Nationals Baseball: .500 dreams vs the Nats' arch enemy

Monday, September 26, 2011

.500 dreams vs the Nats' arch enemy

The Nats took 2 of three from the dying Braves with gems from Wang and Detwiler and a stinker of a game from that bum Strasburg.  Make way for the good pitchers Stephen! Like I said the other day - this is a good problem to have - too much good pitching. But don't get ahead of yourselves just yet.  If the Nats re-sign Wang, that doesn't mean Rizzo's gamble paid off.  It'll pay off if Wang can pitch decently for the majority of next year. Detwiler has had strong finishes before (1.90 ERA in 4 Sept starts in 2009).   The Nats could have one of the best staffs in the NL next year. Could. Be excited but don't just assume it'll be great.

The Nats now stand three games away from a .500+ record (remember it's only above .500 or below, they can't hit it exactly).  You'd think facing the Marlins would be good news since they aren't very good but the Nats have historically had issues with the Marlins. 45-77 all-time v Marlins,  19-49 post 2007. There will be more than one ghost exorcized if they can get a sweep.

Over / Under challenge Update (those in italics are set):

Mike Morse :  .300 average  - OVER (.304)

Danny Espinosa :  20 homers - OVER (21)

Pudge Rodrgiuez : 1 hit. - MATCHED

Ian Desmond : 4.0 K / BB ratio - OVER (4.18)

Jayson Werth : 100 OPS+  - UNDER (99)  pending update but I think this'll hold.

Nats Offense : .700 OPS.  - UNDER (.693)

Strasburg : 18 innings pitched.  - MATCHED

John Lannan :  9 wins.  (over or match bet) - OVER(10)

Milone + Peacock + Detwiler : 5 wins - OVER (7)

Tyler Clippard - 2.00 ERA - UNDER (1.85)

Drew Storen - 39 saves.  - OVER (42)

Unless I  screwed something up the leader in the clubhouse is calindc with 8 out of 11 correct right now (and two no one could have right currently).  Only Ian Desmond (1 walk, 10Ks in last 10 games) stands in his way of the best possible outcome.  John O'Connor is in the worst shape taking the under on Danny's homers, 9 wins for Lannan, and the Under on the combined young guy win total.  Don't quit your day job to become a professional blog over/under guesser, John.


Hoo said...

Det has 10 starts with a sub 3.30 ERA in those starts. Bit better sample size than the last September run. At the very least, he's really upped his trade value and entering the Don't trade unless range. A young power lefty who could have a 3.50 ERA would be pretty solid in the middle and awesome in the back of the rotation. Pretty sure he's a leader in the 3-5 slots for next year.

Rizzo still making noises about another SP needed. He might mean Wang b/c otherwise that makes no sense. JZ, JL, SS, Ross D are your front 4 and Milone/Wang/Peacock for last spot? I'd probably go Wang with others in Minors.

Knew I should have trusted Werth to be below expectations again.

Anonymous said...

Proofread a little better por favor. Tough to understand what you're saying in the middle there.

"If the Nats re-sign Wang Rizzo's that doesn't mean his gamble paid off."

Harper said...

Hoo - Bigger sample size AND a repeated measure. Makes you believe that something around this level of success is sustainable and anything between these two time frames is just injury recovery.

He might mean Wang or he might mean trade...

anon- fixed.

Anonymous said...

September is only a slightly better gauge of measuring a club than Spring Training. But I will admit it beats the alternative.

Donald said...

Boston is apparently looking to trade for a starter for Wednesday. They're in a panic. Wonder what they'd give up to get Livo?

calindc said...

Boston better look for a pitcher for Thursday. That's assuming, of course, they can at least win a game against Baltimore.

On another note, yeah! bad Werth.

Oh, and the Nats' magic number for third place is now at 1.