The Nats are what they are at this point. A just below average team who have been lead by starting pitching and a core relief set. The pitching has not been lucky, but instead has used a Top 10ish walk rate and a Top 5ish HR rate*, to limit run scoring. The K-rate is low. The defense isn't great. But if you don't put those extra guys on base and more importantly if you don't give up those home runs that score everyone, you can win games. This is the end point of a league that has devolved into approaching offense by the three true outcomes only. It's ok if you K as long as you walk and hit homers too. If everyone is trying to do that instead of get base hits then the Nats approach is ideal.
Their offense is just passable enough to keep them winning about as many games as they lose, as the pitching keeps them in game after game. CJ Abrams remains a top player and Jesse Winker has been healthy and therefore good. The rest you can take or leave ranging from average to terrible. They used stolen bases to help boost scoring in the first two months but have lately relied more on sequencing luck than anything else, getting the right hits at the right time, yesterday being the perfect example.
In terms of stats this is very much like the 2011 Washington Nationals team who rode a decent set of starters and a below average offense to a .500 record.
What changed between 2011 and 2012 to start the near decade run of success and can** that happen again?
- Introduction of a superstar OF? Check!
- Continued success of a young IF? Check!
- Successful bench bats? That's variable but no reason why not!
- Savvy shifting of players to cover weak position? Not exactly sure where that would be coming from.
- Bounce back from well respected veteran FA bat? No, that's not here.
- Bounce back from OTHER veteran FA bat? See last one.
- Unexpected bat surge from an up the middle position? How much do you believe in Ruiz?
OK well offensively there needs to be some work done
- Former first round pick rounding into star pitcher? Check!
- Continued improvement from young reliable starting arm while a second one gives the Nats an average year? Sounds like a good projection for Irvin and Parker! Check!
- FA pitcher has Cy Young vote getting year? Ok well that HAS to come later anyway.
- FA pitcher has solid year in 4/5 role? Two FA pitchers? Well I can't rule it out yet can I?
- Retention of every single good youngish bullpen piece but one (out of like 6) and as a group they all pitched just as well? Well the bullpen isn't young so that's a wrench, and we have to see what they do at the deadline here, but I'm not hopeful on points 2 or 3.
Yeah pitching too. But that should be expected if you are planning to jump from 81ish wins to 95ish wins.
There are pieces in place but there are also things missing. There are young bats who can likely fill the important star roles and create a solid bench. There aren't reliable veterans signed for next year that were good and should be better. These can be signed (Winker is an example. Candelario last year) but you can definitely whiff on those (Gallo, Maikel Franco). There are solid arms that should at least get you three deep of NOT back of the rotation pitching. There are a bunch of bullpen arms that are holding down the pen. There aren't a handful of 24-27 aged bullpen arms throwing well and under control for a while.
It would seem for a big jump the Nats need both FA commitment to a couple bats AND a couple arms for next year. I suppose Jesse Winker can be re-signed cheaply but he's not as reliable as Werth or LaRoche would have been. It's a bigger gamble to make him one of the two. You could also try Herz/Cavalli/etc to play the Edwin Jackson role. It isn't asking for that much but pitching prospects are notoriously fickle. If they do have to spend, that's a fair amount of money
It would also seem - sort of worrying - that the bullpen is set up for now, with no later in the picture. Guys well over 30 under short contracts and running out of team control. Keeping is an option and probably wouldn't be too costly, but the bullpen is aging not peaking. So trading is an option. You can certainly try to rebuild it for next year but we've seen the track record for that is like three bad years for every two good ones. This will be an interesting piece. Honestly I'd almost like to see Herz moved NOW to fill one of these roles. Literally there is one pen arm under 30. It's Harvey and he's 29 and a half.
Good season. Fun season. Like 2011. But the Nats had more in place in 2011 and all it took was a couple key moves (and of course some luck - every team needs it) to make the next two steps to constant contender. To get next year to be a great season is not going to just happen with a couple key moves and luck. There's a bullpen riddle to solve and there's a handful of moves that need to happen. But it's there for the taking potentially.
(ed note - I think I'm mostly saying - don't expect 2025 to be 2012. Expect it to be an intermediate step if the Nats commit to a couple FA. Something like mid to high 80s in wins and a real good WC chance.)
*Or bottom 5ish - depends on how you are looking at it. They don't give up homers that's what we're saying.
**Just saying 'can' here. The pieces are in place.
19 comments:
Does anyone know where you can find pitches per at bat for players or teams? I didn’t see on FG, which isn’t promising (like the hitting approach of most Nats).
@Anon
ESPN has pitches per plate appearance under "expanded batting" on a player's stats tab and in the team stats pages.
If you're curious about the Nats, Ruiz sees the fewest with 3.36, while the regular player with the highest is Gallo with 4.16 followed by Winker with 4.07. The team average is 3.78.
They also have pitches per batter faced under their "opponent batting" section of a pitcher's stats tab. They give it as a ratio without doing the math, but it's not hard to calculate.
I wouldn't worry so much about the pen. Few relief arms are reliable long term, so it's not really a huge deal that we only have a year or two of control with these guys. I mean, I'd rather they all be pre-arb and 25, but it's more important to have that in the rotation, and the Nats do.
We also have a decent RP pipeline. I don't shift Herz, since I'm a big believer in his upside, but other starters not named Sykora or Susana are fair game. Maybe not Lara quite yet, but a conversion next year or the year after to help out a real contender would be totally fine. (Maybe at that point, it would make sense to shift one of Sykora and Susana too.) It looks like they've converted Henry over since coming back from his last injury, and I think we're deep enough at SP that at least one of Rutledge and Adon should be given a bullpen tryout once Gray and Cavalli are given clean bills of health.
Plus there are guys in the system already throwing good relief innings. Some are getting healthy, some are working their way up. It's easy to come up with 8 or 10 names that have a decent shot to be good bullpen arms by 2026. They won't all pan out but a couple of internal promotions plus a couple of FA signings each year should be sustainable indefinitely.
Other than that, I pretty much agree with your take. Expectations for next year are "solidly in WC contention but not one of the league's best teams". And we only overshoot that with a combination of development steps forward and big FA signings. It's possible that we sign Soto and Barnes. It's possible that Gore becomes an ace and Abrams becomes a star. It's more likely that the team needs a bit more time, or even never gets back to the "WS Favorite" level, but if we can have 90-win true talent teams year-in and year-out, I'll be happy. And that's looking possible.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2024-pitches-batting.shtml
Indeed, they see a low number of pitches. It seems to be a combination of pitchers throwing a lot of strikes and the Nats being good at putting the ball in play.
Harper, all your points about 2025 have merit. The one that's least moving to me is the bullpen, for a few reasons: (1) year-to-year volatility (this year's great pen is next year's terrible pen and vice versa); and (2) the org has several starting pitchers in the upper minors who (a) don't have rotation spots; and (b) are running out of options. Guys like Rutledge, Adon, and Ward. Of these three, I'd predict one pitches well enough to be a 7-8-9th inning guy, the other well enough to be a long-inning mop up guy, and the third busts. You can add Herz to this group if you like (though I'd slot him as a potential closer/back-end type).
For the Nats to be a viable postseason threat in 2025, the org *needs* to spend real FA money in the offseason. The Gallo type signings cannot cut it. It's time for a big splash (and I'd like the splash to be spelled J-U-A-N S-O-T-O).
I'm less optimistic for next year. I don't see that the Nats can even sustain their current, one-game under .500 for this year. Hunter Harvey and Kyle Finnegan are being over-used, and they may get tired or injured. I like what I see with Jake Irvin and Mitch Parker, but I'm not confident that they can continue pitching to almost a 3.00 ERA. And it's way to early to know if DJ Herz is a keeper. The return of Lane Thomas has definitely helped the batting side of the equation, but there are too many weak links in the batting order (Ruiz, Meneses, Rosario, Gallo (who should be DFAd), Senzel, Young (at the plate, not in the field).
Now, if James Woods can hit in the majors that would make a huge difference. If Gore became a true #1 that would be great. But there are still large gaps, and the Nats would have to sign both an ace pitcher and high OPS hitter to be a legitimate playoff team next year.
I'm in the same boat as you PF...but come to a different conclusion despite my username. The fact that the Nats appear to be only 2 big FA signings away from being a real contender is cause for optimism, since making a signing is arguably easier than developing that talent in-house
So who can they sign? Obviously Burnes/Soto would be ideal, but there are other options out there.
Cole probably takes his opt out and re-signs with NYY, but you never know
Alonso hasn't been quite the player he started out as, but still a good bet to be a solid power hitter
Flaherty's having a real good year and the Nats are known for snagging Tigers pitchers
Teoscar Hernandez is having a resurgence
Not saying the Nats will hit on any of these FA, but if Wood/Crews come up in August/September and make some noise, and the young pitchers keep firing strikes, the Nats become a very attractive landing spot for any FA who wants to win
Lets see if I've got this straight.
If the Nats don't spend much money this offseason, they'll be a legit Wild Card contender next year, but no more. If they spend money well and have luck, they might be something considerably more.
Is that about right?
You had me at "This is 2011." It is what I went into the year hoping. You all have pointed out that does not mean that next year is 2012, but I am happy to take this one step at a time. If they scrap and luck their way into the playoffs, I could enjoy even a single WC game. Just don't follow a fluke with a Marlins-style disintegration.
There are two guys who are definitely not going to be on the 2025 Nats--Gallo, Menesses-- and one guy who's probably not going to be--Winkler. Gallo and Menesses play some combination of 1B/DH/corner OF, and their WRC+ is 77 and 74 respectively. Getting league-average offensive production out of 1B/DH is not a heavy lift. Getting rid of those two with AAAA players who can put up 90-95 WRC+ would improve the lineup significantly and won't cost meaningful money. Getting actual MLB regulars for those positions would be even more improvement (though it would cost money). And we can dream on a star (like Soto) for one of those spots. Imagine going from Meneses's 74 WRC+/-0.2 WAR to Juan Soto's 183 WRC+/4.6 WAR. Over a whole season this kind of change could be worth 9 wins. And the Nats have two eminently fillable positions over which to make real, significant improvements. When your catcher can't hit, there's just not much you can do because most of the available alternatives can't hit either. Not so with 1B and DH.
We also need to be realistic about replacing Winkler, who is good (or at least has been good so far in 2024). He's sporting a team-leading 129 WRC+ (with poor defense in LF). James Wood is the likely replacement, and though he may turn into an MVP candidate, I'd be thrilled if he equaled Winkler's 129 WRC+ in 2024 (which is better than Harper's rookie season in '12 though not as good as Soto's). Wood probably replaces--or even betters--Winkler's overall production in 2025, but probably doesn't hit as well.
In general, improvement is more likely when you're replacing garbage, and the Nats will be replacing garbage at two spots where non-garbage is plentiful. That will either cover up underperformance/injuries in other areas, or will fuel the Nats to a mid-80s win projection.
@PHS-- I am with you. I get easily engaged in questions like--why do the Colorado pitchers having such low pitch counts against us.
Instead, this is a moment to savor in a more emotional and less analytic way. You can't play meaningful baseball in September, if you don't play meaningful baseball in June. Unexpectedly, we are doing just.
Glad to see Harper is on the (CAUTIOUSLY) (WITH CAVEATS NOTED) "Nats are coming out of their rebuild" bandwagon. Quite agree there are no guarantees next year is "2012" again, but it's also quite true Nats don't need to get 98 wins to be in the playoffs. Just 88-90 (or a +8 to +10 wins from an "81ish" 2024 season) 2025 wins would get Nats to the dance.
It remains a longshot. I *KNOW* it remains a longshot for many reasons. But if Soto is willing to play first base (and he was filmed doing 1B drills--no doubt a Boras move) he would be a great match for the 2025 Nats. From both a baseball and a PR perspective it would be a rational move to go high (like 12/$550M/$45.83M high) on Juan. If nothing else the Nats would be forcing other teams to go REALLY high for Soto. If Cohen wants to sign him at $600+M, well, that at least makes their luxury tax hit painful even for Cohen. NYY also in a bit of aging luxury tax hell already, so make it hurt for them if they go there.
And signing Soto to $45-50M AAV could be fit in the Nats payroll with a (single) front-end FA SP (the "ace" to tack onto Gore, Irvin, Parker, Cavalli, Gray, Herz and maybe Lara later). Nats don't have enough pitching depth to trade any away, NO...but they have enough depth to make just one high-end FA SP rational. I mean, Corbin's salary in 2024 is $35M. So move that to a FA SP in 2025 and use the rest of the team's cap room to go for a Soto/see if come of the NewNats are willing to sign extensions.
As for why the 2024 Nats aren't seeing many pitches? That's easy. One is they do swing early and often--but another is nobody (I mean, NOBODY) in the Nats lineup scares opposing pitchers. And the Nats team speed means putting Nats on base is also dangerous.
So you throw tons of strikes against a lineup like the 2024 Nats because (like Nats pitchers have done this year) the 2024 Nats can't hurt you very often with power/HR and walking them is bad/puts their speed on the bases.
Circling back, this is one reason a Soto at 1B makes sense for the 2025+ Nats. Adding batters who DO scare pitchers and DO force them to pitch carefully (Soto, hopefully Wood, maybe Crews, CJ if he continues to develop, House if/when he arrives) are something the Nats really really really need to add to their lineup to be high end contenders.
So yeah, got it, it's a LONG SHOT. I KNOW THAT. But there remains a rational case for the Nats to go hard after Juan for 2025 and beyond.
Sadly, Soto is not coming back to DC. First, after the departure of Corbin, there are no Nats players remaining from the World Series team (except for Tanner Rainey), so there is nothing to come back to (unless he loves Davey Martinez). Second, I think he'll stay with the Yankees, and in all events, he'll want to play for a serious contender. (He'd be foolish to go to the Mets.) Third, there is no way Mark Lerner is going to spend that kind of money. Even when the Lerners (and that was Ted Lerner) were willing to spend big bucks, they spent it on pitching (Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin). They let Harper and Rendon walk. Other than Werth, I can't remember the Nats ever signing a big dollar, long-term deal with an everyday player. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.)
Thank you!
Thanks!
Well said Harper! Looks like 2025 won’t be 2012, but seems promising.
One minor thing to note: Robert Garcia is 28
There’d probably need to be a change in ownership the next couple months. He’s one of the few where it absolutely makes sense to back up the Brinks truck though.
Any chance the team just decided that it was long term preferable to keep Preller right where he is?
@PF. Every lost opportunity has a story and IMO its hard to say definitively that "long-term deals with everyday players" is off the table for the Nats. Harper and Boras assumed they could always go back and get Ted to pony up. Rendon did not want to play here and made no secret that "baseball was just a job" for him. I don't think Soto ever intended to sign an extension versus waiting for free agency. The Padres and Yankees discovered that, too.
The emphasis on pitchers appears to be a Rizzo thing; no reason to think the Lerner's have an opinion. Rizzo of the 2020's might have a different perspective than a decade ago.
I don't think it likely Soto is coming here. 8 to 12 teams with Brinks trucks will be offering proposals--we might have the best offer, maybe not. So unlikely, but not impossible.
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