 2 years younger than Strasburg. Rendon has produced more for the Nationals. These facts would making Rendon the option if you had to choose one (but you don't). What's working in Stras' favor is the complete lack of development of new starting pitching prospects. But still I give the edge to signing Rendon. But really sign both.
It's not difficult. You have an MVP-type who you know, who you trust, who the fans love, who is here now. Sign him.
Out of the box suggestion :
The Nats are out of boxing this themselves aren't they? Can Lindor play 3B?
Kyle Seager is a great defensive third baseman who the ever rebuilding Mariners don't need. They probably want more than the Nats can offer, but what you want and what you can get are two different things. The ownership wants to be cheap if they aren't being good. Seager is 32 and coming off a major injury that makes him a risk even with 2/3rds a season behind him. The return is probably going to be lower now than it will be if he starts the season well. So strike now and start playing the "how long can we keep this going game" that's predicated on Max's age and the older pitching staff's health. Plan in two year bursts. Seager would fit those plans and might not cost you all that much.
Monday, December 02, 2019
Monday Quickie - nothing happened
I guess Difo signed but if you can't read between the lines it's not an assurance he's coming back. It's an assurance IF he comes back he will get paid a million (and if he doesn't he'll get a nice couple hundred grand as a going away present). Why keep him around? He fits a spot - which is closest in the system to major leagues without being an actual prospect who's playing time you are concerned about that you can slot somewhere then jettison if necessary with little thought. If he's the main middle infield back-up that's an issue but if he's man 26 so be it.
Drew Pomeranz went off to San Diego to pitch crossing another reliever off the Nats' fans wish list. It looks very much like the Nats are fine passing relievers again, despite the spotty history with that working out.
What's going on in the waiting game? Rosenthal hinted that Rendon's offer had some heavy deferments and that Rendon wasn't interested. As for Strrasburg its been quiet but the Winter Meetings are in his back yard of San Diego this year so expect him to meet with teams if a contract isn't signed by then. And if a contract isn't signed by then, I'd be a bit worried.
It's a quickie! For reals this time
Drew Pomeranz went off to San Diego to pitch crossing another reliever off the Nats' fans wish list. It looks very much like the Nats are fine passing relievers again, despite the spotty history with that working out.
What's going on in the waiting game? Rosenthal hinted that Rendon's offer had some heavy deferments and that Rendon wasn't interested. As for Strrasburg its been quiet but the Winter Meetings are in his back yard of San Diego this year so expect him to meet with teams if a contract isn't signed by then. And if a contract isn't signed by then, I'd be a bit worried.
It's a quickie! For reals this time
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