Corbin's season was defined by his first two games. In those outings he gave up 15 earned runs and 6 XBH (4 homers) in 6 and a third. He walked 7 and struck out 6 and looked every bit those stats while doing it. After that he had a 21.32 ERA and spent the rest of the season playing catch-up.
But for half the season he was... fair. His next 15 starts were thrown to a 4.24 ERA. In 87 innings he walked only 24 and struck out 67, gave up some homers (14) but didn't seem lucky or unlucky by BABIP. This wasn't the pitcher the Nats wanted and not the pitcher the Nats needed, but it was a pitcher the Nats could accept. If Corbin was this for the next three seasons, some sort of version of Gio Gonzalez, that'd be ok. Eat up 6+ innings, punch the clock, go again in 5 days. That has real value especially for a rebuilding team who are going to throw some kids who either can't or you don't want to go deep.
It's also important to realize THIS might the Corbin to expect. This is the Corbin of 2016, 2017 and 2020. The 2018/9 Corbin might just be a peak/fluke combination.
Since the ASB though Corbin has regressed. Still not very lucky or unlucky by BABIP, but 13 homers in about half the innings. Is that it? Just bad luck with the homers? We'd like to believe so but the data shows someone who all year has continued a 2020 trend of giving up more flyballs and line drives. A guy who, while never a soft contact savant, has had the trouble this year keeping that number up too, cratering to under 10% the 3rd time around an order. In other words lots of FBs and LDs hit pretty hard especially in his later innings. There are going to be runs of lots of homers. You an say this run is unlucky sure, but the season? That's most likely evened out and that means a guy who is definitely homer prone.
This is made worse by the fact his Ks are down. If he strikes out guys - those are definite outs, game moves quicker and he's not seeing the third time around until the late 5th or 6th innings. But more bats on balls, more hits, all of a sudden it's the third time around in the 4th and you gotta keep him and boom.
But Corbin can't be an opener, not for this team as constructed going forward. He's gotta learn to do something different later, even if it's 9 batters of junk. Get them to put it in play and hope for outs. Because what's going on now - trying to get through the third time around with stuff that barely played the first two, is ending up in disaster.
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Well, Corbin "outperformed" yesterday. He gave up two walks, one HR, four earned runs in the first inning. Never mind the 3rd time around in the batting order. He was BAD from the very start against a pretty weak Marlins line-up.
Yeah. Corbin being so bad that he's unplayable on a contender even as a 4/5 is a terrible development, and I think this is one of the problems where the Nats have the least acceptable alternatives.
If Corbin is done done, we need to get lucky on some real long shots like Romero or Ruteledge. And those guys won't be stretched out to pitch full seasons until 2023 even in the best of scenarios. Maybe if Stras is back and we bring in a FA, and we have FA, Stras, Cavalli, Gray, Fedde... that kind of barely works. (But that depends on Stras coming back which is 50/50 at best. Ugh.)
The other similarly dramatic and surprising underperformance vs expectations is Robles possibly really being a 70 wRC+ hitter instead of league average or slightly below.
It's crazy that he's getting voted the best outfield defender in the national league by scouts and execs and his hitting has deteriorated to the point where he's still almost unplayable. Was his power in 2019 entirely driven by the juiced ball?
This year his HR/FB is 2.4%! That's the third lowest out of 200 players with 300 PAs. He also has an extreme pull tendency (49.4%, for 11th out of the same 200). It's just a really really ugly batted ball profile.
In 2019, both those tendencies were much less extreme. He pulled 45.1% for 31st out of 135 qualified hitters and his HR/FB was 11.8% (106th out of 135).
Anyway, I hope the trainers have him on a new regimen this offseason. I kind of can't believe it's come to this, but I think it's possible he doesn't stick through his rookie deal.
For Corbin, it all comes back to his breaking ball placement. When he can put that slider on the backfoot of right handed batter, he's lights out. This season, the breaking ball hasn't been placed well and his velo is in decline so batters can sit on a FB.
As for Robles, he needs to hit the cage HARD in the offseason. No two swings of his are alike. It's like he's hopelessly lost and constantly trying new approaches. He needs to lock in a simple, repeatable swing that allows him to drive the ball. We don't need homers from him, we need line drives into the gap or down the line that turn into doubles and triples. Instead, he has either an uppercut that leads to FB outs or he stabs at the ball for weak contact. Time to reach out to Anthony Rendon for some tips
Do Corbin's performances vary depending on who his catcher is? Or is he bad with every catcher?
Is Corbin’s velo down? The FG data suggests that his FB velo is about the same as 2019:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/patrick-corbin/9323/stats?position=P
I feel like that is part of the enigma with Corbin. If he’s not hurt, and doesn’t appear to have declining velo, then why the major drop off from 2019 to 2020-2021? I don’t think “World Series” mileage explains it (unlike Stras, where that seems more plausible)
There was a pretty compelling article in fangraphs a few weeks ago that argued that he had increased his extension on his slider in a way really killed its value, especially by making it easier to hitters to lay off it when it was out-of-the-zone.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-potential-fix-for-patrick-corbin/
The one possible counterpoint I recall around that discussion (I think it was in a comment either here or on that article) was that the release point data switched collection methods between 2019 and 2020 and there was a several inch adjustment for everyone. But I haven't had a chance to verify that, so I'm not sure if it's true.
I actually remember being pretty confused how Corbin was so effective in 2019 with a pitch mix that relies on so heavily on batters swinging at balls. But getting his slider back to its 2019 effectiveness seems to be the only way Corbin becomes a 1/2 again. The more realistic hope is some slight improvement across the board that lets him be an competent 4/5 even with in this diminished state.
Victor Robles is a few months older than Keiber Ruiz, Carter Kieboom, and Josiah Gray. He is almost 2 years younger than Lane Thomas. I think he'll figure it out because 2019 happened.
Robles .694 Career OPS
Kieboom .634
Thomas .708
Garcia .653
Let's chill a little and see how they all develop, Victor included.
Looks like Corbin has an xFIP of 4.33. Is there any hope based on that?
Also, Yadiel has quietly gone from unplayable to a guy who could be part of a platoon in LF. Maybe pair him with Riley there next year?
Corbin - could the ball-grippy stuff have anything to do with it? As everyone has mentioned, his velo is fine, and control isn't really to blame. But what if the curveball has lost spin rate? (and what if a drop in FB spin rate causes less tail/run and more hard contact?) Those could kinda explain things, and maybe they can be fixed. But a lefty with his velo and control should be able to figure something out to be at least decent.
Yadiel -- babip of .352 and not a lot of power suggests he's getting a little lucky. So I'd say keep him around, but I wouldn't expect this to continue.
I like Escobar, but his babip is 338, so probably some luck. But still a 90 OPS+ bat and a premium glove, and not much in the way of better options. I'd keep him for 2022 unless they go big on a long-term SS deal.
I don't think it's the lack of sticky stuff that is at the root of Corbin's problems. He had access to the sticky stuff last year and early this year, and it doesn't seem to have helped him at all. By contrast, Max lost access to the sticky stuff mid-year, and he's gotten better. I suppose that's why Max is going to the HOF and Corbin is on his way to worst Nats contract ever -- although he was terrific in the World Series as a relief pitcher.
Even if Corbin never turns it around, I’m good with the contract, because I don’t think the Nats get to the playoffs or win the World Series if Corbin signed with, say the Phillies, instead of the Nats. Now, hopefully Corbin does turn it around! For me, the more concerning contract is the Stras re-sign after the opt out. Hope he comes back healthy and can pitch well in the future for the Nats
The worst Nats contract ever is the current Stras contract, there will never be a close second
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