Nationals Baseball: OK back to real columns

Friday, October 18, 2019

OK back to real columns

So as the Nats wait (and we wait - It's Tuesday - that's FOREVER away). There is plenty to think abou, such as...


WHO SHOULD THROW OUT THE FIRST PITCH(ES)?

I voiced my opinion (Frank's widow/family, Frank Howard, Don't Care).  I also said I think it will almost certainly be Jayson Werth for one of them. Barry suggests the 2005 team as a whole.

The thing about first pitches is it should be non-active baseball related people who mean the most to the fans. That usually corresponds to a long-time old player/coach and various playoff heroes.  Well the Nats have a problem in that they have no non-active playoff heroes because they've had no playoff success before this and with a 35 year gap in baseball in DC the players that mean a lot to fans, mean a lot to fans over 65.  There are no slam dunk obvious choices.

So instead we run through good ones. Everyone seemed to like and respect Frank and as first manager and a baseball legend he would have been perfect. Unfortunately he died earlier this year but this is why I lean in to Frank's family.  Frank Howard is basically the only obvious choice for the long-time player / coach. You could go with Walter Johnson's family but WJ last played baseball in DC in 1932 that's SO long ago. That's like before my Dad's time! (and I had an old Dad) so that's a harder sell to me.  Maybe if you did his family, Josh Gibson's family, and Frank Howard all at once?

Why does Werth make the cut? Because for the current fans he's the closest thing to a long-time beloved old player. After him it's Livan or Cordero, I guess? The pickings are really slim.

I think though that the fans are all in agreement - nothing to do with politics please.


IS THE WAIT TOO LONG? 

Neil Greenberg looks at it and comes to the same place I heard ex-players say anecdotally over the past few days.  For injured players it helps. All I can think about here is maybe Robles but he looked fine. The Nats are actually well healed. For pitchers it doesn't particularly matter other than getting them on a more usual schedule if they were off it. That's good. For hitters it can hurt timing. That's bad.

We'll see. The Nats aren't exactly a powerhouse batting team as we've talked about. More a 2 player line-up that relies on enough other guys being hot or the pitching of the other team being middling enough that the back-end professional hitters can do their job. If that line-up has its timing off and is facing the Astros aces or a rested enough Yankees pen... It could be bad.

WHO DO YOU WANT TO PLAY?

First off what the Nats really want, as we've talked about, is a long series. So root for the Yankees - at least for two games.  After that I told you why I think the Yankees are a better match-up than the Astros. Basically the Yanks weakness is their starting pitching, which matches up with the Nats strength so the Nats can hope to work the same gameplan against New York as they did the Cardinals. Aces ace, get a lead, hold on. It'll be harder with the Yankees, who even if their line-up is off will probably score 2-3-4 runs, but it's possible. The Astros, with their 3 aces, force the Nats into playing a team that mirrors their strength - with a better lineup and better pen.  They can win that series but there is no strategy at play here, no angle to give the Nats an advantage. They simply would have to outplay the Astros.

Some other considerations
- People seem to like the idea of Astros fans in the park rather than a potential deluge of Yankees fans. The latter is possible but it seems to me that the local interest level is so high that it will be a vast majority Nats fans under any circumstances
- I've noted that the long term weather patterns for NY and DC both have rain over the series (it's far off but if it held G1, G4, and G7 are possible rainouts) Rainouts stink.  Houston has a roof. On the good side is even if it is NY there are cold fall days coming up but nothing crazy. Mid 40s is probably as low as you'd see.
- while the Astros aces are great they're also not unseen by the Nats team like the Yankees pitchers are mostly.  Greinke and Cole both have spent plenty of time in the NL and Verlander has been around long enough that anyone coming from the AL on the Nats roster (Eaton, Kendrick, Dozier) have seen him a bunch of times.
- of course that also means the Houston pitchers have at least some familiarity with batting 
- if the Nats plan to run more, it's easier to run on Houston
- It didn't end up mattering in the Cardinals series but Houston is a good defense team. The Yankees are average.

42 comments:

coolsny said...

maybe Bryce should throw out the first pitch

elchupinazo said...

I came to say the same thing, invite Bryce.

PotomacFan said...

Will you cover who should be on the roster in a later post? The DH changes the dynamics. In the DH games, the Nats don't really need Parra (although they still need him in the dugout for morale purposes). It would make more sense to add another pitcher -- although that pitcher would really only be there to eat innings if the Nats are getting blown out. I see the line-up as: Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto, Hendrick, Zimmerman, Cabrera, Catcher, Robles. You could swap Zim and Cabrera, and you could swap Catcher and Robles, although I like having Robles in the 9th spot ahead of the top of the order. MAT is back-up outfielder and pinch runner. Adams is left-handed pinch hitter. Dozier is right-handed pinch hitter (although there is no lefty that you would pinch hit for) and late-inning defensive replacement if the Nats have a lead. Parra has no role in the DH games, but could be left-handed pinch hitter in non-DH games.

Ole PBN said...

I highly doubt Bryce would accept the invite - and why should he? It would be weird. Why not Davey Johnson? Or Dan Snyder dressed as a court jester and the Racing Presidents can deck him on the pitchers mound?

I much prefer the Yankees as an opponent. Good pitching almost always tops good hitting. The Yankees are not a station-to-station, small-ball type team. They rely on the long ball and what you get with that are a lot of big, long swings that result in K's. We have the pitchers to make them miss. Plus their pitching (aside from the bullpen) doesn't scare me anymore than STL's did. As Harper noted, Houston matches up much better against us, and their big 3 is a concern. Plus, I just think that group of Altuve, Bregman, Springer, Correa, etc. is October-primed and will be tough to hold down.

Could care less about whose fans "invade" Nats park. Only thing is if its NYY, I could see the ticket prices being much higher for G3, G4, and G5 than if it were HOU.

Most curious about the DH and what DM will do...

SM said...

First pitch: Youppi!

Anonymous said...

I am of the opinion that getting to the World Series is awesome. National League Champions is already so amazing that I don't need weather, exhaustion, or anything else to interrupt a great Series. Lets get Houston to close out NY tonight, so they can line up their aces. I don't think anything would be cooler for Baseball than two of the consensus best pitching staffs going head to head. Let the chips fall where they may and the team that plays better over the best of 7 series is the Champion. If it is the Nats, nothing in the sporting universe will ever be cooler than going head to head with the consensus best team and coming out on top. Go Nats!!!

W. Patterson said...

First pitch? Don't really care but Frank R's family would be pretty darned special. And I don't care who they play as whoever it is earned the right to play. Although I still can't get my head around the Astros being AL.

Other than that, and since I probably won't get a ticket to the game, I'll be looking for a pub showing the game (Alexandria, FWIW, so suggestions welcome) so I can watch, and spend a heck of a lot less on food and beer than I would at the game - and still be with like-minded fans. (Otherwise it's me, in the basement, with a couple of sleepy dogs.)

Jay said...

I like the '05 Nats. I like Frank Robinson's family. I like the idea of Ovechkin again and the Mystics again. Did anyone read Jayson Stark's article on how Bryce isn't jealous. Man does Bryce come across as an absolute jerk in that article. Anyway, enough about him.

I don't care who they play. I hate the Yankees and I really don't like the Astros. I hate the Yankees bc they are the Yankees. I hate the Astros bc they traded for a closer that was suspended at the time for domestic violence. They then had the audacity to to say that the have "a zero tolerance policy for domestic violence for current Astros players." Thus Osuna didn't qualify bc he wasn't with the Astros when he beat up his girlfriend. I hope they never win another World Series.

Anonymous said...

Jay - wasn't Osuna not convicted of the crime though? They were merely allegations leveled against him. It resulted in a plea deal, thus not an admission of guilt. Regarding how Manfred handled, MLBPA, Blue Jays/Astros management - none of it means Osuna committed a crime. Just food for thought before we go on hating an organization for something like this.

Anonymous said...

First Pitch:
1. Like Frank's Family.
2. Joint Chiefs of Staff would be about the only Washington types welcome.
3. Christopher Walken because he's Christopher Fricken Walken and he'd be a hoot, especially if he got to announce "Play Ball" or sing the National Anthem.
4. Me, cause then I'd have a ticket.



BxJaycobb said...

@Jay. ??? I read that exact article. He doesn’t come off as a jerk at all. You would have to be reading it looking for ways to find him to be a jerk. He said nothing offensive and said he was watching the games and rooting for his former teammates.

Chaos56 said...

Frank Howard
Livan Hernandez
Robinson's family

BxJaycobb said...

Also the Yankees did the exact same thing with Chapman. Both teams have a closer they acquired while his stock was down due to domestic violence.

BxJaycobb said...

I really like the idea of Walter Johnson and Josh Gibson and Frank’s family. Walter Johnson may have been a long time ago. But he’s the greatest Washington baseball player in history by so far its crazy. I think for the other game, Ovechkin.

Mr. T said...

@Anon a plea deal in which the accused had to settle seems more substantive than "mere allegations." Conviction in court requires a high standard to establish guilt--which is a very good thing. But this is workplace conduct. MLB suspends players after they're charged, they don't wait for convictions.

The Astros can sign whomever they want of course. But to put out a statement saying that their policy only applies to "current" Astros players is pretty messed up. They're basically saying they don't give a $hit about domestic violence.

Robot said...

Dusty?

Anonymous said...

I agree that Bryce did NOT come across as a jerk at all in that article. Sure, his praise for Philly was over the top, but so was his praise for DC when he was here. He had nothing but positive things to say about the current Nats and their current success.

DezoPenguin said...

Seriously, people need to get over Bryce. He was a good player for the Nats while he was here. He would have made the Nats a better team in the abstract, but 26-year-old well-above-average outfielders do not work for free. The amount of improvement he offered the Phillies (4 wins vs. Nick Williams) was a lot more than he offered the Nats (4 wins vs. 2.5 wins) and the Phillies were therefore willing to spend more money. Honestly, the only negative feelings I have about Bryce is the suspicion (based on the sudden reversal of his defensive stats for 2019) is that he spent most of 2018 dogging it in the outfield to prevent the risk of getting hurt and I don't like the idea that a guy was deliberately not playing his best.

Harper said...

@Anon - Convictions are a bad measure of guilt, especially in domestic violence cases. MLB's internal investigations are I believe to be worth something. All I can say is read the facts of the case, MLBs statement during punishment, and make your own conclusion

Anonymous said...

"Convictions are a bad measure of guilt." Aren't allegations are also a bad measure guilt, then?

So, based on allegations alone, which is a hair above "he said/she said" - that's enough to sway in the direction of guilty? Seems a bit unfair. "Innocent until proven guilty" doesn't appear to be a thing in today's world. Court of public opinion weighs heavily, and then boom: perception = reality. Therefore, he must have done it.

I'm not saying he's innocent. But I'm also not saying he's guilty, either. There's my own conclusion based on our limited knowledge - primarily because no one else, except for Osuna and her, was there that night.

Sammy Kent said...

First pitches: Frank Howard, Jayson Werth, and if needed Chad Cordero or Michael Morse.

In the ALCS I'm rooting for a game 7 that lasts 38 innings.

Sammy Kent said...

With any luck 20 years from now we'll invite Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Max Scherzer back to throw out first pitches in our tenth World Series appearance.

cass said...

If we ever face the Angels in the World Series, we need to invite Jose Guillen to throw out the first pitch. Would be even better if they had made it while Scioscia was still managing.

I really liked the Champion Mystics being there for Game 4 and EDD throwing out the first pitch and the Mystics coaching the Presidents.

blovy8 said...

Livo and Werth would be best overall for Nats fans, I think. You can make a case for Harper's whipping boy Tom Boswell, but I'm pretty sure that can't happen while he's an active columnist. Walter Johnson and Josh Gibson progeny, awesome, but polite clapping would ensue - still. that would probably be my choice.

A sleeper could be Bill Nye the Science Guy - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/25/AR2009032503559.html

cass said...

Why has no one mentioned John Lannan???

SM said...

Re: Roberto Osuna

Osuna was arrested and charged with assaulting the mother of his child when she (and the child) were visiting Toronto. The alleged victim fled to Mexico (with her child)and refused to return to Toronto to testify. The charge was then withdrawn in return for a peace bond which forbade Osuna from any contact with the alleged victim for one year.

It was an ugly story that generated much public opprobrium, equally directed toward Osuna and the Jays' organization, and almost certainly pressured the club to trade him to the Astros. (The reception he received on his return to Toronto as an Astro merely reinforced the fans' contempt.)

And as if to show that irony in baseball is dead: Osuna was suspended for 75 games; one of the minor leaguers Toronto received in return--David Paulino--had been suspended for 80 games for a performance-enhancing drug violation.



BxJaycobb said...

The number false reports/false accusations of domestic violence and sexual assault is extraordinarily small by percentage. Something like less than 5%. That combined with the facts of the case (the guy got off because his spouse fled to another country and was too terrified to testify) and the suspension by MLB following investigation qualifies as “um yeah. He did it.”

BxJaycobb said...

So no, if by “bad” you mean oftentimes inaccurate, then no, in domestic violence, the stats say allegations are not a bad measure of guilt. Theyre a pretty accurate one. That’s not to say we would convict anybody without due process of course. But Im a lawyer and im just telling you that when it comes to domestic violence, the vast majority of “allegation followed by no conviction” cases are situations where the abuse took place but the partner backed off the charges/testimony etc.

The Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew) said...

Dimitri Young, Austin Kearns, John Lannan, John Patterson, Manny Acta??

My vote is for Dimitri Young.... lol


You know, I kinda miss Lannan. He was a pretty good pitcher, he’d have made a good #4 somewhere.

Expos 1983 Blog said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jay said...

On the Harper article - all of his I love Philly, Philly is the best, I made the best decision for my family was a little asinine. Then they asked Werth and his response was pretty much, Bryce wasn't a problem. But remember that he is BRYCE HARPER. I mean, he's BRYCE HARPER. Anyway, I don't really care about Bryce not being here. I will state that all of the press coming out of Nats spring training at the beginning of the year was pretty much - we don't need Bryce. At the end of the day, Bryce did make the best decision for him and signed for the most money. That is fine.

As far as Osuna, what I remember reading at the time was that he was given one of the worst suspensions at the time. Compare the fact that Chapman (who I didn't want the Nats to sign bc of his history) got 30 games. I guess part of my problem is that Houston traded for him and then said they were had a "zero tolerance" policy for domestic violence for current Astro's players. Osuna did what he did as a Blue Jay, so it doesn't count. I agree that most domestic violence crimes are underreported. Maybe he didn't do anything wrong. However, the whole situation looked awful.

Bryceroni said...

I think it's probably too weird asking another team's active player, but I wish for Bryce.

He really signalled the end of the nationals being a joke, and the beginning of the nationals becoming contenders. The 2012 callback with the Cardinals is relevant too.

Using the same logic, werth would be a good choice too.

Anonymous said...

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W. Patterson said...

@Anonymous 3:15 - Good call. Didn't even think of Charlie's. Thank you.

Edge said...

Harper - Can we get a “Where did SSLN go?” post before the WS?

PotomacFan said...

Hey, no comments about the "awesome" work of Roberto Osuna, Astros closer (blown save in top of 9th in Game 6) and Aroldis Chapman, very well-paid Yankees closer (two run walk off home run in the bottom of the 9th). Say what you will about Sean Doolittle, but he's (almost) as effective as Osuna and Chapman, and someone I wouldn't mind having as my neighbor.

G Cracka X said...

Great stat tweet by Petriello: Nats pitching (incl. bullpen!) the most dominant performance in LCS history! (measured by OPS allowed)

https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/status/1184521549535162369

Don't expect it to be like that in the WS, but still, that was impressive!

G Cracka X said...

Fun story: so I was reading the mlb.com article about Rainey, and there's a link to Baseball Savant about pitchers who threw any pitches 100+ this season. And I'm looking at the list, and its mainly the usual suspects, and then I see Javy Guerra's name. It says that he's thrown 3 100+ MPH pitches this season.

WHAT????? Javy Guerra can touch 100??? I know that sometimes Javy can throw harder than his typical 91-93 MPH, but triple digit heat? On three separate occasions this season??

Baseball Savant is a nice resource, in that you can actually click on the qualifying pitches, and watch a video of each one. And so I watched the first video, and immediately notice my error: apparently the Padres also have a relief pitcher named Javy Guerra. Well, that explains it!

G Cracka X said...

OK, last post for the night. Its always been hard to contemplate Sean Doolittle's success, at least before he started mixing up his repertoire a bit more. I mean, I know he throws high fastballs and apparently they have 'hop', but it all sounds simplistic. Like, why doesn't everyone just do the same thing?

Here's a table that really illustrates it well: in 2019, among pitchers who threw at least 250 4-seam fastballs, only one pitcher got more rise (or 'hop') on the heater than Doo:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/pitch-movement?year=2019&team=&min=250&pitch_type=FF&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden

Josh A said...

Here is where I am at right now. I'm not saying the Nats will win, but the lack of respect the Nats are getting coming in to this series is criminal. The Astros have simply not seen pitching of this caliber, with respect to the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers. They have gotten to feast on an awful AL West this season. They're only 11-9 against the NL having been on the wrong end of a sweep to Cincy, a 1-2 record against the Pirates, and only truly dominating the Rockies. Against above .500 teams this regular season they were 33-28. Which is good, but shows that they're not this invincible force that ESPN and MLB.com think they are. Again, I am not saying the Nats win this series, but I am saying that they deserve far more respect than they've been given.

Nattydread said...

@Josh A. Shhh. Don't say anything at all. Nats play better as underdogs.

Anonymous said...

The Astros also were on the wrong end of 2 of the biggest losses against the betting line in history, losing to both the Orioles and the Tigers and I believe Verlander started both games.

Ozuna did not need a conviction to be suspended. Baseball investigated this and found enough evidence to suspend him. I don't think there is any doubt he did it, and the only reason he wasn't convicted is because the woman fled.

John Lannan famously held Barry Bonds hitless the day after he had tied Hank Aarons record.

Hoping for one more clubhouse bash...

5 hours to go