How good are the Dodgers? Real good. They've are good hitting (1st in RS in the NL). Good in pitching (1st in RA). They have good starters (1st in Starter ERA) and good relievers (1st in Reliever ERA). They play good defense (1st in defensive efficiency). They hit the most homers (1st) and give up the least (1st) and are good pinch hitting (3rd best OPS - THIRD!!! GO TO YOUR ROOM! NO TV FOR A WEEK!)
They won 106 games. Pythag had them at 107 games. The most adjusted of the adjusted standings had them at 114.
So how do the Nats beat the Dodgers?
Well if I were cynical I'd say "They don't" but it's a five game series and even if you LOVE the Dodgers here the Nats probably still have a 25% chance at winning at least. When recounting all those stats up there the Nats were close to the Dodgers in nearly everyone. The Nats are very good and all they need is a break or two.
1) The Nats aces have to be aces - Corbin, Stras, and Max need to be dominant. We'd expect the Dodger pitching to hold the Nats to relatively low scoring games and we don't want the Nats digging deep into a bullpen that just the other day was defined as "Two-Deep" in a winner take all scenario. They all need to go 6ish at least and be dominant over that time frame
2) Keep it close when you get to Jansen - Kenley isn't KENLEY anymore and the Dodgers RP strength comes from depth rather than a few dominant arms. In the playoffs that can work in the opponents favor. I expect Roberts to be quick to use up these arms to find the best one working today but when it comes to the ninth it's Jansen always. If the Nats can get to Jansen with an opportunity to win they'll have at least 2-3 cracks at breaking him before Roberts extends the "best available" philosophy to closer as well. That might be enough to get those needed wins
3) Don't miss your opportunity to reset at the bottom of the line-up. The Dodgers don't have a great solution at one position, second base. They'll put Muncy there sometimes as a pure hitter and if they do - well then there is no hole in the line-up. But if they go with Lux or Hernandez that gives the Nats two ABs to reset before running the gauntlet again.* Don't screw it up and let the 8th and 9th spots drag things out
4) Hope Roberts out thinks himself. A couple years ago Roberts managed the Dodgers out of the World Series trying to find a platoon advantage. Could he do something like this again, leaving the clearly better players on the bench chasing some paper positive? Let's hope.
There you go. The biggest worries the Nats have is that the Dodgers (3rd in NL walks taken, 4th in P/PA) can work the
starters out of the game and force guys like Rainey and Strickland to
see important ABs. The other biggest worry is that the bats around Rendon and Soto go cold. When that happens and
the other team pitches around Anthony and Juan the offense grinds to a
miserable halt. The WC game didn't exactly take away this fear.
Tonight it's Corbin on the mound and things could go either way. We've talked about his home / road splits. They are real and they are not spectacular. 2.40 ERA, 0.990 at home. 4.18 ERA 1.392 WHIP on the road. Batters hitting .574 OPS vs .760. But with years of playing in Arizona, Corbin is very familiar with the Dodgers and does very well against them specifically. Dodger Stadium seems to be no issue.
The Dodgers counter with Walker Buehler who is one of their three top notch starters. He had great control and doesn't strike anyone out. He doesn't get hit much or give up many homers. Basically you have to find a way to score some runs against him. However, he has not been that good lately. He's been a lot wilder and that's opened the door for more mediocre outings.
The plan for the Nats is the same as any NLCS underdog. Get a win on the road, then finish them off at home. I've heard some "Sanchez should start if they win G1" but I'd still expect to see Strasburg either way on Friday - unless he literally can't go. The Nats get it, I think. They missed the playoffs last year. They stumbled real bad to start this one and had to go through the Wild Card. Rendon, their best player, might not be back and there is a chance Stras leaves too. Rizzo can weave some magic but right now it looks like they need to treat this as a last chance run.
*How do their pitchers hit. Mostly like pitchers. Ryu and Maeda are actually ok - for pitchers. The rest are typically bad. There is an exception in RP Rony Gonsolin - who was a very good hitter in college and hasn't had that worked out of him yet. But I can't imagine a scenario not involving a 13+ inning game where he (or Maeda) is going to see an AB.
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Reading the tea leaves from the press availability last night, it sounds like they'll go with Stras in Game 2 as long as he feels up to it. If I'm the Nats and Corbin can't get through 6 innings, I would hope that they turn to Anibal first out of the pen for the middle innings, which would clear up who the Game 2 starter is.
As a general rule, the more innings that the top-4 starters plus Hudson and Doolittle can throw, the better.
Buehler vs. the Nats in LA back in May: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 walk 7 Ks. Great performance. The Nats actually won this game on the Parra grand slam, but it sure wasn't Buehler's fault.
Buehler vs. the Nats in DC on July 28: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R (4 earned), 3 walks 6 Ks.
Kinda mediocre. And obviously you can't count on the unearend runs.
bit.ly/2AGe8Hq
Nats Twitter Celebrating the WC Win. Awesome.
I noticed the Seinfeld allusion. Can't remember the last time there was one of those on a post here
I'm with NavyYardSteve--get out of this round at all costs. The NLCS should be the easiest challenge of the 4 rounds a championship team would need to face, so go with a standard 4 man rotation then, in a 4 game series, and hope for the best against NYY and HOU, but first, do absolutely everything you can against LA.
Corbin for 6+ then the pen is great! But if Corbin has a rough 3 or 4 IP, but with a puncher's chance (say, for example, a 3-1 Dodger lead with Corbin looking wild or hittable, a familiar situation), let Anibal take 3+ innings, and set up Stras, Max, Corbin, Stras for the rest of the series. Of course, in a blowout let Corbin + Voth or Strickland or whoever kinda wear it so the good arms are fresh for G2.
If the Nats can get through LA, they've got to feel great about their chances at the pennant against one of the very good but not great (Atlanta hurt, St. Louis not great) teams in the other half of the bracket.
As an aside, I think that Stras' performance in the WC game is another datapoint favoring the 2012 SS Shutdown. We'll never be able to say either way definitively, but he sure has lasted a long time since the Nats followed the advice of medical experts.
Matt Harvey provides an example of what can happen when the opposite decision is made: The Mets made the World Series! But Harvey was never the same
A win tonight would be absolutely massive from a morale/momentum/intangible standpoint. It extends the win streak to double digits (technically meaningless but gives you that milestone), gives the Nats the HFA for the series, puts Roberts under scrutiny for not going with Ryu (Cy candidate) or Kershaw (future HOF) even if it definitely is the right move to go with Buehler, and puts the Dodgers squarely again into the narrative of "choking in the playoffs".
But let's be realistic, the Nats offense hasn't looked all that great lately and it comes down to Soto and Rendon. Those two need to get hot (hopefully Soto is on his way after that rocket single in the 8th).
I tend to not think much of home road splits in a single season. It can be affected so much by his starts tending to be against better teams on road and easier ones at home, or 2-3 bad outings. Now if he historically has had problems on the road or at Dodger Stadium that’s a different kettle of fish. But I don’t think that’s true.
I think if you’re the Nats you have to pitch the aces in this round as if it’s the World Series and go all out, because this might very well be the toughest round left (who knows you may end up with the twins or rays in WS or the Yankees with hittable starters, etc.)
The Nats offense is entirely capable of knocking out the Dodgers starters by the middle innings and getting the softer underbelly of Dodgers middle relief, where Roberts might throw our young kids who aren’t comfortable or something (May, Gonsolin, etc.) I think the Nats best chance in this series is for their offense to simply get hot. As in Rendon hits, Soto hits, Turner hits, and one more person is hot throughout also, with nobody being total zeroes.
Not my comment; heard it on the radio this morning:
Strasburg should only pitch G2 if he feels great. Like Harper reiterated, we have a "Two-Deep" bullpen. Better that a fresh Strasburg goes six or seven innings in G3 than a tired Strasburg going five innings in G2. Too much of a chance that a Rainey or Suero implodes and we come away with the loss anyway, even with five scoreless Strasburg innings.
That being said, my guess is that Martinez starts Strasburg in G2 if we win tonight, and starts Sanchez in G2 if we lose tonight.
I love that with all that is going on the country and the world, my main focus is: "Will Strasburg start game 2?"
All joking aside, nervous about Corbin tonight. The Dodgers are patient!
Corbin has chewed up the Dodgers from what I saw. He has an ERA of under 1 is what they were saying on MLB after the wildcard game. I agree that if Stras is going to have an abbreviated start then go with Sanchez. If Stras thinks he can go 110+ pitches then he goes in game 2 no matter what win or lose tonight. Believe it or not I think tonight will be more difficult for the Nats. They've been hammering left handed starters of late. Kershaw is Kershaw, but Ryu really was not very good in the second half. They've beat up Rich Hill before. We'll see. I'm ok no matter what happens. House money now. Hopefully, the Nats feel the same, loosen up, and get on a roll like the Caps did after finally beating the Penguins.
In baseball you hit baseballs. In hockey you hit opponents. No more Capitals' analogies please.
Start Sanchez tomorrow, no matter what happens tonight. Strasburg in game 3 with Max and Corbin if we're leading 2-1 for games 4 and 5. But if we're down 2-1, I'd start Corbin in game 4. Pitch lefty against the Dodgers in any must-win situation. Besides, Max ain't worth a dang in post-season games. He just isn't.
All the Max hate makes me laugh. His K% is the same as it ever was, best in baseball outside of the Astros and rock solid the second half. BB% is down a tick but not much. Only thing that changed is a like 3 or 4 more fly balls went over the fence.
Max is the best pitcher on the planet. The idea of skipping him is absurd. And I say this as probably the biggest Strasburg fan among this blog's commenters going back to while he was still in college.
If something really was wrong with Max, his K% would be down. It ain't. He's fine. He's a flyball pitcher and sometimes a few more go over the fence. It's going to be cooler and less humid, hopefully, and that will be less of a problem. Pity he can't pitch in the huge confines of Dodger Stadium.
Strasburg Game 2
All I have to say is, go Nats! The Dodgers are a damned good team (using "damned" in the sense of hyperbole and not in the sense of people actually selling their souls to infernal powers...that would be the Cardinals) and we're going to have to be both good and a little bit lucky to beat them. Let's hope the aces pitch like aces, the hitters are on, and the bullpen doesn't melt down.
The Dodgers are the better team. The stats all say it and since this is a site written by a stat hound and populated by stat hounds there should be little debate over that statement.
But that means little in the playoffs. This is especially true in a five game series where a hot bat, the baseball gods and good and or bad luck can determine the outcome of a series.
The Dodgers have been coasting for months. Can they turn it on like a light switch now that the playoffs are here? The one thing the Nats have going for them is that they believe in themselves and in their ability to come from behind. That is a psychological advantage that is crucial when you are the underdog playing against the team everyone expects to advance.
Tonight is the crucial game. Pull out an unexpected victory and you get labelled the team of destiny. Not a bad label to have this time of the year.
The team believes in itself. It would be nice if the baseball gods intervened in the series on behalf of the Nats--a makeup for what has happened in the past. As for the starter in game two, it won't matter. Right now the team believes it can win no matter who starts. Just find a way to win tonight.
@cass
There's no Max hate here. Just Max Facts. Post-season Max isn't regular season Max. I know all the sabermetricians in the world refuse to believe in intangibles, but for some intangible reason Max has a case of A-Rod Syndrome. I love Max. When I have game tix I hope the rotation brings Max around because I feel like any time he pitches it could be a nono or even a perfect game. But in the post-season he's as likely to get tattooed for a couple of innings as he is to pitch seven immaculate ones. How in the bluejohnhell can anyone so casually brush off "two or three more balls going over the fence" like it's an inconsequential inconvenience? Other than that, Mrs. Kennedy, how was Dallas? Are you serious? YOU CAN'T GET ANY MORE CONSEQUENTIAL THAN A HOME RUN!
Despite not scoring, I love the way our 1-5 hitters works the count against Buehler. Cabrera? He didn’t feel like doing that. Robles? Well, he never does that. Gomes? He can’t see the baseball. But I’m not upset because the team (most of them) has a solid, patient approach. That will pay dividends eventually. It has to.
Yeah. Dozier for Cabrera tomorrow. Suzuki catches every game from here on out - Gomes basically walks up there with an 0-3 count, it’s laughable. And Robles.... he’s lucky MAT is sitting behind him, but he’s whiffing at everything.
Hey Rainey walked a guy and gave up a bloop, but had good stuff. I know, I'll bring in a guy with an ERA of almost 6 and not warm anyone else up in the pen. - Dave Martinez probably.
@ole pbn
not to mention that Gomes kept screwing over the pitchers by carrying borderline pitches out of the zone. With how garbage Will Little was tonight calling balls and strikes, you can't be giving the man reasons to make terrible calls.
Robot umps please. Rendon and Kendrick's called-3rd-strikes were egregious. Inconsistent and terrible back there.
The stadium is half empty before the 9th inning began. Vin Scully was wasted on those fans.
And of course, you can't win if you don't hit.
@CP - YES dude. The difference between the catchers was incredible. Will Smith framing a ton, Yan Gomes bizarro-framing.
Boys looked like they were nursing hangovers.
Blech. That game just stunk up the joint all around. We walked too many, had costly errors, and the bullpen stunk....but we made up for it by not hitting.
Try again tomorrow. The only happy note was the Cardinals rallying from two down in the eighth inning to whip the Braves.
That was a garbage performance in every respect. Like. It’s ok to lose to the Dodgers. They are better. But they didn’t even compete tonight. 7 walks. 2 errors, a passed ball, 2 hits. Again, I have to say it. The Nats simply do not resemble themselves at the plate when the playoffs start. I don’t know why. I don’t know why the pressure makes them tighter than any other playoff team. But it seems to. It’s extraordinary. For example, they cannot stop swinging out of the zone. Especially above the zone. While the Dodgers are totally controlled and don’t swing at crap and wait for the pitchers to come to them. And not for nothing.....it would be nice if Rendon did something. Obviously playoffs are small sample, but i can’t recall an important hit or even an XBH from the guy in October. And yes I understand he is being walked occasionally. But he also hasn’t done damage in a WHILE going back to the regular season. If you’re an MVP level player who won’t take 210 mil, here’s your chance to show us!
@Cass - Even if Max gives up one dinger, it's enough for the Nats to lose if the Nats don't score. And that would have been the case last night. Seemed like the Nats weren't even there.
@JE34 - I grew up a Dodger fan. It was always a case of fans showing up in the 3rd and leaving in the 6th. Something about traffic and it being a PITA to get to the stadium. In the case of Vin Scully, he'd do 1-3 and 7-9 on the radio so you could hear the the greatest announcer of all time in the comfort of your own car - while sitting in traffic.
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