Nationals Baseball: Last Monday before it becomes reality

Monday, October 21, 2019

Last Monday before it becomes reality

The Nats are in the World Series and you'll see it tomorrow.  Tomorrow!  About 34 short hours from now.

But the beat goes on for me.  You can, and should, check out the Post for a myriad of WS coverage. Over here you'll mostly hear me complain about how I can't state a fact (the Astros are better) which out getting jumped on. It's true! It's also true the Dodgers were better. Better doesn't matter much in short series. What does it mean for the Astros odds? 60/40 favorites? 55/45? Less? It's not that big a deal.

Who's hot

Rendon .417 / .529 / .500 in NLCS (.375 / .465 / .594 in playoffs)

Kendrick .333 / .412 / .600  (.289 / .341 / .474)

Sanchez / Max / Stras 0.00 ERA, highest WHIP 1.00 (Stras)  (all ERAs under 2.00 WHIPs under 1.00 for playoffs)

Doolitte 4IP 3H, 0BB (0.55 WHIP, 2.45 ERA for playoffs)

The Nats success hasn't been the offense which has been made effective enoughby some timely hits by guys like Zimm, Robles, and Gomes and the carrying efforts for Rendon and Kendrick.  The pitching is what really got the Nats this far (I know big surprise) which Stras, Scherzer, and surprising Sanchez being nearly unhittable in the post-season helping to avoid a lot of bullpen use.  Doolittle, being one of the two used, has been excellent and Rainey, while not on here has been perfect in his last 3 outings.


Altuve .348 / .444 / .652  (.349 / .417 / .767)

Cole 0.00 ERA, 4 H (5BB) in 7 inning starts (0.40 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 22.2 IP for playoffs)

Will Harris 0.00 ERA, 0.545 WHIP in 3.2 IP (0.00, 0.71)

Joe Smith 0.818 WHIP in 3.2 IP in CS, (1.69, 0.56 WHIP for playoffs)

The Astros have been similar. The hitting has mostly been well timed homers and the pitching has carried the team. Cole and Verlander (who had an errant inning) have paved the way to the Astros pen which has been good enough to take the team to the finish line.  Harris and Smith have especially been good but Osuna and Peacock were also solid


Who's Not

Juan Soto .188 / .235 / .250 (.237 / .326 / .421)

Corbin (7.43, 1.58)

The Nats don't really have a ton of players slumping but who is slumping is pretty key. Soto who is one of two stars who makes the offense go has not had a great post-season, this has been hidden by a couple of big hits but his slump is making timely hits necessary. Corbin's starts have featured a lot of Ks and several innings where it looked like the wheels could come off. It'd be tempting given the current pitching status to flip him and Sanchez but I doubt they'll do it.

Robinson Chirinos .000 / .133 / .000 (.091 / .231 / .227)

Yordan Alvarez .045 / .125 / .045 (.171 / .227 / .244)

Josh Reddick .167 / .167 / .417 (.136 / .174 / .273)

Grienke 3.48 ERA, 1.355 WHIP (6.43, 1.43)

The Astros on the other hand do have a lot of slumping bats, especially if you just look at the ALCS where some guys, like Chirinos and Alvarez, just stopped hitting. Reddick hasn't hit all postseason, or season really. Lineup is deep enough to cover it but it will lead to an interesting Q on how the Astros will set up the OF in the DH less Nats park, since Alvarez and Reddick would be the choice and neither is looking good. Greinke has looked beatable every time out.



So remember when I said it doens't matter who's better, not really? Well if you were to buy into small sample sizes the Nats are coming in hotter. The Nats aren't hitting great, but the Astros have more problems. The Astros are pitching well, but the Nats are three aces ace-ing. of course you have to buy into that small sample size of the CSs here.  One of the reason you see the Astros as solid favorites is because Cole and Verlander were better pitchers than Strasburg and Max during the season (it's true! Look it up!) and they've pitched well in the postseason so that is carrying over, rather than being beaten by the better work in the most recent playoff series.

Anyway more when I feel like it. 

26 comments:

G Cracka X said...

Cole and Verlander are indeed better than Scherzer and Stras. Greinke and Corbin are essentially a wash. So Nats really only have a SP advantage with the 4th spot.

Not sure why its controversial to say 'The Astros are better'. I mean, its just a fact.

Interestingly, 538 has the series at 60/40 Astros, but FG has it basically at 72/28. That's a big disagreement in the odds! It definitely FEELS more like 72/28, but who knows?

Since the Nats aren't expected to win, the pressure is off. Enjoy the World Series, and Let's Go Nats!!

World Series tickets are crazy expensive, so I'm choosing instead to go to the Nats Park watch party for Game 2 (Game 1 could be rainy here).

G Cracka X said...

Uh oh. Nats may not be able to wear Navy Blue in Gs 1 and 2:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/10/21/astros-could-force-nationals-ditch-their-navy-blue-uniforms-world-series/

Nats are 7-0 in Navy Blue this postseason. PANIC TIME! (kidding)

Sheriff69 said...

I agree I'd say Astros are about 65/35 favorites. So it's not like the nationals can't win. They just need to play at their absolute peak and hope that the Astros don't play to their absolute peak. As mentioned, it's just fun to have them playing in the world series!

Sheriff69 said...

I'm not subscribed so I can't read the article. What's it say?

billyhacker said...

Post had a fun story of Long doing batting practice with Soto after midnight and Soto having an aha moment. He had two hits and two line drive outs the next day, the closeout game. I am willing to use that for optimism. If Soto is still slumping for WS, I don't see how they win. I think they mostly pitch around him like all the other teams have, but Astros don't have a single intentional walk all year.

billyhacker said...

Astros can choose to wear same blue for home games and that would block Nats from using it. It also says there is no indication Astros will do that.

PotomacFan said...

@billyhacker: I think a lot of the Nats will slump against Verlander and Cole. And hopefully, the Astros will slump against Scherzer and Strasburg. The key will be hitting Greinke, the nameless fourth starter, and the Astros bullpen.

I wanted to play Houston, not the NYY, even though I think the Nats would have had a better chance to win against NYY. Think of the future HOFers that will be on the field: Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer are all in. Altuve is close if not already in. Bregman is getting there. If Strasburg stays healthy, he's still got a shot. Soto has the skills. Compare to the Yankees: Sabathia (injured) is in. Stanton, if he stays healthy and hits 500 home runs. That's it, unless Severino or Judge produce for a lot more years. Or maybe Gleyber Torres.

Kenny B. said...

I will do my very best to just enjoy the series and the fact that champion-caliber October baseball is coming to the capital. I will try to remember every pitch is a gift and to remember this amazing season regardless of the outcome of the World Series.

But really, I'm not sure I'm being honest with myself here. I'm nervous and it makes no sense, since I'm not actually expected to perform.

Sports fandom is so weird.

Sammy Kent said...

I understand why Washington is such an underdog. Houston has a rotation that can be as good as Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin. They specialize in small ball, hitting for average, and moving the line. They have a better bullpen....as does everybody else in MLB. The recipe for Nationals success remains the same: Get seven innings out of the starters, and score some frickin' runs.

If by some wonderful twist of fate we win both games in Houston, I would start Sanchez in game 4 to give Max and Stras their regular rest and try to wrap up the series in Game 5 or 6 at the worst. I think using Anibal (who is very capable of winning his start. He's pitching better than Corbin.) to keep the two big guns on regular rest is a better strategy than trying to pitch Max on short rest in Game 4 to make sure he's available for Game 7 on VERY short rest. It's better to have him win games 1 and 5 than to win game 1 and lose 4 and 7 because he's gassed.

BxJaycobb said...

I believe this Astros team is the best baseball team since the late 90s Yankees dynasty. I think beating them would be a Herculean task—-even the Dodgers would have had a tough time. The Nats have a chance but they have to do it all. Our big hitters have to hit, our aces have to be incredible, our bullpen has to be at least decent and not blow leads, and we have to have a few unlikely heroes. A lot to ask, but it’s possible. I very much hope Davey M DHs Cabrera and not Adams.....as I fear he might do. I do think to win this series Scherzer has to absolutely dominate....its a RHH heavy lineup, which he is best suited to mow down. (Corbin is less well suited and i worry he will have trouble....although he’s the perfect guy to bring in to whiff Alvarez I’ll tell you that much.) Honestly....I’m hoping that a few of our boys enjoy incredible performances and they make it a fun tight series. Winning is what you hope for....and in the moment if they lose it is what we’ll focus on, but really what I want is to shut up the folks saying this is going to be a sweep/Nats have no business being here etc.

Anonymous said...

Houston does not have a small-ball lineup. Half of them have an OPS at or above .900 this season. Like, seriously, Altuve was one of their more mediocre hitters this year. They mash.

coolsny said...

This World Series is going to be awesome.

Don't know why the Nats' underdog status is such a talking point, or sticking point it seems. The Astros are the best team in baseball. Nats are the underdog. There is nothing wrong with being David in a David vs Goliath situation...besides, when has a DC sports team ever won anything as a presumptive favorite in the 21st century? Nats fans should be relishing in our underdog status.

Astros are the best constructed team in baseball, but that doesn't mean they will be the best team in 7 games at the end of October in the year 2019. Anything can happen.

PS Has Corbin ever faced any of these guys in the Astros lineup? I am very curious how he will fare against them.

billyhacker said...

Definitely! Everyone will slump against the best. Soto was slumping against the Cardinal's worst. If that is addressed now, maybe he can luck into something. Before, he was missing so big he didnt even foul off. He wasn't even seeing a lot of pitches. Whichever lineup has a. 200 batting average has a chance of winning. I think that would have beaten both Yanks and strös in ALCS.

Anonymous said...

*Checks notes and raises hand*

I thought the Dodgers were the best team in baseball?

*checks notes again*

Oh that's right, narratives needed to get clicks.

Collin said...

I’m a longtime reader of your blogs by various titles and subtitles. So are some of my buddies. You’ve given us hours of things to debate at bars and in the park. For us, your writing is as much a part of this trip to the WS as anything else. Thank you.

Sheriff69 said...

That's weird I wonder why it matters what the Astros wear at home.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Just don't get swept. That's all I care about. If this series goes 5 or 6 games and the Nats lose, I'll be content. Don't let the "Nats have no business being here" narrative win in the end. Let it be a hard fought series and if they win, then great. If not, oh well the ride was awesome even if it wasn't perfect.

Mr. T said...

Worth noting re: Soto that the Astros don't have a LOOGY or any other lefty in their bullpen. Soto looked bad against Kolarek and Miller, and that probably carried over.

SM said...

No David vs Goliath references, please.

First of all, David won. In every re-telling David slays the big galoot again and again. If the Nats are David, it suggests they are sure-fire champions. The Nats aren't David.

And unless the Astros have a collective pituitary tumour, they're not Goliath.

grog said...

This whole underdog thing is kinda misleading. Boswell points out (and I know there are some here who don't think much of him, a point this DC native doesn't get) in his column today:

Since May 23, the Astros, including the postseason, are 81-41 and have scored 691 runs with a plus-182 run differential. The Nats are 82-40 and have scored 700 runs with a plus-203 run differential. I don’t see one exceptional, versatile, mash-or-manufacture offense; I see two multifaceted mirror images.

That fact they managed that with the dumpster fire of a bullpen is remarkable.

I'm going into the Series like I did going in to the playoffs "Inner Peace Thru Lowered Expectations". Glad they're there. Glad I get to see it. Hope they win. And if they lose, I hope it's not like previous playoff series losses.

DezoPenguin said...

Like my father always pointed out, David brought a ranged weapon with which he was used to killing wolves and lions to a fight against a guy using only hand-to-hand weapons. The smart money was on the shepherd.

That aside, yeah. The Astros' top three starters are as good or better than the Nats' top three, the only team in baseball that can say that with a straight face. Their bullpen is significantly better. Their lineup is slightly better (1st to 8th in team wRC+, 3rd to 6th in runs scored, 1st to 6th in wOBA). They have home-field advantage. This shouldn't be controversial. They're more likely to win. But "more likely" isn't "certain," and all that really matters is which can be the first to win four games from here on out. So let's be happy with the best season in franchise history, and cheer for it to be even better by the time it's over, instead of being like all those Yankees fans on social media who are screaming to fire Boone and Cashman and throw out all the players based on a six-game sample size!

Mr. T said...

@grog, Boswell wrote a piece the other day about how the Nats making the World Series represents the triumph of old school baseball chutzpah over modern stat-nerd analytics. On the scale from Actual Analysis to Joe Morgan, he's pretty close to Joe Morgan.

SM said...

Boswell once aspired to become another Roger Angell. Imagine that.

PotomacFan said...

Nationals Pitching Line-Up (IMHO):

Tues. Oct. 22. Game 1. Scherzer
Wed. Oct. 23. Game 2. Strasburg
Thurs. Oct. 24. No game
Fri. Oct. 25. Game 3. Corbin. Scherzer avail. for one inning.
Sat. Oct. 26. Game 4. Sanchez. Strasburg avail. for one inning
Sun. Oct. 27. Game 5. Scherzer. Corbin avail. for one inning.
Mon. Oct. 28. No game.
Tues. Oct. 29. Strasburg. Sanchez avail. Maybe Scherzer.
Wed. Oct. 30. Corbin. Everyone except Strasburg avail.

Matt said...

In case you're wondering whether or not you should hate the Astros organization:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/10/22/houston-astros-roberto-osuna-suspension

Anonymous said...

So the team that has a worse record and smaller run differential since May 23, (when the Nationals got healthy) while playing most of their games against the Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Royals, Tigers, White Sox, Orioles and Blue Jays, who got taken to 5 games by the Rays and who scored less runs and had a higher ERA than the Yankee's but more timely (lucky) hitting is monstrously favored over the team that is able to run out their best players in a short series where they beat a hot Brewers team (closed the season at 18-2) the pre-ordained Dodgers and dominated what had been a solid Cardinals team... uh OK...

Cole is better yes... He's not going 9 innings. This is going to be a 3-2 game, probably won by the Astros, but not a lock.

Stephen is going to beat Justin. There is no question in my mind. Justin has been shaky. Stephen is going to go 7 strong. Nationals 4 Astros 1.

Then it comes back to DC. Patrick makes up for his shaky begining to the playoffs and beats Greinke 6-5.

Sanchez shuts down a team that struggles with off speed and breaking balls, Nationals win 7-1 in a bullpen game for Astros.

Cole shuts out the Nationals and we go back to Houston with Nat's up 3-2.

Two chances to knock them off.

gonna be awesome.