After four previous tries, three agonizing and one lifeless, the Nats finally advance in the playoffs. You’ll hear people say the Nats haven’t won a playoff series and that’s true, but inconsequential in the moment. The Nats, and more so their fans, needed THIS. They needed a big win in the playoffs that sent them off to face another team. They needed their signature franchise moment to no longer be a GW G4 HR before an heart-breaking G5 loss. No matter what happens now this win can’t be taken away from them.
About the game itself it really came down to two managers treating a pitcher like something he’s not. We discussed this a good deal before this game but Max isn’t MAX. He isn’t the unstoppable force he’s been for most of his time here in DC. He’s coming back from injury and for whatever reason particularly vulnerable to home runs. He’s not your HAVE TO guy right now. He’s one of three and if we were going on recent performance most people felt objectively Strasburg was the one who should start. But Davey chose Max and Max gave a B/B- performance.
On the other side Josh Jader has been a dominant closer but since the All-Star break he’s merely been very good. It’s a small distinction but an important one as dominant arms have long saves in planning but you don’t square away six outs for a very good pitcher unless you have to. But Counsell decidedto set this game around Hader for 2 and when he came in obviously having trouble finding spots Counsell had little alternative but to let him try and work it out. It didn’t.
A lot of talk has been about Davey and his performance. I’ve heard phrases like Gepetto pulling strings. You come here for objective analysis Though and objectively Davey was poor. Fair if I’m being generous. One of the things is Davey didn’t actually have a lot to think about last night. The Nats lack of production, the best pitchers being in, the Brewers general quiet after early, led to a low decision night. Let’s review them all
Max starts - We discussed this earlier but Stras was the pick. You could justify picking Max over Stras but Stras isn't Anibal Sanchez. You shouldn't be looking for reasons a hot Strasburg shouldn't pitch over a faulty Max. You have three aces. Act like that's true and go with the hot hand.
Line-up - Suzuki has been Max's pitcher for most of the year now. That wasn't really a Davey call. But Kendrick and Cabrera were. Sure they were obvious but you did have to avoid the heart string tugging and telling you to start Zimm.
Max hits -In the third Max was due up and he was doing better. The line-up for the Brewers was heading toward the bottom. I can see the argument for keeping him in. But the Nats needed runs and had two aces to fill-in as necessary. There was no need to keep Max in unless he was cruising and he wasn't. Subsequently Max would have a line-out, double to start the next inning and then came the 5th
Max 5th - Max was already muddling along (for him) when he walked Shaw to start the inning. With Grandal, who blasted a homer and hit a long fly ball next time up looming. Max should have been pulled. He wasn't. He got out Grisham and then walked Grandal. Should be pulled. He showed why being unable to put away Moustakas despite having him down 1-2 on three straight pitches. it would work out as Moustakas fouled out and Huira was swing happy but this was an unecessary gamble by Davey
Dozier PHs - The Brewers brought in Suter a LHP which meant if you got to Max's position you'd have a huge at bat that had to be taken by a righty. That's Zimm's time. Instead Dozier got the call. This is doubly questionable when you figure if the Nats do comeback you really want to pull the old man Howie for Dozier and work him and As Cab in 1st / 2nd D in someway. Dozier grounded out but Moustakas bailed him out by sailing the throw. Turner would hit the ball well but it was a fly ball out. A big situation went to their 2nd best option which also messed up late inning defense possibilities. A bad call and I don't see how anyone can avoid thinking this.
MAT for PH - There wasn't a real decision again until the 8th. You had to pull Max for Dozier (deciding to PH for Max was a duh move I didn't even put on here) Stras coming in was the obvious choice. Stras cruised. the Nats never threatened and the line-up had to get back to the pitcher spot before Davey had to think again. You could see what he wanted to do. He wanted Zimm in a big spot to drive in a run and when no one got on he opted for MAT*. This is the batting equivalent on not using your best pitcher in the biggest moment in the game because it's the 8th and what if an even BIGGER moment came up later? You can't make decisions this late on things that might never happen. It's terrible managing. You have to play for now which meant Zimm was the move. instead MAT came up and was given a gift when a ball that 90% probably hit the bat first was ruled a HBP and you can't overturn if it's not 100%. MAT didn't do his job as much as had the job finished for him. There's nothing about this that says smart move.
Zimm for Eaton - because MAT got on Eaton got his Zimm in a big spot situation and Zimm promptly... flared a bloope to CF off a broken bat. Zimm didn't come up big. He got lucky. Davey got lucky.
Hudson instead of Doolittle - It wasn't TOO much of a choice, but it had to be made and with Thame up first you could have argued for a Doolittle start to the inning if you wanted. But Davey went straight to Hudson, had Doo warming as a back up. It almost didn't work out. Hudson got Thames but Cain singled off him and Davey stuck with Hudson versus another lefty in Gamel. Gamel hit in on the nose but a little too under it and in the wrong part of the park for that.
Eight decisions. Six in game. How many unquestionably the right ones in the moment? Two I guess? There's no genius here. No man pushing all the right buttons. It's a guy making the wrong call on a bunch of 25% / 75% situations and it working out. I don't know why it hard to see that.
I also don't know why you care. You make bad moves and they work out all the time. Baseball is filled with 60/40 choices. It's a 60/40, 55/45 game. You want someone that makes the 60 choices all the time but you can go 40 40 40 and have it work out, you can go 60 60 60 and have it not. Hell put three choices out there and chances one of them won't go your way.
Davey didn't show me anything I haven't seen before. Didn't prove anything. If he has a strength it's not in the managing decisions during the game. He could be a clubhouse inspiration. That matters too. But let's not squint and stand on a chair and try to make that game into some sort of Master Class on managing.
What this win DOES mean about Davey is that he's definitely back. I don't see how he isn't. Contract in hand. WC win. Amazing regular season comeback. All the impetus is to keep him. I guess the NLDS could go disastrously but outside of that you might be making the right move if you fire him but you're swimming against the tide to do it and with a contract to pay out, why bother? Makes far more sense for the team to let that tide take Davey into 2020 and see if that amazing middle 80 games were a seed of something more.
*that MAT had a HR in 1AB I think is irrelevant here. A nice side note but not influencing or else he would have had MAT on deck all the way.
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@Harper - You make some good points about DM not having to make any hard decisions, at least until towards the end of the game.
From what I saw, though, he didn't HAVE to make any hard decisions. And what decisions he did make turned out well, as you say.
Looking forward to the Dodgers (the team I grew up with). I'm not, however, looking forward to coming into work on Friday, sleep deprived.
Fans SHOULD be able to divorce what you really care about (did it work out at all) from what you want to bring up when making long term decisions (was it the best option to work out) but we can't. If it works out at all we tend to accept that it was the best option and make decisions from there. It's enough to make a soulless automaton leak oil from his ocular unit but I've been following sports long enough to know this is how it goes.
@Harper - good post, and really just trying to remember your first paragraph, as it was positive. The rest reeked of "hey they won, but they still aren't very good. Congrats." But appreciate the objectiveness nonetheless, its what we come here for. Someone's gotta say it, right?!
On DM: I think part of what makes a good manager is putting your players in the best position to succeed. We talk about this all the time. I think part of putting the "right guy" up at what we think is the "right time" and then he fails, is that the manager didn't set him up to succeed. There's a feel for the games that a manager must have and it can't really be quantified or defined (which is super annoying, I know). But as crazy as it sounds, it has to do with DM looking down his bench and thinking, "yes, MAT. I don't why, but I have a feeling." And you have to go with that as DM, because he knows these guys better than we do, and sometimes better than their stats define them. We can agree that Dusty was so good at this, but poor at other things. Dusty KNEW his players, and believed in them (stay with me here). The player sees that as "lets go, I know you got this" instead of "you better not screw this up, the stats say you hit Hader well, so don't screw this up."
How a player feels going into a tough situation is everything. Pressure from the fans, himself, his agent/contract down the road... you can psych yourself out. The manager needs to buffer that and be the source of some positive thinking. I think DM does that well. Put it this way, if DM were a "tactical wiz," meaning he puts in the "right guy" - the guy you think he should put in, and it fails, does that make him a good manager?
a veces necesita un poco de magia...
just going to fangirl the rest of the playoffs. can't focus on DM's moves and non moves. he is what he is. appreciate the soulless takes that push me further into my emotional irrational fandom
The MAT HBP... I heard several non-Nats fans say they thought it hit his wrist first, acknowledging I'm biased and clearly think it hit him first :)
It wasn't a strike, he didn't swing, and it hit him. I think most umpires are going to award first base on that play. If it was a strike, and MAT's out over the plate...I'd say there's an argument, but it was not. He's trying to get out of the way.
ZIMM... Davey was clearly waiting on a man-on situation for Zim. It was weird to put him out there and pull him back twice like that... just strange.
Glad Hader didn't have his breaking stuff working and the team was able to capitalize. A 3-1 loss would have been devastating.
Ole PBN - THEY are very good. It's just that Davey isn't. THEY can (though probably won't) beat the Dodgers. THEY can make and win the WS.
I completely agree that if a manager goes on his gut and it works there's a not unreasonable look at it like "Maybe he just knows the team" But in this case even the results that work out didn't do that for Davey. MAT didn't do anything. He got hit. Zimm didn't come up with a big hit, the bat broke and it dropped into CF. Nothing here says "He's got a good feeling about these guys and know when they can do it" It was a series of breaks.
If Davey ALWAYS made the right choice over seasons and it didn't work out... That's hard to contemplate. I guess we'd first have to look at how we are defining right choice. If it's always not working out there's probably something underlying we aren't considering. (we're a good another season before maybe even thinking about that for Davey - he has not had everything work out for him)
Z11 - I would have given him first. In my mind if I look at a replay where it's a HBP and I don't immediately say "Oh yeah foul" just give the base to the guy. He got hit! That hurts!
I just copy/pasted my post from the previous entry comments so I could show off my new profile pic taken a few seconds after Robles caught the 27th out.
The last 20 minutes were fun. I was in section 404, left field foul line. It appeared to me that Soto was going to make third fairly easily, but he pulled up way before the ball got to the infield. With his back to the play he obviously didn't know if the Brewers were going to try and cut Rendon down at the plate, but since Anthony was the go-ahead run it made perfect sense for them to do that if at all possible. In essence getting caught in a rundown was probably unnecessary, but still a very savvy, smart move, erring on the side of giving your team the best chance to grab the lead.
I honestly like our chances against the Dodgers IF the stinking offense will wake up. It's the prospect of facing the gotdang Braves again that worries me. The Dodgers not so much. Seriously. Take all the stupid sabermetrics and cram them where the sun don't shine. We can beat LA in three straight. If I were manager, I'd use Corbin and Sanchez in the Ravine and Max and Stras at home, with Corbin pitching game 5 if necessary. If we lose game 1, you do NOT NOT NOT NOT pitch Max in game 2. Under no friggin' circumstances do you pitch Max in game 2. NO NO NO.
If he pitched in game 2, Max would be going on 2 days rest. He only threw 75ish pitches, but still. No way that happens. Sanchez game 2, then hopefully Stras in Game 3, Max game 4 and Corbin game 5, with Stras out of the bullpen if necessary.
Don't Corbin and Sanchez have pretty good away splits? or is it the other way around
The MAT move is indefensible. Here's a guy that was so bad at hitting the baseball he spent most the year in AAA, where he proceeded to hit .248 with minimal pop. You carried 3 catchers for a reason. I understand you want to "save" Zim, but even Yan Gomes, who's been hot of late, is a better option right there. Also, it was apparent that Hader's command was suspect, Gomes isn't a great hitter, but he can work a walk and then you pinch run with Stevenson or MAT, that's what MAT was there for, to pinch run and/or play defense.
Still, Rendon has been ice-cold and outside of Soto's heroics last night so has he, they need to get going for the Nats to have a chance.
Strasburg is pitching on Friday, he basically threw a bullpen session last night (30 pitches) in preparation for his start. Max gm3 in DC. Sanchez gm4. Corbin starts gm 5 and everyone else available.
If we win game 1, MAYBE they trot Sanchez out there for gm2. I doubt it.
People last night were saying Strasburg in game 2. He only threw 34 pitches.
@coolsny Corbin has been much, much better at home then on the road, while Sanchez has been about a run better on his ERA on the road.
However, if the Nats lose Game 1, I can see a case for coming back with Strasburg on Friday for Game 2. Yesterday's appearance wasn't a whole lot more than side work. He only threw 34 pitches.
Wow, I can see we all think alike, Strasburg in game 2! Haha.
34 pitches yes but i think his warm up was more involved than it would have been for a bullpen session. either way i like the idea of sanchez only pitching game 2 if we win game 1.
i don't like sanchez pitching in an elimination game. in fact at this point i don't want to see anyone pitching in an elimination game other than strasburg.
and i really hope the dodgers are aggressive against corbin. if they hold off on his slider and he starts to rack up the walks...
@Z11
I was thinking about that.
My only hesitation is that yesterday was his normal day. I'm not sure if shifting a half rotation and how jarring a sequence of: start, bullpen, intense bullpen in relief and then start would be.
Is that harder than than start, intense bullpen in relief, the start on normal schedule? I have no idea.
But I do think Stras has earned the right to know his body and his preparation. And if he says, "sure, 30 pitches, I'm good for friday", then I start him in game 2 100% of the time. Otherwise, he's game 3 and Max is game 4.
Even with only two days' rest there would be some out there--and we know who they are-- clamoring for Max to pitch game 2 should we lose game 1. "You can't risk going down 2 zip with the best pitcher in all of baseball for the last five million years sitting in the dugout, especially with his XBPWHIPERAWAR/IPXYZ to the nth power metric being what it is." Anibal Sanchez is pitching well. His road ERA is almost a full run lower than home. Use him in game 2.
So many times, I've felt like the Nats have outplayed the other team, but had some really crappy luck and timing. Last night was a lucky break. Despite no real offense we scored 4 runs.
Look, Davey got lucky and if his only skill is being lucky in playoff games in that early '10s, even-year Giants way, I'm totally fine with that. I've played enough video games to know that luck can be a stat, so I will resolve my cognitive dissonance by assuming DM has a luck stat with an October boost.
My eyes bugged out of my head when MAT came up, but it worked out and the way it happened exorcised some DC sports demons in the process. So it was also the right move for the franchise in the long run to use luck to win in the post-season.
There. No need to inquire further.
Harper...a little harsh here with the after thoughts. Lucky hit? Baseball is a game of luck, it built into the DNA of the game. How many games have been won in World Series history with a "lucky hit". There is no such thing...there is hitting the ball, hard or soft, to a spot that gets you on base. That's why hitting the ball is better than striking out. I have to disagree on MAT in the eight. Why bat Zimm, there was no advantage there. Nobody on, one out. No I bat Zimm when there's a chance to do damage or keep the line moving (which is what happened)...or I wait til the ninth and i'm desperate. Maybe MAT hits a slow roller. He's fast...could happen. MAT got hit, no luck involved. A pitcher with control problems the entire inning. Did the throat get tight? We'll never know.
from baseball-references newsletter-
Obviously, the biggest play yesterday was Juan Soto coming up with the bases loaded and batting in 3 runs to move the Nationals ahead of the Brewers for good. In sudden-death postseason history, that play was the 3rd-biggest win probability swing ever, only trailing Francisco Cabrera’s walkoff hit in the 1992 NLCS and Hal Smith’s 3-run home run in the 8th inning of Game 7 of the 1960 World Series.
Whom the gods wish to destroy they first make MAT.
Harper, I think your criticism of Davey for pinch-hitting MAT is fine and correct, but your criticism of MAT is far too strong. You write "MAT didn't do his job as much as had the job finished for him." MAT worked a walk, which he deserves credit for. The bloviating over whether the pitch hit his hand or the bat first obscures the fact that the pitch was a ball on a 3-2 count, and MAT didn't swing at it. It would have been a great stroke of luck for the BREWERS if the ball had hit the bat first - such an event would have turned a base on balls into another pitch. Had the pitch hit the bat first, it would have been a terrible stroke of luck for MAT and the Nats - a batter doesn't swing at a ball outside the strike zone on a 3-2 count and yet he has to keep hitting.
MAT is not a good hitter, and he should not be hitting in a playoff game until all other, better options have been exhausted. But he worked a walk off Hader last night, and he should get credit for it even if it's not in the stat sheet.
Harper, I think you're a little harsh on a couple of those calls. PH Dozier against a LHP isn't a bad decision; the man had a 128 wRC+ against LHP this year, which is exactly in line with his career 129. (Zim sported a 151, but also only 49 PAs.) And Davey didn't do anything stupid like double-switch Cabrera or Kendrick out of the lineup.
And as for Hudson, well, I can see using Doolittle instead (because it immediately removes Thames entirely), but good relievers are supposed to be able to get people out. Hudson is supposed to be the best reliever on the team at this point (we can argue if it's true or not, but that's the underlying assumption behind why he's the closer), so put him in and just let him pitch that single inning.
Now, can we get the Cubs or Cardinals to give us something of value in the offseason for MAT by convincing them he's an infallible antidote to Josh Hader... :)
@Harper: I agree with your thesis that Dave M. is not a good tactical manager. But he has the confidence of the players, and he kept the team together after a horrible, injury-riddled start.
I agree that Dave M. made tactical mistakes during the game.
Strasburg should have started. Scherzer should have been pulled earlier.
The MAT pinch-hitting was crazy, but the stats said that in 2 appearances, MAT had a home run and a walk against Hader. And on the HBP, let's be clear: the last pitch was ball four, so if MAT weren't hit he would have walked. Not that anyone could have expected MAT to draw a walk, but he did -- so give him credit for that (especially since Robles and Turner both struck out on high fastballs).
Zimm was lucky where the ball dropped, but he made his own luck by hitting a high fastball -- the same pitch on which Robles and Turner struck out.
The spot where Dozier pinch hit made sense. No one on base, a long ball would be terrific.
I don't see any reason to bring in Doo to pitch to Thames. Hudson is a better pitcher right now. Use him. If the Brewers score a run, you have Doo to pitch the 10th.
Fun facts about MAT
Career playoff OBP - .429
Career playoff OPS - 1.076
OBP against Josh Hader - 1.000
OPS against Josh Hader - 5.0
OBP for month of Sept - .500
OPS for month of Sept - 1.417
He basically worked a walk... he was unlucky in that an inside ball 4 hit him and the bat at the same time, but he got the call.
@Mark - Small data size so of course they look kinda drastic - in a good way.
What's Max's post-season ERA now?
As much as I despise Ron Darling and his Mets homerism, I was so glad that he pointed out the inconsistency in Mike Everitt's strike zone as it was benefiting the Brewers far more than the Nats. That one AB (I believe it was the Dozier PH?) was deplorable. And I had to feel for Max, he wasn't getting any borderline calls up OR down.
But a win is a win and the Nats live to fight another day (or 3+)
@W - I know. That was partly tongue in cheek, but he had been hitting well in September and he has had some good streaks here and there in his career. Hitting a HR and working a walk against, Hader, even though it was only 2 PA, proved he is not overwhelmed by Hader or the big moment of the late innings in an elimination playoff game.
@Cautiously Pessimistic Yeah, what idiot at TBS was like, "Hey, we need some announcers for the WAS - MIL, game?" "I know, we'll get the guy who calls basketball and we'll pair him up with the Mets and Braves announcers. I'm sure people will love that!"
Personally, I don't dislike Darling, but Frenchy and Ernie Johnson are just terrible. How bad you ask? Bad enough to make you wish for Buck and McCarver.
"Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good!"
@JWLumley - The last time I watched TBS was when Skip "The Human Sleeping Pill" Carey was broadcasting in the early 1990s, well before he died (in 2008). So even though he's dead, I still feared that the broadcasters would suck.
I had the volume down and mostly watched the game, ignoring the drivel. That's easy to do when one can take one's hearing aids out.
Right? It was if the umpire got hit in the head and couldn't see straight or something.
Everitt's SZ was all over the place.
Ernie is unlistenable. He doesn't know the rules of the game. There was a playoff game a few years back, when he thought a ball on the infield that started fair and then rolled into foul territory was a base hit. Darling had to tell him it was a foul ball.
@JW, Buck and McCarver?
Oh..I don't know about that dude! But then again I listened to Charlie and Dave while I was AT the game, so I'm spoiled.
@Froggy Darling makes it better than Buck and McCarver, but just Frenchy and Ernie Johnson and yeah, I'd say Buck and McCarver are better, it's that bad. Frenchy doesn't even talk in coherent sentences half the time and Johnson doesn't understand baseball at a basic level.
Just curious, how many times have you all re-watched the Soto hit? I love the beer flying in the stands.
Couple thoughts:
Agree DM is bad, and don't have a great game (starting Max is the move of a guy who just doesnt want to be criticized if it goes wrong). That said, it seems a little unfair to complain that he didn't use Zimm earlier and then also say, after he does use Zimm and he gets on, that it was a mistake to use him because he didn't hit the ball well.
Also, it was obviously the right call at the time, but I definitely would not have had confidence that Davey would actually pull Eaton in that situation, so that was at least encouraging.
One thing I haven't seen much talk of, though, is with Soto's spot 9 batter's away, how do you not leave Stevenson in as a defensive replacement in LF? That seemed crazy.
@JW I've probably watched it 30 times. It makes me giddy like a school girl to see the Nats on the beneficial side of a game so similar to the Cards game 5. The one major difference I feel like this year for the Nats is that they've been lucky, the dice finally seem to be rolling their way. Maybe part of that is the "never give up" mentality and clubhouse atmosphere, but there's no way of knowing
I think enough people have chimed in why it wasn't ridiculous to pinch hit MAT. And we all understand small sample size. But when it comes to Nationals post season, all stats are small sample size. And in that small universe, MAT is .294/.429/.647, with a 1.076 OPS.
Again, only 17 ABs. But he was the only one who showed up in the 2017 series against the Cubs. At what point does that give Martinez a little leeway? (Fun trivia: MAT is the only player in MLB history to have consecutive postseason games with four or more RBI.)
@Harper said: "He wanted Zimm in a big spot to drive in a run and when no one got on he opted for MAT. This is the batting equivalent on not using your best pitcher in the biggest moment in the game because it's the 8th and what if an even BIGGER moment came up later? You can't make decisions this late on things that might never happen. It's terrible managing. You have to play for now which meant Zimm was the move."
There was one out, and nobody on base. You have the pitcher's spot and Eaton's spot coming up; both will need to be pinch hit for. I've no problem Martinez wanting Taylor to bat before Zimmerman. I want the quick guy on base before the guy I think has a better chance to drive in the run.
I totally understand if you think the right move is Zimmerman, then Turner, then Taylor. But I don't think it is egregious to go Taylor/Turner/Zimmerman.
@BxJaycobb said "But can we agree it was the DUMBEST THING. DAVEY HAS EVER DONE." Again, Taylor went 5-6 in the last week of the season. He ended his stint in Harrisburg hitting over .300. So, it wasn't the dumbest thing Davey has ever done. By far. This falls in line with all your hyperbole this season. You argued that the Nats would have a better road record than home record. On September 20 you chastised someone for suggesting the Nats might get HFA. "Wait what? No chance. The Brewers will finish ahead of the Nats. Watch... The Brewers will be the WC home team—I’m virtually certain."
(I actually agree with you a lot. I agreed that Max is our fourth best starter since he came back from IL. I agree with you on how ridiculous the animosity towards Byrce is. So I'm not slamming you. But maybe offer our comments as opinion, and stop using terms like "obviously" and "certain"? Because you sometimes come off as more abrasive than "He Who Must Not Be Named" who annoys us all on this blog.
@JWLumley said: "Even still, pinch hitting with Michael A. Taylor against Hader was idiotic. The guy was on the team to pinch run, you carried 3 catchers, pinch hit Gomes. Just so happens that Hader bailed them out. Still doesn't mean it was one of the worst managerial decisions I can remember."
MAT: .294/.429/.647, with a 1.076 OPS.
Gomes: .223/.316/.389, with a 0.704 OPS.
How could anyone basically say, "MAT sucks, so hit SOMEONE EVEN SUCKIER MORE"? So really? One of the worst managerial decisions you can remember? Either your memory is horribly tainted, or you've lived a blessedly oblivious baseball life.
Also, as pointed out, if you want to say "Hader bailed them out" then that gives no credit for MAT working a walk when neither Robles nor Turner could. Don't need to like the guy, but unfair to give him no credit.
MAT is an AAAA outfielder. But pinch-hitting him over anyone else on the bench isn't a horrible move. It may not be the best move, but it is never a horrible move.
@Harper
List, in your opinion and in order of quality, the Nationals Managers since 2010
1. Dusty
2. Davey
3. DM
4. Matt Williams
5. Riggs
@JWLumley, when I compared MAT and Gomes, I copied MAT's career postseason stats, not his 2019 stats. So, I'm wrong. Please disregard.
For fun though, here are Gomes career postseason stats: .273/.360/.364 with a 0.724 OPS.
From 2005:
1. Dusty
2. Davy Johnson
3. Frank Robinson
4. John McLaren
. . .
87. Manny Acta
88. Dave Martinez
851: Riggleman
852: Matt Williams
@Josh A -- it's pretty hard not to have DM in third. You could arguable flip Dusty and Davey for the top spot and Williams and Riggleman for the bottom, but no one would say you were crazy. If I were picking, I'd have Dusty, Davey, DM, Riggleman, Williams because of the way Williams totally lost the clubhouse.
@Donald - Williams may have lost the clubhouse, but he didn't LEAVE the clubhouse, like James David Riggleman did. MW won manager of the year at a division title at least, what did Riggleman accomplish aside from walking out on his team? Riggs is last in my book. Dead last.
coolsny
In general
1. Davey
2. Dusty
3. Riggs
4. DM
5. Matt Williams
I think both Davey and Dusty are Hall of Famers but Dusty is a little bit of a compiler where as Davey is just a winner who gets on people's nerves. Riggs is the platonic ideal of a placeholder manager. He'll give you back what you give him. Well repected enough to get jobs after quitting. Davey RIGHT NOW has shown some clubouse flashes with the season long comeback but still has last year's miss and this years terrible start questioning if he makes teams worse long term if there are issues to overcome. Matt had a fine 2014 but once things unraveled on him he lost the clubhouse and they went south FAST
Specific to time on Nats
1. Dusty
2. Davey
4. DM
3. Riggs
5. Matt Williams
Dusty had the better teams sure but he carved out two easy seasons and two full-term playoff series. Davey was great in 2012 until he screwed Storen in the playoffs handed no bench but for some reason another closer in 2013 he had no way to survive injuries. With a full team he won just fine again but it's hard to get past Dusty. Davey is a work in progress with potential. Riggs - actually closer than you'd think with nothing as bad as what DM has, but also nothing as good. Give me something over this nuetrality. To be fair to Matt that 2015 offense with Rendon / Werth and Zimm down was as bad as pre-2011 teams but you still can't make it turn into a grabage fire.
Acta might actively sit below Matt - I think Acta made his teams worse. Frank is like Riggleman but more likeable.
After bashing Ernie Johnson earlier in the thread, I would like to also note that Charlie Slowes is incredible at his job. I've been listening to his call on Soto's double over and over. It does not get any better.
@Ric Please google "small sample size" and read the first few articles. The stats you list are next to meaningless because it's such a small sample size that they are only historical and not predictive. MAT actually regressed this year. The K's were still there, but the power was gone.
Since we're ranking managers:
1. Davey
2. Dusty
3. DM
4. Riggleman
5. Acta
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150. All the bench coaches who took over after the manager got thrown out.
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Eleventy-Seventy-five: Matt Williams (Clubhouse cancer and terrible tactician)
@Mr T I really hope Dave replaces Carpenter soon, it would make the TV so much better and we'd get nine innings of Charlie on the radio, maybe. Regardless, Charlie and Dave are awesome.
it sucks because hes pretty earnest in his love of baseball but i cant stand carpenter...what can be done about this? a shadow campaign?
also FP needs to go. its insane how bad this tandem is. there is no reason why these two have had such a long leash. and mike morse is not the answer. neither is masn dan.
Let's reconsider Dusty Baker. Great with the players. Great with the press.
BUT, it was inexcusable to put Jayson Effing Werth in the line-up for all five games against the Cubs, batting second! For the series, Werth posted a slash line of .157/.318/.540. And he wasn't in there for his defense either.
Wait, what? "Riggs is the platonic ideal..."[?!]
If you're going to go pointy-headed on us, then Riggleman is the absolute last example to cite.
You want a perfect example of someone who knew that higher truth was an abstraction? Casey Stengel--who would have platooned Plato if he had the chance.
You could look it up.
@coolsny
I have to disagree on the FP side of things. I LOVE him as a color guy. He brings some comedic relief, but also some great insights into clubhouse dynamics and small intricacies of the game. He's basically everyone's dad, terrible jokes that you love to hate, but also a little bit of wisdom.
But yeah, Dave needs to replace Bob ASAP
Other than starting Max over Stras Davey was perfect last night.
Carpenter is truly bad. Zero insights. I learn nothing from him. Corny as hell. Simply far too homerish and incapable of being honest in analysis. And just like...not a good play by play guy. The “see u later” and “ttttthe Nats! Lead by 3” is so annoying.
@Harper, while I do agree DM isn’t perfect, I disagree on a couple of your points.
1) MAT had 5 hits in his last 6 AB’s over the past week. And he’s more likely than Zimm to leg out a hit on a weakly hit ball. And honestly, Taylor put together a decent AB there.
2) Zimm didn’t get lucky, Zimm worked to a hittable pitch and turned it around. That’s pretty much exactly his career. That was a hit. And a good AB. He got a fastball up and in. Which, if you pay attention to the AB, is what he was looking for. And I see that he wanted Zimm up with someone on base. Which I get, because Zimm is a better hitter with base runners on. He actually is a pretty clutch hitter.
Those points aside, I don’t think DM is a bad manager. I think his in-game decisions are questionable at times, but I think his value has been keeping this team having fun. Keeping this team playing loose. I just get a feel that he has the clubhouse, and they show up to play for him.
We've got all offseason to rank managers... WE'RE STILL PLAYING BASEBALL
Thoughts on Corbin vs. Buehler? Seems like the anti-Max move not starting Kershaw G1.
So funny to hear some of the 'expert' opinion on whether DM is a good or terrible manager or not. FFS he had a direct hand in turning the ship around going 74-38,(after that 19-31 start) and now he is 1-0 in the post season!
I'm sure Davey has learned a lot through the experience about who he is as a manager.
As far as Nats announcers foes, Bob and FP are awesome, Charlie and Dave are awesome. No need for any changes!
"Same seats!"
*goes
While we're on the subject of MAT (at least some have been!), I agree with those who say that Gomes is a better pick there to pinch hit. That being said, I watched the video of the HBP and if you watch it very slowly, it looks to me like MAT's left hand gets hit like a millisecond before the bat gets hit.
Anybody else just watch that Jesus Luzardo performance? I seriously feel ill after seeing that. Holy god. He’s a lefty who throws 99 with a total wipe out slider.
While we're on the other subject of managers, I think DM is slightly underrated. Last year, the Nats were 4th in the 'Roster Effect Rating' (https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-disabled-list-tracker/), which is a way of quantifying the overall effect that injuries have on the quality of the team. And yet, they performed as a 90 win team by Pythag.
Some will say, 'See, that proves that DM is a bad manager! With a good manager, they would have had closer to 90 wins!' Well, how do you explain this year, where their Pythag is 95, a gap of only two from their actual wins? Did DM suddenly become so much of a better manager in Year 2 that the Pythag gap went from 8 wins to 2, or is the gap more likely the result of statistical randomness? I think the latter is a better explanation.
Ranking managers:
1. Dusty Baker
BIG GAP
2. Frank Robinson
HUGE GAP
3. Everybody else
@BXJacob, we'll have to agree to disagree about Bob Carpenter. I think he and F.P. are fantastic. When I'm watching my team's broadcast I don't want to hear too much superanalytical esoteric stuff. Bob is knowledgable, experienced, entertaining, and as objective an announcer as an unabashed homer can be, and I love the fact that he's an unabashed homer. I'd much rather hear SEE! YOU! LATER! as Charlie Slowes' invariable description of a dinger as "Swing and a long drive. Going, going, gone, good-bye." I do find it interesting how almost all announcers have a full spectrum of fans and critics. I loved Skip Carey and Ernie Johnson (the elder), but couldn't stand to listen to Vin Scully, and absolutely despise Ron Darling. But that's me. Others folks think otherwise, and that's cool.
What I DO hate about nearly all baseball broadcasts, but especially the Nationals games, is the incredibly stupid camera decisions by the director when there are runners advancing and scoring and on home runs. I've been in television production for 30 years and it's beyond my comprehension how some of these clowns keep their jobs missing so much critical action and showing these cookie-cutter home run sequences ad nauseum. If I ran the show at MASN the first director that missed a play at second base of a batter trying to stretch a single to a double in order to show a guy trotting across home plate that everybody in twelve universes knows is scoring would be skinned. But they do that crap all the time. There seems to be some stupid rule that some idiot made sometime back in the dark ages that every run scoring just HAS to be shown, even if it means missing much more important and compelling action elsewhere on the field. It's dumber than dumb.
Just look at the Soto hit. The director cut away from the real pertinent action on the field to show both Stevenson and Rendon crossing the plate. EVERYBODY IN THE WORLD KNEW THEY WERE SCORING, and I guarantee you maybe ten people maximum in the stadium were watching Rendon running across the plate. The play was happening between second and third and all of us at the ballpark were watching it unfold. The poor home viewer missed it until just before Soto was tagged out. It happens that way all the time and IT IS STUPID!!!!!!!!
OK. Rant done. See you Thursday night. GO NATS. BEAT LA.
Charlie and Dave are perhaps the best MLB radio team out there. We are truly spoiled.
Use the MLB app to sample the others. The Giants broadcast is good, but few others measure up. Charlie Slowes is a kid from the Bronx... thankfully we have him here, and somehow the Yankees continue to pay John Sterling to be intolerable.
I also watched the Soto hit reply with Charlie's call about 20 times. So friggin awesome.
But please, people... bite your collective tongues before talking crazy about anyone being worse than Joe Buck and Tim McCarver. Ron Darling is quality behind the mic, despite his Mets fandom. Bob Carpenter's HR call is tired and lame, but he's a reasonable professional. FP is fun. Ernie Johnson is out of his depth with a baseball broadcast. Fine. But Joe Buck's voice is an offense that cries out to heaven for vengeance. He doesn't talk; he bleats.
DM did not start Zim, when maybe ALL his predecessors would have. That alone is progress.
Re tomorrow... Corbin is a good matchup against LA, perhaps the Nats' best option vs those dangerous lefties. I think the Nats match up better against the Dodgers than they do with either the Braves or the Cardinals.
I would not be surprised if Anibal has an especially short leash, if/when he pitches... he has not fared well vs the Dodgers this year.
Crazy thought... there was some discussion here about going with the hot hand. Given that, it would be tempting to start Gerardo Parra against Walker Buehler.
Carpenter is horrible and I really think FP could be better if he was paired with someone good who wasn't such a stick in the mud. If you listen to Dave and FP do a game, you notice how Dave tries to set FP up, which is what a good play by play guy does. Bob almost acts like a radio announcer on TV. I mean, I don't need you to tell me what happened, I can see it with my own eyes. I think his homerun call is good, not as good as Duane Kuiper of the Giants, but Kuiper and Krukow are the absolute best TV announcers in baseball. Insightful, funny and while it's apparent they root for the Giants, they're not complete homers. Bob Carpenter reminds me of Cotton from Dodgeball, just your basic generic announcer from the 80's, complete with a part and aqua-net in his hair. I guess it could be worse, just watch a Barves game with their announcers, but man it could be so much better with a simple fix.
@JW, OTH the MASN Orioles announcers are so bad they make Carpenter sound like Vin Scully.
@JWLumleuy said: "Ric Please google "small sample size" and read the first few articles. The stats you list are next to meaningless because it's such a small sample size that they are only historical and not predictive. MAT actually regressed this year. The K's were still there, but the power was gone."
Come on JW. I specifically said that it was a ridiculously small sample size. So no need for a flippant "google small sample size and read the first few articles." RIF. Reading is fundamental, my friend.
MAT actually regressed this year? Ten HRs total, more than last year in less ABs. BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ all higher this year. Not sure what your definition of regression is. Please google "regression" and read the first few articles.
I jest, JW. But back to the main point: if you think pinch-hitting MAT over Gomes is "one of the worst managerial decisions [you] can remember", that's just ridiculous. More ridiculous than MAT's small postseason stats sample size. :)
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