This is how things are going. Admitting anything less is delusional. The Nats are closing in on Memorial day fighting for the worst record out of the non-historically embarrasing teams. Chances for a division title are dying, playoffs is slim, and even .500 is no longer guaranteed.
If the Nats are to give it up and pack it in (which they could very easily in a week) what do they have to offer?We say "OH they can trade Rendon for a bundle!" but the new MLB doesn't value production as much as it values cost and control and Rendon is a FA next year with a decent contract number which lowers his value.
The good news for the Nats is that they rarely sign bad contract so there is barely anyone you look at his deal and say"untradable". The bad news for the Nats is they don't have a ton of players who are seen as good and are doing well right now (that they'd want to trade anyway). Let's start down this road!
We're assuming the goal is to be good in the 2022 range and that means keeping Turner, Robles, Soto, Strasburg and Corbin who are all in contol to (and past) that year.
FAs after this year
Rendon is the prize here providing solid D and a great bat. The 18.8 million isn't too bad when cut to part of a season but it's not ignorable either. Kendrick is also a nice piece for a team to have as he still hits and has at least flexibility in name. Dozier might bring back something. Parra should be traded now. Hellickson is worthless right now.
FA with a team option for next year
Doolittle comes in here and that contract (7 mill this year, 6 million or 500k! buyout next) is super favorable. I can see Doolittle bring back more than Rendon. Zimm and Rosenthal are like Hellickson. Matt Adams, if he can come back and hit, might bring back the most. Or perhaps Gomes, given a non oppressive 9 million 1 mill buyout for anyone needing a catcher and willing to take a chance. Sipp might alos bring back something. Eaton is interesting as if you like him he's cheap through 2021. But there seems to be baggage here and his performance this year isn't making anyone more interested in him.
FA after next year
Suzuki would probably be a good answer for anyone needing a catcher. MAT is still under arbitration right now and his value is probably a bit too high given he's stopped hitting.
FA with a team option after next year.
Anibal Sanchez is the only one who has only this and he worhtless. Gomes and Eaton also have options for 2021 (along with options for 2020) which make them fun gambles if you like them but again not sure anyone does right now. You are selling low on both.
FA after 2021
The last batch of guys you'd consider dealing. The control value here is high. You know you have these guys under control. Max is the elephant in the room here. I don't know how you can trade him. He's basically become the Nats in his time here, but the fact is he's probably not going to be along for the next window. Barraclough with his cheap current deal (1.73M) and being under arbitration would get back something, especially if he can have a little run here. Ross might be interesting if he can ever stay healthy. Time your decent healthy run right Joe!
If the Nats deal I see Doolittle bringing in the most. Max would pass him, even with that contract, if the Nats can part with him. Rendon, FA to be slips in right behind that. Suzuki and Kendrick would bring back something interesting. Right now nearly everyone else that could be dealt (Adams, Sipp, Eaton, MAT, Gomes, Barraclough) would be a sell low situation and have a more limited return.
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45 comments:
Depressing. :(
What's the earliest you've officially "called" a season Harp? I'm saying the Nats are all but done now. Get swept today and I'm calling it.
Can we say the trade for Eaton ended up being the worst in Nats history? Boswell has finally turned on Martinez now. Article from today states Martinez is a nice guy but a bad manager with no idea what he is doing with the pitching staff. They are on pace to lose 98. Inconceivable.
I love them both, but I'd deal Max and Rendon because the Nats farm system is barren at the upper levels and they're just missing too many pieces to feel like they're close to competing. Honestly, I think they could deal Max, Rendon, Kendrick and Matt Adams once he comes back and if he hits and still compete in the NL Least next year. That being said, I doubt that happens.
More likely is that they deal Kendrick, Adams (again) and any relievers someone wants, other than Doolittle, but those guys aren't going to bring much in return and in 2020 the Nats will be hoping for bounceback seasons from Sanchez and others along with A NEW MANAGER!!!, while Rendon is playing in some other city. I'm sorry, but the Nats need a new GM who can do a better job of managing the ownership group and who can build a bullpen and hire a manager. Yes, the ownerhsip group is super cheap when it comes to hiring managers, but look at all the relatively inexperienced managers other teams have hired who have worked since Riggleman.
The Nats still have some really good pieces: Soto, Robles, Turner, Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin. That's almost enough, maybe more than enough, for a .500 team. If they can re-sign Rendon (I'm not confident they are trying hard enough to do so), they have a team that is good enough to make a run for the playoffs - but IF, and ONLY IF, they can build something around that core that is better (and healthier) than what they had this year. Losing Doo will be tough, but he'll bring a good return. Everyone else can go, although they won't bring much. I think the Nats should use the Zim money, and the money they didn't spend on Harper, to build a better bullpen. With a bit of luck, they could get lucky with a free agent 2B. Not sure what they do about SP 4 and SP 5. Maybe Fedde can be a 4 or 5. Trading Roark indirectly for Sanchez was a disaster. Giving up Gonzalez (who had to go) for Hellickson didn't work either. If Nats re-sign Rendon, they can do a partial re-build for 2020 and definitely 2021.
@ Anonymous, this Mets series is a 4 gamer. Can't get swept today - maybe tomorrow!!
Anon - June 23rd. I went back and looked it up
2012 - 9/5
2013 - 9/9
2014 - 9/4
2015 - 9/10
2016 - 8/15
2017 - 6/23
2018 - 8/16
I'm usually too conservative for most.
Jay - yes probably BUT that's injury related more than talent right now (we'll see how the pitchers dealt turn out)
JWL - I don't disagree but I also don't think there are a lot of GMs out there that fit that bill and more importantly that the Lerners would hire. The owners have to choose to be controlled.
PF - They could easily be back next year assuming the Phillies and Braves stay relatively put. If either continues to move forward (the Phillies with one more pitching move, the Braves with... well we'll see what they need) then it forces the Nats to do even more. Really hit it out of the park with SP4, etc. Otws, the Nats will look like a 3rd place team. A good one, but a third place team nonetheless.
Sad to think about trade value already, but it is certainly relevant, given how the season has been going.
I think the Nats look OK in 2020, as previous commenters have pointed out. In the offseason, it seems like they can sign Rendon, promote Kieboom to starting 2B (he is hitting again in AAA), and use the remaining money from the expiring Dozier/Rosenthal/Zim/Kendrick/Blanton contracts to build up the bullpen and any other holes that need to be plugged. Remember, 2019 is a 'reset' year for the payroll in terms of luxury tax, so if they want to go over it next year, it won't be as onerous.
I think Rizzo should stay. The Nats have a Top-5 MLB record this decade. Sure, they've had some breaks and Rizzo had some good things to work with from the previous crew, but overall, he's done well and deserves to stay. Not sure who would actually be an upgrade that would be available in the offseason. Nats need to have several more bad seasons before Rizzo should get fired. I don't think Rizzo is the big issue with the Nats
Remember, Rizzo wanted to bring Dusty back. If Dusty was still here, maybe things wouldn't have been any better, and we'd still be talking about Rizzo's job. But it just as easily could have been 1.25 more good seasons with Dusty, and then we would look at Rizzo and say, 'What a fine GM!'
Honest question: do teams actively look to develop middle inning relievers? Seems like it's either starter or closer, and those who fail get thrown into the miscellaneous-arm bucket. From a major league development standpoint - if I can get my armchair GM on for a moment - I would buy starters (by trade or FA) and develop the crap out of guys who can go all out for two innings, regardless of situation. Carry extra pitchers and fewer position players at AA and AAA for this purpose. Maybe this is happening already but it doesn't seem like it.
Well, the extension talks are certainly are done, and Rizzo should just stick a value on Rendon until some team gets desperate enough to meet his price. He also may have a higher value on Doolittle than many trading partners would, as Doo has become a pretty good spokesman for the club with the comments about how the team is willing to spend on players and tweaking Maddon while his manager shines the dugout rail with his forearms.
Everyone needs bullpen guys to an extent, but the elephant in the room in 10 days is going to be Kimbrel. DM could go soon if they're swept by the Mets, but is it a good idea to fire him during the season, or just leave him as a lame duck through the rest of the year while the deals are being made? My money would be on the Lerners trying to get their money's worth. I agree that it's a good idea to not expect the Lerners to pay the price for a good GM/President of Operations if they won't for a field manager. Mark Lerner was been a barrier to start dealing players soon enough last year, so I wonder when this overhaul will get his okay. The club has been sending some desperate sounding emails, trying to get more fans this year, it makes me wonder if they'll give up early enough to get the most value.
@Cracka Is Dusty better than DM? Absolutely. Is Dusty a good manager? In some aspects yes, in others no. He's great with players, but his bullpen management--while much better than DM--wasn't great either. In the end, despite the constraints, Rizzo has failed to find someone to manage the club during his tenure and his lack of success in the draft after players taken in the first round, is really bad for someone who's strength is supposed to be scouting.
Now, if they fire Rizzo, is there a chance it could get worse? Absolutely. Also, if he stays there's a chance he gets better. We're not internal so it's really hard to say, however, from the outside looking in, I think it's tough, but he needs to go.
I agree JE. I'm all for getting young, failed starters and turning them into potential threats out of the pen. Typically its guys who throw hard but only have one other out pitch. Two plus-pitches isn't enough to navigate a lineup multiple times through, but can certainly be effective for a few hitters. That's why Joe Ross confuses me. A decent fastball and slider, nothing else. Should be great in the pen right? Apparently not, which is frustrating.
Heard on the radio today, a caller talking about guys who sucked in DC flourishing once they leave, and guys who were good elsewhere then come to DC and suck. I can't speak for all players but I can say the majority of pitchers are creatures of habit and rely on a lot of direction and coaches telling them what to do in every capacity of their play (from PT, to pre-game stretches, to pitch calling, etc.) There is something off about our player development, yes,but its also our lack of preparation as a whole, top down, especially on the pitching side. If this is indeed Rizzo's fault (if there was a way to know for sure), that would be a perfect reason to fire him. Like now. That stuff is cancer.
Harper, regarding what @Ole PBN heard on the radio today:
If Hellickson, Zimm and Rosenthal are worthless right now--I'm not disagreeing--who would want them?
But if some teams do acquire them--Zimm's no-trade clause notwithstanding--is it possible said teams could transform them into something worthwhile?
I think we all expect too much. Have you watched the Wizards? Decades long dumpster fire. The Redskins? Same thing. And lots of teams in baseball.
The Nats record since 2010 has been terrific. It's hard to maintain that. Rizzo has been an excellent general manager. He's made good draft picks and good trades, while dealing with a moderately difficult owner. There is no way the Nats are going to get a better GM, because a GM with a star pedigree isn't coming to DC to work for the Lerners.
Last year, the Lerners prevented Harper from being dealt at the trade deadline because (1) they thought he would sign with the team and (2) attendance. This year is very different. The Lerners are fools if they think that attendance will stay strong if they don't make improvements. They are fools if they think the Nats can make the playoffs this year. So, I think you'll see a player dump at the trade deadline. I just hope that they are smart enough to sign Rendon before the trade deadline. If not, they have to trade him, although they'll never get adequate value in return.
They certainly don't seem to be preparing well on defense either. Gomes can't remember what pitches he called, Dozier tries to fake guys out before he even catches the ball, Parra seemingly forgets he's allowed to put his glove into the stands to catch a foul, and an opposing pitcher can bunt at will knowing our infielders will react like they were in beanbag chairs when the play started.
I bet somebody grabs Hellickson and turns him into a terrific 2 to 3 inning middle reliever.
Potomac, I want to believe that, but attendance already stinks and they are all about the greenbacks. Maybe the salary aspect will convince them this year. There's a good chance they won't treat Rendon like Harper, but imagine the product that will be out there in mid-July. It would look like a Marlins crowd if not for all the opposing fans showing up. I'm out of there if Rizzo makes a plea to Phillies fans like Kasten did.
If Rizzo and/or the Lerners have ANY hope that this year is still salvageable, DM needs to be gone tomorrow. I don't know if he's lost the clubhouse, but he seems to have lost all confidence and is managing moment to moment with little or no plan. If we are to figure anything out, we need to do so with a new manager. Listening to DM's post-game last night convinced me he has no confidence left.
You gotta trade Doo. Good contract and under control for 2020. That's great for teams looking for a closer. And that's another reason to jettison DM asap. He's managing to save his job, and that can lead to decisions that wind up hurting pitchers and trade value. I'd also bite the bullet and trade Max. The Nats need to do what the Astros and Braves did but Giants did not do. Tear down quickly and efficiently, build up your farm, sign young stars long term, and add vets in two/three years when you are ready to contend. I'd hate to see Max go, and doubt the Lerners have the vision to trade him, but he might net you someone good. Don't get why Nats are botching the Rendon negotiations, unless they no longer trust Boras. They seem to like spending on SP only post-Werth. Signing Rendon and extending Soto, Robles, and Turner would send a good sign to fans.
DM will be okay as bench coach again somewhere else. He just can't lead a team like this, not with the combination of expectations, injuries, and personnel issues. He was supposed to learn on the job? Such a bad idea for a team expected to "go deep into the playoffs."
Hellickson would be a decent middle reliever, or least would have been last year, perhaps not now. The problem is the team wants him to start.
I don't think the team can get much of anything for Zim at this point - old, injured, expensive, bad at the plate and in the field.
Robot: Yeah, Zim should really consider retiring. Boswell was beating the drum for keeping him on reduced salary next year, but his health is just not there anymore. I read somewhere it takes trainers about 1.5 to 2 hours every day just to get him ready to play. He no longer has a major league body. 2017 fooled us all, but that was a blip in a six-year decline. He gave it all, and it's time to call it a day.
Hey the Indians just DFA'd CarGo...with him and Parra, Rizzo will et what he wanted 2 or 3 years ago, but couldn't...
IF they wanted to retool the farm system, Doo & Max should be the 2 guys that go because they will get the most talent back in return. This season is all but kaput. I think the only way it stays somewhat salvageable is if they find a way to go 6-0 the next 6 (2 here in Queens to finish and a 4 game sweep against the Marlins). Anything else and you can officially stick the fork in them if you haven't already,
I wouldn't be surprised if Max is begging to be traded at this point. Yeesh!
Can't blame DM for tonight. 1-0 lead, Bear Claw gets you two outs and a guy on second. You bring in your best reliever, with 3 days rest, for a 4-out save against a team that isn't an offensive juggernaut. I don't see a major managerial flaw with that.
G Cracka - It's consistent with DM's remarkable knack for always making the wrong call, even when it seems reasonable/defensible in the moment. Williams had a similar gift.
To borrow a phrase from Old PBN - That's baseball.
Soto and Robles watching deep fly balls is getting disconcerting. Yet Rizzo said "the effort" was there. Maybe Martinez hasn't lost the clubhouse, but he's lost the ballfield.
Watching the post-game last night made me hope that the Nats will make Bo Porter our interim manager.
I'm mostly with PotomacFan on this one. This year isn't "called" yet because the rest of the division refuses to get its act together, either; the Nats are just even worse at it.
I think that Rendon has to be the lynchpin. Once again he's one of the best players in baseball--2.1 fWAR so far this year, good enough for 12th in MLB among position players despite not having enough PAs to qualify for the batting title. Rizzo and the Lerners need to make a decision here and they need to make it fast. If they lose their superstar, they aren't going to be competing in 2020 and probably not in 2021. If they bring him back, the Rendon-Turner-Soto-Robles-(possibly Kieboom)-Scherzer-Strasburg-Corbin core is as good as anybody's and can be built around.
Basically, by the end of June, Nats management needs to either have Rendon inked to an extension or accept the fact that he's not going to be back.
And by the end of June, or even before, it'll be obvious whether or not the Nats are going to have a shot at the playoffs for this year. If they resign Rendon AND go on a run to get up or near first, then Rizzo needs to go for it, being a deadline buyer (of course, if they are there, then it means that a lot of the problems will have worked themselves out--SOMEONE will have gotten good in the pen and as a back-end starter, some of Eaton/Adams/Zim/Dozier/Gomes will have found their bats, etc.).
If they resign Rendon but aren't back in reasonable contention, then Rizzo needs to sell off Kendrick, Adams, anybody that's not signed for 2020 for whatever he can get, and use the rest of the season to see if he has any functional pitching in the organization.
If they DON'T resign Rendon, then Rizzo needs to go with Harper's plan. Move Rendon himself, Doolittle, Suzuki, basically anything outside the core seven (and possibly Strasburg because of the opt-out--I think that if the Nats are saying "come back in 2021-2" I'd ask Strasburg if he WANTS to stay through the rebuild and trade him if he doesn't).
Martinez should either be fired right now (logic: he's part of the problem and IF we're going to make a run it won't be with him) or at the end of the year (logic: the organization needs to conduct a proper search for his replacement, not just grab a random body off the street or the lower ranks). The only way he should keep his job is if management decides to keep him through the end of the year and the team goes and makes the playoffs.
Bo was pretty awful managing the Astros. Be careful what you wish for. They need to get someone proven - Girardi, Showalter, etc. That requires money. We'll see if the Lerners have learned anything through the years.
Read elsewhere that the Nats have "missed the boat" on Rendon's extension. Hope not. In any case, they need to stop it with the deferred money, because that is now a big turnoff to prospective signees. Did they do that with Corbin? Do any other teams do that.
In another news, I'm hearing drumbeats for LeCroy over any other "interim" guy. Worth a try...but do we need him and his development skills in AA? He might be good for Soto/Robles and eventually Kieboom so they can keep learning in the bigs.
This is sort of kitchen sink hitting the fan kind of season, if that metaphor is even possible.
Johnny, I could be wrong on this, but I think the Lerner's offer deferred contracts because of the MASN dispute hopefully going in our favor somewhere down the line. I doubt they think the deferred money is a good strategy, but it's either that, or consider the Nats out of contention for any big FA. Scherzer's deal is deferred, Bryce's offer was too. Corbin's doesn't appear to be, though it gets progressively more expensive as he ages and its an incentive-laden contract.
This team is garbage. Leadoff triple and you fail to score a run? Seriously? That right there is a preparation issue, that's a coaching issue. DM needs to be fired IMMEDIATELY. Bring back Jayson Werth as an interim manager/clubhouse fire upper. He can't be worse than DM
Wow, the Mets TV crew is so much better than ours. Almost makes me want to become a Mets fan, if not for the rest of the organization being hot garbage.
Don't turn Nationals fandom into a pit of despair for no reason. I am concerned that if they go full rebuild, they could actually waste the prime years of their current crop of young players.
2012 was fluky in that things were not supposed to click that quickly (look at the roster, does it really look like all-in construction?). How many atrocious, unwatchable seasons should we request the team subject us to in order to roll the dice on deep playoff runs that couldn't be accomplished during the Bryce/Strasburg/Scherzer/Rendon window? That core was built on two can't-miss draft picks that required garbage records to obtain, plus another top-10 pick in Rendon (and a lucky second-rounder in Zmnn), trading prospects for Gio, and signing Max. Capps for Ramos is the only real trade a big name for a prospect move.
If Soto, Robles, Turner, and Kieboom are almost ready, why go full rebuild? If they resign Rendon, they need to pick up a couple of passable but not spectacular starters (or go all-in and get a rotation of doom), a 1B, and maybe some OF help. Keep Doolittle and get some 50-50 or better bullpen guys instead of longshots that are more likely to suck than not. That can all be done in FA or with smaller trades.
How many of these key young players actually came through trades? Only Turner, unless Joe Ross bounces back. Kieboom was drafted, and Robles+Soto were international free agents. Even then, Turner was a steal as a "player to be named later" that didn't cost a star player.
This season is over, done in somewhat by injuries but mostly by the pretty obvious and (theoretically) easily remedied problem of a trash bullpen. That doesn't take a rebuild to fix. I don't Trust the Process. I would rather have a ~.500 team with some exciting players and a chance to be good than guaranteed misery with the chance of getting fun players eventually.
Q regarding today's (Thursday) game: What's the record for the number players left on base without a team scoring?
@Kubla This is my issue with Rizzo, subtract the can't miss prospects the Nats drafted (Bryce, Strasburg & Rendon) and how many other draft picks have panned out? Kieboom maybe? I mean, the baseball draft lasts for like 20 rounds, if you were picking names out of a hat for 10 years later, eventually you'd stumble into someone that could contribute, but the Nats haven't.
I agree they don't need a full rebuild, but they need a mini-rebuild and focus on putting a winning team back on the field in 2021 because while everyone is banking on Soto and Robles, their performance this year has not been that of players you can hang your hat on. Scherzer is eventually going to decline, so to me, if you can't sign Rendon, deal Rendon, Scherzer and Doolittle, there's still a core that can be competitive in 2021 and you could rebuild an entire farm system dealing those guys.
Even when Brian Dozier does something good, he finds a way to be awful.
Remind me...wasn't "Back to Fundamentals" to theme of Spring Training? Waaaat am I watching???
I believe that the obsession with launch angle is misguided, and is sorta cancerous for this team. The launch angle thing requires one to be a good contact hitter to start with, as the bat spends less time in the plane of the oncoming ball. With runners on base, there is great value in *not striking out*. Is this team coached or prepared in any meaningful way on this point?
Dozier's bunt today is an example of smart use of the lumber... of course he managed to run into the first out of the inning at 3rd, which is not something a good team does.
I agree with Kubla - they have too many good players under control to start over.
@JE34 - The point you make has been brought up before. Batters who don't have the ability to hit the ball over the fence with any regularity (Difo comes to mind), trying a high launch angle, just put the ball to an outfielder. Or, like you mention, they strike out.
And outs with men on gets the Nats close to a LOB record for the National league (18).
Ooops. They've tied the record and they're in the T9 with one out.
Wow, this team sure can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. You almost have to make a change, if for no other reason than to shake things up.
Davey was ejected, I think that should be the way his tenure ends. Even watching him half ass argue and basically politely ask to be ejected was pathetic
Baltimore, Miami, KC, and Detroit. The Nats have the 2nd worst record in the NL and 5th worst over all. They are going to be 10 out of first by the end of the day. The season is over and it's not even Memorial day yet. Wow.
I honestly believe if you were a hypothetical GM for the hypothetical Las Vegas Outlaws expansion team and in your first season in the league you said out loud to yourself "This season is probably going to be rough, so I want people to remember our season. I'm going to assemble the worst collection of relievers I possibly can, and hope to set all kinds of pitching records for futility when the season ends" and that hypothetical scenario would STILL be better than this collection of arms coming through the bullpen gate. THAT is why I want Rizzo fired.
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