Enjoy yourselves. I'm going to bed!
Update : You are still champs! And will be for at least a year or forever depending on how you want to look at it.
Anyway just wanted to let you know I won't be posting today and tomorrow (and if you follow me on Twitter I probably won't be on there much) Why? Well because after you win it all there's a tendency to mythologize what just happened. For the Nats that means making a legit great story into The Greatest Story Ever Told. That doesn't mesh with a contrarian soulless automaton. I'll just want to pick out the things said that are wrong. I can think of a few dozen already. And that's just in Boz's column!
But I imagine no one wants this when they are trying to celebrate and there's all off-season to do such things so enjoy the next few days, go to the parade if you can and I'll see you... well probably Monday.
147 comments:
YES!
IT HAPPENED. I WANT TO PEN 35,000 WORDS ABOUT THIS BEFORE I GO TO SLEEP!
Incredible!!! They couldn't make it easy, but they really did it!!!! We're gonna have a parade baby!!!
Finally! What a gutty effort. They were so friggin stout this post season. Amazing perseverance.
Went to class every Tuesday and Wednesday night after work until 10pm during the playoffs. Missed half of every playoff game the boys played those nights. But they won every game on nights I had class. Yes, I went to class tonight and got in the car as Spanky was coming up to bat in the 7th. And the rest is history!
The boys did it! Champs!
Hope you all enjoy it!
Great last 2 games. Great post season run. Great second half. Fantastic team. Congratulations to DC fans!
Fight Finished!! Yeeeaahhh!!
Improbable end to an improbable season! What a ride! Well done, Nats!
In April of 2007, I had season tickets in section 406 of RFK. There was a dead mosquito on handle of the urinal in the men's room outside of 406. That dead mosquito had been on that same urinal since September of 2006.
Tonight was for that mosquito.
WOW! JUST WOW!
I am so proud of this team. Congrats to all of them, and for sure that includes Davey Martinez, Mike Rizzo, Kevin Long, and the Lerners.
A truly great season. This one will have books written about it. Legendary stuff--five elimination games. And sooo many heroes. Max gutting it out, Stras teaching a master class in pressure pitching, Rendon extra cool and extra clutch, ancient Howie with key hit after key hit, Corbin coming through out of the pen, Eaton with so many big hits in his first ever post-season, "little" Juan Soto showing he's a giant of a man in the field and at the plate, Sanchez's near no-no, Huddy and Doo solid from the pen (not ALL the time...), Suzuki's clutch HR, Zim's two big HRS. And I'm sure I'm leaving someone out, but what a TEAM. And yes, DM, did himself proud as a manager (not PERFECT, mind you). I know analytics is king, but these guys played with chemistry AND talent. They made use of the off days to stretch out their BP and avoid the weak links (and even Rodney and Rainey had a couple of moments). Such a great team. Such a satisfying series...of SERIES!
Amazing game, amazing series, amazing postseason, amazing year.
Unbelievable. The Washington Nationals are 2019 World Series Champions!!!!
Nats Park was literally shaking tonight like RFK in 2005. No one in the stadium sat down after Rendon's home run. What a great comeback!
I still can't believe Hinch just watched his Astros lose the world series and Cole just sat on his butt in the bullpen. What on earth was he thinking??? Quite possibly worse managing than Roberts in game 5 of the NLDS.
Cole is well rested for tomorrow though. Pity there's no game tomorrow!
Still can't believe it! Watched the final innings here in Europe in the middle of the night and I am still super excited.
Enjoy the party in DC. Unfortunately way too far away for me...
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have some aces on your team
The starting lineup's a machine,
But not enough to win a ring
So fortify that staff for "Murderer's Row"
And let's play clean
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have some aces on your team
I remember down in Houston
The games were gettin' tight
When a Nats fan in the back stood up and yelled,
"Finish the fight!"
He said, "we love how you're playin'
So far, its been a dream,
But don't forget the strength of the team
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have some aces on your team
The starting lineup's a machine,
But not enough to win a ring
So fortify that staff for "Murderer's Row"
And let's play clean
If you're gonna play in Texas,
You gotta have some aces on your team
(Adapted from "If you're gonna play in Texas" by Alabama)
Yasssssssss!!!!! Amazing...what a fabulous team win to seal the championship!!! These guys!!!
We are the champions, my friend (s), yes we are the champions. Feels so good the last day of this October of 2019. Will never forget it.
So proud to be a NATS fan.
Go D.C.! Go NATS!
And all SEVEN games went to the road teams! Who the hell woulda thunk that that would ever happen.
Then again, who'd a thunk back in May that the Nats would get to the playoffs, much less the Series, or to WIN the Series?
What's really cool is that there no - as in zero - football on the front of the Post sports section. At least for today.
Wow what an enjoyable, entertaining bunch to watch. I'm so happy for all these guys that have grinded their whole career for this. So happy to see them finally pull it out and I've looked forward to seeing a nats world series for quite so long after so many years of bad luck and postseason disappointment!
Many thanks to our Soulless Automaton for providing the best nats blog on the interwebs, a first rate accompaniment to this 2019 ride. Now start hating the Yankees like a good American. ;-)
I have never watched the champagne party for that long before. Is it a thing to use the trophy as a Budweiser funnel? Perhaps it is now...
Dear Lerners and Rizzo, two things:
1) Thank you
2) Please fill the two nearest dump trucks full of money, back one up to Rendon's house, and the other to Strasburg. And hurry.
@G Cracka X: Very nice, sir or madam!
@soulless automaton: Thank you, sir, for providing clear-headed coverage throughout the year (and all previous years). I look forward to you excoriating the facile narratives that the believers in "momentum" and "chemistry" and "destiny" will trot out with numbing repetitiveness. I will, meanwhile, take heart in the fact that our really good baseball team just won several short series (and a single game before that) against several other really good baseball teams. And then start into five months of hand-wringing over how a family of billionaires can best allocate their resources so we have the best chance to do it again.
I will say this, as far as #narratives go: this is why it's worth it to try to play for the WC game if it's within reach, not just fold your hand if a division championship is out of reach. The playoffs are a crapshoot, yes, but you don't get to shoot if you don't get invited to the craps game.
I know our soulless automaton host doesn't like narratives because they are mostly nonsense and distract from actually useful analysis, but man the narratives around this team are so good. The oldest team in MLB, the come-from-behind wins in elimination games, the baby shark/dance party/group hug clubhouse vibe, the 12-games-under May record, the grit/determination, the taking down of historically good teams, the four World Series road wins... Boswell's going to have to spend all offseason writing articles discussing them all.
lol hey guys, remember when the narrative was Strasburg is a wilting flower and the Nats can't win a playoff series?
I do think there is an interesting discussion to be had about this season in light of the controversy around shutting down Strasburg in 2012. He's now the 2019 World Series MVP. You can never know what would have happened, but this season's unlikely World Series run through the Wild Card slot seems to vindicate both that decision, and the general "don't sell the farm to go all-in on a single year" approach Rizzo has taken to building the team. I've always felt instinctually that the "be generally good and maximize your number of chances to get hot and lucky in October" was the approach most likely to get you to a World Series, but I know our host is more of an "all-in" partisan. This would be a great subject for a post-World Series post.
One of my favorite things about this team: The only two guys to have previously won a world series were Hunter Strickland and Davey Martinez. That means all 25 guys were doing this for the first time. Such a great game, such a fun team to root for.
I don't care if he hits .250 for the next decade, the Nats should spend all their monies on Rendon. That guy is amazing. Also, after last night, I think Strasburg definitely comes back one way or another.
Finally, can we all agree not to go back and look at or bring up any comments that may have been made in May? I think it's in all of our best interest.
Cheers Harper! Thanks for all you have done to help us understand our team!
A fantastic run that had me and my entire family on the edge of our seats for all of October. Memories to last a lifetime and then some. My 13yo son plays baseball, my 10yo daughter plays softball, my wife loves the game (and lets me spend way too much time coaching and watching it) - they all stayed up late and watched every single game in the WS (and all the other games that led here). We all danced when the final out was recorded, like fools in our living room.
This is a fantastic moment for everyone who loves the game in this area. This team is so much fun. Who cares about superlatives or exaggerations? Sure, they are not the greatest team of all time, but special enough to do something great like this. They were Vegas dogs in every single game of the World Series and most (maybe all?) of the Dodgers series. Max was like a +175 dog in Game 1 alone, and I'm pretty sure there's no freaking way Max has ever been a +175 dog prior to that start. Stras is getting the credit he has always been due (Harper, I know you're a huge Stras advocate and have been forever). Soto makes the game insanely fun and look way too easy. Rendon is so sublime in his greatness it's comical. Zim deserves this. Kendrick is so damn clutch it hurts. Corbin was nails last night when we needed him the most. Hudson is an amazing comeback story. Cabrera turning in a 2nd run with the Nats and playing a huge role. Michael A. Taylor along for the wild ride? Sure why not. Eaton had a huge WS and Trea in his celebratory NCST rugby helmet and ski goggles will never not be great. Zuk and Gomes were steady cogs.
I love them all.
I may still be affected by being up until the late morning hours celebrating on a weeknight, but damn it's gonna be hard to work today!
We did it!!!!!!
@Soulless Harper, thank you for running this blog! This is one of the first sites I check each day when I have a break, and the writing is excellent! Keep up the great work, and the 'barroom'-style conversation with the commenters. Enjoy a well-deserved rest
@cass Yes, I am SHOCKED that Cole didn't make it into the game. Thought Hinch would pull him out for a MadBum-style finish 'em off performance.
@KennyB Great point about the Stras shutdown. We'll never know if it was the 'right' decision or not, since we can't go back and run an alternate scenario where he pitches in the 2012 postseason. But we can absolutely say that at the very least, it didn't prevent Stras from pitching for many more years, and ultimately winning a World Series MVP. And it might have helped with those things.
And what do you figure the Nats odds are?
Nats in 7 - 20 %
Heck, I was willing to take 5% for this group of players. They gave us so much joy and anxiety this post season.
Baseball has a special place in my heart.
I'd also love to know more about the ways in which the team is historic. Obviously the all road wins for the championship is historic for any American sport, and the number of elimination games they won was I think historic. But what about the caliber of the teams they beat? Like has any WS champ ever gone through multiple teams with 106+ wins to take the championship? Where do the 2019 Nats land on the ranking of WS teams by average age? What about number of come-from-behind wins in October? And can we cross-reference come-from-behind wins with elimination game wins to establish a grit index? I need a detailed analysis of the various ways that this WS is the greatest ever.
I know Harper says it a great story but not The Greatest Story, and he is allowed to be wrong about this because his contrarian style is what makes this site good, but when he's done with his narrative sabbatical we must discuss all the different ways this is The Most Amazing Thing That Has Ever Happened.
Hey Kenny- Jayson Stark has you covered. There is a paywall, but I think your first article is free.
https://theathletic.com/1339869/2019/10/31/stark-do-you-believe-in-miracles-the-highly-unlikely-tale-of-the-2019-world-series-champions/
Why are people thanking Harper? It's not like he delivered a clutch double at last night's game.
Harper is the spider in the bouquet of flowers. That's why we read him. In any case, until (if ever) the euphoria wears off, no reader will care how soulless, automatonic, or contrarian his commentary will be.
"I need a detailed analysis of the various ways that this WS is the greatest ever."
Exactly, Kenny! That's not really Harper's thing, so we'll have to do it ourselves.
I'd just note that it's not only the WS, but their entire postseason run. Nats Park was DEAD for 7 innings during the Wild Card Game before the magic started. That Dodgers series was epic (the look on Kershaw's face after the Soto HR, and then in the dugout after Kendrick's slam). And the utter domination of the Cardinals, who caused us so much pain in 2012. To then beat the team with the SECOND BEST OFFENSE IN BASEBALL HISTORY, not to mention Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, in 7 games, and to come from behind to do it...that's really something.
I have to come clean. Back in May, I called this team dead. I said on Twitter they were done and it was time to sell off assets for a re-build. Obviously, I'm an idiot...but I'm still smiling today. Way to go Nats! Crow never tasted so good.
KB - I did look at that 106+ thing before and no no one has done this, though the Yankees knocking off the 116 win Mariners makes their "highest combined win total" hard to beat (I think the other team they beat was at 102 or 103)
SM - No I'm the one that when you say "These are the most beautiful flowers ever" researches to see if that's in fact the case.
I figured the Cardinals probably also knocked the combined opponent win total stat pretty hard, so not surprised the Nats aren't tops in that ranking.
Unrelated thought to preserve here for posterity, since we will all forget this in time: How weird is it that one of the games was started by Joe Ross? The Nats' entire post-season plan was based around creative use of the limited number of reliable pitchers and somehow one of the games was started by Joe Ross. Not to knock Joe Ross, but he mostly struggled and was only sometimes a starter even during the regular season this year, and through freak circumstances found himself with the ball in one of three World Series games played in Washington in the last 86 years.
I like Joe Ross and I hope he figures it out in the coming years and develops the potential we've seen in him in prior years, but it will never not be weird to me that he was a starter during the Nats' World Series championship run.
Here you go Astros fans:
Umpire Auditor
@UmpireAuditor
·
1m
#WorldSeries Game 7 Umpire Report
Name: Jim Wolf
Correct Call Rate: 88.9%
Calls helping #Nationals: 7
Calls helping #Astros: 12
Largest miss: 4.43 inches
Worst rate and the largest miss. Fantastic battle between the teams, but we can't keep letting human umps detract from that.
@Harper - Have you stated who your favorite player is on the Nationals team this year? If it's not Rendon (I'm trying to think of the best performer with the most down-to-earth personality), I'd like to know who it is.
When the reporter asked Rendon how they can generate more offense (after the Game 5 loss) and he said: "See we have these bats...." it kind of screamed Harper.
Tell me I'm wrong. And if so, I guess tell me it's because soulless automatons don't have favorites.
@JW atrocious, but to be fair the biggest miss was in our favor.
This post-season Nationals run to the World Series Championship has so many similarities to NC State's national championship run in 1983 it's almost spooky. Well, it is Halloween, isn't it.
Both the 83 Wolfpack and the 19 Nationals were regarded as good, but not great teams. Neither finished in first place in the regular season. They were good enough to make the post-season, but just barely, needing late-season runs just to qualify.
The Wolfpack suffered a mid-season slump primarily because of a broken foot injury to Washington, D.C. native Derek Whittenburg. The Nationals suffered an early season slump in large part due to a broken finger injury to their leadoff hitter and starting shortstop--NC State alumnus Trea Turner.
The Wolfpack was the underdog in all ten post-season games they played except one, the NCAA opener against Pepperdine. The Nationals were the underdog in every post-season series except one, the opening round wild-card game against Milwaukee.
The Wolfpack trailed in the second half of every game except one: the national semifinal against Georgia, the last game before the national championship round. The Nationals trailed in every series (including the wild card game) except one: the NLCS, the last round before the World Series.
The Wolfpack came from behind in the waning stages of eight of their ten post-season victories. The Nationals came from behind in the waning stages of all five of their win-or-go-home elimination games.
Both NC State coach Jim Valvano and Washington Manager Dave Martinez adopted the mantra "Don't Ever Give Up." during their teams' post-season runs.
Both the Wolfpack and the Nationals beat teams from Houston in the championship round.
I check in here from time to time to get the robots take. The soulless one will never buy this, but the baseball gods chose the nationals this year... because they played for each other and dugout danced and got 43,000 people dressed in red to chomp their hands together for a kids song. He will never believe it but it’s a fact. Just because you can’t quantify magic does t mean it doesn’t exist.
Sammy Kent, as a Nats fan and an NCSU alum, I demand that you expand this account into a full-length non-fiction book.
@jwlumley
I stand by my comment from May that they should keep cool guys on the team to do cool things. I enjoyed the cool guys doing cool things.
A few thoughts before I turn it over to thanking Harper and congratulating everybody:
(1) I wouldn’t have taken out Greinke. One homer by a great hitter and a walk caused by a terrible call on one pitch to Soto? Guy was rolling. BUT if you take him out, you gotta take him out for Cole IMO.
(2) 1 thing to mention that hasn’t really been. The Nats played excellent defense in this series—and quite well overall in the playoffs. The catchers blocked everything. Rendon was literally Brooks Robinson over there. Turner made multiple big plays last few nights (the short hop rocket by Brantley in shift against Stras with guys on 2nd and 3rd....the ball deep in the hole last night), besides Howie’s NLDS, the right side of infield was ok, and even though his best catches were mostly in the losses....Robles made like 2 INSANE catches and 3 additional very good ones. The Astros personnel is far better defensive players but the Nats were quite solid and matched up well.
(3) The Nats were 10-0 in the games in which Max or Stras made an appearance (start or appearance). Unreal. Did not lose.
(4) How about this: would you believe the Nats bullpen did not blow a single lead in the postseason? They made some losses more lopsided and maybe didn’t keep as many games close as a great pen could have. But they didn’t LOSE a single game. (Maybe they contributed to leaving a starter like Sánchez etc in too long but...) kudos to them. And I think it really speaks well to the way Davey managed around a gaping hole in this team’s middle relief. Last night for example....the call to keep Corbin in and not try to get like 7-9 outs from Doo and Hudson isn’t an obvious one. He made right decision and rode what was working. I thought Davey overall managed quite well this postseason and the back of the pen was great. (I would have preferred Doo to be the one throwing last pitch...but hey. Whatever!)
(5) Boy I really hope they keep Rendon. He was spectacular on both sides of the ball. When the team needed somebody to start a comeback or get the big hit...he did it. Every time. And I also think he and Soto could be the best 3-4 combo in baseball for years to come. I hope they do what they need to to keep him. Maybe he wants to to live in Texas or something but I would hope Lerners don’t get out bid.
(6) Strasburg. What can you say. So happy for him. I love to watch the guy pitch. And what a performance.
(7) Corbin earned his money with those 3 shut down innings. Even if he sucks for next 5 years....
(8) I tell you what. Not sure the Nats win this WS without the much maligned Eaton trade. He was excellent in the WS. The quiet hero. In middle of a LOT of rallies and HUGE hits even back in NLDS
I will always remember this team, not just because they won, but because of how insanely fun they were (when the bullpen wasn’t coming in.) what a ride.
My take aways from this playoff run:
(1) Robot umps are needed for balls and strikes. We got help at key times, and hurt at almost as key times - Umps can still make other judgment calls (even the awful call against Trea)
(2) Every manager overthinks it - we were helped by a hamstrung roster which forced the right usage (Thank you for the assist, AJ and Dave)
(3) Everything in this game is random - Talent and luck, but the first lets the second happen. I just love it worked out for us for once
(4) I truly dislike the stras was soft early in his career narrative and turned it around. The guy always works (and worked) hard, and continues to get better at his job through experience. But man, I'm glad we have him and Max.
(5) DC baseball fans learned how to pick their team up in the playoffs. I hated the game 5s where people would sit for 70% of the game and when a bad luck stroke happened, they'd shut off.
(6) Houston has great fans too. I'm happy we played them and that team. I haven't cared much for every time we played St Louis, so the juxtaposition made that even more clear. Thank you Houston.
(7) I guess we can't fire Davey
(8) I am so happy, and got absolutely no work done today. Thank you Harper for providing a place for all of us to engage, good and bad!
No need to have an extended discourse on this. But in terms of unlikely paths to winning a title and being an incredible story, I would disagree with Harper’s take that it’s merely really cool or whatever. Read this piece. The Nats did like 9 different things that have literally never been done before. It was an utterly improbable insane run that probably will never be seen again. Trust me—read:
https://theathletic.com/1339869/2019/10/31/stark-do-you-believe-in-miracles-the-highly-unlikely-tale-of-the-2019-world-series-champions/
Good Karma Nats win the World Series. With respect for the game
Strasburg. Cool, intense and soft spoken.
Rendon. Half smile on his face all the time. He knows he's good but keeps his mouth shut until the very end. "You see, we have these things we call bats..." Indeed.
Kendrick. Quietly comes through at 36. No drama at all, just 2 key home runs.
Martinez: Earnest leader, under-rated, simple messages. His comradery with players makes up for his lack of photo-shopped charisma
Eaton: Makes the hits. Classic below the radar underdog.
Max: Doesn't let stardom cloud his vision. Tears up at press conference announcing that he can't pitch, tears up with Annabel after the win. His best performances are when he doesn't have his stuff.
Soto: More youthful amusement than arrogance. Still playing for fun and it shows.
Zimmerman: Earned good karma from years of experienced failure.
The list goes on. Harper hates mythologizing and he is right. But still. This is a great demonstration that team work off the field is real and can't be assessed statistically.
Now the parade.
You can have all the analytics in the world, if you don't have chemistry and fun, you may not reach THERE. This was the greatest TEAM performance I have seen second only to Miracle on Ice.
@BxJaycobb - Can you give us the gist of the Athletic article? Paywalls are a downer, regardless of the content.
I love the fact that after the NLDS all the HOT TAEKS were "How could you pitch Kershaw in relief when you had actual top-notch relief pitchers like Maeda and Kolarek all ready to go?" and after the WS they were "How could you pitch your best relievers like Harris and Osuna when you had Cole ready to go in relief?"
It's almost like baseball is a game where the quality of the process does not lead 1:1 to the quality of the outcome or something. Or that good hitters like Rendon, Soto, and Kendrick will sometimes beat good pitching.
@DP Great point!
@BxJ I thought about the bullpen thing too (remember when the Nats had an 'unheard of for almost any MLB team in history, and never for a playoff team' WPA of -10.82?????). Well, I thought that they hadn't blown any leads all post-season, but they did once: a 1-run lead in the 6th inning of the NLDS. That's close to as low-leverage of a blown save as you can get. They certainly didn't have any face-smacking 8th inning or 9th inning meltdown blown saves, like they did in the regular season.
At the end of the day, its still shocking: the Nats 'pen was called upon in 17 games in the postseason, including in all 7 games of the World Series against one of the best lineups in the history of baseball (by wRC+), and they only blew 1 lead. Just about nobody outside of a total homer would have predicted that going in. And that's just ONE of the absolutely bananas things that happened this postseason!
To clarify: it was Game 3 of the NLDS
Fun fact: the Nats actually didn't finish last in bullpen 'meltdowns' in the regular season, but they had the least number of 'shutdowns' (Fangraphs has a way of quantifying this, based on Win Probability added or lost)
Bx - People are getting oddly upset about me simply saying don't make this the Greatest Thing Ever. It's almost certainly a top 5 playoff run of the divisional era. It's just harder to parse that into something definitive than you think (which I'll note... Wednesday I guess. Monday will be a game review bc who doesn't want a game review a week after the game)
Dezo - big difference there is that Kershaw notably has... issues in the playoffs and to face RHB Rendon was an odd choice. (to be honest I thought Kershaw was a bad move but didn't have much issue with skipping Cole over for tried and true good relievers)
Usually when teams that win it all say, "Everyone counted us out." and "No one believed in us." It's crap. This is one time where it is absolutely true. No one in late May believed in this team and just about everyone counted them out.
Also, it's not like Cole was fresh. The guy pitched two days earlier. Some folks are acting like they left 5-days-of-rest-Cole out of the game. Wth. There's every chance he would have blown up, lacked command, had a diminished fastball, etc.
But DP is right (above) - the credit goes to the hitters here, they won it, the pitchers didn't lose it. Hell, the pitch to Kendrick was low and away and he golfed it out with a 9-iron. It's not like Harris served up a 90 MPH meatball over the middle in a 3-1 count.
When they removed Greinke I was incredibly happy. He wasn't making mistakes, he got beat once by Rendon. Pretty sure the Nats felt the same way. If there was a mistake, that was it.
@Harper
I was thinking this morning that it's actually more likely than not that the Nats won the world series, especially out of the group of current franchises without a ring, when you factor in the amount of money this team has spent on payroll over the past 7 years.
Is it a miracle or is it hundreds of millions of dollars in investment (gambles) finally paying off in a sport with tons of outcome variance?
@Harper, what are the other top 5 playoff runs? 2015 Royals for sure...2004 Red Sox...what else?
Also, instead of doing work today I've been trying to rank the Nats top playoff moments. (I'm at 31 total moments right now, although that includes pitching performances which aren't really moments). I think Soto's HR off Kershaw is #1, Kendrick's Game 7 HR is #2, Kendrick's Grand Slam is #3, followed by like 5 or 6 Rendon moments (including that falling, over the shoulder catch on the popup that saved Game 2 of the NLDS).
Re Cole: I understand not using him in the 7th; it all happened so fast, and you want Harris in that scenario because he's a reliever used to big spots, and he's also been lights out (at least he had been, until Game 6). But can someone please explain to me WHY Hinch couldn't bring him in once the Nats took the lead? Maybe he only wanted him to go 1 inning (the 9th?), and maybe it's not that clear cut that 2-days-rest Cole is better than Osuna or Urquidy. But then why not say that? Instead Hinch was like, "we agreed he'd only come in once it was tied or we had the lead." WTF?? It's game 7 of the World Series! There's no tomorrow! You wouldn't be wasting him in a loss, you'd be giving your team the best chance of remaining in the game!
@coolsny, I don't know if it's ever "more likely than not" that any team will win the World Series in any given year, but I take it you mean it was more likely than not that over the course of several years, the team would eventually win one, given the payroll investment?
One of the amazing things about doing it this year is the fact that we basically all acknowledge we're at the end of "the window." The team is highly paid, but also literally the oldest in baseball. Among the incredible draft gifts we got to open the window, one is gone to Philly and the other is well into his 30s and has had some injury struggles, including Tommy John surgery. The management has done a good job of forcing the window to stay open as long as possible (8 years so far), but at some point, absent miracle players developing unexpectedly, or some really idiotic trades from the surprisingly gullible Tigers or Padres, it's going to close. And with Rendon in his contract year and Strasburg able to opt out, this team could be at least partially blown up next year. Even if they're not, they will be even older than they were this year, and regardless of conditioning, that comes with inevitable performance drops and injuries.
This was probably the last best chance for the foreseeable future, and they did it even after a lot of people were ready to blow it up and start the rebuild in May (myself included). It makes it so much easier now to look to the future and a potential rebuild knowing your plan worked last time, and you're not staring down the barrel of another several years before a title is likely to come to town.
Sorry, not 2015 Royals, 2014 Royals. That was the one where they beat the A's in the WC, and lost to MadBum in 7 games, with the tying run on 2nd in the 9th.
I still can't believe they won. I agree that they were counted out both in May and in the playoffs. I had to mute the tv broadcast several times during the world series because it was the Houston Astros show. In fact, I would argue that the Nats were counted out in game 7. Up until the 8th inning the broadcast was all about Houston and how great they were. It wasn't until there were 6 outs left and they had first a 2 run lead and then a 4 run lead in the 9th that they stared talking about the history of baseball in DC.
@Harper: many thanks for your excellent blog. It truly enhanced the amazing experience of winning a World Series. And thanks to the respectful and insightful fans who post on this blog. Well done.
One question that I just cannot get past: why wasn't Doo warming up with Hudson for the 9th inning? I was fine with bringing in Hudson. Have him pound the strike zone with fastballs. It would have scared the @%*& out of me if the Nats only had a one run lead, but I would have been equally scared if Doo came on in the 9th with only a one run lead. BUT, if Hudson started to falter (and he has faltered at times), shouldn't Doo be ready? Surely, they weren't saving Doo for extra innings or Game 8.
@Jay
If I had heard Buck say Grienke was pitching the game of his life one more time, I woulda effin lost it.
The sure fire cure for Joe Buck is the mute button + Charlie & Dave.
Hearing Charlie go nuts at the end made it that much sweeter. He was so excited he flubbed his big line slightly... he said "remember where you are, so you remember where you are..."
@Harper Oh I wasn’t upset at all. I just thought you weren’t so much saying that unobjectionable statement as trying to downplay it as a fun ride but nothing terribly out of ordinary. And honestly before I started reading some of the summaries of the various unprecedented achievements i basically agree with that sentiment. But of course you are right. You can’t ditinguish between degrees of implausibility. And nobody is angry today!
I am going to parade/rally. Who else is going?!??
Yes! The Athletic article basically broke down the title achievement into like 7 different categories of implausible aspects.
1. The basic fact of one of 3 biggest underdogs according to Vegas since like 1950.
2. The start (nobody won WS who was that bad through 50 games.
3. The comebacks in 5 elimination games (nobody had even done it in 4 previously).
4. Adding up the win probabilities at the lowpoints of all the playoff comebacks the Nats beat out mathematically, which was an all timer as far back as they can measure.
5. The winning every road game to win WS (never been done). Especially wild given Astros best home team in like decades by record.
6. The Max Willis reed ressurection.
7. The crazy time since dc had a title.
8. The quality of behemoths and giants they slayed. (No team had beat two teams that good, meaning over 105 wins....106 for dodgers and 107 for Astros).
9. Then various other things that are less quantifiable like losing Harper before season, Davey having heart attack and coming back, etc., the way they somehow won using basically 6 pitchers for 90% of innings to cover a nonexistent pen.
@g cracka Yes! You are right and I’m wrong. Was that with corbin? That’s prob why I didn’t remember.
@PotomacFan. Doolittle was warming up when Hudson started inning, just not WITH Hudson. The original plan was for him to come get Brantley but with cushion and no traffic and Hudson looking good they just let him finish.
First let me say, it’s hard not be romantic about baseball. Soulless automatons, don’t make that harder than it needs to be.
I straight bawled like a child when Kendrick’s homer clanged off the foul pole. It was perfect closure because since his grand slam against LA, I’ve been in a haze. There was so much heartache and doubt before that, and since then I’ve been pinching myself with each win since then leading up to Game 7, almost certain this was a dream. All the post game interviews with Grant Paulsen from 106.7 were great, but one spoke volumes of what they’ve done here. Adam Eaton expressed sadness that the ride was over, and that a lot of these guys likely won’t be back next season. It’s speaks to true friendship that these athletes formed along the way. Scherzer of course was tearing up with A-Rod and Papi on the postgame, but it’s so true. This wasn’t just “pretty cool,” Harper. Words are so difficult to put it into words. Every player has a story that you can get behind and root for. Collectively, get the tissue box.
Smoltz said that he might not see this type of run again for the rest of his life, and I believe him. Next year will not be like this. Even if they go back-to-back, it will never feel like it feels right now. 95 years. From the Senators “first in war/peace, and last in the American League,” to 30+ years without a team in DC. Our fan base has changed, and I think that is a good thing. But just like Boston in ‘04 and Chicago in ‘16, it won’t be the same.
This is the weirdest sensation because I’m over-the-moon happy for these Nationals. But I am so sad this ride is over, almost more sad than after the early playoff exits. No more baby shark, no more “viejos,” maybe no more Rendon heroics, maybe no more Strasburg dominance (just as he was blossoming into stratospheric heights), maybe no more Kendrick, Hudson... ugh. There will be other likeable Nats teams in the future, but I don’t know if any of them will touch the fan base the way this 2019 group did. “Heroes get remembered, but legends never die.”
One day, a very old Howie Kendrick will throw out the first pitch at Nats Park, and 50% of the people in the stadium won’t have any idea who he is, much less how it felt when that 2019 team refused to back down. I hope to be in the stadium that day, as part of the other 50%.
@Kenny B
Yes you're mostly correct, I just mean that if you take the teams that have never won a WS as of the start of the 2019 season (Rockies, Padres, Nationals, Rangers, Rays, Brewers), and you lined up their payroll average over the last 7 years, I think the team that would seem best set up to win (if payroll and winning can be correlated, which I believe it can) would be the Nationals.
Although damn I didn't know the Rockies spent that much!
Nats decline their half of Adams's mutual option, instead paying the $1M buyout. Not really surprising; while he still provided power that .276 OBP and 84 wRC+ wasn't going to cut it.
One of this offseason's interesting stories is going to be what the Nats do to fill their infield void. Given that Zim's buyout is a lock, and Adams, Kendrick, and Cabrera are all FAs, that leaves nobody for 1B-2B from the end-of-season roster. If Rendon is resigned than presumably Carter Kieboom is Plan A for 2B, but no matter what Rizzo has a lot of work ahead of him to rebuild the infield. (Man, two days since the big win and already I'm thinking Hot Stove. On the other hand, Strasburg's opt-out deadline is two hours before tomorrow's parade so might as well get started. Already looking forward to Harper's first posts about the roster!)
@Bx Yes, it was Corbin with the infamous "Dodgers won't go away" meltdown inning. But then he totally redeemed himself in NLDS Game 5, NLCS Game 4, and of course, World Series Game 7!!!
Also, thanks so much for posting the summary of the Athletic article, since I am unable to read it (don't have a subscription).
I'm planning on going to the parade too!
Good Fangraphs article on the quality of the 2019 Astros:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-astros-join-a-list-of-great-failures/
The Astros are 4th all-time in Total WAR, trailing only the '98 Braves, the '69 Os, and of course, the '27 Yankees. So, by WAR, the Astros were slightly better than the '01 Mariners.
By the way, the '19 Dodgers are 13th all-time! Given that 2019 is the only year where two teams appeared in the top 13 for total WAR, we can safely say that the Nats are the only team in baseball history to beat two of the top 13 teams by WAR of all time
@Ole PBN:
As long as those of us in the 50% remain, Howie will never buy another drink in this town. I'll buy the first round at that game if you get the second?
I was driving home from class when Howie hit his homer. I'm sure I swerved on the road as I pumped my fist and screamed 'HOWIE!' as loud as I could at least a dozen times. I'm sure the others on the road were wondering what the hell was going on, but I didn't care.
Not able to do the parade, but will watch on TV and be there in spirit.
Speaking of Howie, his 2-run blast is tied with Yogi Berra for the ninth most increase in Championship Win Probability Added:
http://thebaseballgauge.com/post.php?tab=plays
Howie's blast improved the Nats' chances of winning the world series by almost 35%!
Another thing: I'm happy that the Nats' "build a 90-win team every year" approach finally paid off. The reality in today's MLB is that you can build a juggernaut like the Astros, and still have only a 35% chance of winning the World Series:
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-09-30&dateDelta=
I don't have the statistical prowess to run the numbers, but I do like the 'try to be good every year and hope things fall your way' approach over the 'boom-bust/all-in' strategy. Can't say that it is ACTUALLY better, but its at least more enjoyable from a fan perspective, because you have more winning seasons overall.
Another question: does the Nats' WS win validate the Lerner's decision to essentially replace Dusty with Davey?
Or, would Dusty have also won it all, AND had the team in the playoffs in '18? I guess we'll never know. Maybe its the next Strasburg Shutdown unresolved conundrum
Good parade today! One question: on the bus with Davey and Rizzo, Davey is holding the World Series trophy. Rizzo was also holding a trophy....does anyone know what trophy that was?
Probably the NL Championship trophy.
Oh yikes, Stras opts out. I was at the parade 8 hours ago and gloom is already setting in. Why am I like this?
@Josh Definitely! Even though the offseason began earlier, and the Nats had made moves (like declining their half of Adams' mutual option), there's something about Stras opting out that says, 'Party's over. Its business time'. Couple that with the realization that the team won't be the same next year and that key players could be gone, and it can be a bummer.
I comfort myself with the fact that whatever happens in the offseason, at least the Nats finally won it all
Stras is 31 and a WS MVP. Nats are going to have to give him higher AAV and more years. Gonna need to be like 6/200... Stras and Zim are the pillars/tie to the start of this team in DC... Strasburg should get paid.
Someone's going to go Arenado level for Rendon... maybe it'll be the Nats... That was 8 years and 260... Tony's 2 years older than Nolan... maybe he only gets 6 or 7. Nats were willing to go big for Harper. Anthony should get paid.
BUT If the Lerners were okay with "fair" "at or just below market" deals and allowing players to go BEFORE we won it all, why would they start to extend better offers now?
HOLD ON TO YOUR BUTTS ITS GOING TO BE A CRAZY OFFSEASON!
Very glad to see the way the team put business aside for a day and hung out together to celebrate the WS victory. The fleeting nature of the business and team composition made it all the more pleasant to see everyone celebrating at the same parade.
Unfortunately, or fortunately, they are back to business today. Thanks to Curt Flood, we have free agency and players can take advantage of their own market value. Strass and Rendon get a chance to tell Rizzo "Sure, I'd love to play for the Nats again. But if you can't pay me what the market says I'm worth, I WILL take my services elsewhere."
So that's right, Saturday we hugged and danced, today we negotiate new deals. Because if you want to win, you have to sign contracts.
Boros was not at the parade on Saturday. He was busy planning negotiating positions for clients...
It's that time of year folks, time to hit refresh on mlbtraderumors.com roughly 10 times a day. Regardless of what happens, Nats will still be World Champs.
Stras can only end up in 1 of 2 places in my mind: back with the Nats, or back home in San Diego. Seeing him end up anywhere else would be very surprising.
Rendon, on the other hand, is likely to be gone. He's a great ballplayer, but he's also made it pretty clear that baseball is his job, not his passion. So he's going to go wherever gives him the highest AAV with a minimum of 4 years and a max of 6 or 7 given he's said he doesn't want to play forever. I hope the Nats do it, but back to Texas with the Rangers seems like a possibility (not sure about payroll for them), or the Brewers could use a strong 3B as well if Moose doesn't re-sign.
Slightly bummed that Robles didn't get a Gold Glove. Was Cain more deserving?
Looks like Robles had a big lead in Outs Above Average (23 to 14), and slightly more DRS (22 to 20), but less UZR (7 to 5.3) and DEF (9 to 7.4)
@GCX Robles led the majors in nearly every significant defensive category and not just for CFers, for everyone. GG's are BS, and have been for some time.
Gold gloves are not exactly BS, but it takes a herculean effort to unseat the incumbent. Or more likely, it takes an injury to the incumbent for the next guy up to win the Gold Glove.
Cain has been screwed out of a deserved GG a couple of times in the past, so ironic that he wins an undeserving one this year. I still find it hilarious that Soto was nominated for one given how often he gets ragged on for his defense (though by Outs Above Average he's actually a positive defender, so he's definitely improving into the "choose your desired metric to fit your narrative" category).
In other news, Milwaukee declined Eric Thames's option. If Rizzo wants to bring Zim back at a reduced salary, Thames would be a perfect platoon partner. Much like Lind and Adams, he can pound righties, can't hit lefties, and can fake bumbling around in the outfield a bit. As an added benefit, he's a solid OBP guy.
@Dezo - Also regarding Thames, good guy to have if the benches clear. That guy's arms are huge.
Also, I still like Kurt Suzuki....and Sean Doolittle.
Wow. Say it ain't so, Zuk.
and Mr National breaking my heart too
Don't go confusing baseball with real life. Heck, they could be wearing John Deere hats but not know diddly-squat about tractors.
Wow. All the Nats players aren’t democrats? I’m shocked. I suppose that’s the difference between the right and left. The left is surprised when one disagrees with them; while I’m not surprised that there were some Nats players (like Doo) with a different opinion than mine. To each his own, more power to you Doolittle.
Not really great showing by either other Anonymous - that's kind of just being as obnoxious as those who just project their beliefs on their favorite players. People make assumptions on both sides and see what they want to see, not really a left or right thing.
Zimm's always been a quiet right guy, I'd guess most MLB players are or are just agnostic. I am very much not a Trump fan, but as Doo said I understand them going to the White House. I am disappointed that Zuke's is making headlines on partisan news sites on both sides.
Anyways, hope they're still celebrating somewhere. I know I still am.
Honestly as long as they come out swinging hot bats next April I don't care what they do. These guys aren't your friends, and considering where baseball players come from these days (white, upper-middle class backgrounds), it's no surprise at all that many of them are going to be fans of the Big Wet Guy. Zim's little speech didn't bother me really; someone has to give him the jersey and while he could have done that without parroting Trump's talking points, it was pretty bland.
Zuk's thing, though, was a clown show imo. It's impossible to accept an invitation to the White House and not have it be a political event, but you also don't have to go out of your way to make it *overtly* political. I get it—he's a Trump guy and he just won a world series and now he's at the White House, it's as much or more his moment to enjoy as it is the fans'. But slapping that stupid hat on for no good reason was a deliberate act. I'm not quite so politics-brained that I'll ever feel compelled to boo him, but some on, read the room.
This is why my love of sport is waning. Sports is supposed to be the antithesis of politics. But here we are hating and bloviating because of someone's political outlook. Of course, if his political views are different from yours...he's a clown show, he certainly can't be as enlightened as you. The entire event is a clown show and should never have become a part of winning championships in the first place. We are too much of a tribal society today for reason and accommodation to take place.
Should Rizzo resign Strasburg or sign Gerritt Cole? (I'm assuming signing both won't happen, but y'know the Nats won the World Series this year, so maybe anything can happen)
@Anon 7:14 I feel you. Sports used to be something that united people instead of dividing them. I hate tribalism, it's like we've regressed as a society and are unable to discuss ideas on their merits, which means the ideas get reduced to soundbytes and in general just get dumber and dumber. Guess what folks, you can disagree with people without vilifying them. We don't need to "cancel" people because they have different views. I hope the Nats re-sign Rendon AND Strasburg, you might disagree, doesn't make you a bad person. Same is true of politics.
@SuburbanSteve I think Nats would have to pay a premium for Cole since they're on the East Coast, but Cole is the better pitcher and more importantly is younger. Not sure it's a binary choice quite like that though because Strasburg will be a lot cheaper with maybe fewer years, for that reason I'd say they re-sign Stras.
@JWL, I’m down with the whole idea of “you can disagree with people without vilifying them,” but the thing is that Trump basically only does the opposite of that. He is a professional vilifier. So someone expressing support for him is expressing their support for vilifying people. It’s not just a difference of opinion; it’s that Trump will literally call people who disagree with him “human scum” from the biggest platform in the history of the world.
That’s why seeing player go all in for him stings, because these are people you like to think of as not being assholes. Then they put on the “I am an asshole” hat, and well, you have to cope with the reality the hat is asserting. Suzuki is totally cool with and supportive of vilifying people and general assholery.
I try to take the position of politics as a positive in my team’s athletes, so I can like Doolittle more for his politics, but treat Zim as basically just a baseball guy who is doing the normal expected thing. But the Suzuki image is going to be tough to get out of my head.
Fellas, I agree its difficult to not make the White House visit a political event. It's one of those things that we do, because, well... we've done them in the past. Its a stupid reason for a silly event. But what's not hard is to see the bias in everyone's comments. "The Big Wet Guy," "slapping that stupid hat on," and pretty much everything Kenny B wrote seems ironic to me. My favorite exorcise is "what if the shoe was on the other foot, how would you feel?"
Kenny, I'm a conservative. I'm not a Trump fan, I think his character is terrible, but his policies are not (again, my opinion). I don't vilify Doolittle for his decision. I don't applaud Suzuki's, although it did make me smile. The difference is that it won't be difficult to get either out of my head. Same if Doolittle did the waltz with Obama. Politics are not my life, are they yours? Can't think of any other reason as to why Suzuki's stunt would be so disturbing to someone. It's.... a hat.
I guess what I'm trying to say is that is the difference between a rational person and an irrational person. Trump is a dick, but I support his policy. I thought Obama was a gentlemen, disagreed his policy. Might be different for you, but I don't vote for people based on whether or not they would be a good friend, I'll never meet the man/woman.
Lighten up, Francis.
@Kenny B - Look I'm a minarchist, which is a form of libertarian, so I don't have a dog in the fight as I don't really care for either the Democrats or Republicans. But here's the thing: The exact same thing you're saying about Trump could be said about Obama. Maybe he wasn't as boorish in his verbiage, but he vilified the milquetoast Mitt Romney and tried to paint him to be a racist. That's politics, and politicians are always trying to paint the other side as Hitler in the hopes that the masses will believe them. It's not new either, if you read political ads from the early 19th century, they're brutal. (I mean, Aaron Burr shot and killed Hamilton.) Perhaps it's because when I was younger and in the Marine Corps, I drove them around and provided security for politicians (including 2 Presidents) while abroad. I can tell you that regardless of party, 90% of them are absolute human scum. Most are narcissists and megalomaniacs at best, and something else at worst. They are nearly all controlled by special interests, so when you vote you hope that the special interest you support continues to control them.
A lot of people who support Trump support his policies, and not his behavior. Disagree with him? Great, perhaps work to change minds, but you're not going to change minds by calling everyone who supports him an asshole or branding people racist just because they support different policies. People are just going to become further entrenched in their positions. Plus, when real racists like Richard Spencer come along, the word begins to lose its meaning because everyone has already been branded a racist asshole. Personally, I abhor Trump's behavior, and would never wear one of those dumb hats, but I love the fact that he's slashed regulations within the government because I believe in Minarchy so the less government, the better.
Finally, with regard to Suzuki and Doolittle, perhaps put the shoe on the other foot. Do you think conservative Nats fans should vilify and stop rooting for Doolittle? For most Americans, roughly half the people in this country disagree with your politics in large part and everyone disagrees with you on something. If everyone agreed with everyone we'd be in danger of group think.
^^the difference between rational and irrational thought. Thanks @JW
@Harper: begging you to put up a new post, maybe on what happens with Strasburg and Rendon, or Nats FA targets, or anything really to steer the blog away from politics. Thanks to all for a civilized debate about politics, but this blog is so much fun because it is about baseball, and only baseball -- and therefore, a distraction from politics.
Can we get back to baseball? I prefer a world where only strikeouts are fascist.
I thought the "FOUR MORE YEARS" chant was perfect. That's all I'm going to say about it.
Roll the Brinks trucks up to Rendon's and Stras's houses and git 'er done.
I fully support four more years of controversy over whether Nationals players should or shouldn't visit or not visit, show support for or not show support for whomever is living in the White House.
Also, seriously, can Rizzo and Boras stop with whatever nonsense they're up to and just finish Stras's extension so we can get down to the serious business of trying to resign Rendon, finding 1B options, and filling out the bullpen? Every day that goes by is one more day when the whole thing could blow up because two guys got too invested in their dick-measuring contest and it ends with Strasburg being a Padre or something.
(Speaking of Stras-Padre rumors, every year there's always some rumor about some player going to end up signing with the team they rooted for as a kid or the one they lived nearby when growing up or whatever, and the only time I can recall anything even vaguely similar to that working is Morton signing with Tampa last year. Is that "sentimental hometown connection" EVER something that's happened IRL?)
@JWLumley
Didn't read the earlier posts than the one at 9:22am, don't think i have to -
that is all well and good, and I hope that after Trump we can all get back to arguing small vs big gov't, as I now consider those the good old days, HOWEVER:
to paint the Trump presidency as comparable to any other modern presidency is a non starter. We have never had a president trample upon norms, let alone the constitution, the way Trump has, and with such frequency and nonchalance. I'm sorry, but this is an inarguable point, as we have evidence of it, daily. You can say Obama did bad things, you can say Bush did bad things, but NO PRESIDENT EVER has done bad things at the rate of Trump. Trump has committed egregious public acts at a rate so high that it goes beyond human capacity to process, which is why even sensible people such as you and I continue to sometimes promote this false equivalency.
There are very real and respectable arguments to be made left v right, conservative v democrat, and my head is not exploding over Suzuki's act at the White House. I don't begrudge the average Trump voter because I believe they are fed a constant stream of lies that target them on an emotion level. I do begrudge R politicians who DO know better and willfully exploit voters' travails for personal gain.
When people bring up this "both-side-ism," I like to think of it as a rainstorm (D) vs a hurricane (R) - yes, you will get wet in both but only one of them will threaten the structural integrity of your house, and potentially kill you.
Well coolsny, I see it the other way around, where (D) is the hurricane, and (R) is the rainstorm. If you call his tweets the hurricane, I can't help you there - maybe follow someone else and don't let 280 character statements ruin your day? But I think the intolerable left contributes its fair share of the uncivil discourse in this country (antifa, etc.). I'd call that a hurricane, and tweets from a dude I don't follow on twitter, a rainstorm.
I think the "both-side-ism" only works if both sides are willing to look in the mirror. I am. Are you? Doesn't sound like it. Seems like its only my fault... and people like me (an "R"). That sir, seems like a non-starter.
Good gravy, don't make me hate the timeline where the Nats win the World Series!
But @coolsny now you're making me talk about how gawd-awful the jackass Woodrow Wilson was, a century ago. Trump being an a-hole has LOTS AND LOTS of historical precedent. What is unprecedented is the social media megaphone used to spread it around the globe in moments.
For our penance, let us kick off the free agency signing period by watching Ken Burns' Baseball, where we can see George Will, Mike Barnicle, and Keith Olbermann love this game together.
This isn't the right comparison though. Politicians calling each other scum is expected. But Trump calls entire groups of people scum based on what they look like, where they came from, or other factors beyond their control. It's not at all the same. The point many of us are making is you can't just take the policies and ignore the rest. Trump has gone so far below the standards of decency that to support his brand is to support those standards. There is no comparison in recent American history.
"The point many of us are making is you can't just take the policies and ignore the rest."
Lou, with all due respect, yes. Yes you most certainly can. People have been doing it for years. Making excuses for their side's politician, or just voting for the policy. I will never meet Trump or Obama, or any president in my lifetime, he has no idea who I am. He/she has no bearing on my individual happiness. The impact that he has on my daily life is practically zero... unless I choose to make it center of my universe. Please don't do that, for your health. Unhappiness over this kind of stuff is a state of mind.
MOAR BASBALL LESS POLITICZ!!111!!11!
"Mr. Ryan, I'm a politician. That means I'm either kissing babies or figuring out how to steal their candy." --Hunt for Red October
Unfortunately, I don't see the Nats keeping both Stras and Rendon. I figure for intangible reasons (just moved, likes routine) we keep Stras. I'm betting on keeping Kendrick, not Parra, not Cabrera, not Hudson, not Gomes. Maybe we can trade Taylor for something at this point since I think Stevenson can fill that role. Kieboom comes up to play 2b and we find another outfielder somewhere.
Sign Zim and Thames (but I expect he wants to play full time) to cover 1st. Now we just need a 2nd catcher and to fill that huge black hole at 3rd.
You can hope all you want, but Rizzo will not spend big money on the bullpen and I don't blame him. Roll the dice, see who's hot in July and pick them up. Seems that's turning into a pattern.
Could Kieboom play 3B if their is a more enticing 2B option via trade or FA? Whether its 3B or 2B, I think we need another big bat to hit in front of or behind Soto. The 1-2 punch we had in 2019 with him and Rendon was deadly. I sure hope they keep Howie. Hudson is worth keeping as well, even if we caught lightning in a bottle. Stras simply has to resign or it makes the Rendon loss all the more painful.
You bring back Cabrera and Kendricks as big hairy bats off the bench. You use Howie (70 starts or so) similar to last year. Bring back Zimmerman at a fraction of his salary and between the 3 you have a solid first base. You see what you have with Kieboom starting at 2nd to start the year.
Suggestions:
* Resign Stras; Max/Stras/Corbin/Sanchez/Voth with Ross as SP6 sets the rotation.
* Try to resign Rendon. If you can't, try to sign Donaldson.
* Sign Thames and Zim to platoon at 1B.
* Resign Cabrera as the primary backup for Kieboom at 2B; if Kieboom fails outright Cabrera can step in.
* Try to trade Michael Taylor to a rebuilding team like the Giants who don't have CF set and would be willing to try him full-time. A functional-but-not-special bullpen arm might be a good exchange.
* Seriously evaluate the in-house catching situation and if necessary sign a veteran with respectably predictable output. Since Suzuki basically lacks platoon splits a platoon guy like Avila would be all right, or they could go with a defense-first option like Maldonado to pair with Suzuki's bat, or bring Gomes back at a lower cost than his option. (Or if 3B doesn't get plugged with a star, go hog wild and sign Grandal, who's good at everything.)
* Improve the bullpen depth. If Rizzo isn't willing to go big for someone like Will Smith (and honestly, he probably shouldn't, given the QO), at least improve the floor so that the seventh guy is no worse than Suero and Rainey.
* Utter outside-the-box idea: Trade Eaton, one of Voth/Ross/Fedde, and prospects to the Red Sox for Mookie Betts, especially if Rendon doesn't return.
@DezoPenguin - I like it. If we lose Rendon, thoughts on Grandal to go with whatever we get for 3rd base?
Catcher has been a hole for us for so long. This year we're seeing an average catcher as a huge upgrade, which is how bad it's been.
@Dezo,
PLEASE NOT DONALDSON. To go from one of the most likable 3rd basemen in the league to one of the least likable would hurt so badly.
I'm not optimistic about the team's chances next year (or the next few years), so I'm all for trying Kieboom at 3rd if you can't get Rendon done. Save some salary so that next year (or the year after), you can make a run at a player like Betts
If not Donaldson, how about Moose?
I'm hoping for both Strasburg and Rendon. The most encouraging thing about the White House visit was the fact that Strasburg was there. Because that meant he is a free agent but still hanging out with his teammates. He even hugged Davey Martinez when he was done speaking. Also, Boswell wrote something in his chat. He said that Rendon told the fans during the parade, "Your enthusiasm is noted. Don't worry." Hopefully, that means he is coming back. Finally, I think Suzuki was just being goofy, trying to play for a laugh. I love Suzuki. He's always been viewed as a great guy. Read the article by Rosenthal in the Athletic from the post season. Great article. Great guy.
@pessimistic...
How can you say you’re not optimistic about their chances? They literally JUST WON the World Series. And they took out the best teams in baseball to do it. Now I am not saying that I think they should be favored to win it all again. But a post season run? Absolutely. Yes, they have some free agents to deal with. But they’ll do that. I fully expect SS back and to think Rendon is 50/50. Even with the commitments they would need to make to them they should still have plenty of money to put into bullpen/firstbase/catcher. Pretty sure if rendon is resigned then Kieboom becomes opening day 2B without a question. They don’t need a lot honestly. To say you don’t like their chances next year is giving up WAY too soon isn’t it?
It's cute how people here think the white house visit will just fade away. No, y'all, winning the world series was game 4 of the 2012 NLDS and the white house visit was game 5. The best moment followed immediately by the worst.
This isn't ever going away any more than people have forgotten who Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso are.
Mr. Nationalist and Traitor Kurt will be booed loudly if Nats fans even show up next year. This was easily the very worst day for the Nationals in their history and I say that as someone who has been a fan since 2004 and attended games every single year and almost every home playoff game in Nats history.
It was a nice fifteen years and I wish Doolittle, Rendon, Taylor, Ross, Robles, Suero, and Guerra all the best and commend them for taking a stand while they were betrayed by their fascist teammates filming a campaign ad for the führer.
Want to take back my nickname for Suzuki as I just realized it was a poor choice of words given how Japanese Americans have been slandered in this country before. Apologies for that.
Putting on a MAGA hat in that setting is an act of violence against women and minorities, though, and I'll have to think of a better and more thoughtful way to deride such an act.
Cass is toats right. Doing what every baseball team for the past century has done and then not being rude to their host is the exact same thing as exterminating millions of Jews.
We need some Kenny Chesney right about now:
Met a man wearin' a t-shirt, says "Virginia is for lovers"
Had a Bible in his left hand and a bottle in the other
He said "all you're really given is the sunshine and your name"
We both started laughin' when the sky started to rain
Get along, on down the road
We've got a long long way to go
Scared to live, scared to die
We ain't perfect but we try
Get along while we can
Always give love the upper hand
Paint a wall, learn to dance
Call your mom, buy a boat
Drink a beer, sing a song
Make a friend, can't we all get along
On Rendon, here's a snippet from WaPo's Neil Greenberg on Rendon and his potential contract:
"His performance in the seventh inning or later in the Nationals’ five elimination games was sensational: walk, double, home run, double, home run, double and home run, the last contribution a solo shot off Zack Greinke in the seventh inning of Game 7, the Nationals’ first sign of life in that contest."
Wow!
Cass, you're off your rocker man. Take it easy. I really don't know why a hat hurts so bad. Mr. Nationalist? You're acting like Zimm and Suzuki actually assaulted someone and got away with it.
As a diehard baseball fan who has never won a world series in my lifetime, a few PC words from Zimm and a red hat which many people don't take the time to understand why their political counterpart views as meaning totally different things is never going to diminish my joy of this WS. Commenting in an online forum isn't going to actually do anything about that issue. Cass and triggered anonymous, go grab a beer, talk about how you love your families and want the best for your kids, then with a little mutual understanding (and love for baseball) you can dive into the above, but nothing is going to change here.
It is however, a fantastic forum to remind everyone that HOLY SHI***** WE WON THE WORLD SERIES. AND A BUNCH OF GROWN MAN DANCED AROUND LIKE FOOLS AND HUGGED AND JUST HAD FUN AND ENJOYED LIFE TOGETHER.
Let's get the market rolling with an early deal for Stras. Rendon is going to be a long wait, which is unfortunate given the alternatives will be gone by the time he signs, but at least the Stras deal will set the market rolling. If we don't get Rendon, I want Grandal and another high contact rate guy we can hide in the corner. The derth of talent on the backside of our hitting is a clear hole.
At the risk of belaboring the political side of this discussion, my point upthread was simply that Donald Trump is a mean person. How mean you think he is or whether you think his meanness is an issue probably relates to whether you are a part of one of the groups he is consistently mean to, but his meanness is not really in question. This is why interactions of people with him are different from basically every other political persona. Trump is a hard person not to have a reaction to, and when you engage with him, you should expect that effect to rub off.
That said, I don't vote for Suzuki (except potentially for the All Star Game), he doesn't make policy, and as far as I can tell he is not a mean person, so I'll move on. It was eyeroll-inducing, and I don't have to like it. But he was a big part of the Nationals' World Series win, and so long as he is good at playing baseball, I'll cheer for him to play baseball for my team. Same with everyone else. It's sort of like that friend you hang out with in real life and you get along great, but they post the worst stuff on social media that seems so disconnected from the person you feel like you know pretty well. You're still friends in real life, and it can be tough to ignore the bad social media stuff, but you I can do it.
If any of the 2019 Nationals start to make themselves overtly political in ways I disagree with (e.g. Curt Schilling), I reserve the right to dislike them for baseball-independent reasons.
IN the end, everyone on this thread should agree that it was awesome when Suzuki hit a homer to complete a 7-run 9th-inning comeback against the Mets.
Moving along, I estimate Strasburg will come back, because I think he doesn't love the drama that comes with free agency, and the team will offer him a good deal because the idea of losing Harper and Strasburg in consecutive years is the kind of "slam the window shut" move that I just don't think Rizzo is ready to make. Plus Rizzo and the Lerners seem more inclined to pay for pitching. I think Rendon's as good as gone, because he'll get gobbled up for a ton of money by another team looking to establish itself. Call it a "Werth" contract. Those are just my guesses, and my guesses are usually wrong. It will be a very interesting offseason and I am eager to hear from our host about his thoughts on it.
I think it's much more important that the Nats re-sign Rendon than Strasburg. There are a ton of good starting pitchers available on the open market, but if the Nats don't sign Rendon and can't get Donaldson it gets ugly quick. How ugly you ask? How'd you like to see 150 starts given to Cabrera and Jake Knoll at 3B? Or even worse Jake Knoll and Wilmer Difo? Of course, they could pick up someone to play 2B and try Kieboom at 3B, but that's getting kind of iffy.
As for starting pitching, if they miss on Strasburg, they could take a run at Cole or Wheeler or they could try to get two very good pitchers to fill the #4 and #5 slot. The latter is probably not the best strategy for a deep postseason run, but it could help the team get there.
Finally, I'll continue rooting for Suzuki and Doolittle, along with conversing with both Trump supporters and detractors alike.
Can we still boo Strickland though? Maybe?
@JWLumley - there is no way we get Cole, period. Stras would be the highest end we'd go for, and I assume we will since it's really just a $5M bump per year and we'll add 2 years. I agree Rendon is more important, I also think he's going to be harder to sign for the reasons you noted above (plus, the dude loves Texas). I'm hopeful it's a both thing.
If we stick with Zukes that's fine, but he's a slightly below average catcher. If we can upgrade anywhere at an affordable rate, that's where I'd want to go. Batters 6-9 is just such a weakness for us. Kieboom could help there, and a catcher upgrade (and Victor working on curveball recognition pleaseeeeee) could go a long way. If we have to downgrade at 3B, and upgrade at catcher and 1B is critical.
Kenny B...please point me to a redeeming politician on the horizon today. They're all mean, disingenuous liars and you're picking on Trump!? Your political views are your political views but your standard of behavior acceptance shifts depending on what tribe you belong to, so forgive me if I find your tirade tireless and meaningless.
Catching is not the problem with the Nationals. Their catchers combined for 29 hr and 106 rbi's and despite not having great numbers against base stealers nobody steals anymore and it never presented a problem. Plus they caught one of the best pitching staffs in the entire major leagues. If every position was as productive as the catcher position we'll win in a walk next year.
@Anonymous - fine, you pulled me in. Literally, everyone is less mean. Rubio, Cruz, Haley, Jeb, Kasich, the entire democratic primary field and whatever planet Marianne Williams is from. The whole disingenuous liars thing (which is different than mean btw) is cancel culture refusing to admit people can truly believe in something, be well intended, and still have flaws and makes mistakes. Almost no one goes to DC with the intent of being disingenuous liars.
Get your last word in, then can we go back to baseball please?
@Anon - Kurt is just kind of fine, I agree, but I think we can do better.
At 36, he's going to fall off, that position wears you done fast. There's a reason he's a 0.4 WAR guy. Grandal isn't Realmuto, but that's a legit player still in his prime to bring in if we can. I don't see a ton of other needle movers upward (we could do 1B, but have to figure out what's happening around the horn first).
6 of the last 8 comments from Anonymous posters. Is it all one person talking to himself? Forgive us all its a little tough to follow. Add in that its politically-focused and its an aggressive scroll to the bottom.
I actually think this comment thread has turned into a sort of social experiment that the author is conducting to see how long we go before we tucker out and he has to write another post to get us talking again.
But like, has anyone checked to see if Harper (the blog author, not the Phillie) is okay? I think he promised us a new post by today. It was supposed to be a game recap of game 7, which is a moment in time I think we would all benefit from returning to.
Anon at 2:08...you're a true believer if that's how you feel so further conversation is pointless. Truth is an orphan anyway. Don't know about other anon's but I started this as a quick intro to just talk baseball and let myself get pulled into this. Sorry I'll stick to BB.
@Kenny Harper's twitter account seems to be working just fine. So I think he's okay, but I could see some real legs to the social experiment theory. I wonder what the record is for most comments on a particular post?
Going to assume the the Anon at 2:08 referring to Zuke / Grandall is me as that doesn't show up as time someone posted for me.
Let's start with: LF, CF, and SS are locked in. You could move Eaton, but I like his high contact rate and think he'll do even better with a healthy year under him, so no reason to mess with that. Let's assume also Kieboom is heading to 2nd. We need to resign Rendon, or that's a black hole. 1B I would love to platoon Howie and Zimm, but we can 100% upgrade if you think there's a good market fit? Catcher is the only spot I really think we were soso, and getting a scarier bat to put at the bottom of the order (or at 6th) would be huge for depth. Kurt did fantastic, and a 102 OPS is nothing to sneeze at, but in the juiced ball era, 29 HRs is good, but not unstoppable. I'd love a defensive upgrade on SBs to fight of the Braves, and a slight improvement in bat (2 Wins if you go by WAR between the two of them).
Also, Truth is an orphan doesn't actually mean anything....
Losing Rendon (which, unfortunately, appears likely) is a HUGE black hole. He is the best hitter on the team, and makes the whole line-up work. And he is a terrific third baseman. I just don't see how you replace that.
Grandal is not going to happen. He's going to get a large and lengthy contract, and the Lerner's (and even Rizzo) won't want to spend that kind of money and get locked in to a long-term contract with a catcher. Catcher's get injured. A lot.
I remember last year many posting that we can't lose Harper, his contributions were too critical to team success to lose. Well we lost him and won a World Series by picking up Corbin. I love Rendon, much better than I ever liked Harper and he was nails this year. But $35 to $40 million per? What other assets can the team purchase which that kind of money. Donaldson plus another starter? Moustakas? But I keep going back to Rendon and Soto back to back. That is a 3 - 4 for the ages. But somewhere around 70 million a season to retain Strasburg and Rendon? Wow. That can't be a sound strategy for building a sustainable team.
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