Let's get right into it folks
What the Nats need to do to win
Aces gotta ace. The forever requirement is not just about keeping the Astros down, but about having the Nats avoid pen usage as much as possible. This is as much about 1-2-3 run outings as it is going 7+ innings. So far Max and Stras have mostly aced, and while Corbin has been a little shaky, Sanchez filled up that space. 2 aces acing may not be enough so this needs to keep up.
Remember the Dodgers Plan. The Dodgers were beaten in part by an aggressive bullpen plan that used the starters as relievers multiple times. We need to see the same here. We need to see the best arms out there not only to hold onto leads but to keep winnable games close. There's time to rest in the off-season. Time to heal when you are looking at your World Series ring.
Someone else has gotta get hot. Right now it's Rendon, Howie, and a bunch of timely hitting. But "Yan Gomes will keep coming through" is probably not going to work. The Nats need someone else to get team carrying hot along with the two aforementioned bats. Soto is the most likely guy, but it doesn't have to be him. Turner, Eaton, hell Suzuki, Zimm - someone good just has to have that series. And oh yeah, Rendon and Kendrick can't cool off.
Keep up the solid D. Outside of Howie's early NLCS issues and Soto's continuing audition for first base the Nats have played pretty well in the field. They'll need to keep that up as Houston puts the ball in play a ton. The Nats defense is probably average, with highlights (Rendon, Robles) covering for the lowlights, and average in baseball is actually pretty good. So this isn't asking for anything crazy here.
What the Astros need to do to win.
Take advantage of the AL game. The DH allows you to get an extra bat in there and to go through relievers with a bit more abandon. The Nats won't be helped too much by this, because their added bat (probably Dozier as Howie shifts to DH) will simply be ok and they've already established pitching performance not pinch hitting decisions were what decided how long their pitchers went. The Astros, with a few arms they can use, and an extra bat that should hit very well should be able to take advantage of it more. The DH was a disappointment in the ALCS. It would help the Astros a ton if it just met expectations in the World Series.
Keep hitting homers. The Astros actually struggled in the ALCS with an unimpressive line against some solid starts and a very good pen. But they still won because they hit timely homers. Both Max and Stras have shown issues giving up the long ball, especially early in games. Aces can bear down and shut down rallies but they can't keep runs off the board if the ball goes over the fence.
Work the Nats starters. The Astros lead the majors in walks and batting average. Their .352 OBP is first in the majors (10 points ahead of the Nats - who for comparison are 10 points better than 8th place Chicago). Aces might be close to the top of their game but worked for the occasional walk and plenty of foul balls might still be forced out early. That's what the Astros need to do - get the starters out before the 6th ends. Make the Nats use more than 2 relievers
Don't get distracted. Did you hear the Astros cheat and care more about winning than domestic violence? Maybe this is an exaggeration but it's the story right now and off-field stories can get pretty distracting to players, especially when struggling and everything feels bigger. Hinch's job will be keep them on the game at hand and let everything else play out for itself.
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With regards to OBP, does 10 points of difference account for pitchers hitting or not? I would think that 2-3 PA's per game of someone with a .200 OBP would drag down a team's overall OBP.
Since the Nats are such huge underdogs here, they're basically playing with house money and all the pressure is on the Astros to win. If the Nats can somehow win Game 1, it'll put a ton of pressure on Houston.
Good stuff as usual Harper. I think the overall road map to win is what one of the commenters laid out last series: split the road games, and take 2 of 3 at home. Tough, but doable.
JW - quick math - yes. Or really almost. Take out the pitchers (from both) and I think the Astros squeak out an OBP lead by a point or two.
Yes the Plan is TAKE ONE IN HOUSTON, WIN THE CORBIN GAME (Greinke has not looked good, Corbin is great at home), WIN THE BULLPEN GAME. THEN TAKE ONE OF LAST THREE
If the Nats win the Verlander game they'll be on track, however, if they can somehow win the Cole game tonight, I think it will be akin to "the Russian is cut!" from Rocky IV. Cole has been unstoppable, if you can stop him, it could throw the Astros into disarray.
I'm with JWL. I think MAx v Cole is a tough matchup, one that has a lot of emotional value to both teams, but the Nats are coming into it as underdogs. I currently think the Nats lose a decent but not especially competitive series in 6 games, but if they can win G1 against Cole I think they win it. Obviously that's not a bold bet, exactly, because winning G1 is huge no matter what, but I'm also one of those pessimists who has maintained all year long that this team is no good and has no business beating good teams ever, so feeling even conditional confidence is a pretty big thing!
Drago!!!!!!!!
i'm not going to use a lot of fancy stats, just go off hope and call it Nationals in 5 games! Why not! Expos fan since the early 90s; this is the baseball gods giving something back for the 94 season! So nervous I can't hardly eat, I'll be pacing around tonight while trying to watch the game.
I guess what I meant was MAx v COLE, to be clear that Max has been very good but not his perfect form in the playoffs, and Cole has been tremendous.
This could easily backfire but cole was not tremendous in game 3 against the yankees. walked 5 and threw a bunch of hittable pitches with runners on but the slumping yankees middle of order couldnt do anything. i think nats ability to make contact will be a big factor in this series
We need Spanky, Tony Two Bags, and Childish Bambino to do what they do best against Cole: work the count. I want to see a bunch of spoiled pitches every time Cole faces 2-4 in the order. Like 15 pitches each time through. That happens and Max is at the very least MAx as Josh puts it, I think the Nats can pull out a victory.
But my prediction is Stros in in 7. I think the Nats win the 1st Corbin and Sanchez games, but lose both the Cole-Max games and split the Stras-Verlander games. The games will be close, but the Astros have the slight edge.
Clearly the Astros are and should be the favorites. And Cole's recent results are better than Max's, so I think you favor the Cole side of that matchup. HOWEVER, if you look at overall season stats, I think Cole v. Max is close to a matchup of equals. Cole is #1 in K/9 with a record-setting 13.82, but Max is second (12.9), and walks fewer batters, which means Max has a slightly better overall FIP - 2.45 for Max vs. 2.64 for Cole. xFIP, on the other hand, slightly favors Cole - 2.48 for Cole vs. 2.88 for Max - because Cole is very dinger prone for such a good pitcher, even moreso than Max (home ballpark may have an effect). But the point here is this: on a rate-basis, Max and Cole are the best two starters in baseball (with deGrom as the only other starter who belongs in the discussion). Either is capable of absolute unhittable dominance. Given that Cole has been a machine since May and Max is coming off an injury and *some* performances that have pulled his averages up, and that Houston's lineup is better, you have to give Cole the edge ex ante. But it's close.
Strasburg and Verlander is a similar story. Purely from a statistical perspective, both are a cut below their teammates. They have virtually identical FIPs (3.25 for Stras, 3.27 for Verlander) and xFIPs (3.17 for Stras, 3.18 for Verlander). Verlander's ERA is lower mainly because of his ridiculously low BABIP of .218. You might expect Verlander to be a low BABIP guy because he's an extreme flyball guy, but this BABIP is an outlier - 60 points off his career average of .281 and 50 points off the .271 he put up last year when the Houston juju turned him into a K machine. I think this matchup is about as close to a tossup as you can get, but I favor Strasburg ever so slightly because his recent results have simply been better than Verlander's.
Lets go 1-0. G Cole is beatable. We know we are underdogs and we don't mind that. GO NATS!
I'm with Anonymous @ 9:15 - Win the next game. And of course you do that by scoring more runs than the other team. And if Max has figured out how to not give up taters in the first, that might just happen.
Performance in 2019 playoffs only (ERA/FIP/xFIP):
Pitcher A: 3.70/4.49/4.60
Pitcher B: 1.64/1.53/1.62
Pitcher C: 1.80/3.66/3.80
Pitcher D: 0.40/2.02/3.29
Looking at those numbers (and only those numbers), Pitcher B is pretty clearly the best (all numbers agree on excellence) and Pitcher A is pretty clearly the worst (all numbers agree on "ok"). Pitcher D is also pretty clearly better than Pitcher C (numbers better across the board, though they don't agree).
A is Verlander, B is Strasburg, C is Scherzer, and D is Cole.
AT HOUSTON: Games 1,2, 6 and 7
TURNER
EATON
RENDON
SOTO
HOWIE
CABRERA
ZIMMERMAN
ROBLES
SUZUKI
AT HOME: Games 3,4,5
TURNER
EATON
RENDON
SOTO
HOWIE
ZIMMERMAN
ROBLES
SUZUKI/GOMES
PITCHER
Hopefully R-L-R-L-R-L lineup at Houston whould disrupt Houston pitchers' rythm.
Anon 9:10:
Perhaps there's no crying in baseball (a doubtful premise, in any case).
But there is definitely no classical Latin in baseball.
I'm showing my age, but this is sorta reminiscent of 1968 Bob Gibson (1.12 ERA) vs. Denny McLain (31-6). In game 1 all the hoopla belonged to Gibson, who set the still-standing record of 17 Ks in a World Series game. They matched up again in game 4, and again Gibson was the winner. McLain pitched and won game 6 on two days rest to force game 7, which Gibson lost to Mickey Lolich, also pitching on two days rest. Lolich is the last man to pitch three complete game victories in a World Series, winning games 2, 5, and 7 and going the distance in all three.
I do not suggest that there are any omens to be drawn from 1968. Just that the attention on starting pitching is similar.
Let's make Cole the new Flaherty.
If we win 1 game in Houston, all the pressure is on Astros. I am sure they will have Zack Greinke for game 3, who has been rocked this post-season. If Anibal Sanchez can replicate his
NLCS game 1 performance, who knows whats possible.
So who's excited for that Caps - Flames game tonight? That Johnny Gaudreau is looking tough!
"At the start of the playoffs, few pundits predicted the Nationals would get past the Dodgers in the NL Division Series. MLB Network analyst Bill Ripken was an exception; the former Orioles second baseman picked Washington and Houston to meet in the World Series, and the Nationals to overpower the Astros for the franchise’s first championship." - WAPO
I wore a ghost of the 1994 season costume (zombie face, Expos jersey/hat) to a Halloween party this weekend. It was a hit. Now let's exorcise those demons!
I'll keep this simple: GO NATS!!!
Three biggest factors for me:
1) Astros plate discipline: if they are their normal patient self, that lineup is going to wear down our starters. Most notably Corbin, who throws his slider for a strike like 9% of the time. If they don’t chase pitches, we’re in trouble. If they do chase - this ones in the bad and it’s NLCS part deux.
2) Nats plate discipline: same as above. This part of the game is so crucial and in my opinion, is what ultimately undid LA, STL, and NYY. 8-9 guys all going for 500 ft bombs is not a way to win a series. This was the infuriating part of our postseason version of the Nats (2012-2017). I’m so glad they’ve avoided that stupid, selfish/brain-dead philosophy this October. Stay smart. Stay in the fight.
3) Controlling Altuve: he’s the only one who’s been on fire. Don’t let him be the reason we lose this series. If it’s anyone else, that’s fine. They’re a good team and although a lot of bats are cold right now, they’re bound to break out eventually. So be it. Just don’t lose to Altuve.
I wonder if the Astros will prey on the weakness of Suzuki's arm? He's had more passed balls then guys he's thrown out. It's almost a free base if anyone with average speed is on first. Teams haven't really taken advantage of it since no one seems to remember how to steal bases, but Altuve used to be great at it, and most of their guys seem athletic enough to at least threaten to do so. I just hope it's no longer in their playbook.
coolsny, you gotta love Billy Ripken. He is right up there with Old Hoss Radbourn in his rakish flouting of the rules when posing for photographs.
Nats- Astros fan here. It's been an incredible season for the Nats, long overdue for a franchise that has been consistently good. We have watched the majority of both Nats and Astros games this year. The Astros are just a better team. I think it will be a close series, but Astros home field advantage will be important as the Astros are super in MMP. I think Nats lose Gams 1 & 2, but Astros lose Games 3 & 4 in Nats Park. Astros win Game 5 and Game 6 back in MMP. Astros in 6.
@Chas How can you be a fan of two teams? Even the soulless automaton Harper is only a Yankees fan.
1. The key to competing against Cole (not necessarily beating him) is finding a way to lay off the high fastball. Very tough. Gotta try.
2. I think there’s a very good chance we see Corbin in relief tonight or tomorrow, then have Sánchez in G3 and Corbin in G4.
3. Interesting that Astros have no LHP on roster to bring in to face Soto/Eaton. I guess they have some RHP with reverse splits but still.
4. @Harper. I’ve said this a few times...but after being terrible last year, Soto went straight to being an average defender in LF this year by all the metrics. I guess you can say “i don’t trust the metrics, i know a bad outfielder when i see one.” But to my eyes he was average this year. He’s not going to 1B any time soon....even if he were a worse outfielder than he is, what guarantee is there that the guy would be anything but hideous at 1B? Although he’s made a couple bad plays this playoffs, he’s also made some good ones. (Diving play off Kershaw line drive in G2 NLDS.)
Anyway. Go Nats. This game they have nothing to lose. Win and you shock everybody. Lose and then you just have to hope Stras beats Verlander (which he definitely can....and I think he will.)
Thoughts on Taubman, and how the Astros responded?
Exactly the lineup I gave earlier in morning except I put Robles ahead of Suzuki since he is hitting better.
Let's take 1 of first 2 and make it into DIVISION series situation. Annibal Sanchez will be a big X-factor in game 4/5.
Go NATS!
@G Cracka, I'm ashamed to say my first thought was "$hit, now the Nats are the good guys, and the good guys never win."
But more seriously, the stros had so many chances to not be a$sholes here, and they failed every time. Just terrible.
Interesting that Ross and Suero are on the roster, but not Voth. Probably makes no difference, because the only way any of those 3 pitch is if the Nats are way behind, or the game goes well into extra innings. I suppose Ross could be a pinch runner. Strickland is not on the roster. Guerra is.
First shot across the bow by the Nats. Odds not so heavily in favor of Astros now.
Martinez manages a good game. Pulls Scherzer, Rainey at the right time. Gets strong performances from Hudson and Doo.
Main story is the bats --- that take down Cole. Nats 2 HR, Astros 1. Scherzer doesn't give up a tater at all.
Game 2 will be tough. Bull pen will not be as fresh if Strass can't get deep.
Go Nats.
Wow. That took years off my life. The pitching was a bit creaky tonight, but they cobbled a win together.
They may have learned that Altuve can hit a high fastball
I think this win was huge psychologically and answered so many questions that could have lingered. Yes, the Nationals belong here and aren't going to get swept. Yes, we can get to Cole. Yes, SOTO seems to have shown up. This team has seemed to play loose no matter what, but this can only help.
I can't believe the Astro's don't have a left-handed pitcher on their world series roster. Hopefully, Soto continues to make them pay. If you would have told me that Scherzer would go 5, Rainey would walk 2 and only get 1 out, Rendon and Kendrick would go 0-8, then I definitely would have figured they lost. Hopefully, they can win another tonight.
I don't think Doo and Hudson threw too many pitches, so they should be ok for game 2. Of course the middle innings will be even more of a challenge tonight; you can't use Corbin again without killing his start completely. Thankfully, if there's anyone you feel remotely confident in going 7+, it's Stras.
Just read an SI piece about hitting "savant" and him hitting the high fastball on to the tracks for a home run. On replay, it didn't look to be too high.
And I thought Zimm's homer was high but, on replay, Cole grooved it and Ryan made him pay.
Kudos to both the old man and the kid. Tonight it will be the Rendon and Howie show.
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