I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around what might be bothersome going into this game. Of course there is the ever present sword of Damocles that hangs over the team, the chance the Nats have to use their pen beyond Doolittle and Hudson. And of course there's the chance that Buehler is ON tonight and the Nats can't score at all. Those games happen. But beyond that?
I guess what I'm most worried about is Doolittle and Hudson haven't been
great. But they've been good enough and if all goes well they hopefully
won't be tasked with holding a slim 1-2 run lead. If so, I'd feel tense
but I'd also know they could well do it.
The line-up hasn't been great but MAT had two hits (well sort of) and Zimm came up with the big bomb and honestly that's all the Nats need. They need 6 through 8 not to go 0-12 or 1-14. That should be doable, or if not the top of the line-up should be able to plate 3-4 runs themselves.
Strasburg is up near his career tops in IP but with 85 pitches last game and full rest I'm not too worried about it. Maybe he can't give the Nats 7 but 5-6 great innings should be possible.
Davey has been real iffy when faced with tough choices, but the Nats have a fair amount of decent PH choices and if all goes well - like Games 2 & 4 - he won't be asked to make any tough choices. Even if I question him on the spot he's at least proven he's not going to overthink and do something out of left field.
So here they are again. With a real chance to win and move on, but a real chance to lose once more. Each NLDS G5 loss has been unique. 2012 was a cursed game - a huge lead (6-0!) chipped away at until finally a series of questionable decisions (using Edwin Jackson in the 7th, not using Storen in G2) and close calls going the other way ultimately led to a 9th inning breakdown. 2016 was the solid game between two powers. There were tough calls, some right some wrong, made by both teams, most notably the infamous Werth send. But the game was 1-0 into the 7th. The Dodgers punched in the top of the inning - scoring 4 as nearly every pitcher Dusty tried failed to do their job. The Nats countered in the bottom with a homer by Chris Heisey of all people to bring it back to a 1-run game. After that Perez and Melancon, Jansen and Kershaw would win every battle they needed to and that's the way the game ended. 2017 was madness, nearly the exact opposite of 2016 with both teams looking like they were trying to lose the game.
Obviously a win would be the most different outcome, but if you are a pessimist here's how can the Nats lose differently in G5 tonight?
They can be blown out. The Nats have lost G5 by 2, 1, and 1 runs respectively. In 2012 they had leads of 6-0 (end 3), 7-5 (e8); in 2016 1-0 (e6); in 2017 4-1 (e2). They have never finished an inning down by more than 3. If the Dodgers crush Strasburg and put the Nats in a big hole, like 5+ runs, that'll be new.
They can lose in a walk-off. There's good reason that hasn't happened yet. The Nats have hosted all three game 5s they've played. So this is the first time it's even possible to lose a G5 in a walkoff. The 2014 SF series did end on the West Coast. But while it was also a close game (3-2 loss) it did not end in a walk-off either, the Giants holding onto a 1-run lead gathered in the bottom of the 7th.
They can be shut out. The Nats have scored at least 2 runs in every NLDS loss and at least 3 runs in the G5s. Hell in 2012 and 2017 the G5 loss was their highest run output for the series. They have been shut out in general though (by Carpenter+ in G3 in 2012 and by Hendricks+ in G1 in 2017)
They can never have the lead. You may have noticed in the "blown out" one that the Nats have lead every G5 they played in. In 2012 they led going into the 9th, in 2016 going into the 7th, in 2017 going into the 5th. If you believe in patterns the Nats will lead going into the 3rd - then lose a close game. For something different though they can simply fall behind and never catch up
If you are looking for a nightmare scenario the Nats can't really do ALL of these at the same time. Mainly because losing in a walk-off pretty much requires they aren't being blown out.
What do I see? I don't see any reason it shouldn't follow the usual pattern of a close game. It doesn't feel like 2017 which was the proper ending to a series that itself was kind of crazy (Mold Strsaburg!) So I expect a fairly well played game as well. Who wins? Like I know. All I do know if the Nats manage to do it this time they'll be plenty of "it had to be this way" stories. 15-4 blowout? Had to happen like that. 3-2 squeaker? Had to happen like that. Strasburg 9 inning shutout? Had to happen like that. 12-10 madhouse bullpen special? Had to happen like that. I'm girding myself for the bad takes already. That's what happens when you don't cover the team you root for. You worry about the takes more than the game.
Anyway see you at 8:30! Stay sane until then.
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All I can say is that I hope this game is simple and straightforward from a managing perspective. Strasburg for 7, please and thank you, and then Doolittle and Hudson so that we don't have to be cute and try to figure out how to navigate the 7th inning.
We need minimum of 7 from Stras or we are toast. If I am DM, even with 2-3 run lead, I would let him pitch a complete game. This team has done fairly well on road, so I am optimistic. Plus the 19-13 stat about road teams winning game 5 in DS.
Firing Dusty was bad karma. Harper was bad karma ("Where's my ring?"). Camels in spring training are bad karma.
These are the "good karma" Nats. Breathe deep. Make contact.
Natty Dread - Cabbage Smash Nats good karma?
Don't care how they do it, just that they do it.
After that, it's how Stras does. A good start would be wonderful. Blowing it would hurt like hell. Storen blowing it (twice) was about as painful as imaginable cause I was a big fan, but Stras is my favorite of player of all time, so yeah. But it's baseball so you never know.
After that, Doolittle blowing it would hurt the most cause he's so good off the field.
But the Dodgers are incredibly good team as even Fangraphs has them as 57% favorites and the Fangraphs machine loves the Nats. So the Dodgers will probably win but anything can happen in one game. Should be a good one with the high quality of players on the field.
I figure that DM has the best baseball minds available to him (hint: they don't read this blog) to come up with the best lineup for tonight. And that's based on the last four games, as well as all the Dodger history he can dredge up.
He'll then make the decision and he'll accept the blame if the Nats lose, or he'll give kudos galore to everybody that contributed if they win. That's kinda what the manager's job is.
It's then the players' jobs to do what they're paid to do, and that they've been doing most of their phreakin' lives.
So, here's hoping that DM makes decisions that work out for the Nats, the players do what they're supposed to, and that that all leads to a rousing Nats victory.
Then we can concentrate on beating StLanta.
The Cardinals game was a slow motion trainwreck. You knew what was happening before it happened, and even the insurance run in the 8th didnt make me feel much better. The main difference with this game is the depth with which the Nats are dogs. It's not really up for debate, LA was the vastly better team all year and coming off 2 WS appearances. I like Stras for this moment, as well. The SoCal born, prickly, flat affect non limelight guy seems like the proper villain to pit against Hollywood for this fight. If the Nats dont win, I doubt the writers will acknowledge how much of a dog we are. The choking dogs copy will flow too easily. But make no mistake, we are trying to steal this thing. And we have the right guy on the mound to do it (and I love Max)....
"....Not using Storen in G2." ?
I'm thinking you meant to write, "....using Storen in G3." 2012 G2 was a blowout.
The pessimist in me appreciates the list of new ways to fail, so thank you for that, Harper. That said, this team doesn't feel like the others. I'd never suggest that the Nats lost those earlier series because of Bryce, but there was always something in his personality that seemed to characterize the team in general in the playoffs--a sense of pressing, over-eagerness, trying to hit 5-run homers with nobody on. They seemed to feel the pressure. I don't get that vibe from these guys. Strasburg is better than he's ever been. Max was Max when it mattered. Beating LA in LA would be so sweet. I think they'll do it.
Also, The "had to happen" takes work the other way too. 6th/7th inning Nats implosion? Had to happen. 8th or 9th inning blown save? Had to happen.
In reality, the only thing that has to happen is what is ordained.
Super nervous (duh, duh, duh-duh-duh!)
Super nervous (duh, duh, duh-duh-duh!)
What an optimistic bunch you all are. Yes, the Nats are the underdogs. Yes the Dodgers SHOULD win this game, but I still fully expect the Nats to lose in some new and painful way that's far more creative than anything Harper came up with. Perhaps, Strasburg will get thrown out in the first inning arguing balls and strikes, but somehow the beleaguered Nats bullpen will cobble together 8 innings of no run ball only do lose it when Anthony Rendon boots a slow roller ala Bill Buckner. That's the thing about painful losses, they're hard to see coming. As a seasoned Nats fan, I now know to prepare for myself for these things. I mean I hope I'm wrong, but I fully expect to swear off watching baseball forever sometime in the next 12 hours.
The Nats have scored at least 2 runs in every NLDS loss and at least 3 runs in the G5s.
??? This is, uh, not true. In every series except 2016 they've lost a game when scoring 0 or 1 run.
@anon, I think Harper meant win-or-go-home losses. Too lazy to check the record though.
I'm super nervous about this game because, despite my best efforts to be like JWL, I've gotten my hopes up for this team. They do feel different than teams past. They have a looseness to them, that playful energy that you expect to see on the sandlot, not in a big league stadium. And for whatever stupid reason, that makes me feel like this has to be the year.
But I know it won't be the year. I predict the Nats will leave 58439 runners on base (give or take) and lose by 1 run, with a wall scraper flyball out by Ryan Zimmerman in the 9th being the difference.
Hate to say it, but they need to score early. The Dodgers are most likely to go Buehler to Kershaw to Jansen. So there won't be any breaks or "bullpen" to get into tonight. If they can keep it close, then Jansen is beatable. Call me crazy but I won't be surprised if Scherzer pitches an inning tonight. Kershaw did it years ago in game 5 on zero days rest. I told my dad prior to game 4 that the Nats needed a hero (not the song). They need someone to step up. In game 4, Scherzer, Turner, Rendon, and Zim (and maybe Taylor) stepped up. They need a couple people to do it again tonight. My guess is that the Dodgers game plan will be to drive up Stasburg's pitch count and get into whatever the Nats use for a bullpen. Strasburg can be beat. My guess of the most likely way would be that the Dodgers go all 2014 Giants and single him to death. Also, don't forget this is the second time in this series that Dodgers will have seen Strasburg, that could make a difference. Hopefully, he does great and they win. The one downside to pitching Scherzer in game 4 is that he would have been on 2 days rest after game 3 and likely available for an inning tonight. Either way, I'm so proud of how they have bounced back this year. It has been really cool to watch. We'll see what happens.
@Jay -- This will be the second time the Nats have seen Buehler in this series, so hopefully that difference balances out. I'd be really, really surprised to see Scherzer pitch given his comments after the last game, but who knows -- maybe if we have a 16 inning game or something? I'd guess that Sanchez, Corbin, Voth, Doolittle and Hudson are all ahead of him on the depth chart for this game.
@cass said: "Blowing it would hurt like hell. Storen blowing it (twice) was about as painful as imaginable cause I was a big fan."
Damn. That was my worst baseball moment ever; I heard the collective sigh of 40,000 people in the park that night after the first full count walk, and it felt like I was punched in the stomach as I exited Nationals Park. But I only liked Storen, he wasn't one of my favorites. So, it turns out someone else hurt more. Sorry sir.
Question for you, or anyone else. Why does fangraphs have LAD as 57% chance to win game, but when you navigate to their playoff odds page, they have LAD with a 51.5% chance of winning LDS? (FanGraphs prediction mode; when I switch to Season-to-Date Stats projection mode, it changes to 57.2%.)
Anon @ 10:04 - yeah I meant what ultimately ended up being the last game of the series. Mixing it up so that wasn't clear.
GCX - true about the "had to happen" is going to be the take if they lose in any fashion as well.
About Storen this is how I see it. I agree he didn't have to use him in G3 but I think it was probably right that he was going to throw in G2 OR G3 to get back on a more daily-ish schedule like in the season (or else you are on a 1 day pitching in like over a week). The better move given that was to use him in G2 bc that would avoid the possibilty that we saw emerge - used in G3 to stay on sched, then needed in G4 and G5. I suppose you could do what you say - just not use him until needed but personally I think it's better to use them on a more regular schedule
Basically IMO you should always use your best relief arms in the playoffs before a day off because it means more flexibility under my thought process. Of course in the new DS scheduling with the 2nd day off this is less meaningful and a fresh Storen probably mows them down in this alternate universe.
@Ric - you answered your own question. It's the "season-to-date" mode throwing things off. Their playoff odds have a recency "bias" in that they're looking at how the team is playing right now, not how it played over the course of the season. Of course a 106 win team is going to be better. But the Nats and Dodgers have the exact same record since the Nats bottomed out at 19-31.
Ric: Yeah, I was a true believer in Storen both times. I was way up in the 400 section and we were counting down the outs till the NLCS the whole game. I remember screaming "Drewwww" out and being one strike away from the NLCS. It was miserable. Storen was beloved by a huge section of the fanbase and that made it hurt all the worse.
Nightmare scenario for Game 5: Stras tears his ucl and gets pulled in the second or third inning after a severe velo drop. Nats bullpen coughs up runs in the bunches and the Nats never even manage a rally, it's just hopeless the whole way through. Stras needs a second Tommy John in the offseason, Rendon walks, and Scherzer gets traded as the Nats give up and try to rebuild. Stras does not opt out but it's no silver lining as he never recovers from the second TJ and eventually goes the way of King Felix with a loud crowd cheering him on as he loses his final game with the Nats a few years from now, a shell of his former self. The Nats never surpass the glory of winning the WC game, G2, and G4 for another decade or more as the rebuild goes nowhere and Soto signs a mega free agent deal with the Yankees.
There. Nothing can be worse than that.
An Eaton pop-bunt with the bases loaded would be a painful novel way to lose. Double play tootblans with Kendrick between 3rd and home in the 9th would be a treat. There's always the chance that Dodgers lead by a run after the first and Davey saves his best bullpen arms for when they regain the lead, and every inning both teams score a run.
I can guarantee that there is a bad intentional walk, a bad bunt, and a throw over for the first out of the inning at first base. Combined, that will be about 30% win probability gone squandered. Then the journalists will write about the scrappy old school Nats just having bad luck that keeps the NLDS curse alive. I'm so confident they will find a painful way to lose that I think I'll just watch a movie instead.
#Cass. Yeah. That's pretty bad...
Best case scenario, to balance out that last take:
Strasburg pitches the second perfect game in postseason history. He paints fastballs, curves, and changeups perfectly on the corners or just off as the famed Dodgers lineup stares and flails, having no answer to such artistry. Soto, Zimm, MAT, and Rendon all hit home runs and Trea runs around the base paths with impunity. Party in LA. Famed local Scott Boras appears with Anthony Rendon and Mark Lerner after the game to unveil a signed, 8 year extension paying him 240-250 million. The Nats soak up the California sun and head to St Louis or Atlanta with the future looking brighter than at any point in the team's history.
Been playing with House money since May. Been winning at the same pace as the Dodgers since then too. These are evenly matched teams, regardless of what pundits and baseball writers say should happen.
Nats just need to get the baby shark and daddy shark signs, the dugout dances, and the Strasburg Ks going early. Stay loose and score quick Make the Dodgers press to avoid the 'choke' talk.
Will miss the first half of the game with a class. Good luck!
Or . . . Nats lose on a call overturned on a replay.
You know what it probably won't be worse than: The Brandon Belt 16 inning game. I was at Nats Park for that one. It was cold and not much happened for 7 innings. Then we wished that nothing would've continued happening.
@billyhacker I've had the exact same thought, wait and see if they win and then go back and watch it. It's too much stress.
@Cass - Best, then worst case scenario would be Strasburg pitching 9 innings of no/no - and it's tied at zero.
DM then goes to the bullpen for the 10th and it's . . . Strickland who trots to the mound.
Suggesting a Post headline for Thursday is too morbid.
Seriously, I like the idea of Stras pitching a perfect game. As a friend of mine said about her first major league baseball game: "it was the most boring thing I'd ever seen." The game was Sandy Koufax's perfect game on September 9, 1965 at Dodger stadium. That's one way to look at it. Her husband thought 180 degrees differently, and still talks about it.
Regarding Scherzer's availability... here's some food for thought:
"We were definitely surprised, because he's a starter and hadn't relieved and especially not closed." -Wilmer Difo on Kershaw in G5 NLDS, 2016
[we you surprised to see Scherzer?] "I was, yeah, we were not expecting that." -Dave Roberts, G2 NLDS, 2019
The element of surprise! Of course Scherzer would tell people--go out of his way actually--that he wasn't going to be available in G5. Kershaw did it to us on the same amount of rest... I'm not saying its going to happen... but I wouldn't be surprised (like hopefully Roberts & Co will!)
@JWLumley
The Brandon Belt game was actually worse than you remember cuz it went 18 innings. Me and my gf went and couldn't take it anymore after the 11th and went home and watched the rest from the couch with the heat on. Everyone would've been better off if Posey had scored in the 9th instead of getting thrown out at home plate.
You guys have nothing better to do than devise the worst ways to lose this game? geez. The MD basketball team were chokers, and we were conditioned to them choking in big moments until they won it. The CAPS were chokers, and we were conditioned to them choking in big moments until they won it. Teams with the dugout shtick always win... cowboy up, we are family, etc. The Baby Shark and the Dance Party win it for us this year!
No matter what happens I'm OK with losing, bar for 2 reasons:
1) Losing by 1 and we have at least 1 unearned run.
2) Losing with one of our NON top pitchers on the mound (think the Suero's, Rodney's. I'll throw Rainey in here too only because when the games on the line I want Doo & Hudson, but give me Rainey over Suero and Rodney).
If they lose 1-0 with Stras pitching 8 innings with 13 strikeouts, I'll accept that. 2 great pitchers putting together a dominating game.
If they lose 15-13 with Stras, Hudson, Max (!!), Doo & Rainey only one's pitching I could live with that, just wasn't meant to be.
If they lose 1-0 because someone commits an error and that runner scores the only run of the game that would be difficult to live with.
Likewise if they lose 15-13 but Dave brings in Suero to pitch and he allows 8 runs I wouldn't be too happy about that either.
^^This^^
After a busy day, I dial up my favorite Nats blog, excited for the big game tonight... and I find descriptions of different ways to lose, along with a painful accounting of all the historical pain. I remember the stairwells of Nats Park after G5 in 2012... it was like a morgue.
I'm as negative as anyone... but NO MORE. THIS ENDS NOW!
Take it from this kid:
https://twitter.com/betmybookie/status/1181956642503581697
i hope that if we lose we lose by 10. i'm okay losing to a clearly superior team. not okay playing a close game and shitting the bed.
its tough but doable to rebuild a roster - it's a lot harder to shake off a curse
there will be no losing today!
Looks like the winner is facing the Cards...
That's what Atlanta said this morning.
I hope the Nats have a first inning like the Cardinals. Wow.
LOL - headline on ESPN: "Braves to reduce tomahawk chop in game 5."
Yeah, being down 10 runs before you come to bat will do that.
He's gotta be tipping pitches. Right? Right?
So Stras’ curveball is ineffective tonight, fastball is pretty predictable. It’s the second inning... do we think about getting someone up? Oh right... there is no one available.
(re-reads different fail scenarios from above)
Sanchez/Voth, right?
Swinging at soooooooo many breaking balls out of the zone. Is this by design or did we forget any semblance of plan at the plate?
The ghost of Howie Buckner strikes again.
Inning 3 - I've had more beers than Strasburg has had strikeouts. This is a freakin' mess.
What in the world has happened to our boy Stephen Strastynewicz?
Well, we knew we'd have to score some runs. These guys with the bats need to start hitting some gotdang line drives.
Sammy, the Nats have barely gone through the order. Let's see what happens now . . .
Nevermind.
Robot umps now please
Don't you hate it when that happens? And by hate I mean love it
@Harper - I’ll save you a post tomorrow morning. DM lost this game when he pinch him Adams for Corbin. Pretty sure Corbin could have struck out for himself with one out and no one on. There, just wrote it for you.
The greatest gift I could ask for is an ssln post saying I was wrong. Please!!
Howie has redeemed himself forever.
HOWIE!!!!!!
The Good Karma Nats. 3 more outs!
YEAH, BABY!!!!
THAT'S HOWIE DOO IT!!!!
The Dodgers just lost in the most Nationals way possible. POETIC JUSTICE FTW
The baseball season is a marathon. Let's just see how it all plays out.
Incredible. Next it’s time to slay another ghost of playoffs past.
I think this game winds up in the "I could never have imagined winning quite this way" category. Stras gives up more runs than anyone expected, Nats are bad in RISP situations, Buehler is on. But then...
Stras holds them at 3, Rainey does well, so does Corbin. Nats storm back with huge HRs by their best hitter and their youngest (and second best) hitter, then Hudson holds them off, and Howie, who's been having a rough series with errors and TOOTBLANs blasts a granny? Then Doo gets the shutdown inning (nice that he got to finish it off)? I really couldn't have called any of this. These guys are inspired (even though DM still has his limitations) and never quit. Another great moment in a truly momentous season. Wow.
Bring on St Louis. Time to avenge 2012
@ssln - haha, cheers dude. Never been so happy to read one of your posts ;)
Scrap that last post, Harper. I don’t think words can describe this one. Just wow!
What did I tell you! THERE WILL BE NO LOSING TODAY!
That was really something.
Howie, wow!
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