Nationals Baseball: Win two

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Win two

Objectively it's hard to find anything but positives from last night. The Nats got their 6 from Strasburg and they got a blow out which allowed them to use their unimportant relief arms. They beat Verlander - who's good (though oddly not so much in the World Series) and everyone it seemed got into the swing of things. What can you say? Too bad the outburst wasn't earlier to save Stras 20 pitches?  Uh oh, they Cardinal'd scoring all those runs and now it'll shut off?

I can still make you mad though because I most want to talk about luck right now, which other than Juan Soto being great is the foremost thing on my mind. There are two distinct moments that stuck out to me last night. One was the use of Stras in the 6th and Verlander in the 7th.  All in all they were in pretty similar situations up around 100 pitches, getting outs but not dominating. Both managers made a move to stick with them. Both guys didn't do great. But Stras worked out of his jam, Verlander gave up a homer.  The decision by Davey was no better than the decision by Hinch but one worked and one didn't. And that's the way it's been all playoffs long. Things have broke for the Nationals when they needed to.  Not that things have always broken for the Nats this offseason and never for another team. Just last night Turner misplayed a ball same as Bregman. But Turner did it with no one on and two out. All it did was put someone on first. Bregman did it with the bases loaded and two outs (and a guy who shouldn't have been out there on the mound trying to escape). Same sort of error. One is a footnote the other decides the game because of nothing more than timing.

But this is baseball. That brings me to the other point in the game.  Strasburg's 5th.  Three guys started the inning with three hard hit ground balls. Two get gloved and are outs. One gets through for a hit. Nothing describes baseball better than this. You do what you can and then you hope it works out and usually it doesn't. But sometimes it does and it's glorious. Eaton in the 1st inning sees the shift and tries to hit it to the left side. He does! He maximizes his chances but there is still like a 25% chance its going to go to the one guy there and a 25% he'll knock it foul. But no, it gets in between the defender and the line and he's on. Did all he could. Worked out for him. Baseball. Turner reaches out in the 5th just to get bat on ball and put it into right. Drops it in for a hit. Eaton follows with a pretty good hit straight up the middle - into the shift, double play.  Baseball

Lucky isn't bad. It's good. And you can't be bad and lucky or mediocre and lucky and win a World Series* You have to be lucky and good. The Nats are good. Suzuki doesn't miss that high flat fastball.  Strasburg dominates Chirinos, Reddick, and the struggling Correa shortening that lineup. The Nats are very good. They have been for a long time. They are finally getting lucky, not here and there, but when it counts the most.


I guess I can tell you about my formative playoff series - the Yankees 96 title run. In that the Braves took a 2-0 lead winning both in New York. They didn't just beat the Yankees, they demoralized them.  They blew the doors off them in G1 with a young phenom doing something incredible (in that case Andruw Jones going deep twice on two pitches) and then they shut them down completely - a 4-0 shut out. They did not cruise through the CS like the Nats, but they did come back from a 3-1 deficit outscoring the Cardinals 32-1 in the final three games (14-0 and 15-0 shut outs!) and had won 5 in a row by a score of 48-2! Dominance only holds until your next game. The Braves weren't cocky. They didn't think they had it won. But being humble and realistic is not going to help you. This is baseball.  Do what you can. Hope it works out for you.

Two more times.


*Ok well you can if you sneak into the playoffs like say... the 73 Mets or something, but the Nats are not that.

55 comments:

G Cracka X said...

Cecil Fielder played for the Yankees??? Totally did not know that. I only remember him (vaguely) as a Tiger

Jimmy said...

If I'm Davey I'm taking tmw at all costs, all hands on deck emergency all stops pullout even if it means burning Corbin for Saturday. We can't let them back in. I'd trade a win tmw for a loss Saturday as it means the Astros would be forced into a scenario of everyone pitching on short rest. It's a no brainer for me. For me Friday is the biggest game of the series(till the next one anyway lol).

G Cracka X said...

Any thoughts on the series shifting to Washington? Do the Nats get an extra boost due to NL rules? Meaning, is their lineup hurt less?

As an aside, I like the no-DH rules. People complain about pitcher hitting, but I like the extra strategy/tactics that an NL game requires of managers.

G Cracka X said...

@Jimmy if you pitch Corbin in relief in G3, what's the plan for G4? I suppose you could hope for a rainout, so Scherzer could start G4. Otherwise, you'd have to either go Scherz on short rest, or Joe Ross.

coolsny said...

Great, another win. Damnit, if the Nats do pull this thing out Rizzo will never fix the bullpen!

Kevin Rusch said...

"As an aside, I like the no-DH rules." -- me too. Given the push for a universal DH, I saw a compromise that I could live with: Just have a DH for the starting pitcher. (or one pitcher you name beforehand if you're using an opener) Once he's out of the game, you go back to having to hit. That way the bench still matters, the patterns of using relievers matters, and deciding when to pull the starter matters.

Josh said...

@Kevin I could live with that too. Add a 26th man to the roster, treat the pitcher and DH as two halves of the same player. Take one out and you have to replace the other in the next half inning.
It would eliminate probably the most crucial managerial decision: pulling a starter who's rolling because you need offense. But it would preserve late game decisions.

cass said...

Baseball is a game where everyone must play offense and defense. Defining feature of the game. DH is an abomination that should be removed from the American League and MILB. Period. Maybe they'll go universal DH for money but don't pretend it's about anything else.

Let's hope they can win two out of the next three playing real baseball in DC. But mostly let's just go 1-0 tomorrow and figure out the rest later.

Jimmy said...

Cracka-
I go Ross, it's shaping up to be a crappy rain bp day anyway. Anything can happen with Cole on short rest, if we take an early lead I think I empty the tank all hands on deck like it's game 7. I do not want to go back to Houston. This Astros team is to good to keep giving them bites of the apple and chances eventually their luck will turn and these balls will find holes.

Bryan said...

Up 2-0. Benefit Nats.

Astros offense benefits from playing in MM park. At least a couple of their hitters do not do nearly as well on the road. Benefit Nats.

No DH. Benefit Nats.

You've got a team issuing IBB for the first time all year. Benefit Nats.

Go get game 3, fellas!

JWLumley said...

I wonder how much park is going to affect this series. The Astros rely on dingerz a lot more than the Nats to score runs. Given the colder temperatures and possible rain, Nats park is going to play big. I don't expect to see nearly as many homeruns as we've seen thus far. Regardless, if the Nats can score early in game 3 it puts a ton of pressure on the Astros and they've shown, well at least Bregman has shown, that they'll crack under the pressure.

Finally, with regards to Corbin, I think it's more likely that we see Scherzer in game 3 because Friday would be his throw day if he's going to pitch Sunday. He could easily give them an inning and start game 5 if needed. I don't know why the Nats would use Corbin unless the weather points to game 4 getting rained out.

Jimmy said...

Didn't even think of that JW. I guess what I'm thinking is Sanchez going 4 and getting in trouble with a high pitch count and us having to bridge to Doo and Hudson in a game we are winning or tied or down by 1-2.

mike k said...

@ Harper - I'm usually 100% on board with luck getting no respect in baseball games, but c'mon man I think you're overdoing it just a little bit. Maybe not so much with hitting for the first 15 innings of the series, but yes with the pitchers. Verlander had more pitches going into the 7th than Strasburg had going into the 6th. Also, while Verlander was dominant innings 1-4 (after the first two runs), he was a little shaky innings 5-6. Honestly I was surprised he was put out there in the 7th. Admittedly most of the time I'm surprised by something it ends up working out anyway, but this time it didn't. Strasburg by contrast had a pretty calm 5th.

@ JW (or anyone else) - I'm a little surprised we aren't seeing Corbin game 3, despite his inning pitched in game 1. Hopefully it doesn't become an issue game 7......anyway do you think the reason why we're seeing Sanchez instead is partially because Davey knows Scherzer is available out of the pen game 3 and not game 4, so he'd rather go with Sanchez in that game? It makes a little sense!

@ no one - I think an underrated storyline these first two games has been the superior bullpen management of Davey over Hinch. I'm not referring to *who* they are using, but how. Every time Davey has had a reliever in the game, except for Doolittle in the 9th, there was another reliever ready or almost ready to go. When Rainey got into trouble, Hudson bailed him out. When Hudson got into trouble, Doolittle bailed him out. Rainey was warming up yesterday in case Rodney got into trouble. Nats don't win game 1 if Hudson *starts* warming up when Rainey gets into trouble; same with Doolittle and Hudson. By contrast, Pressly was out there on his own. When he got into trouble, only then did Hinch start warming someone up. That potentially cost him a couple of runs. If it's 4-2 instead of 8-2 after the top of the 7th, things look a lot different. At the very least Davey has to go to Hudson/Doolittle again.

W. Patterson said...

Everybody's talking strategy, DH, IBBs, etc.

I want to know how Buck's doing. I turn the volume down and have my hearing aids out so I can't hear anything but a constant drone. Doesn't he ever shut up?

Anyway, let's go 1-0 on Friday.

Harper said...

GCX _ Cecil was a great Yankee! Lost most of his power at the end but still could be effective at the plate.

On DH normally helps out the NL team but Astros haven't been hitting and culling one of these guys from the line-up won't hurt that much. Plus it forces the Nats into potential PHing situations which they don't want. I think it helps the Nats but not as much as it may for another NL team against a typical AL team.

Jimmy - I think Corbin/Hudson/Doo use as much as possible as fine. I wouldnt all in it in a Use Stras and Max kind of way

mike k - go back and watch Stras' 5th. It may have been calm but it was a hard hit GB, A very hard hit GB, another very hard hit GB and a hard hit long fly.

Hinch very much messed up yesterday. Pressley had also had a bad playoffs in general and maybe you do get him work (he was good in the regular season) but in a do-or-die situation against the heart of the Nats lineup is not that time. It's time for your best guy.

coolsny said...

At this point a sweep may be in the Astros' best interest - no leads means no reason to bring in Domestic Offender #1 and have his past discussed by Joe Fuck as he pitches in front of 14 million viewers.

World Series is great and all but maybe avoiding the PR campaign of "Houston Wins WS On the Backs of Abused Women" is better?

Just a thought for Luhnow and Co., maybe they should mail it in the rest of the series.

Cautiously Pessimistic said...

Is anyone else completely irked by how far up the Astros' butts Buck and Smoltz are? Like they treat the Nationals as a bunch of schmucks who don't deserve to be facing off against "one of the best teams in baseball history" (even though they were only the second best team in the league this year...). Like the number of factual errors they commit about the Nats is astounding (Zimm drafted as an Expo, Kendrick being renamed Hendricks, mixing up MAT and Robles, the list goes on). They're a microcosm of baseball as a whole not giving the Nats the respect they deserve.

But I'm just a long-suffering bitter, cynical fan, so what do I know

Sammy Kent said...

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/fox-butchers-gerardo-parra-baby-shark-song/520226

FOX embarrassed itself on Wednesday night by playing the wrong version of the “Baby Shark” song used by Gerardo Parra during his at-bats.

BxJaycobb said...

Also. Based purely on who is hitting the ball hard, the Astros are out-hitting the Nats and getting unlucky. The Nats are getting lucky. See below. And that doesn’t even get into sequencing and RISP hitting which can’t be expected to continue (but might!) All I’m saying is that when there is a talent gap like this, this REALLY isn’t over at 2-0. Anyway....here are the numbers re the luck section:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27916163/why-astros-win-world-series-why

BxJaycobb said...

I really don’t think that Smoltz and Buck are crazy biased about the Astros. This feels like a “looking at the broadcast through insecure Nats fan glasses” situation to me. They are appropriately in awe of the Astros talent, which is frankly awesome. They have the 2nd highest wRC+ for a lineup (126) since the Murderers Row Yankees. They SHOULD be discussing the Astros as a dominant force. And when discussing the Nats and Astros pitching it’s always in terms of how incredible both sides are.

BxJaycobb said...

@Harper. Do you think there is any possibility this Taubman stuff (and to a lesser extent, the Springer not running stuff) may be affecting the Astros on field play/tightness? Normally I would say no, but given the amount of media at the WS.....they literally might be being asked especially about the Taubman stuff like constantly. I think it probably doesn’t have anything to do with their play. But it’s also true the Nats have no off field distractions and Astros do.

JWLumley said...

Am I the only one who doesn't understand the Taubman story? I mean the guy blew the save in the 9th, why would you be glad your team traded for him? It seems more likely that the guy was being sarcastic, but it doesn't look good when the Assistant GM is talking shit about one of the players. Of course, it looks even worse when it sounds like he's using that player to talk shit to female reporters. Personally, I think that this country's domestic abuser laws have failed us. This guy should be in jail, we shouldn't be trying him in the court of public opinion. Either he's guilty, in which case he deserves a nice long sentence, or he's not in which case he should be exonerated. Employers are woefully incompetent to carry these things out. Everyone either becomes guilty until proven innocent or gets a free pass, they just aren't equipped to hand out justice.

goodman.dl said...

JWLumley: by Most accounts, the Taubman story seems to have not had much to do with Osuna, so much as it was about Taubman trolling the female reporters (one of whom was wearing a Purple Bracelet for Domestic Violence Awareness. He meant to be heard. Not sure if he was drunk, but it mostly seems to be a case of Jerk-guy acts like Jerk.

grog said...

I'm usually neutral on the Buck/Smoltz booth work but yeah, there's more than a hint of Astros Fan Boys stuff going on. That's made up for Rodriguez, Papi and Thomas talking about Soto in the pregame show.

I'm also not one to normally get worked up over how the umps call balls/strikes but Porter and Eddings were mediocre in the first two games. I feel these things balance out in the long run, ie., a season, but I found myself agreeing with the Astros when they were clearly upset at the calls.

I'm constantly amazed at how well the umps do making calls in the fields but computer-called balls/strikes can't come soon enough.

JWLumley said...

@goodman That makes more sense. Maybe he can be on the cover of the next Summer's Eve box with Bregman.

@greg These playoffs have been an infomercial for robot umps. I really felt like Strasburg was getting squeezed all night and Eddings zone was inconsistent for Verlander. Still would've preferred to be Verlander instead of Strasburg, but robot umps can't get here soon enough.

Jimmy said...

I just think Buck doesn't care. He's not offensive to me at all, his voice doesn't grate and I'm able to zone it out. Very rarely is a broadcast informative in anyway best I can hope for is I don't actively hate the sound of the guys/gals in the booth.

Mr. T said...

@JW, Yeah exactly. Why would Taubman be excited for his player, when he just blew the save? Because that's not why he said it. He said it because he saw the reporters walking by, and decided to be a dick to them. He thought he was being funny.

Jay said...

I don't buy the Nats got lucky angle. Suzuki crushed that home run before any of Bregman's issues. The infield single was an infield single. Even if Bregman fields it cleanly he likely doesn't get an out. The second Bregman misplay when he threw wide of first Zim was already safe. Granted it wasn't hard hit but that is most definitely baseball. I think it feeds into the narrative portrayed by the national media that the Nats are plucky an fun sort of like the bad news bears. The headline after game 1 against Cole was Nats steal game 1. They didn't steal it. Soto had a great game with a homer and 3 RBI. The Nats have gone 18-2 and won 8 in a row. They've now beaten Kershaw (twice), Flaherty, Cole, and Verlander. They didn't luck into that. Could they lose the next 4 and be done? Sure. Greinke is still tough. Cole and Verlander could go on 3 days rest. Sanchez and Corbin are good but definitely not Scherzer and Strasburg. We'll see. However, they've gone 84-40 since May 23. That's 76% of a full season's worth of games. That is a 110 win pace.

Anonymous said...

Houston, we have a problem here. You look tired. Lets give some big thanks to the annoying Yankees. They played them tough.

Now lets take care of Zack Greinke in game 3.

Go NATS!

coolsny said...

I think luck plays a big factor in 1 game, maybe a 3 game series, maybe even one series. But can you chalk up an 18-2 run to just lucky? I don't know

Rendonitis said...

Luck has been a part of the Nats run, but so has excellent play. And luck doesn't necessarily fluctuate from game to game. Often it covers long stretches and will revert back in future seasons. Just look at Tim Anderson's batting avg this year. Or Michael Morse after his monster year with us. We have some concerns we can put our conversation into, but I don't think dreading a change in luck is a big enough deal to put much stock into.

Dean Stockton said...

Let's try to table the griping about narratives and respect. There are at least as many games left as have been played, and so more opportunities for the Nats to show their strengths to anyone (I can't really imagine who) that might be doubting them.

Greinke can hit and steal bases, and if I were an Astro's fan I'd feel good about their chances to get one back in game 3.

Treaples69 said...

Rendon Robles and..... Soto are glove glove finalists. I formally call for harper to stop calling out soto's defense

coolsny said...

I mean I am not worried about respect, not one of *those* fans. But it is a legitimately interesting discussion to have - saw someone on twitter today talk about the Nats' luck combined with their players getting hot at exactly the right time is the reason they are up 2-0 in the WS...

I mean, correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think any team in any sport can win without their players' getting hot at "exactly the right moment."

Sports r dumb*, let's enjoy it.

*Tennis is different, as it is mano a mano and there is little variance. If you are better, you are better and it will show, in a dominating fashion.

Anonymous said...

In a game where the best get a hit 1 of 3 trips to the plate, isn't luck always going to be a large factor? I personally don't agree that Bregman screwed up the Kendrick grounder, it was hard enough hit that he couldn't slide for it and he had to range so far that reaching while running was too awkward to get it in the mitt. That throw on Zimm's swinging bunt though....

I know that Rendon had the big double in the first, but has anyone else noticed that it seems like he's pressing? Especially for a guy touted as someone who swings and misses at pitches out of the zone only 5% of the time? Saw some bad swings on fastballs above letter high and breaking stuff down. And then in the 7th, the weak FB that didn't score Robles from 3rd. Not bad like Zimm swinging at every slider diving away from him bad, but uncharacteristically not like Rendon.

Yes, i'm complaining about play after being up 2-0. It's how I cope.

Jay said...

I agree that Rendon hasn't been himself. I think the Nats haven't even played their best in this series yet. Soto was great in game 1. Rendon and Kendrick were 0-8. Last night Soto was swinging at every high fastball no matter how high. Rendon took some bad swings as did Cabrera. Anyway, hopefully they can win game 3 and really keep Houston down.

JWLumley said...

@Anon - I've noticed that Rendon has been especially unlucky with the calls he's getting at the plate and some of those calls have really changed the at bat, for example some have shifted a count from 2-1 to 1-2. Also, if the call balls, strikes, then he has to expand his zone.

As for Soto? Wow, is all I can say. I think he's improved, but I don't think he's a gold glover. That being said, perhaps this shows he's not awful. Robles should win, but I doubt he will. Not sure how Rendon could beat out Arenado, but hey Soto was nominated so anything's possible!

coolsny said...

These damn gold glove finalist lists are just driving up the price tags on our guys damnit. One more page in Boras' damn binder!

billyhacker said...

Brooksbaseball has the pitch tracker. 10, TEN strikes were called balls by the ump. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=10&day=23&year=2019&game=gid_2019_10_23_wasmlb_houmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=544931&prevGame=gid_2019_10_23_wasmlb_houmlb_1%2F&prevDate=1023&league=mlb

Rather than bias, I think there were some cross ups and location issues. Basically pitch framing was a disaster.

Verlander has four egregious strikes called Balls, but they are consistent and once he realize the ump wouldn't call them, it looks like he stopped throwing them.

I was blown away that Strasburg didn't lose his mind. I feel like I have seen him let a game get away when the ump shafted him. Here he just manned up.

mike k said...

Re: broadcaster fanboys. I actually think their gushing over the Astros is completely appropriate. This team has the 2nd highest wRC+ OF ALL TIME (Bx: not 2nd since the murderers row Yankees, but 2nd only to them. 1927 Yankees first. Two murderers row Yankees at 3rd and 4th...worse than the Astros). They also have the highest ERA+ in the MLB this year, with Cole and Verlander first and tied second, respectively. The 2019 Astros are statistically one of the best teams of all time.

People use stats to support their position, not to inform it. If someone wants to say the Nats are lucky because they got hot at the right time, they will point to a low 90s win total. If they want to say the Nats are great, they will point to 110 win pace since May 23. This is all because people suck and that's just the way it is.

Anonymous said...

Re: bad swings. How can you not mention Trea here? Swinging at sliders in the dirt like a pinata party. One at-bat i remember off the top of my head- Leading off an inning, he goes up 3-0, takes a strike, then swings at 3 ball 4s for the K (fouled one off). Arggh.

Re: DH. Isn't this clearly a plus for Nats as Alvarez is one of the only Astros that seems somewhat hot? And one of the only somewhat scary LH bats? I suppose they could stick him in RF, but I assume he's a DH because he can't field...

Bryceroni said...

I love the DH proposal that people have put forward here, it seems like a happy medium. I maintain that the DH is primarily a roster construction advantage, as it is a way to ensure a good hitter playing time that they wouldn't be able to get on a NL team. Also, it lets players get a half day off which is super useful.

On the topic of luck, teams don't win 8 straight against top teams without a combination of being really good and getting some breaks. The Astros have been unlucky as far as sequencing goes, even as the nats have outhit them in absolute terms.

Davy Martinez has gotten dragged a few times this year as a bad manager, but he deserves nothing but credit in the playoffs. I have found his decision making extremely solid, turning to his best arms every time. I'm sure part of that is the fact that he has so few reliable arms, but success is success!

Let's go out and play game 3 like an elimination game! All hands on deck!

Ric said...

@grog said: "m also not one to normally get worked up over how the umps call balls/strikes but Porter and Eddings were mediocre in the first two games. I feel these things balance out in the long run, ie., a season, but I found myself agreeing with the Astros when they were clearly upset at the calls."

According to umpire auditor, of the 17 wrong calls, 13 benefited the Astros.

https://twitter.com/UmpireAuditor/status/1187439506879705088



@JWLumley said: "Still would've preferred to be Verlander instead of Strasburg, but robot umps can't get here soon enough."

Exactly.

Sammy Kent said...

Luck is the residue of design.

All the sabermetrics in the universe cannot measure heart.

G Cracka X said...

538's Elo Rating has the two teams essentially tied in Team Rating:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

I think this is a nice balance of 'Astros are more talented; Nats are hotter'.

Fun fact: before last night's HR, Suzuki hadn't had a 'barrel' since his game-winning HR in the miracle game on September 3rd against the Mets:

https://www.theringer.com/mlb-playoffs/2019/10/24/20930021/world-series-game-2-kurt-suzuki-justin-verlander-washington-nationals-houston-astros

Harper said...

Bx - nah. They don’t seem to be being asked aubout it so I bet they can pretty easily ignore it

JWL - taubman felt that one of the reporters was too hard on Osuna and his legal issues when they signed him so that was his retaliation. Game didn’t have anything to do about it.

Sammy - will Smith hits that ball a half inch more into the barrel and you are here talking about how gutless the team was again.

A great team is playing a greater team and the great team won two. This isn’t surprising. It’s like a 20% chance without factoring anything else in. That’s a good chance. Don’t be like everyone else and treat odds like anything over 55% is it being called and over 80% would take a miracle to overcome. That’s not reading odds right

Nattydread said...

Win 3. Lets write it tonight.

DezoPenguin said...

Well, Taubman's now been fired. So in the course of 48 hours, the Astros organization managed to go from "SI has a vendetta and this is all fake news!!!" to "this guy's conduct was so egregious that we can't have him work here any more. Though to me, the guy who really needs to be fired was whomever wrote their initial public statement. Starting out with that tone of belligerence just motivated the people who broke the initial reports to defend the truth of what they said, and hey, it turned out that not only did they have plenty of witnesses but that the past history between Taubman and the reporter in question was all over the public record. I have no idea if Taubman is any good at his job or the Astros organization would have wanted to keep him if they could (I mean, I assume so, or else they wouldn't have come to his defense so aggressively), but it's the firestorm raised by their initial defense that left "show him the door" as the only outcome. Whereas if they'd taken a quiet "we're taking these allegations seriously and are investigating" response they might have (if they wanted to) ended up with an initial public response like Hinch's (good on him, by the way) and some quiet discipline for Taubman and they just move on.

But instead they decided the best way to respond was to throw gasoline on the fire, during the World Series, and hard commit to "all or nothing." I do not understand how a multi-billion-dollar business can make such a howlingly bad move.

In any event, it's over now and we can all get back to thinking about baseball. Here's hoping that Playoff Sanchez (who's really just an extension to Ever Since He Got Back From The DL Sanchez) can go at least six and the bats show up and we get a win. I'd really like the Astros to be down 3-0 and having to run out either a bullpen game or a pitcher on short rest after throwing 104 pitches against a rested Corbin, although that does leave the door open for the dreaded #narrative, which I have learned to loathe and fear in sports.

Anonymous said...

Let's go 1-0 and stay in fight. We haven't won it yet. We are still underdogs. Go NATS!

JWLumley said...

Nats still have somewhere between a 1 in 5 and 2 in 5 chance of losing this series, depending on who you listen to (538 is more optimistic, while fangraphs is less so). I'd rather be the Nats than the Astros, but those aren't great odds. They're good odds, but not great. Hope the homeplate umpiring gets better.

Kevin Rusch said...

RE Luck: sure there were some BABIP bounces, but not many. The homers in the 7th were on balls that were over the middle and belt-high. I mean, you're lucky when Verlander or any major-leaguer makes a mistake and you can take advantage, but, you know, the pitcher didn't HAVE to throw it there.

Another way of reading it - Trea got to a ball late and managed not to throw it into the bleachers. Is that luck or skill/judgement?

ALso, you don't drop 8 runs on the Astros in one inning all with luck. These guys have won games against the Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Astros, good teams all, fair and square. They have done it by being *gasp* a very good baseball team.


It's worth pointing out that if you look at the stats of the 7 relievers on the WS roster, the bullpen's ERA and WHIP are pretty much smack in the middle of the league average. That's a big improvement from "worst bullpen in baseball." Rodney, Suero, and Rainey are perfectly OK relievers. I think we can retire the "Doo and Hudson and 5 cans of gasoline" idea. Let's remember Rainey, Rodney, and Guerra have held the Best Fucking Team In History to 2 runs in 3 and a third innings. That's not great, but it's not helpless.

1-0 tonight. Then 1-0 tomorrow and we can go home.

Robot said...

OT - Anyone see the Gold Glove finalists? There are some questionable choices on that list...

Robot said...

Also, GO NATS!

JWLumley said...

Saw that Greinke throws more breaking balls than any other reliever, then saw that the Nats are one of the worst teams in baseball in exit velocity off of breaking balls. That stat makes me feel not great about tonight. Just curious, is anyone else feeling like the Nats are just finding a new way to disappoint in the most excruciating fashion possible, or am I just an eternal pessimist?

JWLumley said...

I meant to type that Greinke throws more breaking balls than other Astros starter.