The Nats blew it last night. Because they are bad. Look we aren't kidding ourselves here. We don't think they can win. We're filling time in the dog days of a long season and looking at the kids only goes so far. How'd they do last night? Gray pitched well. He gets a lot of FBs which you know a couple years ago probably would have relegated him to AAAA status but now he can get away with that again. He didn't K anyone but threw a lot of strikes and only one of those balls made it over the fence so it worked out. I'd expect for now this is about the best outcome you'll see out of Gray. He won't dominate most lineups. Mason Thompson was next and he didn't look so good. Two hits, 11 strikes vs 10 balls. But he was able to dial it up when need be. A live arm and it felt like the Nats didn't have many. I don't expect success but it's a more fun lottery ticket.
The non-new guys kept being junk. That's why they needed new guys! Suero was disappointing as he's essentially solid but overworked now to the point of can't use. Offensively it was almost less interesting until Kieboom put one in the seats. You are going to play every day. Do that more. We'll update these guys every so often, maybe weekly.
So the Nats will now be bad. How bad and for how long are good questions that we don't really have a good idea about. I can say that their trades being for mostly older players suggest a quick recovery is what is being aimed at but the depth of the minor leagues doesn't quite support that. They have to hit on a lot of these to make it work out.
A quick recovery would make sense, if you don't know if you can sign Soto (not that you don't want to, but if he's going to go to FA and everyone is going to throw money at him and you don't know if you are going to be the one throwing the most) The division has not gotten away from you. The Mets are star-crossed and have a bunch of FA decisions to make (Stroman, Conforto, Baez, Syndergaard). The Braves deep pile of young guns has only created confusion as they can't get 2-3 to perform and stay healthy. The Phillies never seem to know what they are doing You have to try to get good ASAP. You have an All-Star/HoF type entering his prime for relative peanuts for three more years. Use that to your advantage. In 2022 you play the best kids all year long; Kieboom, Keibert, Garcia, Gray, Ross, Fedde. You give the questions a bunch of time; Casey, Canning, any number of relievers. You bring up Cavalli at some point. You identify the holes and address them and try to compete as soon as 2023.
But the Nats weren't that way. Prior to the 2012 and beyond window opening up they were cheap. They took the team down to the studs, got terrible play, got great draft picks and rebuilt on the backs of those. You can argue this looks different but if they were looking to contend in 2023 why not eat more salary in the trades to get back slightly better prospects? There seems to be a cross-purpose here which is get better soon and save money while you are at it. This could all be proven wrong with a big off-season signing this year, but that would be a pretty big ask for a team whose 1-2 is injured and mediocre.
Next year should be bad. If it's 73 win bad with some promise than the bad times could be brief, at least for now. Eventually it all hinges on Soto. If it's 63 win bad with little promise than it could roll right on past a deal for Soto too and the dry spell would be at least half a decade. But this is sports. Nothing lasts forever unless you want to keep throwing money at it. The Nats got almost a decade of relevance by a combination of chance and skill. You aren't going to do much better.
16 comments:
Kieboom and Garcia have been butt so far but it helps to remember they are just 23 and 21. Ruiz is 23. Even Mason Thompson is just 23.
This feels very soulless. I've missed the older Harper.
I honestly think this division is such a mess that they could compete next year and will try with a few "Rizzo-esque" signings. 1-2 rebound one year deals, one #3 pitcher, maybe a journeryman clubhouse guy and then a bunch of arms to see who lands in the BP. Aim for an 83 win team and maybe a few things go right (specifically, Stras). They could keep the roster in the low $100Ms this way, and if nothing else gets a few pieces to trade worst case next July.
I don't see the Nats going all in on any the FAs this summer, but would at least be fun to be wrong.
To compete next year seems like it would take a lot of free agents. I have been lazily thinking through the math and I see how I am wrong, but I think that to even be 0.500, need to become above average at CF, another OF, and 2nd and that's just to carry cheap but deficient performance at 3rd, SS, and 1st and development at catcher. Doable for maybe $60m if lucky.
Plus a #2 SP and three new average RP. Maybe $45M? Obviously need bench pieces and some #4/5 too. But if they are willing to spend $110m and Stras is a #2/3 could they maybe get to 80 wins? Actually competing seems unlikely while staying under tax... So they probably won't waste the money on just next year. Maybe sign one of the SS...
I get the sense that Rizzo's going to go after one of the FA shortstops, hope Kieboom gets his act together this season and if not maybe go after Bryant instead, and then sign a few "Rizzo-esque" players as Anon alluded to. That right there gives you a league average offense with:
1. Robles
2. FA SS
3. Soto
4. Bell
5. FA LF
6. Kieboom
7. Garcia
8. Ruiz/Barrera
Spring for slightly better LF or SS and you're above league average. Kieboom/Garcia start to break out would do the same.
As for pitching, I think Rizzo ends up going after someone like Robbie Ray. That gives you a rotation of:
1. Stras
2. Corbin
3/4. Gray/FA SP
5. Ross/Fedde
That gives you an above average rotation. Not domination, but above average. That leaves the real problem, which is the bullpen. I don't really see a way to fix the bullpen without spending some significant cash.
All in all, that leaves you with a team that's likely not much different from the one fielded this year: a .500 team that might luck into the playoffs, or might get hit with the injury bug and fall apart. In all fairness, much better than I thought they'd be after a massive sell off
Doing what they did this year, get FA lottery tickets and see how it goes was based on having longer term expiring contracts for important players like scherzer and trea. I don't think that Rizzo will spend for a 0.500 season as a goal for the first year after a teardown. Also if Rutledge or
Cavalli keep progressing, that could be a big help financially even as a 3/4 but I think the scouting consensus is for end of 22 (Rut) or 23 (Cav).
Seems like they'd need more than just lottery pick/re-establish value-type FAs in order to compete.
Feels increasingly like Kieboom's best case might be above average utility guy, the next two months being his chance to prove more with the Nats , so Bryant would make sense as the regular 3B. He costs a lot. Then they'd probably need whoever is cheapest among the starter SS FAs on the market this offseason (Correa on a cheater's discount? Not excited to see him come here). Then a top 3 of the rotation-type SP. Probably not going to be Max since he said he didn't want to move again, so Syndergaard?
Ideally you'd get a couple more bats for LF and DH, which seems more lottery ticket FA-type doable (Schwarber worked out well). I imagine Rizzo wants to spend money to compete next season but also that the Lerners might want to see more from non-Soto folks before going out and approaching the luxury tax again.
@Harper, that take is reasonable and I agree that it's ominous for our 2022 chances that they didn't send any cash with these deals. But Cautiously Pessimistic is right that giving up on 2022 is premature, and it will be very disappointing if that's what the Lerners decide.
And if Cavalli is ready, then you don't need the FA SP. Or you do sign one, and push Ross and Fedde to depth. Or you go big and bring Max back and take some of the pressure off the bullpen. (Though I definitely don't have Corbin as SP2 -- Corbin has been a mess this year and I'd take Gray over him in 2022 in a heartbeat).
This team (with a good FA SS, a good or better FA SP and an OK FA LFer) is as good as any in the division if:
1. Stras is mostly healthy and good (3war)
2. Corbin is a playable 4/5 (1WAR)
3. Ruiz and Gray are league average performers (2WAR each)
4. Robles, Garcia, Kieboom, Cavalli, Hernandez and Barrera average 1 WAR each (the last two off the bench).
5. The bullpen nets out around 2WAR (which is about as good as this year, a little below average. We'll probably need to get a couple FAs to get there but it won't break the bank and shouldn't be hard at all if we can get a couple of our guys to being OK and not bad, and/or if we convert Ross or Fedde.)
I mean, none of those are locks, but they aren't crazy reaches either. On their own, each seems more likely to happen than not. Combined, maybe it's a little optimistic, but not unreasonable. And each has some possible upside that might make up for getting some underperformance somewhere else.
That's a $190M payroll for a 93 win team in a weak division and a 50%+ chance at making the playoffs. Sign me up.
A reasonable take. Moreover, the team has a lot of money tied up in two very large contracts for two pitchers who are very big question marks going forward. Strasburg might come back fine but might also be awful as TOS is a lot more of a crapshoot than TJ and Matt Harvey on a five-year megacontract will be throttling this team. Corbin seems to have spontaneously forgotten how to pitch the minute the WS final ended, which makes no sense at all but there it is. Can't blame injury because he wasn't hurt. Can't blame the lack of sticky stuff because he stunk in 2020 too. Unless both of those guys return to 2019 levels, then the Nats need to add one Grade A pitcher at a minimum, and those aren't easy to come by in FA. Stroman, maybe (which helps doubly because they'd be poaching someone from the Mets), since he's a solid #2 type and if Gray and Cavalli both work out as #2-3 guys then maybe there's something there.
I like the idea of signing a FA SS simply because the class this year is stupidly deep which at the very least will help depress prices a little (2023, by contrast, is Trea, Bogaerts, and Anderson...maybe Story if he takes a pillow contract). Correa (youth) and Semien (competence) would be my preferences, maybe Baez. In a perfect world, this guy's ready to slide gracefully over to 2B as House gets ready for the majors in a few years. Story I'd only touch if he'd take a pillow contract to rebuild his value a la Semien this year, which wouldn't cripple us long-term if he flops, be useful if the team bounces back in a weak NL East, and let us flip him at the deadline if we flop and he doesn't.
Then maybe a 1-year deal on a veteran outfielder and the classic Rizzo pad-the-bullpen moves sets us up to move those guys and Bell at the deadline if necessary, but leaves the Nats as a potential competitor if the breaks fall right.
But ultimately, I think these next two months will answer the question of "Long-term or short-term rebuild?" If management thinks they can count on at least *some* of Gray, Cavalli, Ruiz, Garcia, Kieboom, and Robles, and to a lesser extent Hernandez, Thompson, Espino, and some of the other random bullpen guys, it goes a long way towards them being willing to spend on the missing parts.
*sigh* Nothing like trade deadline season to dream about roster-building and the Hot Stove. (Meanwhile, we've literally choked away 3 ninth-inning leads in our last 5 games against the Phillies, which is infuriating in the extreme. Gray did his bit, the kids on the offense did theirs, and Davey Martinez still insists on putting Wander Suero into games with runners on base, which was a meme even when Suero was healthy and good!)
You've distilled the issue to its essence perfectly, Harper: "...get better soon and save money while you are at it."
There is much that can be said about Rizzo, the Lerners, the prospects, player development, contract extensions, free agency and even why Dave Martinez doesn't get a clean shave. All extraneous.
You, Harper, are the Occam's Razor of Washington baseball.
If it's me I'd try to re-sign Harrison next season. He'll likely not be as cheap as this year, but I think the fans will like it. Plus it gives a little flexibility when filling everything else out. Maybe could sell him again after it's clear this all didn't work out.
After that, sign a SS. None of the great ones. Someone like Jose Iglesias. League average(?), has a chance to do better. Good enough to be possibly be trade bait if/when the season goes to crap.
Then sign whomever you can for 5-8 Mil on a one year in the outfield. There will be guys. Maybe even splurge a little. Marte maybe? Rosario? I dunno. I'm playing poor man's Jim Bowden right now.
Same with SP. There will be guys out there to be had for 3-8 mil. Just throw a dart. If you get lucky enough to end up with someone good, great! If not, well...it was gonna be bad anyway.
And then there's the bullpen. Sign someone that's seemingly competent? Maybe two. Rotate the cast of characters. Will Harris as closer? All that's probably just going to be bad.
Anyway, you can squint and imagine a little that some of the kids come along, Soto rakes, Bell hits more like he has of late, the FAs are just good enough and we flirt with the idea of the playoffs. But we'll likely become sellers again with a better understanding of which kids worked and those that won't.
Not to throw a fit over why a team that has already quit on the season blow a game like last night, BUT….. :)
Why wasn’t Ryne Harper used there? Seems like he would have been the better man for the save opportunity that Klobosits. I mean, that was his third career appearance, a save opportunity. Really? That shows that the Nats mindset is evaluation first, win the game second. But it also looks like poor player development to throw Gabe in there like that.
This is basically like spring training from here on out where the focus is evaluating the youngsters. That’s fine, so I’m fine with tanking the season and angling for a better draft slot. Winning 80+ games and admittedly missing the postseason might be the worst thing this team could do.
Yeah I get that we're letting the kids play to see how they do...but that doesn't mean you don't still try and win the winnable games. Not that I trust Harper either, I don't trust anybody in the bullpen, but Klob had already pitched an inning, why trot him out there again?
he only threw like 4 pitches in that first inning
The Nationals have 2 pitchers under 26 on the big league roster, Gray and Thompson.
Congrats to future Nats draft pick Kumar Rocker. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corollary-damage-kumar-rocker-the-mlb-draft-and-a-better-way-forward/
Honestly wish there were a way the Nats could trade a 20 or lower in the system-type prospect for the right to sign this guy. Or that the Mets would pull the trigger on such a deal.
I really want to thank Dr Emu for saving my marriage. My wife really treated me badly and left home for almost 3 month this got me sick and confused. Then I told my friend about how my wife has changed towards me. Then she told me to contact Dr Emu that he will help me bring back my wife and change her back to a good woman. I never believed in all this but I gave it a try. Dr Emu casted a spell of return of love on her, and my wife came back home for forgiveness and today we are happy again. If you are going through any relationship stress or you want back your Ex or Divorce husband you can contact his whatsapp +2347012841542 or email emutemple@gmail.com website: Https://emutemple.wordpress.com/
Post a Comment