First a thought experiment
Adrian Sanchez is not a good major league baseball player. He was not good when first brought up in 2017, and then into 2018 was also not good. While you could say the problem was a lack of major league experience the facts are he simply doesn't belong on a major league roster beyond emergency use status. This was clear after 2017 and is some small part of the reason Matt Adams was signed. No one batted an eye. So someone shows they are clearly not ready for the job they are handed. They are replaced. It is the way of the world and we are fine with it.
What makes managing different?
Well, of course the huge one thing is that there is only one hard and fast measurement of managing success, wins, and it's unclear how much the manager contributes to that. It's as if we could only evaluate pitchers by opponents BABIP. But our choices are (1) use the flawed measurement we have or (2) use nothing, and I'd at least take the flawed measurement into account. That's what's going on with Davey. He doesn't manage the team to win. That's a fact. It's arguable even considering injuries and the like, he doesn't get them to the success rate they should have. Does that overcome the other things we don't see? Well we fans REALLY don't see those things so it's mostly a shrug. Don't know. Don't care. That's why experience matters here. You may be able to point to testimonials from a long managerial career saying "No, this guy really gets it! This is just bad luck and timing!" But Davey doesn't have that either. So all we have is management's word that they aren't keeping him just because they are paying him, but he really is a good manager that's gotten some bad breaks.
At this point it just the flawed use of wins, versus the unverifiable use of words. Fun times for us soulless automatons. Given the managements unreliability when it comes to dealing with managers, I feel compelled to go with the flawed use of wins and hope that Davey gets fired.
When? I've never been a fan of the dramatic firings. Fans love it because it matches the anger they usually feel, but I think it's a poor business move that may make candidates think twice about coming to your organization. Sure demand is high and supply is low, but you still want to be THE place people want to go to, not the place they go to because that's what's available. you'll get better people the first way. So I wouldn't fire Davey now. You could fire him as soon as the Nats are back home assuming they don't sweep the Dodgers or anything.
Alternatively, if you like Davey, or want to keep him around for other reasons, you can use the recent run to keep him around. Massive injuries, good teams, tough road trip (PHI -> MIL -> LA is a slog, even without mechanical issues). It was the worst case scenario. So you keep him around until Soto is back (Saturday) and Turner is back (maybe a week after that - he'll need a couple AA games probably - yes AA - he aint' going to Fresno) and the team has played a while. That could be as late as June 5th. You'd have to assume a poor or even middling showing with a full strength team when they go on a vMIA, @ATL, @CIN, vCHW run would be telling enough. Or even stretch it out to include the @SDP @CHW road swing if you must. June 11th. That's the latest date I could possibly see a still underperforming Davey here. If he's here beyond that either the team has gotten better, gone through even more dramatic injury problems (and Davey is just here to suck up the losses), or you don't want to pay two guys.
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23 comments:
Nats are still projected to win 84. How about using Projected Wins as the metric? Say, make a call if the number dips below 80? 80 wins this year would be a disappointment, but seemingly not a fire-able offense. Early June, as you suggest, would probably be a good time to evaluate, once the team is (presumably) healthier and not in the middle of a rough road trip.
The other question to ask is: Who would you bring in? Who can we say, 'This guy would DEFINITELY be better for the Nationals, AND is available, AND wants the job!' Not saying this guy doesn't exist, more asking out of curiosity and strategy, because this would also factor into the decision.
That's an idea. Memorial Day is usually a good line in the sand. However things can get off track before that in such a way it forces your hand. Nats aren't there yet but get swept by the Dodgers and then lose the first game at home...
You hit on the other problem is that there isn't many next guys you can fit the criteria Nats fans (and presumably the Nats) would want, and certainly not to jump in mid-year on a ship headed nowhere. So more than likely the Nats if they fire Davey, would want it to be bad enough they can just promote someone to interim to manage out the string while they figure out where they want to position the team going forward. So the answer is Chip Hale becomes manager
G Cracka's question has been on my mind for a while now: "who would you bring in?" But I'm not even thinking about this season. Say the Nats finish out with Hale, or even leave Martinez in place, firing him after the season. How desirable is that manager job? And before we get too excited with "but there's only 30 of them, and it's the Washington Nationals" keep in mind:
The Lerners aren't going pay. They don't pay anyone who doesn't take the field, from the GM on down. So money won't do it. They felt they had to offer Martinez a three year deal because they already has such a history of quick-torching managers, including the guy who got us to the playoffs both years he was here.
So whoever comes in knows they're on a short leash, and not receiving a premium for their trouble. I too am genuinely curious: who looks like they might be available, and interested in that Job?
I saw it suggested somewhere that the Nats should promote Randy Knorr... I like the idea of calling on him this year as a test run to try to earn the job for future seasons. He is being successful with a team that by all accounts is undermanned compared to the competition. Nats have had best AAA players called up or stashed in AA for quick access... basically all year.
It seems to be a more inventive plan than simply playing out the string with Chip.
UNK - Somewhere middle pack, assuming Rizzo is around OR you come in with a completely new GM who hires you. Pay is gonna be low market, short deal but team has some nice pieces, Rizzo has a proven track record and if he's gone, you are tied to your new GM. Only way it's a BAD gig is if you are hired by Rizzo and then he goes out the door.
I'd say a couple guys would probably turn it down but most would still take it
After all the turmoil this ownership family has had, apparently the front office called Paul Menhart to tell him he got the job THREE days before firing Lilliquist. That's poor form.
I don't know who would want this job, but I think timing is more important than anything. Some coaches wait their entire careers to be able to interview for an MLB manager position. Menhart is one of those guys who waited years for this opportunity. I could see an experienced guy (Showalter, Girardi) turning it down because it would have to be the "right opportunity." But a rookie manager might jump at the cha-- oh wait. We've done that. TWICE already.
I don't have any ideas. :(
I don't know that they are good options, but Randy Knorr and Bo Porter are lying in wait for the interim job, though I agree that Hale could be the betting favorite. Porter almost has to be better on the bench than on the pre-game set.
Fellas, I'd be happy to take the job, and I'd be a sweet bargain.
Bo Porter had a .367 win % with Houston in 2013-14. He lost 111 games his first year and didn't make it out of the next. Rebuilding team or not - I don't know why we would want him over Davey Martinez. Better on the bench than on TV? He could just be bad at both... I don't want to find out.
Harper Gordek for manager!
Anon, at that point it's just "interim", who cares?
Porter managed the hell out of Houston's rebuild since they went on to win the World Series, didn't he?
Why pay for a new manager if you're not willing to pay for a reliever? Serious question.
They should call up Randy Knorr and option Davey to Fresno.
At this point Harper what's the point?? I don't think Randy Knorr is going to move the needle that much to make much of a different but you really think the Lerner's are going to pay for 2 managers?? Ha! They won't even pay for a decent one, no way in hell are they paying for 2 at this point in the season. Now.....IF and that's a big IF, the fans stay away and there's Expos & A's like attendance numbers at Nats Park the next 6 weeks (5 to 10 thousand) AND the team is still struggling along in mediocrity than I could see a change at the All Star Break or thereabouts, but the hope for the forseeable future at least until the middle to end of June is the injured players come back quickly, the bullpen stabilizes, and nobody else gets hurt, and take the warts with Dave, as imo, if they do make a run back into things it will be in spite of Martinez, not because of Martinez, but for now that's the only option, a wing and a prayer!
And for the above about Porter in Houston, most managers tend to do better the second time around. Look at AJ Hinch, his first managerial job was in Arizona and he was God awful there, and now he's one of the best in the bigs.
Tito Francona. First stop in Philly wasn't bad, but certainly wasn't great either, I'd say average, and now he's a sure fire hall of famer for what he's done in Cleveland and before that Boston.
Dave Martinez does not manage his pitching staff well, receivers are terrible, they need immediate help. Nationals should look at Michael Sarbaugh, Cleveland Indians, 3rd base coach plus has managed and been a winner at all minor league levels. If the Nets cannot or will not trade for relief help, they should look at all minor league prospects in their system. Dennis Fackler
"He [Davey] doesn't manage the team to win. That's a fact."
Are you saying he manages in order to lose? (There are about 5 million people who'd be willing to do that for 100Gs a year; not to mention requiring a serious investigation by MLB and the FBI.) Or are you saying he manages to play for a (theoretical) tie? Those are the two alternatives to your astonishing assertion.
List the cardinal sins--bullpen management, in-game tactics, strategic oversight, game preparation, load management, inexperience, etc. etc.--and call him a bad manager who deserves to be fired for the good of the team.
But really, Harper, you know better than to say he doesn't manage to win, and call that a fact. Of course he is managing to win games. He's just terrible at it.
Most teams are not paying much for managers anymore, they are very much like 33 year-old free agents. Alex Cora, Mickey Calloway, and Gabe Kapler are making comparable salaries as Martinez, for instance. Guys like Madden and Francona are examples of crocodiles compared to the dying dinosaurs like Scoscia, Showalter, and after this season - Bochy. You think the Marlins want to be paying Mattingly 2.5 million?
Maybe we can trade with Oakland to get Bob Melvin for Martinez and a prospect.
@SM I think it's plenty clear in context that the sentence you're concerned about means something like "He hasn't managed the team to wins," "He doesn't win," and "He isn't winning." I would definitely prefer a few ambiguous sentences or minor errors to fewer posts because re-writing and proofing take too long. Harper is doing this for free.
I wrote and deleted a ruder version of this comment above.
6-0 were going to the 'ship!!!!!!!!!
I say we keep Davey around until the end of the season at this point...
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