Nationals Baseball: 27 outs away

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

27 outs away

First off let me get off my chest that the idea that Strasburg up at 231 IP (previous high 220 in 2014) and 90 pitches in this game should come out for the 7th inning with a 6-0 lead is criminal.  You are risking the health and usefulness of Strasburg for anything beyond this point for literally no reason. You are almost certain to go all hands on deck for the next series. You need all these guys at their best. You get a rare chance to build up such as lead that you can rest a precious starter and you let him get to 117 pitches. That's reckless.

This is why you need me soulless automaton because the crowd reaction was basically "COOL!"  Right now, the Nats could put Gomes in CF, watch him make 4 errors, but if he hits a swinging bunt that the 3rd baseman airmails into the crowd and a couple runs scored the fans would be like "DAVEY PUSHING ALL THE RIGHT BUTTONS!"  You aren't thinking straight in the euphoria of winning. This above. This was BAD.

OK but the Nats easily take the win and move onto Game 4 tonight.  I was speculating on what I'd ideally want and figured I don't like sooo many days off before playing again. So if I could control things I would lose tonight with Corbin going 4, Suero, Elias, Guerra, Voth - whoever is on the roster - eating up the remaining 5 innings. This way Corbin isn't pushed and everyone gets a chance to throw because you never know who you are going to need. Then either late tomorrow (rain) or Thursday Anibal goes an easy dominant 7, Doo and Hudson finish out the win.  But of course I can't control everything, so hope for a win to get it over with.

What's happening now is an average offense in a slump is facing great pitching. The results are what you see - dominance.  The Cardinals can't score first, they can barely score, and they can't then match-up like they would like to keep the game in their hands.  Instead they have to play catch-up.  Honestly what I think happened with the Cardinals is they went into Game 1 thinking "We don't need to gameplan Sanchez and get him out early! Our bats are on fire! We'll knock him out!" and then Sanchez was game for that aggressive approach. They went down and woke up thinking "Jesus, we gotta beat some great pitchers coming up. We really screwed up" and started playing VERY tight.  Just look at last night.  One bouncing single through the infield by Eaton and they start choking. There's no leeway for the Cardinals. They are ready to pack it in at a moment's notice now.

On the Nats side - if Kendrick is Hot Howie - that helps the Nats tremendously.  You can work around Rendon and Soto but you can't work around 3 guys without giving up something. In fact Soto is totally struggling right now. But Howie has picked it up and honestly that's all the Nats need with the Cardinals looking as dead as they can.

I know how it works. Nats lose tonight with the Cardinals actually scoring runs and the thoughts become "ok gotta win tomorrow because we want to win at home and oh no, the bats have woken up and if they get back to St Louis they just have to win one to get back to Flaherty and he's not going to be off twice and have bad defense..." and the usual spiral into the strange world of "favorite depression" So win tonight. Get it done. Get it over.


34 comments:

Harper said...

Oh as for NY bashing the simple truth is this - the dumbest most obnoxious fans are the ones you are going to interact with the most and NY having the most fans is going to have the most dumbest and obnoxious fans as well. It's simply hard to avoid interacting with them. Teams with "good fans" are teams that lose and don't have many fans so the one guy screaming "TATIS is GOING TO TATTOO YOU. DC SUCKS! POLITICIANS! PADRES RULE!" you can just walk around him.

Anonymous said...

Lets go 1-0 and get it done. This City has waited 86 years to play in a WS game. It ain't over yet. Go NATS!

Josh Higham said...

As for NY bashing also - Harper is probably right that bad NY fans are common just because there are so many NY fans, but here's another take:

We all undoubtedly have many places to talk about the Nats, including many place where people love to bash on the Yankees together. At work, at home, on numerous online places. Is it so hard to just talk about baseball and not Yankees fans here? This blog, which we all love to visit, exists because of a cool Yankees fan.

Like, is the goal of Yankee fan bashing here to prove that Nats fans can be dumb and obnoxious too?

Anonymous said...

Harper, you're absolutely right to make the point that the volume of innings the Nats' starters have thrown may affect those starters, especially next season, and especially Strasburg. It's a risk, but I don't know there's anything that reasonably can be done about it.

At the same time, your criticism of leaving Stras in last night is breathtakingly over the top. It's almost as though the fan in you is looking for straws to grasp at. Strasburg aint pitching until a week from today at the earliest. He's had multiple starts with 117 pitches in the past and lived to tell the tale. His stuff was good - he struck out the last two guys he faced and the hits in that inning were not hit particularly well. I think you're right that the *wise* decision was to take him out given the score of the game. But this is not a big error or a consequential decision.

And this is part of a larger pattern with you and Strasburg. You've predicted eight of the last zero career-ending Strasburg injuries. Your model is broken. Even if he does get injured going forward, you can't claim credit for it because you've incorrectly predicted it so many times before!

cass said...

Last night was most likely Stras's last start (but possibly not last appearance) at Nats Park this year. I was getting very worried about the pitch count and thought it was kinda reckless, but enjoyed watching him gut out the 7th. Been waiting a decade to see him pitch in the NLCS at Nats Park.

If the Nats win one of the next two games at home, I am assuming Scherzer opens the world series and Stras pitches game 2. That would mean Stras would have to pitch on short rest to pitch at Nats Park. If they clinch in game 6, though, Stras would presumably pitch games 1 and 5 of the World Series and so pitch at home again if the World Series isn't a sweep.

Anonymous said...

Is there any good resources to understand the effect of pitchers usage on the next season? I can think of a few recent examples (e.g., Boston, NYMs), but I'm guessing there are just as many pitchers who were perfectly fine (e.g., Houston, 2017 Boston), and that last year's Red Sox are an outlier*.

*Injured pitchers have been the Mets MO with or without the WS run.

JWLumley said...

@Josh Higham The goal of Yankees fan bashing is to prove that Harper is not a soulless automaton as he would lead you to believe. Also, it's just good-natured smack talk.

As for the Nats, they need to win tonight or tomorrow at the latest. I think an older team like them is less likely to get rusty and they need their rest to get ready for the Astros.

Harper said...

Anon @ 7:22 - he's had 4 with 117 or more and certainly not this deep in a year. to do that FOR NOTHING is crazy. It is. If it had even been like 4-0 and Davey was like "look I just don't trust the pen" you can see it but 6-0? come on. It's that combination - a bad decision made for no reason that puts it over the top. It's planning to race home at 100MPH to catch the start of a baseball game, finding out it's delayed by rain and racing home at 100MPH anyway bc that was the plan.

I have a hard time remembering when I predictied a Stras injury. Wrong about Max getting hurt sure - I did that. But other than when he had that arm thing that sounded really close to a major injury and got me worried but ended up being nothing I don't recall anything.

Mr. T said...

I think leaving him in for the 7th was really just DM not taking any chances. I'm happy DM understands the bullpen situation; asking him to consider cumulative wear and tear on Stras's arm, and to consider the difference (if any) between 90 vs. 110 pitches...that's a little much for even the best managers. I think you had it right a few posts ago, Harper, when you said that the bullpen dumpster fire basically makes DM's job very simple. Starter goes 7; no need to get more complicated than that. Besides, one more win tonight and everyone gets a week to rest up.

Anonymous said...

Harper, I agree with you that the prudent thing to do was take him out at 90 pitches up 6-0. I would even call not taking him out an "error." But it's a "they put tomatoes on my sandwich when I asked them not to" level error, not something of any consequence. He was still pitching well and he's going to get a full week of rest. You are making a Big Deal out of something that is absolutely not a big deal, and it obscures your broader point - Stras is at a career high in innings, and the number is only going up, which may affect him next year and beyond. Seriously, with more than a week before his next start, do you think the extra 25 pitches last night will have ANY effect on him? I don't. There's actually a reasonable argument that stretching him out to 115+ could have benefits if he needs to be stretched out in the WS.

Re your broken Strasburg model, in 2016 and 2017 you kept predicting DOOM with Stras's injuries. I'm not going to the trouble of looking at old posts, but you consistently refused to accept "going to miss 30 days" or "going to miss three starts" or something similar at face value; instead you kept suggesting that Stras would be out for the season and "miss the playoffs, like last year." Most of this took place after the forearm issue in late 2016 that kept him out of the playoffs. And the next year, when you kept predicting DOOM, Stras finished third in CYA voting.

Anonymous said...

Totally agree with the need to pull Stras after 90 pitches. I was in the crowd last night and there were a lot of people calling for the same thing for the same reasons you articulated -- and we weren't even soulless. That said, we all cheered the gutsy performance given that our instincts were ignored by the Davey.

Positively Half St. said...

I realize that this is irrational, but while the Nats were only winning by 6, I could not forget the 2012 game against the Cards when the Nats blew a 6-0 lead and lost the NLDS. Winning the game to go up 3-0 was paramount and having Strasburg continue while there were men on base was exactly what I wanted. Logic aside, I am still happy with the decision. Two more innings with a big lead allowed Rainey and Rodney a lot of leeway to fail. I was amazed they did not but still can't admit that Strasburg should have come out earlier.

Anonymous said...

I don't like seeing a pitcher at 117 pitches. They have a life after baseball. These are not Robots. Ideally you want to see SP go 85-90 and then pass it to bullpen. The current Yankees team is built on that model. They have 5 amazing pitchers out of bullpen but their SPs are just okay.

As for Nats, I am so scared to see any of the 100 plus wins team. They are underdogs against both Astros and Yankees. But then they beat the mighty Dodgers. They might slay another 100 plus wins team.

G Cracka X said...

I agree that Stras should have been taken out, but I don't think it was 'criminal'. Let's not forget the NLDS Game 3 (at Nats Park), where Davey went to the bullpen and they promptly coughed up 7 runs. So, 6-0 ain't "insurmountable" for this team.

Anonymous said...

Also, saying Strasburg has "only four" starts at 117 or above is drawing some fine distinctions, Harper. In 2019 alone, he's had starts at or above 110 pitches six times. In his career, he's done that 30 times, with many other starts between 105-110.

Sometimes there are mountains. This is a molehill.

Rendonitis said...

It's true that Strasburg getting to 117 pitches was a mistake, but it is also true that it isn't that big of a deal with the extra rest Stras should be getting. The reason Harper brought it up is as a soulless automation he must examine the good and bad of each game. That was probably the only negative from last night so he must bring it up, and thus we overanalyze what is probably a minute mistake by DM.

Jay said...

I disagree. Have you guys been watching our bullpen? Say you bring in someone from the bullpen in the 7th. The Cardinals score 2-3 runs (definitely possible with our bullpen). Then Doolittle and Hudson have to pitch. This is the only 3 games in 3 days stretch in this series. If Doolittle and Hudson pitch last night, then maybe they can't pitch in game 5 if it gets to that. All the sudden you're looking at game 6 in St Louis over 1 inning for Strasburg. He had no intention of coming out. I think it was the right call. Now Doolittle and Hudson can go in each of the next two games and essentially can pitch each game the rest of this series if needed. Totally, worth it. 1 inning by Strasburg last night isn't going to make or break this season or next.

JE34 said...

Is there a more deserving pitcher for the NL Cy Young than Strasburg? He had 5 wins given up by the bullpen... so he could easily have had 22-23 wins, which would make him a lock in the minds of the voters. Now he's delivering in prime time.

BTW my new favorite dugout thing is the group hug for Strasburg when he comes out of a game, because it is so obviously not his thing, and it is forced upon him by his exuberant teammates. So great.

Sammy Kent said...

@PositivelyHalfSt.....wanting to avoid at all costs a repeat of 2012 Game 5 against the Cardinals is NOT irrational. Davey did the right thing letting Stras pitch the 7th and leaving him in to get out of trouble. Some of those bullpenners can give up eight runs before you can get anyone else warmed up.

I will say, to their defense however, that one of them could have bloody run for Matt Adams in St. Louis if Davey didn't want to use a position player as a pinch runner. Holy cow. You got a bunch of guys sitting in the bullpen doing nothing. Surely one of them knows how to run the bases without doing anything too stupid like getting picked off or tagging up with two outs. And ALL of them can run faster than Adams. It turned out to be inconsequential, but I cannot believe Davey or someone else on the staff didn't have the brains to think, "Hey, put (insert bullpen pitcher's name here) out there to run for Matt."

KO said...

@JE34 couldnt agree more. The hugs are fantastic. Saw this tweet too and makes it even better

https://twitter.com/bschaeffer12/status/1183957347858866177?s=20

WavingRed said...

Hand-wringing about Stras' total innings at this point in 2019 is a very esoteric exercise.. In all likelihood, Stras has one or two starts left, and could see another 16 innings at most (starts + relief). His stuff has been dominant. Yes the change-up was great again, but movement on the heater tells me he's still feeling strong.

Regarding 2020 - there's nothing that can be done about the high innings counts, so why let that steal enjoyment of this team's success? More than anything else, high innings are a result of healthy pitchers and working deep into a postseason. Who wouldn't sign up for that?

Nattydread said...

Martinez WANTED to take Strasburg out. Stras & Max now have a macho thing about finishing up on their own terms, so he wasn't going to be pulled.

Martinez: "I asked Suzuki what he thought, and he said to keep him in." WHAT?

But yeah, a minor issue. Its not like Stras was laboring. There's high stress and low stress 115 pitch games.

And they ARE looking at the World Series. This is all part of the mental build-up.

Natitude said...

I remember sitting in the stands in 2012 playing the Cards and we have a 7 run lead. And we didn't have Stras so we couldn't use Stras and we lost. I was not happy at all.

Seven years later and we are playing the Cards and we have a 6 run lead. This time we do have Stras so we use Stras and we win. I am very happy with that.

In addition Stras is going to be OK.

JWLumley said...

Looking at the historical stats, it does not look good for the Nats if they sweep. So I won't be crushed if they lose tonight, but win tomorrow. The World Series doesn't start for another week. That's a long layoff to try to stay sharp, although winning tomorrow would still mean a solid 6 day layoff.

Mike K said...

I agree with + 1/2 st and Jay. This was a big boy Very Important game, as opposed to all the others, and you can't have the pen blowing it. Up 8, sure, take him out. After the 7th but only up 6, then yea, bring in whoever (which they did). But not up 6 after 6. That's not enough. Maybe it's enough for a different game, but not this one. If the Cards came back, they have new life in the series. Even if they didn't completely but you had to pitch Hudson/Doolittle again, that's worse than an extra inning from Strasburg. Leaving Strasburg in for one extra inning to prevent that wasn't wrong IMO. *Especially* since he can now go on regular rest. That's another impact of the decision to keep him in - not only are you buying an increased likelihood that the Nats win the game (and can do so without Hudson/Doolittle), but you're also buying an increased likelihood that you won't need a starter out of the pen or Strasburg on short rest because the series is close.

Up 3-0, the Nats very likely won't need Strasburg until the WS in over a week. Davey knew that. Having him go 117 to increase that likelihood wasn't wrong.

Robot said...

Three innings in, I'm liking the team's chances right now...

Nick said...

We knew the Cards’ bats would wake up eventually...

JWLumley said...

Wow, Corbin ran out of gas. Regardless of resul , he should've gone to the pen there askance Goldie.

The Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew) said...

Umm. I can see your point. But I kinda liked him staying with Corbin. Let him leave with some confidence, let him leave with a win. And he totally owned Goldschmidt and Ozuna the whole game. I think he was a better bet against those guys than Rainey. I just don’t trust Rainey with much. Too many melt downs from that guy. I think he’s better starting an inning than being used as a fireman. He seems to get rattled. I think Corbin had it the whole way. I kinda feel like Corbin needed that win to close the inning. He’s been a little off in the post season, and they need him confident and ready to pitch well in the WS if they have a prayer. I think I woulda let him have Goldschmidt and Ozuna too. But again, I think I am of the mindset to let the starter clean up his own mess most of the time. It kinda just comes to down management style. And I’ve realized, I kinda like Dave Martinez. I like how he manages the game most of the time. MOST of the time.

Sammy Kent said...

7-4, Bases loaded, two outs, eighth inning, Carpenter coming up.

We're in trouble. Hope I'm wrong.

Sammy Kent said...

I WAS WRONG!!!! WOOOOOOHHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THE NATIONALS WIN THE PENNANT!!!!

Nick said...

WOOHOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

Anonymous said...

Nattydread is right about Strasburg... Davy went out to get him and Stras refused, then Suzuki backed him up. It worked out. In Harper's defense, most pitchers who have constant injuries, as Stephen was having for a few years, don't become locomotives out of nowhere... But it sure looks like Stephen figured things out. Maybe he started following Max's workout regimen. Who knows, but thank god.

John C. said...

Yeah, Harper's objections feel over the top to me, too. I was at the game, and would have been fine if he had hooked him and was fine with him leaving him in. Up 2-0 in a 7 game series is good, but not great. Up 3-0 is damned near lock territory. And you have six days to rest and recover before the WS starts. Run through the finish line, don't let up.

By the way, the "long layoff is bad" narrative is just that - a narrative imposed after the fact. I saw a graphic on the MLB Network that showed that six teams have had a six day layoff before the WS. They went 4-2 in the series (the only team with a seven day layoff lost). Not really enough there for predictive value.

After the WS we already have two opposite narratives to chose from:

(1) they play well and win! The layoff enabled an older roster and taxed pitching staff to rest & recover! or
(2) they lose! In which case the layoff upset their mojo/momentum.

The fact that there is a narrative regardless of what happens should tell us what we need to know about them.