Nationals Baseball: Let's finish it up

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Let's finish it up

 While we wait to see if Davey Martinez's "ok" when it comes to Stras was a "He's ok! (big smile)" or a "ok. (walks away without saying anything more)" 


Left Field

Ozuna

Dom Smith

McCutchen

Schwarber

Ozuna is the clear winner here. The fielding is suspect (even though it shouldn't be? It's weird. He's got talent) The hitting is not. Even if last year is a fluke - putting up a bad year would be a shock. Dom Smith might be a better hitter than Ozuna but the guy is a DH and shouldn't be out there. The Mets know that but don't have a choice. McCutchen is aging. Unlikely to put up a special year, incapable of good defense, but should be at least average in both. Schwarber is a gamble who might not hit and probably won't field. But then again he might hit, it's what he does best. There are worse chances to take. 

 

Center Field

Nimmo

Robles

Pache

Haseley

Another hitting vs defense thing but with a caveat. I would put Robles first - this being a crucial position and all - even though he has never hit. But he didn't field last year either. That little question mark is enough to put the clearly can hit Nimmo ahead of him, even though Brandon should definitely be a corner OF. Robles should be a top fielder in CF but last year he didn't look like it. I'd expect a bounce back but his hitting has been so poor the Nats have at least looked twice at him.  Pache obviously could be the best one out of all of these guys - a legit top prospect - but we got to see it in practice. Haseley is a guy who you can stick in the position but probably is just a stop gap between guys you actually like

 

Right Field

Soto 

Acuna

Bryce

Conforto

Conforto has worked hard and made himself both a very good hitter and a solid, if unspectacular fielder. At any other position in any other league he'd probably be a multi-time All-Star by now. Instead he's the fourth best RF in the NL East. You could argue Bryce and Conforto are equivalent. You could. Maybe even Conforto slightly better in the field. But Bryce has the history - having two years as good as Conforto's best, having his non-injured base be equal to Conforto's second best and oh yeah, having a historically amazing year in there. Still the HoF track isn't good enough to put him over Acuna who at 22 appears to be at the same level at the plate at these two and is actually a good fielder. And HE'S not at the level of Soto who is probably the worst fielder of the bunch at "serviceable" but might just be the best hitter in baseball today. 


Catcher

Realmuto

McCann

d'Arnaud

Gomes

Realmuto can hit and can play D. He's probably the best catcher in baseball. (him or Grandal) McCann might be third best? He might also be a fluke so no one puts him at third best. But still he's a Top 10 guy going into 2021 based on the last two years. d'Arnaud has a middling reputation but last year put up that year at the plate you kind of always felt he could. But it's just one year and the guy can't stay healthy. Gomes seems to be at best average at the plate and behind the plate. He's also the oldest.  Really you can shuffle 2-4 anyway you want. This ranking is based a lot off last year. It's kind of tough to put Gomes 2nd but not impossible. McCann has some D lapses in his history.


For completeness

LF Dickerson - 4th, but not by much. 

CF Marte - 1st! He's a solid player. Look for him to be traded. 

RF - Duvall - 5th. He's not terrible but it's not close either. Again the 4th best guy here should be a multo-year All-State

C - Alfaro - 5th.  The former highly touted prospect has yet to show anything at the major league level


What does this all mean? Nothing.  For the Nats it shows that their pitching is competitive in the NL East. Their OF is solid, but their IF in general is going to keep them from being up there with the Mets and maybe the Braves.  Can they get better in the IF? There isn't really anyone on the horizon so I doubt it.  You can imagine a world maybe where Stevenson is magically good and Schwarber/Bell can fight over who starts? 

One of the things going through this is how questionable defensively the Nats might be next year. Robles is the only top fielder at his position and he had that off year last year. Kieboom could be, but he also needs to show it consistently. After that you have Turner and Gomes being ok and then a bunch of guys who are not good. Schwarber, Bell, Soto, Castro. That's a lot of ground to cover for Robles and a bunch of guys who probably can't help.

4 comments:

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Just throwing it out there, I was thoroughly confused by the McCann/d'Arnaud situation given that the Braves had BRIAN McCann forever and the Mets had d'Arnaud for the early part of his career.

Moving on, I will say I'm slightly more optimistic about Robles/Schwarber than you Harper. Defensive stats in a short season like last year are going to be more noise than signal, so Robles's D is nothing to worry about, and at the plate last year was definitely bad but I think 2019 Robles is more likely the true Robles.

As for Schwarber, I think he will hit given his BABIP was way down last year largely due to way too many groundballs and Kevin "Launch Angle" Long will probably work with that. And on D he's got a solid assist rate, even if he isn't going to get to as many flyballs as your typical LF

billyhacker said...

I like this take. Also, harper as the third best right fielder in the division makes me feel elated. It takes so little.

Harper said...

CP - I agree - I think Robles' D is probably very good and he will hit enough to play for a few more years and if there's 1-2 actually above average years in there instead of slightly below - great! What the pessimism was for was mainly explaining why I'd have Nimmo ahead of him bc an average hitting, great fielding Robles is first. As for Schwarber I said before I think he'll hit enough. If he doesn't make average I'd be pretty surprised. But I don't have defensive hope for the guy.

bh - I will say I think almost anyone could be 1st here (Conforto would shock me a little) and anyone could be 4th. All it might take for Soto would be to have a full season hitting like either 2018 or 2019 - which were good years! It'd still be good! But a 140+OPS with his D... that could easily be worst. This is a tough group.

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