The Kieboom Conundrum

The Nats had a plan. 

The amazing development of a bevy of young talent around 2012, by a mixture of luck and design, allowed the Nats to plan for the next window, which would arrive after 2015/6.  They could let the minor leagues develop mostly undisturbed then based on development choose which prospects to trade, which to keep, and who to target in free agency. Given the slightly younger major league hitting talent under control and the slightly underwhelming development of the top pitching prospects, it made sense to sign free agent pitching and trade young pitching and extend that window through 2018/2019. But this time the shorter time frame and starting with a hollowed out minors meant the Nats couldn't repeat their last plan unless everything went right. It did not. The hitting talent continued to develop - Trea Turner was good, Juan Soto great, and Victor Robles playable, but the pitching Erick Fedde, Austin Voth, AJ Cole, and later Seth Romero, Wil Crowe, did not. That left the Nats with choice and signing pitchers with hopes the more promising hitters Kieboom and Garcia (and maybe Yasel Antuna and Raudy Read) would come through made more sense. 

Now is the time when these players need to come through and they have not. The most troublesome is Carter Kieboom because as the top prospect he was the one the Nats were most reliant on. They let Rendon walk in part because Kieboom could fill that spot. They tightly held on to him in the face of some trade offers. Hell, they might have even drafted his brother to get Kieboom*. Kieboom is fairly young (24 in September) and has pretty limited major league experience - 165 PAs so nothing is written in stone but it's not just that he hasn't been up to snuff. He's been terrible. A .181 BA only 3 XBH and spotty defense as he's forced to move to a new position. This Spring has been nothing different and the Nats are starting to feel out other plans. Castro at third maybe (until he got hurt).  

You could do that. This team is ready to compete - a WC level team if they are all healthy and the FA gambles don't go bust. But for what? For what looks like not a shot at the Wild Card? It feels more like you need to see what you have here because the decisions on what the next window looks like start this year.

Max's contract is done this year. Turner next. Corbin and Soto a couple years after that. They aren't going to keep/replace them all and yet they probably need people of that level of talent. Honestly they could use one more bat. If Kieboom doesn't hit it forces the Nats into a bad position because they thought he would fill one of these spots with cheap talent for the next few seasons. If he doesn't (and no one else steps up) well then do you keep trying? Do you sign an aging Max for 2-3 more years? Do you trade Turner in hopes of building a future team that would entice Soto to stay? It's tough. 

How is everyone else doing? 

Garcia is super young (21 in a couple weeks) so there's a lot of time left. However, he also hasn't hit yet and there isn't much that makes you think he's going to develop much power or patience. The goal here is more for a slick-fielding fast running .300 slap hitter. Based on his major league stint that seems reasonable but we'll see what he does this year. Ideally I'd like to see him in AAA but he'll probably back up Castro. 

Yasel Antuna isn't quite as young (22 in October) and hadn't shown much in A ball before injuries derailed his 2018 and 2019. Consider this a restart year.

Raudy Read is definitely NOT young (28 in October) and has kind of just hung on as he's moved up the chain.  There doesn't seem to be anything here except maybe a future back-up catcher. 

Drew Mendoza is a more recent draft pick who had about 50 meh games back in 2019 in his first major league stint. Not exactly a restart like Antuna but this will be the year we get an idea of what the Nats actually have here other than a great eye.

*I wouldn't say it was a wasted pick - even in the 5th round that's a long odds to get a starter and this draft doesn't look particularly deep in retrospect.  And Spencer did get some hacks in the majors, even if they might have been a little forced.