The Nats were officially eliminated from the playoffs this weekend. To give you an idea of how the math plays with fans hopes think about that for a second. You could have honestly started arguing the Nats were out of the playoffs for months now, but only this past weekend did it become actually impossible. Crazy. You'd think these things get decided a lot earlier but since we allow for "one team wins every game, other team loses every game" scenarios you almost always make it to the point where the games left to play equal the games behind. Odds help put the chances in better context but still possible means possible and some fans are always going to hold onto that. And why not? We've now got 5 months of no winning baseball to get through. Why make it 7?
Anyway here's your CY and ROY updates
CY
Max : 17-7 2.57 213.2 IP 0.917 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 12.2 K/9, 290 K overall
DeGrom : 9-9 1.77 209 IP, 0.938 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 11.2 K/9, 259 K
Max had an off game and frankly has had an off finish to 2018. In his last 5 starts he's posting an ERA over 5.00. Even throwing that in though, he's pitched as well this year as last, and he's going to throw 20 more innings. It's a Cy Young worthy season. The problem is, of course, that there's a slightly better season sitting out there in deGrom who has a touch fewer Ks but doesn't give up the homer a game like Max does. The crux ends up being what would you rather have over the course of four games - 37 Ks but 3 homers, or 34 Ks and 1 home run. That's a trade you make every time. Max's hope comes down to getting to 300Ks and deGrom just blowing completely up with a 7 run 1.2 inning type outing. The former is a good bet on happening. The latter is extremely unlikely.
ROY
Soto : .293 / .405 / .509 20HR, 72R, 65RBI, 5 SB
Acuna : .289 / .364 / .561 26HR, 77R, 58RBI, 15 SB
Is it done? I'm not going to say that. The talent we're dealing with here for both players is the type that can have a week where they hit .500 and blast out 6 homers. Soto does that while Acuna struggles and that last impression maybe puts him over the top. However failing that Soto is out. After getting back in the race by topping Acuna in the H2H series, Soto has had a terrible time. He's gone 2 for 23 with no walks and 5 Ks. Acuna hasn't been great but this drop off erased all the good Soto did in those Braves games.
What's interesting in this final week now that the Nats are done? Well, I mentioned at some point that the scheduling gods haven't been kind to us to end the year. We'd like this last week to have MIL/CHC, LAD/COL, NYY/OAK, maybe even ATL/CHC but we get none of those. Nearly all teams still in an interesting spot are not facing off directly. The best bet for a singularly interesting game is the Brewers and Cardinals who face off to start the week. For neither team is WC HFA the biggest deal. The Brewers are hoping to catch the Cubs for the Central title. The Cardinals have to worry about missing out on the playoffs entirely if the Rockies catch them. But in the end they are still battling for something and if the Cardinals win Game 1 that'll be the big deal for the rest of the series. Ending the season the Cardinals Cubs might play out to be interesting but more likely it won't. If we get one chase still around by Friday I'll be happy.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
15 comments:
DM finally rested Soto.
I think the most exciting thing about this team in September is my change in name.
I would probably have to say deGrom has pitched the best, but it's much harder to hit homers in Citi Field than Nats Park. DeGrom gets a lot more ground balls than Scherzer, so he probably doesn't use much of that advantage, but for Max, Nats Park has actually rated as a plus power park in recent years, something like #5 for DC vs. #21 in NYC this season. I do feel like Scherzer has actually been a little unlucky with homers this year. And being a flyball/K pitcher, it doesn't help that the OF defense behind him has been bad, especially when they started playing Harper in center. They don't call misplays errors out there too often. Clearly, that has to be true, because the Nats have the fewest errors in the MLB and are still below average defensively. But I'm not going to parse the play-by-play of his starts to see how often he had to get four or more outs in an inning.
Scherzer does lead NL starters in SIERA, which pretty much nobody seems to use, much less consider when voting.
blovy8 - I know! I was actually hoping he'd wait until 162 to make it the most unfuriating.
I know the HRs aren't exactly fair, but I'd say more that deGrom's been lucky than Max's been unlucky. These HR totals are pretty typical for Max. I bet you are right about the D but you gotta throw up your hands at stuff like that. I mean the Mets IF D is pretty mediocre as well.
DT - WHAT?! There goes my pacemaker.
I really want Max to win. But, unfortunately, he's not going to win. DeGrom was better this year. Although Max had a lower BA against then DeGrom, the home runs hurt Max. I don't think it's simply the difference between Citi Field and Nats Park. (Maybe someone could compare the HR rates for Max and deGrom on the road -- I'm sure deGrom still comes out way ahead.) Max is a fly ball pitcher; deGrom is a brutal ground ball pitcher. And Max made some awful pitches this year. Maybe deGrom made some awful pitches as well, but I only saw him pitch a few times -- and he rarely missed his spot.
Two more starts for Max left fellas. Let's see what happens. I still think if he gets to 19 wins 310K and a lower WHIP he will do it.
But, I have a Scherzer game worn jersey so I'm more than a bit biased.
Froggy, unless Jake gets shelled in his last start, Max isn't winning it this year (unless he throws a no-hitter in one of those starts)!!
Not that it matters but I think there can still be a race Harper and if we are lucky maybe even a tiebreaker game next Monday and if we are really lucky next Tuesday too.
Brewers, unless they get swept by the Cardinals will get 1 of the 2 Wildcards, but even if they do get swept they get the Tigers at home to end the year. 3 wins should get them a Wildcard.
Cards play @ the Cubs after the Brewers series. Lets say the Cards finish 4-2 that gets them to 91-71
Dodgers play the lifeless D'Backs and the Giants both on the road. A 4-2 record for them gets them to 91-71.
Rockies in order to tie the Dodgers in the West would have to finish 6-1. I don't see the Phillies giving them much of a challenge seeing as they lost to the Gwinnett AAA Braves with Nola on the mound Sunday, but the Nats might. Will the Nats want to make that trip with 1 foot out the door already?? 7 straight evens even all at home is tough to ask. And also, if you are a Nats fan that wants someone different from the Dodgers winning the division, is it wrong to hope the Rockies win that weekend?? I mean, its not like the Nats are playing for anything but spoiler and draft position. What's your stance on that Harper?? I won't actively root against them, but let's just say if its tied in the 9th I may just want the game to end there.
Harper - saw your post on Twitter:
"Anyone else very upset the Flyers mascot is named “Gritty” but looks nothing like a short, white, light-hitting, middle infielder?"
This might be a picture of a young Gritty:
http://images10.newegg.com/ProductImage/A00Y_1_20131209357174323.jpg
(I'm not on the twitter which is why I post this here)
Scherzer still has a CG SHO in him. with no playoffs to hold anything back for (not that he EVER holds anything back) he'll be going at 120%. problem is... Degrom has that in him too. question for the offseason... do the Nats make a valiant effort to lock up Rendon??? i really really hope they do. even more so than Bryce, who I love. i just am a bigger fan of Tony 2 Bags and think he's better value at a lower cost
Max - I'm rooting for a Brewers NL Central, a Rockies NL West. I like the Dodgers more than Cubs/Cardinals, so I'd want them in the WC, other team doesn't matter there.
I’m guessing that the reaction of about 98% of our fanbase to the news that Jayson Werth just plead guilty to DUI will be to just ignore it and pretend that it didn’t happen.
If there’s one thing I’ve learned from living in the D.C. area for almost 25 years, it’s that people around here don’t deal with reality very well.
@Anon
I wish it would puncture the Werth bubble. He was actually a bit of cantankerous bastard, so of course he complained about people not doing their job because he was cranky. He gave journalists good quotes. That's it. While people give Bryce crap for "branding" or whatever, they ignore the fact that they liked Werth for the beard, the weird slide-stops, and the premise of giving 110% (which translates to 80% of what an good player gives and at best 50% of what Bryce contributed even while jogging on routine groundouts).
On a more positive note: 300 Ks for Scherzer. That's a cool thing.
@ Annon, are you a Catholic priest or something, so what? He got a DUI (driving under the influence of vapors) and plead guilty. He owned up to it.
Jayson Werth doesn't play baseball for the Nats (or anyone else) anymore. I'm not really clear as to what you expect commenters here to say on the matter, Anon.
Post a Comment