The biggest Q from yesterday is why use Doolittle in a
On with the season! The Nats are being saved by their utterly disappointing division, but as we talked about a couple days ago, it would take a very strong finish still to end up in the playoffs. But what would that take. Here's my quick set of necessities for the Nats to make that 120 game run.
1) No Injury Issues - there's a lot of ways this could fall. You don't want Gomes and Suzuki out at the same time for instance. But really I narrow it down to two things - 1) None of the Big 3 starters go down for a long time and 2) Never again this season do the Nats have 2 of these 3 batters out - Rendon, Soto, & Turner.
2) Rendon is Rendon and someone hits like a star behind him. Any good line-up needs at least two big bats in it and the Nats are struggling to find that 2nd one after Rendon. Ideally it would be Soto but he's flailing right now, striking out 40+% more than last year. But it doesn't have to be Soto. Kendrick could keep this up (I guess, I'm not betting on it). Robles could round out. Turner could have his best year at the plate* Someone could surprise. But it needs to happen
3) Almost everyone else just do what you are supposed to. It does't have to be everyone but take a look around and the disappointments (Gomes, Zimmerman, Dozier, Difo, Soto, Robles?, Eaton, Adams, Taylor) way outnumber the guys just hitting expectations (Suzuki, Robles?) or surpassing it (Rendon, Kendrick). These numbers have to fall more in line. A couple guys ok. That happens. 2/3rd of your offense? That can't be overcome.
4) The Big 3 have to pitch like it. The results aren't there but so far they are pitching how they should be. Keep it up
5) Either the 4 spot or the 5 spot has to be not garbage. RIght now Sanchez has been bad and Hellickson worse. If you are asking your Top 3 to win like 70% of the games they pitch you can't have it undone by the bottom 2 losing 70%. At least one of these spots has to become a 50/50 proposition.
6) The bullpen needs another 95% reliable arm. Kimbrel would do it. Of course they aren't going to get Kimbrel because why pay that money when if any of the above 5 things don't work out it would be "wasted". So someone needs to step up and be good. Maybe it's one inning Fedde. Maybe Suero gets his act together. Maybe Barraclough steps up. I don't know. It would be kind of a surprise.
7) The bullpen needs to clamp down on inherited runners. This is different from the #6 thing because that's about shutting down late inning. Here the Nats just need to get to normal on letting inherited runners score. Right now they lead the majors with 42% of runners scoring. The average is about 30%. Given the imperfections of the back of the rotation and the rest of the pen, runners are going to be out there. They need to at least stop waving them around and giving opponents those extra 1-2 runs a game.
8) Play Better Defense - The Nats aren't suddenly going to become a good defensive team. They lack a lot of range in the OF and on the right side of the IF. But cut down on the errors. Position better maybe. Get in the normal area of bad team defense and out of the "ooooh" place you are in now.
There you go. Do these 8 things, hell maybe 7 of 8, and I think the Nats can pull out that swing they need.
*I think one year Turner will hit like .320 with 25 homers, 9 3Bm 25 2Bs and steal 40 bases and be a mini-star. One year.
27 comments:
Obvs the plan with Doolittle the past couple days is to have Max throw 150 pitches tonight.
The fact that Martinez has only has one reliever he trusts to hold a four run lead is a testament to just how badly Rizzo screwed up this offseason. If he puts in another guy and the guy blows the game, we’re all talking once again about stupid he is.
I’m not a Martinez fan, but he really has been put in almost a no-win situation here.
For me, the biggest keys are 1, 2, and 4, and really, 4 is the path to success. The Nats currently have three of the top 15 pitchers by fWAR, including number 1 (Max) and number 5 (Stras). Getting ordinary (for them) performances three out of every five games should be enough on its own to move the team slowly toward .500. The quality at the top of the Nats' rotation is what separates them from other teams.
If the team is going to be better than .500, however, some of the other things need to happen. It's not clear to me that being much better than .500 is necessary to winning the NL East, though. Only the Braves have a positive BaseRuns on the season. The Phillies have been spectacularly lucky on sequencing so far this year (they are plus-three on wins compared to expected wins, which is a lot this early in the season). Yes, they've banked those wins, but there's no reason to expect them to play better than .500 ball going forward (not to mention the fact that they have a murderer's row schedule coming up).
Is that all they have to do? Tear it down and deal Kendrick before he cools off or gets hurt.
However, if they're going to make a run, they need a different manager to do it. Using Doolittle yesterday was idiotic on oh so many levels. It changes the entire mix of pitchers that will be used tonight. Even if it's not the person who pitches the 9th who coughs up runs, you have to ask if they'd have been pitching in that situation had Doolittle been available? Also, they should just DFA Dozier at this point. Even as pinch-hitter he has no value. I Mean, the guy has essentially hit worse than a pitcher this year.
This team could have been significantly better this year if they'd have made the hard decisions and done things like dealing Harper last year. Hopefully, they won't make the same mistake this year and will deal early so they get a maximum return.
Using Doooo last night was the only option. The only remaining options were Grace, Dooo, and Ross, right? Davey opted for winning now and put in his closer rather than save him for tomorrow when we might not even be in the game. It was the right move.
@Jon Quimby, then you use Grace or Ross and if they get in trouble you bring in Doo. They had a 4 run lead, there was room to work.
Dealing early does not necessarily result in getting a maximum return. Although it makes sense that a deadline buyer would pay more to get a player for more games, that's not always going to be true. If you have a big division lead, getting an extra few games out of the player you trade for doesn't help you. Also, teams necessarily have less information about their chances to make the playoffs the further in front of the deadline you go. So even if getting a player via trade earlier in the season could help you more, you might not know enough to know whether that player would make a difference. For example, the Nats traded for Herrerra too early last year. If they waited until the deadline, they wouldn't have made the deal (even though the cost was pretty low, it wasn't worth it to pay it).
For these reasons, demand tends to be highest at or around the trade deadline (and the waiver deal deadline), not before it. This helps the current Nats also because it gives them more time to get back into the race. If it makes sense to deal someone like Rendon - and it very well may - trading him early will almost certainly fail to get them the biggest return. The exception would be if another team makes a stupid offer or the are able to engineer a bidding war.
I don't think you need that many of the options to work out for the Nats to take the division. Incremental improvement in all those areas would do the job, or as Anon8:23 said, 1-4 would be sufficient.
However, I don't necessarily see the team doing that, particularly 1. So I agree with JW, SELL
@Anon - I think the Nats should deal now because the return could be greater for Rendon, however, the other more important reason to deal now is so no one gets hurt.
JQ / JWL - Yeah I think that was the path. I'd have used Grace first and Doo as an emergency back-up (have to hold Ross back in case Max bombs or is hurt early - someone has to go 2+). But I guess he had so little faith in Grace to get through that he figured this was the best way to only use one pitcher.
Anon @ 9:57 - yeah I think the best return is going to come a few days out of the trade deadline. As you get closer you run the risk of some teams ahead pulling early deals and depressing the market for chasing teams. But you run the risk of the races getting away from you between now and then, and teams that need what you have specifically either falling out or finding answers. It's a gambit and different every year. What I think early gets you is a consistent decent value that you might not get if things break the wrong way later.
Anon @ 9:59 & Others - I think 1-4 gets you a good team. Maybe even the 95-96 win pace team. But remember that;s like a 89 win team at the end. Is that enough? Might be, might not. Its a gamble. But if 4/5 are as bad as they have been and the bullpen is no better... that basically negates two of the first 3 SP and I'd put that team
at a 90+ win pace. That's getting you to like 84-85 wins. I don't think that's enough. So I think 1-5 COULD do it. But I'd want something more like 1-6 and 8 or 1-5, 7&8
"Also, they should just DFA Dozier at this point. Even as pinch-hitter he has no value. I Mean, the guy has essentially hit worse than a pitcher this year."
You are wrong, Dozier has hit like shit, but look at pitcher hitting lines.
3-run lead...so, that point doesn't stand, ALL managers throw Doolittle in there. He just didn't have it, but they still won.
History pretty clearly tells us that prices go up at the deadline. The examples of trades of big pieces like Rendon made in May are very few compared to the examples of deadline deals.
Not only that, the probability of Rendon getting injured needs to be compared to the probability of the Nats turning their season around. Frangraphs has the Nats at 43% to make the playoffs. Maybe you think that's high; there are good reasons to think it is. But even if you lower their playoff odds to 20% (a big adjustment), those odds are still much higher than the probability of Rendon getting so severely hurt between now and the deadline that it tanks his trade value (note: the probability of a player getting hurt varies tremendously by player, and is much higher for pitchers than position players, so the calculus might be quite different for someone like Doolittle than someone like Rendon).
So, on the one hand, if you trade Rendon now, you're probably getting a lower return than you would by waiting AND you forego the opportunity to have Rendon help you get back into the race and in the playoffs.
Trading Rendon might be the right move in July. Trading him now is dumb.
If we have a close lead in the ninth tonight, I'll concede that Davey got unlucky with the move, but I'm happy he decided to go for the win last night.
The inherited runners problem is insufferable. Out of curiosity, if 30% is the norm, I wonder how the starter would fare being left to clean up his own mess. Psychologically, if they've already given up a couple runs and keep getting hit around all in the same inning, then maybe a fresh arm would fare better. But so many times, I see a starter throw 6 dominant innings, come out for the seventh and give up a double then a walk and is suddenly pulled for a reliever. Said reliever goes on to let both runners score before being pulled for... another reliever. It's common knowledge that pro pitchers "prefer" to have a clean inning to work with. Its not going to happen all the time, but it seems like managers are too quick to pull the largely effective pitcher for a guy already at a disadvantage, coming off the bench. Not surprising that the inherited runners scoring rate is apparently 30% in a game of failure like baseball.
Well that was hard to watch. I get why people want to fire Davey, but it's not his fault that Rizzo gave him a bullpen full of broken relief pitchers. I liked the Rosenthal and Barraclough moves at the time, but there was absolutely no backup plan. Now you need guys like Justin Miller and Dan Jennings to soak up innings and pitch in high-leverage situations? Unacceptable. Signing Kimbrel wouldn't even help that much, this bullpen needs to be torn down and rebuilt top to bottom.
That right there is why this team is going NOWHERE but .500 and 3rd place in the East this year. What a colossal forest fire that was, good grief. Makes the Chernobyl disaster look like a small backward fire to cook S'mores.
Save your money and time this summer. Hit the Lerner's where it hurts......in the wallet, because that will be the only way we'll get change. If not it's the same old crap for next year (inexperienced/retread manager on the cheap because they'll still be paying camel boy for 1 more year, dumpster diving/dollar store relief pitchers, and anywhere else the Lerner's can save a few bucks). This season is OVA and it's not even Memorial Day. There is no way this crop of relievers is winning a playoff game, yet alone a playoff series :(
These games are rough. So glad Trea is back and that is why I’ll keep tuning in. Not because this team is going anywhere, but because I’m still a loyal fan and like baseball. I boycotted the Redskins last two years and Dan Snyder didn’t seem to notice. The Lerners are just the same.
If we want to talk solutions, because I think we’re all on the same page in that this team stinks and 2019 is lost at this point, then we need a total tear down. I think we need seriously look at trading Rendon, Doolittle, and either Max or Stras. We need to keep some of our building blocks in place (guys like Turner, Soto, Robles, Eaton because he’s cheap, and Corbin). Everyone else can be DFA’d or released. If we want to dump them for random minor leaguers fine. I mean this in the most sincere way regarding the pen. I want every single guy gone. When the sell off is over, only Suero should be there, because, why not? He’s young, cheap, and homegrown. Replace them all with Fresno, Harrisburg, and maybe Potomac guys. Come on Rizzo, make some dreams come true and see what we have.
I really don’t see any shame in calling it quits this year, in order to be good next year. Thats what I freaking wanted them to do last year. The deal that Houston had in place for Bryce will bother me for years to come. There is zero shot Rendon comes back on an extension, so why not do the right thing and get something in return. To make the same mistake twice might be truly unforgivable.
Question is: when should this start? Trade deadline? Early July? Mid June? Just curious when we’d get the most value.
As usual, I'm having trouble understanding the reasoning of all the general managers that populate this board. You want to tear down the club so we will be better in the future. The problem is that any players you get back will be picked by Rizzo and his staff and according to you guys Rizzo is incapable of judging talent, so why bother trading anyone? According to you it would only be a disaster. The manager is no good, the GM is no good and the owners are no good. Even the stadium is no good.
Maybe they should just relocate the franchise to Las Vegas because it would be closer to our farm team. That way they could save on airfare when they shuttle players back and forth.
When they do the rebuild, you guys will be complaining that it is taking too long. Note Houston lost 100 games three years in a row.
While we are throwing everything out, maybe we can get a blog writer who doesn't write an article that sets out nine things the Nats need to do when every sane person knows they are incapable of doing even three of them.
Hey Harper, no one even commented on the premise of your article--get the message? What I want is an article justifying Bryce's 330M contract. He just got a double and 2 RBI--his first since 5/7 so take the opportunity. You might not get another for a couple of weeks.
To all the rest of the GM--remind me which of you wanted to resign Bryce.
It does look like the Nats aren't even close to competing with the Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers, Astros, Yankees, etc and although Philly/Atlanta don't look like they are able to run away and hide (although Philly has some money, so maybe they add at some point and fix a weakness), the Nats just aren't good enough to win the division and would melt down in the playoffs pretty much right away. So yes, a selloff, and I think a guts team puts Max and Doo and Anthony on the table. Maybe even Stras and his 45M upcoming single year. I doubt they would compete next year, though. Might have to be bad for awhile (I'd say about three years?) while they rebuild, because the farm system is unacceptably thin. They should go the Astros route and also do what the Yankees did in getting as much back for key pieces as they can to speed up the rebuild.
I'd can DM because if you don't, he's going to do bad stuff to the pitchers as he tries to save his job. I want Doo and Max healthy enough to trade. I'd get some smart coaches in to work with Soto on hitting and EVERYONE in the OF on defense. And everyone on baserunning. Henley has got to go--his presence no matter who is manager boggles my mind.
It's shocking the team regressed this much in barely over a year, but it's starting to look like this is who they are.
You guys are talking about the wrong players. The only thing you are going to get by trading Max or Stras or Rendon or whoever is a bunch of players who are worse. The problem isn't with our free agents or the well-paid guys, it's that the farm system has been hollowed out by a lack of development on the pitching side and the subsequent mid-season trades to re-stock the busted bullpen every year. The problem isn't the stars, it's the scrubs, and that can only be addressed by figuring out what is wrong with the Nats development pipeline that their pitching prospects keep flaming out or traded away right before they get good.
Davey just doesnt have what it takes to get the most out of what he has. a diseased bullpen. an injury riddled lineup. a 3 horse rotation. i think Dusty would have us just under .500 and striking distance away. but Martinez is a manager that could grow with a healthy lineup and reasonable bullpen. he has neither and its showing.
@ssln - 2 people commented on the premise of Harper's blog post. Please read before vomiting onto your keyboard for the rest of us to scroll past.
I didn't want to sign Bryce. I think you know who you are calling out. I think the manager is no good, but our record is not entirely his fault. I think Rizzo is one of the better GM's in the game, and is the ONLY reason we are not stuck with Jim Bowden or some other loser. The Lerner's are a problem, but please, offer a solution to that?
Perspective helps. As pissed as I am, I've been watching the other MASN team try to play baseball and I just have to shake my head and laugh. Baltimore is one of the worst franchises over the past 20 years, but darn it, they tore the entire roster down in an effort to rebuild. Does anyone trust that organization to rebuild? ANYONE? Does anyone trust Baltimore's GM? Angelos? Their rookie manager? No. And they shouldn't, because that organization has proven that they can lose consistently, be an embarrassment, can't develop talent, can't draft well, will sign Chris Davis for top $$$, and haven't made an impact trade in years. So of course they can't properly go through an organizational rebuild.
I trust Rizzo on all of those things. Ssln, it would certainly help if you call out someone instead of yelling at the crowd from your throne of reason and understanding. Offer something.
Rizzo really did help keep the Nats in the playoff hunt year after year, but his penchant for trading pitching prospects is now a problem because he's developed so few replacements for them. Injuries is probably due in part to bad luck. Managing issues are partly due to the Lerner philosophy about managers and then a bad hire (I don't think DM is ready to grow into the job, at least not this job). And this year, Rizzo made two big miscalculations on Dozier and Rosenthal and, as usual, burned bridges on a few Nats pitchers (I wanted Gio back and never would have traded Kintzler; I was surprised by the Roark trade and wanted Morton over Sanchez).
I wonder if Rizzo has so much invested in this roster that he won't be able to recognize when it's time to sell. We seem to still be in the denial stage about what's happening. If it gets to year 3 of this, then I think denial ends, but my sense is the sooner you recognize it the better. I say do a smart sell off now with a hope of competing in 2021. I think 2019 is gone, and 2020 is not looking good.
I'm all for a sell off and sooner the better. Only 3 players on the major league/injured list roster that should be untouchable and untradeable are Soto, Robles, and Turner. Everyone else, at least in my book, can be had for the right price, and yes that includes Doo (rebuilding teams don't need closers), Stras & Scherzer. Obviously some won't move due to NTC (Zimmerman), others won't move due to contract length (Corbin), and some others won't move due to pure suckness (Difo) but Rizzo should at least be fielding calls on everyone but those 3 I mentioned.
I think someone mentioned it on this thread but it might've been earlier in the week about the Harper trade to the Astros that got veto'd down from up above. Don't make that mistake again with Rendon.
So, I understand this is basically rearranging deck chairs on the Titantic after it has already hit the iceberg, but while Hellickson is out there walking the entire ballpark with a 5+ ERA, and keeps going out there while Keuchel remains unsigned. Is he a staff ace at this point in time?? No, but they don't need him to be. But he is a quality pitcher, can eat innings, and pitch through the lineup a 3rd time. Hellickson can't give innings because he can't go through the order a 3rd time and this year he sucks, so why does he continue to go out there every 5th day?? Can't someone in Harrisburg or Fresno do the same thing he is doing for 1/100th of the price??
Old PBN
Leave it to you to totally misunderstand my post. I was being sarcastic about all the GM's on this board who wanted to sign Bryce and Kimbrel so that we could have two more impossible contracts to try and dump as well as no first round draft choice next month.
The other comments about getting rid of everything are those of other people on the board, not things I fully endorse.Anyway, I'm used to you not understanding my posts and going off on some preordained tangent so don't bother to apologize.
As far as being constructive, DM goes when he losses the clubhoue. Rizzo can only make deals when other teams are willing to deal which is closer to the trade deadline and he can only get what people are willing to give up. I suspect that will be less than most of you expect.
The rebuild will take at least three years and we will have to eat a big bunch of salary to unload the contracts. People need to get used to seeing a team that is only slightly better than this year's Marlins and there is no guarantee the rebuild will work.
The only thing that is guaranteed is that you won't understand a thing I post during that period of time.
I wouldn't apologize, pal. Enjoy the rebuild.
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