3 Week Status
Record: 71-72
Ground gained/lost in division last wk : +1 games to PHI, +0.5 games to ATL
Ground gained/lost in WC race last wk : 0 to STL, -2 MIL, 0 LAD, -2.5 PIT, -1 COL, +1 ARI
HOW BAD IS THIS LEAGUE? The Nats actually gained ground last week and didn't play well. It's maddening really. But this is the last update. The Nats haven't gained any significant ground in the division since dropping to 7 games out during the "injury guys can't play" into "one-run loss massacre" time frame of late June early July. They haven't been factors in the WC race for 3+ weeks now. At this point they are out of time. The magic number for the Braves over the Nats is a bad day away from single digits. The Wild Card is a near impossibility. This is the dead man walking.
CY RACE
Scherzer : 17-6 2.31 ERA, 0.883 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9 (2.66 FIP)
deGrom 8-8 1.68 ERA, 0.963 WHIP, 11.0 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.4 HR/9 (2.07 FIP)
Nola : 16-4 2.29 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 (2.87 FIP)
deGrom pitches tonight and didn't pitch last week. Scherzer had an impressive game vs the Cubs but everything but HR/9 nudge in the wrong direction. Oh and wins. Got a win. So did Nola but against the Mets it doesn't register like that Cubs game did. Still anyone's game but I have to think Nola is losing any chance to make up ground. Not that he hasn't pitched well but if Max isn't going to falter then Nola needs to be spectacular.
ROY RACE
Soto : .298 / .416 / .506 16 HR, 2 SB, 56 RBI
Acuna : .293 / .367 / .581 25 HR, 14 SB, 53 RBI
I hate to say it but Acuna might be separating here. He's drawn 8 walks in the past week to really push up the OBP. Along with that he's hit 2 more homers (5 XBH) and stole three more bases. Everyday Juan has been limited in his ABs thanks to the rain but hasn't been able to rachet up the power in a long time. He's nearing 50% of his time now running a line like .275 / .400 / .400 which on one hand is an incredible amount of patience, but on the other isn't going to win a lot of ROY votes over a guy slugging near .600.
Boz wrote an article this weekend saying "Keep Davey". It's a fair take, in my opinion. Davey was the wrong guy to take over a team and task with winning it all. Inexperience does not jive with a plan that wants to squeak out wins where they couldn't before. But a one-year experienced manager motivating a young team to try to make the playoffs? Or riding out a couple resetting years and then getting a judgment at the end of year 3? Those aren't indefensible. Do I fire Davey Martinez? Well yes. But they I have no compunction in re-hiring Dusty or throwing money at Girardi. Also I hate the camel schtick. But I'm not going to go crazy if he's here on Opening Day 2019.
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32 comments:
I hate to say it, but I agree with Boz. I don't like Davey as a manager, I think based on his performance this year, his ceiling is likely your average run-of-the-mill manager. But who are the Nats going to go out and get? Harper is right, they won't shell out the money for Girardi and Dusty's bridge is burned. Do you hire another unproven manager? Hell no
Article idea: how about an article comparing Alex Cora, Aaron Boone, and Davey Martinez? If all those guys landed different jobs at the start of this season, how would that change how the season played out? Would the Red Sox still be good with Martinez? Would the Nats still have been bad with Cora? Interested to get people's thoughts on this
I'll say it again: I think Martinez's hiring was with 2019 in mind, in anticipation of the beckoning pastures of free agency luring away the pillars of their recent success. (I cannot believe the Nats' brain trust seriously expected a Championship in 2018.)
Martinez was given a mulligan this year to see how he'd adjust to his first managerial gig. The baleful scrutiny of the team's front office and its fans will be focused on Martinez from Day 1 of Spring Training. The 2019 Nats will be more his team than the 2018 Nats, and he'll probably have until the All-Star Break to prove he can do something worthwhile with it.
If not, he'll be replaced by . . . by . . . Tripp Keister! The current Potomac manager, under whose watchful eyes every Nat prospect since 2012 (beginning in the Gulf Coast League) has passed, had this to say earlier this year:
"There's twenty-five guys on our roster and they're all like my sons."
The Nats will finally get the Daddy they need in clubhouse, and--hey, there, Mr. Lerner-- he'll come cheap. More importantly? The best name ripe for parody in Major League Baseball.
Brother
Where is that unrelenting optimism? Nineteen in a row gets them in the playoffs. Where is Max David when we need him?
I'm not buying the SM theory above that Martinez was a 2019 hire. We had a legit chance for the playoffs and no owner, even the Lerner's throw that away.
I'm in the fire Davey camp. He demonstrate an inability to motivate the club. As I mentioned before all you have to do is look at the body language of the team and you knew they gave up on the season in July. the results were a foregone conclusion if you could read the signs. If Davey couldn't motivate them this year, why should we expect him to discover this skill next year. He won't but the Lerner's will keep him on because he was cheap and they don't want to pay two managers.
The Learners were given this franchise by MLB. They didn't earn it. They are real estate people which means they are bottom line people. They aren't going to run an operating loss to win a championship. RE people aren't built to think like that.
Leonsis was willing to suffer operating losses because he made his money by selling companies and by owning stock. In other words he didn't work for it. Therefore, he doesn't mind spending it.
Decimating the club to save 17 million is dumb unless you get under the cap. Fans need to understand how the Learners think and operate. We are only going to the World Series if everything falls in place which is a nice way of saying don't expect any costly free agent adds at the trade deadline.
Bro, you are missing out here. The season is over and most people have left you. The Redskins looked SUPER yesterday...shades of Gibbs were rekindled. I'm telling you that you need to change this to a Redskin site before you miss out. It is all about traffic. It doesn't matter that you don't know any thing about football.
You need to learn from the Learners, it is always about location, location, location.
Ground gained/lost in division last wk : +1 games to PHI, +0.5 games to ATL
CLOSING THE GAP!
Ssln, I'm really trying to figure out how you came to the conclusion that Harper still thinks the team has a chance.
I thought one of the reasons for not rehiring old school Baker and hiring new school Martinez was to have a more pliable manager. Someone who would accept organizational guidance in areas that were once considered manager turf.
I am surprised to learn in Boswell's article and other Washington Post articles that the bullpen had to educate Davey on proper bullpen handling. Its great that the bullpen spoke up. Its great that the Davey listened to their suggestions and changed his ways. However, I am curious why the organization didn't bring this to Davey's attention sooner? Isn't there anybody within the organization helping Davey out?
If I were running the team, I would want a managerial team. This team might have a wonk guy, a pitching expert, a hitting expert, a grizzly old school ex-vet that eats tobacco chew for dinner, and the manager himself. They would meet nearly every day to discuss the general plan for the upcoming game and review the prior game. Why didn't Davey's poor bullpen handling ever come up in a managerial staff meeting? Seems like Davey is left on an island all by himself to manage the team.
@ Anonymous 3:01
Wait, what? Organizational guidance? That would suggest there's a "National Way," like a Dodger Way or Oriole Way.
But guess what? Tripp Keister is the only organizational figure I've found who consistently talks about the "Nationals Way" (plural no less!) of developing player skills, especially plate discipline, pitch recognition and bunting drills. (He loves strikeouts by his pitchers, HATES them by his batters.)
(Don't know what he thinks about real estate barons, though. Maybe if he forced the Lerners to spend a couple of hours in sliding drills they wouldn't be so fond of their real estate.)
Oh, yeah: Those grizzled old-timers don't chew and spit their Red Man into styrofoam cups anymore. They vape now.
Robot
We are having a communication problem. I never said Harper still thinks the team has a chance. I did make a remark about his unrelenting optimism but apparently you didn't get the joke. That was the title of one of his articles back in August when most of thought the team was already out of it.
I'm probably going to have to write a Cliff's Notes version to all my posts or people are going to have to step up their game and figure out all the inside jokes I'm making. My guess is that it will be the Cliff Notes version to solve the problem
Anon
I hate to tell you this but the organizational chart you laid out already exists in baseball. There is something called a pitching coach and hitting coach and bench coach that are supposed to help a manager with the items you listed. If we gave them the titles you listed rather than their current titles maybe you would recognize the organizational structure.
Robot
The Cliff notes version of my post above.
Harper did a post on Aug. 17 entitled Relentless Optimism in which he tried to pump up the crowd by saying the Nats were still in it.
The post started off with the following quote. As long as the Nats are in it, why not choose to go with it.
My post above was a reference to the Aug. 17 post by Harper. Hope that helps everybody.
Robot,
I think it is time for a Fourth Law to be added to Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics:
1) A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2) A robot must obey orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3) A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
New 4th law: Sarcastic Robots cannot harm sarcastic commentators who do not get sarcasm from robots talking about sarcastic baseball situations.
...or something like that.
PS: Robot, how do you answer the reCAPTCHA question "I am not a robot" when in fact you are a robot?
When Cliff Notes sarcasm and sarcastic robot worlds collide on a baseball blog!
[On Dave's return to the ship, after HAL has killed the rest of the crew] "Look Dave, I can see you're really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over. I know I've made some very poor decisions recently, but I can give you my complete assurance that my work will be back to normal. I've still got the greatest enthusiasm and confidence in the mission. And I want to help you."
Wouldn’t it be classic Nats if they swept the Phillies (if any games in that series get played with all the rain forecast) and the Braves, gave me false hope even though they’d still be 3+ back probably, and than went 1-5 in the next 6 games against the Marlins & Reds?? I think time has run out, Braves look like they’ll be winning again so that will now be no better than 2.5 out if everything goes our way after Sunday. Apparantly I'm still dreaming and in fantasy land, but I'm still holding off on conceding the division. Lose the series to the Phillies (even if the Braves drop the next 2 to San Fran), it's over. Lose the series to the Braves?? Definitely over. Win both series, but lose a game in each series?? Probably over. Sweep 1 series, and win the other series?? Depends on what they do in that Cubs makeup game, and who they swept, but still not good but better than the alternative. Sweep both series but lose the Cubs makeup game?? Still kicking, but probably too late. Sweep both series and win the Cubs makeup game?? Too little too late, but by this point they'll probably pass the Phillies in the standings, and will at least give the Braves some pressure.
Max
You covered the entire waterfront two times or so. I'm tired just reading what you wrote. Let's make this simple. They need to go 18-1 to make the playoffs.
jibe not jive
ROBOT - HERE COMES THE NATS!!!!!!!!
"I hate to tell you this but the organizational chart you laid out already exists in baseball. There is something called a pitching coach and hitting coach and bench coach that are supposed to help a manager with the items you listed. If we gave them the titles you listed rather than their current titles maybe you would recognize the organizational structure."
If such an organizational structure exists, wouldn't that mean that some of the rookie managerial mistakes were not Martinez mistakes but mistakes of the Nationals organization? Why didn't somebody advise Martinez that he was arranging for too many bullpen warm ups? Why didn't somebody advise Martinez that he was leaving in starting pitchers too long? Seems like these kinds of discussions aren't actually occurring.
One, I agree with an earlier Robot post - the Nats are going 19-0 to win the division. They haven't won 19 in a row this year, so they must be due. I also predict an undefeated post season as well. So that is ending the season as World Series champs on a 28 game win streak. That type of run would make the Caps proud. "We not going to be suck this year." to quote Alexander Ovechkin. Also to quote Harper and Robot, "Hear come the Nats." (Cliff Notes - please note this post is an example of sarcasm)
Anonymous, what are you arguing about? A manager has a coaching staff that advises him on decision making that he ultimately takes responsibility for... because he's the manager. Defensive coordinator wanted to run the ball, they should have passed, head coach takes the blame. It's why people in charge get paid to big bucks: to filter opinions into actionable items that they themselves deem successful. I can't believe I had to just explain that.
... Anyway... I'm skeptical of Liliquist's impact on the staff. It seems like he doesn't connect with them the way Maddox used to. Same deal with Martinez. We knew Dusty was good at that. Could be wrong, and again we don't know for sure, but its always sounds like Martinez is looking for friendship with his players rather than commanding respect. Hard to do that as a first year manager I suppose. So what are you to do? Keep it fun, keep it loose. Trust your guys and they will trust you. That's what I see in our dugout, as well as in Boston and New York with Cora and Boone. Just not working here. Don't understand it.
Anon
You are suffering from FFM..fallacy of the forgotten middle. Your point was that if an organizational structure exists,then the rookie manager mistakes weren't on Davey but on the other coaches. Possibly, but you are assuming that they didn't give him good advice. It is equally possible that they gave him good advice and he chose to ignore it. We didn't sit in the meetings o we don't know what was or wasn't discussed. My advise is don't make assumptions either way.
Ultimately, as PBN says the buck stops with the manager.
Jay
I hate to bust your bubble here, but if they win 28 straight that doesn't guarantee a World Series victory. There are 19 games left in the year. The first post season series is best of 5 so you need 3 wins. The next two are best 4 out of seven so you need 8 more wins. Eight plus three is eleven, not nine.
Hey Bro
You need to change this site to a Redskin site. Trust me when I tell you that no one will even notice. People don't even know how many games you have to win in the post season.
Keep it simple. Tell everyone the key is running the ball 55% of the time and pound them early. By the fourth quarter, the defense will be tired and you can grind out the first downs. The passing game works off the run game. Pound them early, force the linebackers to play the run and then dump the ball to the receivers in the vacated area behind the LB. It worked for Gibbs and can work again.
That is all you need to say and you will look like a genius.
Lets examining some possible range of outcomes:
- The Nationals don't have processes in place for planning/evaluating/reviewing/improving coaching decisions.
- Martinez managerial staff was negligent and failed to advise Martinez on the rookie mistakes he was making, particularly in the area of pitching.
- Despite seeking a more pliable manager, the Nationals hired a stubborn rookie manager who ignored the advice of the organization and repeatedly made sub-optimal decisions.
The first one seems the most likely to me. The last one seems least likely. As was pointed out, we didn't sit in the meetings to know what was or wasn't discussed. Is there any reasonable explanation that I have not considered that doesn't reflect so poorly on either the Nationals or Martinez?
The late Harlan Ellison once wrote a short story about a robot torturing the last man on earth.
@ssln: you forgot the importance of winning the turnover battle. And please, no.
1 down 6 to go
I do math with my calculator app. Autocorrect let me down. That means that they have to win 31 in a row. I still believe. 1 down 30-0 to go!! (again sarcasm)
I remember posting I think 3 weeks ago how this Phillies team was awful....well sure enough they suck! They are like the Nats, with a few differences. They both have 1.5 starting pitchers with almost nothing after Arrieta & Strasburg in the rotation with Arrieta being better than Strasburg, but Roark being better than anything the Phillies have. Nats starting lineup, when healthy is better than the Phillies starting lineup. But the main difference from the Phillies to the Nats is their bullpen is God awful, it makes the Nats bullpen look like the Oakland A's bullpen! I have no idea how their record was as good as it was, smoke & mirrors or a total fluke?? If I really wanted to be bold I'd say they finish the season in 4th in the division, but the schedule is short enough where they should just be able to hold off the Mets for 3rd, but no way is this team finishing any higher than 3rd. I know Nola is pitching tomorrow, but they had no business winning game 2 with Arrieta and they did off of that bullpen, get him out, win the game, and sweep the series!
2 games down this week, 6 games to go this week, and we'll go from there!
Max
I hope they can keep this streak going just so I can read your unbridled optimism. You will probably be figuring out ways they can qualify for the playoffs even after they are mathematically eliminated.
Go for it!
@Max the Phillies' record is 4 games better than their Pythag, and 2 better than their BaseRuns. So they have gotten some positive variance.
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